Family-Based
Family 1st – saw some movement for most countries;
Family 2A – most countries advanced to June 2007; Mexico advanced to January 2007.
Family 2B – world numbers stalled at April 2003; Mexico saw no movement and Philippines advances to 01 March 2000.
Family 3rd – most countries advanced to May 2001; Philippines retrogress to February 1992; Mexico advances to 15 November 1992.
Family 4th – most countries stalled at January or March 2000; Philippines stalled at 08 April1988; Mexico stays at February 1996.
Employment-Based
Employment 1st – still current in all categories
Employment 2nd – 01 July 2006 for India; one week improvement for China (01 August 2006) and current for all other categories.
Employment 3rd – EB3 saw overall movement for each country and category
Employment 5th – still current in all categories
VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS
Family-sponsored: The extremely high level of demand during the first few months of FY-2011 resulted in the retrogression of most worldwide cut-off dates in January or February. While most of these cut-offs have begun to advance slowly, heavy demand in the Family First preference has caused a further retrogression for May. At this time it is not possible to predict the rate of forward movement, but some movement is anticipated in most categories for the remainder of the fiscal year.
Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high. Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:
Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)
China: none to three weeks expected through July. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.
India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.
Employment Third:
Worldwide: three to six weeks
China: one to three weeks
India: none to two weeks
Mexico: although continued forward movement is expected, no specific projections are possible at this time.
Philippines: three to six weeks
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9 comments:
How many weeks will the eb2 move in the next bulletin
if the movement of VB for e3Ph will be 3 to 6 weeks, those whose priority dates is October 2006, we will be current before 2012 ends.But lets pray for a rapid movement, so that we all be smiling to see our priority date current on the first quarter of 2012.lets all pray for that. God is good all the time.
We hope for at least 2 weeks movement considering DOS would be interested in gauging some more demand before July visa bulletin. They cannot advance PD much because by the time July visa bulletin will come, USCIS has seen not much demand due to EB3 to EB2 upgrades, which they want to account for. So movement expected is tiny.
Anonymous said...
How many weeks will the eb2 move in the next bulletin
Hi CM,
Are all petitions for employment based categories being scrutinized especially on the stage of labor certification or at random system only? I have heard that some have filed under eb2 category just because they have the qualifications but their positions for their jobs actually fall under eb3.Their employers agreed to give them high positions which do not exist just to be qualified to file under eb2.Is this technique just like a gamble, win or lose? Or is it a total failure?
PERM labors are well scrutinized by experienced officials and are approved based on common qualification that is usually seen for a certain Job Level. Anything unusual are usually audited. Any job requirements for a specific title should be common among the industry. In many cases, job requirement should be consistent in a company's department for all officials. You cannot have one employee with a BS working on a same PERM role which states minimum requirement as MS.
Usually DOL would use Job-SOC code to determine Job Level or SVP rating for a given title. Usually SVP >= 8 qualifies for EB2 job. But there are cases like 'Mechanical Engineer' with SVP = 6 that can be qualified as EB2 level job based on 'Business Necessity.' Your company should be willing to explain that in case of audit. At the same time there should be no qualified American citizen available for that job.
So in all as long as company can justify job qualification and requirement under EB2 during audit you can be qualified. Receiving audit is solely based on officers discretion.
Anonymous said...
Hi CM,
Are all petitions for employment based categories being scrutinized especially on the stage of labor certification or at random system only? I have heard that some have filed under eb2 category just because they have the qualifications but their positions for their jobs actually fall under eb3.Their employers agreed to give them high positions which do not exist just to be qualified to file under eb2.Is this technique just like a gamble, win or lose? Or is it a total failure?
Hi CM,
DO you have any mechanism to predict Family Preference movements similar to your Employment category calculations?
We have a FP4-I PD July 2002 - we were within 6 months and moving fast till recently before they retrogressed and we are back in the pavilion with no end in sight!!
Thank you
TR
@TR Right now we do not have any mechanism to calculate wait time for Family Based cases. But we can look into it. Most difficult part about FB cases are that they are CP and not AOS. It is difficult to predict the demand. Other than that we do not have anything like PERM that we have for EB cases. It makes prediction very challenging. We will look into the inventory that hey now for FB cases. As they opened gates for everyone there may be a good chance now that inventory will give meaningful predictions at least for near term PDs.
CM,
Thank you for your response and the details.
Thank you
TR
Hi CM,
DO you have any mechanism to predict Family Preference movements similar to your Employment category calculations?
We have a FP4-I PD July 2002 - we were within 6 months and moving fast till recently before they retrogressed and we are back in the pavilion with no end in sight!!
Thank you
TR
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