Here is the update on Possible EB-2 Priority Date Movement in the May Visa Bulletin. AILA has updated this after following-up on earlier observation of at least 12,000 unused visa numbers from EB1 to EB2. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that these unused visa numbers will be used entirely for May 2011 Visa Bulletin.Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 11040563 (posted Apr. 5, 2011)"
It is interesting to see that DOL would progress dates as much as possible and then will move them back if they will see high surge in demand. Dates are predicted to move in light of 12,000 unused visa numbers, current EB2-ROW demand and some unused numbers from EB4 and EB5. Lets hope for maximum movement for EB2-IC in coming months. We will revise our May 2011 visa bulletin prediction for EB2-IC based on above statement."Following-up on his earlier observations on EB-1 demand and "spill-down" to EB-2 reported on InfoNet on March 29, 2011 (InfoNet Doc. No. 11032960), Charlie Oppenheim discussed scenarios for EB-2 movement in the coming months. In preparation of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin, DOS will consider the approximately 12,000 unused EB-1 numbers that will "spill-down" to EB-2, EB-2 demand and possible unused numbers, and will consult with USCIS on its processing potential. A quick look by DOS at this point indicates that there is the possibility for greater advancement of the India EB-2 category than had earlier been thought. Doing so will give DOS better visibility into EB-3 upgrade demand in the pipeline, and will better ensure that all visas allowed annually are used. However, a rapid advance could spur a surge in demand that could impact the cut-off dates later in the year. The May Visa Bulletin, generally issued mid-April, will contain a discussion of visa availability projections for the remainder of the year."
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11 comments:
So will the dates move to Dec 2006?
Will the dates go past sept 2006 in the may bulletin
Dec'06 chances are low
Sep'06 Chances are bright - yes in May
Dates will only move to December 2006 if in addition to 12000 visa spillover, we will also receive some spillover from EB2-ROW and some unused visa numbers from EB4 and EB5 based on their respective half yearly consumption. We have hoped for the most optimistic movement in our May Visa Bulletin predictions.
If not then,here I will agree with Anura. Dates will not move beyond 08 October 2006 based on just 12000 available visa numbers. There are too many pending EB2 I-485 applications for India and China in order for PD to cross 2006 (around 17499).
Anonymous said...
So will the dates move to Dec 2006?
Anonymous said...
Will the dates go past sept 2006 in the may bulletin
Anura said...
Dec'06 chances are low
Sep'06 Chances are bright - yes in May
May bulletin is out - EB2 SIGNIFICANTLY moved to TWO months, 01 July'06
C'mon.. really.. any more predictions..
@Anonymous
Yep predictions are just predictions. USCIS/DoS had 9000 visas for EB2 India as per their own words/publications, but they seem to want to tread safely and not over burden themselves. As they have admitted in the May VB, they have no idea how porting will go (of course one can never predict who decides to port and when). They also amply have indicated that they will go slow. Of course that means as they approach and if they have too much to dispense then they will leap and retrogress. But we are just crunching numbers and we may be as bad as according to this quote: "Those who know do not say, those who say do not know. - Tao Te Ching". Cheers.
Considering 4000 applications pending with PD before July 1st 2006, it is definitely a significant movement may be not as much what we expected. But nothing is lost movement will come soon.
See "EB2 Movement for FY 2011- Analysis based on May Visa Bulletin"
Anonymous said...
May bulletin is out - EB2 SIGNIFICANTLY moved to TWO months, 01 July'06
C'mon.. really.. any more predictions..
@Arun
Totally agree with Arun over here. You summarized it well.
Considering 4000 applications pending with PD before July 1st 2006, it is definitely a significant movement may be not as much what we expected. But nothing is lost movement will come soon.
See "EB2 Movement for FY 2011- Analysis based on May Visa Bulletin"
Anonymous said...
May bulletin is out - EB2 SIGNIFICANTLY moved to TWO months, 01 July'06
C'mon.. really.. any more predictions..
So will the dates move to Dec 2006?
Will the dates go past sept 2006 in the may bulletin
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