Friday, March 11, 2011

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part II


Friday, March 11, 2011 | , , , , ,

We have completed our analysis to calculate EB3 to EB2 porting which is shared herein. Google analytics and 'EB3 to EB2 porting' poll on this website were used to crunch some numbers for yearly EB3 to EB2 porting. Please note as mentioned in my previous post, this site has three posts which could be of interest to individuals looking to port from EB3 to EB2 category.


Google Analytics

With Google Analytics, we looked at each of these topics and noted number of "unique visits" we had receive every day. Unique visits with direct traffic from Google search were ONLY considered. Please see table below to see number of visits. Any visits referred from other forums and websites were ignored. This way any error in the method to calculate EB3 to EB2 porting is offset by number of ignored visits from other sites. If we assume that only 70% of these individuals are eligible or would qualify to port their priority date, we can assume total monthly and subsequently total yearly EB3 to EB2 porting.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Polls

Result from EB3 to EB2 porting polls was further used to calculate distribution of yearly porting among different priority date based on poll results. This is an ongoing effort but so far we have received 115 votes; which is believed to be a good sample size to evaluate distribution of current EB3 to EB2 porting rate. Further breakdown is done to predict monthly porting between PD Jan 2006 and PD Dec 2007. This results will be of interest for current fiscal year when unused visa numbers will be available due to spillover and for next fiscal year especially when this demand will hit I-485 inventory or would start using annual visa numbers once date will become current for these PDs. Moving EB3 to EB2 porting is also calculated. See table below. For every primary applicant, family size is considered to be 2.25 to calculate Porting (Primary + Dependents)


Poll Results



Note: This is just one way to analyze this data. If you have any other better way please feel to comment or contact us and we can add your analysis to this site as well. Our goal is to help immigrant community.


Pageviews and Unique PageViews based on three posts used to calculate EB3 to Eb2 porting









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17 comments:

Anonymous said...

So how does this impact the predictions for EB2-I. Realistic estimate? Thank you.

CM said...

To Anonymous said..."So how does this impact the predictions for EB2-I. Realistic estimate? Thank you."

I think this will not impact the 'Realistic' scenario for current year EB2 Predictions. For this year's spillover all we have to worry about is EB3 to EB2 porting that is happening until April 2006 i.e. '5198' number, which is already taken into account by assuming 6000' number in the predictions.

We expect any movement in EB2-IC only during July visa bulletin. Good thing is visa bulletin is released one month in advance around 10th of previous month.

July Bulletin will be released on - 10th June
August Bulletin will be released on - 8th July
September Bulletin will be released on - 9th August

So in reality any new I-485 applications due to porting will reach USCIS only after 1st July. As per current predictions, I believe July bulletin would see movement at most until September 06 (we expect movement at least till late Dec 06 or early Jan 07 during September bulletin). So until 9th August (release date of last FY 2011 visa bulletin) at most '1200' (6393-5198) more I-485 applications would be added to the Demand Data. But I do not believe USCIS would get enough time to consider these new I-485 applications and demand data for September visa bulletin will see meager demand out of these newly added '1200'cases. So to sum up everything this will not impact EB2-IC movement. But porting after April 06 in addition to usual yearly porting will definitely affect EB2-IC movement after Sep 2011 (for FY 2012) once date will become current for these porting cases in Sep 2011.

Anonymous said...

CM, how does this impact the predictions for EB2-I. Optimistic estimate? Thank you.

Anonymous said...

CM,This might be too early but due you think that OCT'07 EB2-I has a chance in 2012 spill over season to file EAD? Much appreciate your insights.

CM said...

This will impact Optimistic scenario by 15 days at most due to the same reasons as I mentioned about realistic scenario above. But in reality I believe it will not impact it.

Whole EB2-I prediction optimistic model is more sensitive towards less EB1 demand and EB2 ROW demand as compared to porting. Porting numbers considered for July Bulletin should be around '4500-6000' and it will not impact movement that much. But imagine if EB1 demand is around 30000 and EB-2 ROW demand is around 25000 when compared to last year. This will move realistic dates to Optimistic dates easily.

@Anonymous - CM, how does this impact the predictions for EB2-I. Optimistic estimate? Thank you.

CM said...

Like you said this may be too early to predict that but if PD for EB2-IC would move till PD Jan 07 this year, we still have 10000 odd EB2-I visa applicants to reach July 2007. Assuming porting will use yearly EB2-IC allocation (5600) in FY 2012, we still need 10000 spillover in FY 2012. If economy picks up I expect we might not receive as much spillover that we may receive this year. Assuming average 15000 spillover,this number will be consumed by total 15000 pending EB2-IC applicants with PD July -2007 and before.

Any spillover more than 15000, will be passed down to EB3-ROW for FY 2012. Remember spillover will only be used for a category if there is a demand else numbers will be passed down to lower categories.

Dates for EB2-IC beyond July 2007 will move in October 2012 by atleast 4-6 months (assuming on average 2000 EB2-I I-485 applicants for each month beyond July 2007) to intake enough application that they think will be useful to utilize yearly quota and some spillover.

If we think that EB2-IC will always receive entire spillover till they become current then we may be wrong. Once dates move beyond July - 2007, every year some remaining spillover will trickle down to EB3-ROW because of no EB2-IC demand. EB2-IC dates again start moving in October. This will be their administrative fix to newly changes spillover rule at least til date reaches July 2007 for EB3-ROW .

But again no one knows what will happen and what steps USCIS would take.


@Anonymous - CM,This might be too early but due you think that OCT'07 EB2-I has a chance in 2012 spill over season to file EAD? Much appreciate your insights.

Anonymous said...

CM..I read the above posts and you mentioned that in the September bulletin you are expecting movement to around Dec 06 or Jan 07. My priority date is Feb 07 and I was hoping that my date will become current in September bulletin. At this point what are the chances of EB2I moving to Feb 07 in the September bulletin? Any inputs would be appreciated. Thank you very much for all your help. Your stats and posts are really helping us all.

CM said...

Chances are still 80& so far. We would know more when new I-485 inventory would come out in few weeks.

Anonymous said --
CM..I was hoping that my date will become current in September bulletin.....

Anonymous said...

Thank you for your support and motivation. It keeps up going :)

To Anonymous - Thank you very much for all your help. Your stats and posts are really helping us all.

Anonymous said...

@CM

Cm,Thanks for your detailed reply. So do you think Oct-07 EB2-I has chance to file 485 in Oct'12?Or is it more like 2013?

Anonymous said...

I would think yes, anytime between Oct 2012 - December 2012, provided EB2-IC PD would cross early Jan 07 this year. As per current predictions it will. But we do not know what would happen when new I-485 inventory would come out.


@Anonymous

Cm,Thanks for your detailed reply. So do you think Oct-07 EB2-I has chance to file 485 in Oct'12?Or is it more like 2013?

us-non-immigrants said...

I would think yes, anytime between Oct 2012 - December 2012, provided EB2-IC PD would cross early Jan 07 this year. As per current predictions it will. But we do not know what would happen when new I-485 inventory would come out.


@Anonymous

Cm,Thanks for your detailed reply. So do you think Oct-07 EB2-I has chance to file 485 in Oct'12?Or is it more like 2013?

CM said...

Like you said this may be too early to predict that but if PD for EB2-IC would move till PD Jan 07 this year, we still have 10000 odd EB2-I visa applicants to reach July 2007. Assuming porting will use yearly EB2-IC allocation (5600) in FY 2012, we still need 10000 spillover in FY 2012. If economy picks up I expect we might not receive as much spillover that we may receive this year. Assuming average 15000 spillover,this number will be consumed by total 15000 pending EB2-IC applicants with PD July -2007 and before.

Any spillover more than 15000, will be passed down to EB3-ROW for FY 2012. Remember spillover will only be used for a category if there is a demand else numbers will be passed down to lower categories.

Dates for EB2-IC beyond July 2007 will move in October 2012 by atleast 4-6 months (assuming on average 2000 EB2-I I-485 applicants for each month beyond July 2007) to intake enough application that they think will be useful to utilize yearly quota and some spillover.

If we think that EB2-IC will always receive entire spillover till they become current then we may be wrong. Once dates move beyond July - 2007, every year some remaining spillover will trickle down to EB3-ROW because of no EB2-IC demand. EB2-IC dates again start moving in October. This will be their administrative fix to newly changes spillover rule at least til date reaches July 2007 for EB3-ROW .

But again no one knows what will happen and what steps USCIS would take.


@Anonymous - CM,This might be too early but due you think that OCT'07 EB2-I has a chance in 2012 spill over season to file EAD? Much appreciate your insights.

CM said...

This will impact Optimistic scenario by 15 days at most due to the same reasons as I mentioned about realistic scenario above. But in reality I believe it will not impact it.

Whole EB2-I prediction optimistic model is more sensitive towards less EB1 demand and EB2 ROW demand as compared to porting. Porting numbers considered for July Bulletin should be around '4500-6000' and it will not impact movement that much. But imagine if EB1 demand is around 30000 and EB-2 ROW demand is around 25000 when compared to last year. This will move realistic dates to Optimistic dates easily.

@Anonymous - CM, how does this impact the predictions for EB2-I. Optimistic estimate? Thank you.

CM said...

Chances are still 80& so far. We would know more when new I-485 inventory would come out in few weeks.

Anonymous said --
CM..I was hoping that my date will become current in September bulletin.....

Jes1thr said...

My Priority date is 2003 Feb 25, is it a good idea to start the process of porting EB3 to EB2 now(Sept 21 2011) ? I would really appreciate your suggestions/comments....

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Time wise porting will buy you at least 6 months.

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