Thursday, June 9, 2011

July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis


Thursday, June 09, 2011 | , , , , , ,

July 2011 Visa Bulletin was released today. For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB-2 India-China advanced to 08 March 2007. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current. Good movement for Family-Based categories overall.

Family-Based

Family 1st – FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at May 1, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to March 8, 1993. FB1 Philippines moves forward by two (2 ) months to April 15, 1996.

Family 2A – FB2A moves forward by seven (7) months to

March 22, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by seven (7) months to February 15, 2008.

Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remain (a

gain) unchanged at April 15, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to August 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by three (3) months to June 8, 2000.

Family 3rd – most countries advanced to July 2003; Philippines moves to March 1992; Mexico stayed at 15 November 1992.

Family 4th – most countries stalled at January or March 2000; Philippines advanced to 1 5May 1988; Mexico advanced to March 1996.


Employment-Based

Employment 1st – still current in all categories

Employment 2nd – EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 India-China see significant movement to 08 March 2007.

Employment 3rd – EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to October 8, 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to July 1, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 2002. EB-3 Mexico moves forward by seven (7) months to July 01, 2005.

Employment 3rd (Others)- The “other worker” category remains unchanged at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by one year two (2) weeks to November 22, 2004 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines. It moves forward by one (1) week to May 01, 2002 for India

Employment 4th – still current in all categories

Employment 5th – still current in all categories


VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from June Visa Bulletin

Family-sponsored: For July, F2A numbers EXEMPT from per-country limit are available to applicants from all countries with priority dates earlier than 15FEB08. F2A numbers SUBJECT to per-country limit are available to applicants chargeable to all countries EXCEPT MEXICO with priority dates beginning 15FEB08 and earlier than 22MAR08. (All F2A numbers provided for MEXICO are exempt from the per-country limit; there are no F2A numbers for MEXICO subject to per-country limit.)

Employment-based: No Notes !!!!



Our Analysis on EB Category after July Visa Bulletin Release

EB3-ROW-M-P - EB3 ROW moved by three weeks to October 08, 2005. As seen with last few months, EB3-ROW only used 1400 visas from the visible demand. At this pace EB3-ROW can ONLY reach mid November by September 2011 visa bulletin. Either lot of the annual visa consumption is going into approving monthly cases returned from Local Offices to USCIS or these visas are utilized by EB3-Mexico. So far, for the current year as per I-485 inventory, EB3-Mexico has utilized 4010 visa numbers. These excess visa utilization suggests that either lot of old I-485 cases were denied for Mexico or DOS is trying to use as much visa numbers for EB3-Mexico to bring it to current EB3-ROW-P, PD of 08 October 2005, This way they do not have to worry about 7% utilization of annual cap that is required to maintain status of retrogressed countries going forward for next fiscal year. Other school of thought suggests that EB3-Mexico can also become 'U' for last two months of the quarter. EB3-P will have to move with EB3-ROW, no matter what for rest of the year.

EB2-India & China - EB2 India and China advanced to 08 March 2007 by utilizing at least 10,563 additional unused visa numbers from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5. It is expected that at this pace dates can reach July 2007 in August visa bulletin. In September bulletin either dates will become current or will move into first quarter of 2008. If available visa are less than 24K-11k(used for this bulletin) = 14K for remaining two months, then DOS can decide to stay put at 01 Aug 07. PWMBs will be enough to consume annual visa numbers for rest of the next fiscal year (not spillover). Chances for latter looks less as DOS would like to build some inventory for themselves to have fair cut-off date projection for next year spillover season. Once again, everyone keep your documents ready. Next two months could be full of roller coaster ride. It all depends if B's would Stanley Cup. (LOL ..just kidding). God Bless!!!


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295 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 295   Newer›   Newest»
Jay said...

That is some quick and in depth analysis.
CM, Thanks again for all the good work.. Hoping that I will be current this year(Sep 2007 EB2-I)

gcw07 said...

CM,

Excellent analysis. I have a quick question. My family has not yet applied for I-485. They are in India now due to elders health issue. They are not expected back till last week of July 2011. If I get my GC by first week of July 2011, can they apply by last week of July 2011, after they enter? Please advise. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

Thanks for your excellent analysis. Looks like eb5 (8000) + eb1 (12000 - 9000 = 3000) = 11,000 numbers are released to meet the demand untill march 07 2007. Going forward we will get some numbers from eb1 (may be 4 to 6k) + eb2 (6 to 8k) inorder to meet the backlog untill Aug 01 2007.

Anonymous said...

My PD is August 29, 2007. I-140 Approved, EB-2 India.
Do I have any chance of getting EAD this year.

Thanks

Ravis

Anonymous said...

Hello CM, great predictions and outstanding service to folks like me. My PD is Apr, 2007 (EB2-India). But I am unmarried !! Am I screwed if I cannot marry within next two months??
- Ganesh

Anonymous said...

Thanks much CM, excellent analysis, please keep updating as and when things come up.
Not to take away the spirit but then we need to be sure. Please address the following concern.
Could there be a case where CIS could have consumed most of the spillover in may and june VBs and needed to have sufficient time to release the preadjudicated cases? In that case, there would be hardly any movement in the next VB. Please comment.

Great work like always, we have been fans of your detailed knowhow. Thanks again.
PK

Anonymous said...

CM,
Thanks for your great analysis, my PD is April 2007 and I am eagarly waiting for the next month bulletin (August 2011) which may make me current. I just put my fingers crossed.
GP

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

My EB2-I PD is May 5, 2007. Based on July visa bulletin is the probaility of being current in Aug bulletin high?

Thanks,
RP

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, You Rock!!
My PD is Nov 2008 EB2I. My I140 got approved in 2009, but the online status still shows Initial Review. Any thoughts?

Thanks
Kumar

Anonymous said...

OMG! I'm current on july VB.. god is good all the time



Maria

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, thanks for your analysis, this really helps.
Would you please help me with this question. I'm curretly with employer -B, with whom my I-140 is approved in EB2 category. My previous employer -A, had also applied for my I-140 and is also approved and this is in EB3 category. My question is if I want to use the priority date from my previous employer with the current employer, what will be the process. My current employer agreed to do this but I'm trying to know what will be the right procedure to do. Please help!

Anonymous said...

wow good news thank you CM :)
Noor

Anonymous said...

wow! good news i am waiting for oct 2007, but still happy about forward movement.
CM appreciate your great work and hope your future analysis should come true. :-)

Anonymous said...

Hi,

Can someone please tell the documents required for filing I485? I'm married, EB2I. Maybe my priority date (March 2010) will become current by end of this FY!!!

Regards,

RV

Anonymous said...

Hi,

Can anyone please post Sample Birth Certificate or paste link of the sample birth certificate?

Thanks,

RV

Anonymous said...

My PD 29 August 2009. Approved I-140 Can I expect anything this year.

Anonymous said...

Awesome work dude .... Go B's - Horton paid a visit to the locker room so that will help....

Anonymous said...

Hi

My PD is Jan 2007 EB2 which is current now, when can I expect the card? whats the next step?finger printing,interview etc?

your reply is very much appreicted.

Thanks

Anonymous said...

I see people are liking this blog. The analysis is very helpful. I am not the moderator but reading the comments above I have some suggestions to help CM and not to over-burden him and also to promote this blog.

Comments to avoid under blog post:

1: People who post personal situation question, not entirely related to the post should use the Forum. e.g. comments above by Kumar, RV, Ganesh, gcw07(sorry gcw07 i know you use forum but this on should have been under forum) and some anonymous users. By posting such questions in forum, you will keep the comments here clean and promote the forum on this blog. There are lot other benefits using forum.

2: Read the post properly and entirely. CM always clearly mention his predictions. Some people still tend to ask "my PD is so and so when will my PD become current or will it become current next VB". e.g. is RP's comment.

Comments that adds value:

1: Comments that are related to analysis based on some other data. e.g. a comment by PK. If something that doesn't make sense in the analysis. Please post and ask clarification. This will add value to the post.

2: Thank You and appreciation comments are MOST Welcome. Yes, keep them coming. Encourage and reward CM for his efforts.

CM you might want to create your own FAQs and include a link at the end of each post so people don't bombard you with noisy comments.

-oms

Anonymous said...

RV,

Check this post for documents and Birth-Certificate.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?41-Prepare-to-file-I485

Read this as well: http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf

-oms

Anonymous said...

My Priority date is August last 2008 EB2 India. Is there any hope for me to be current this year or I will have to wait.

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous

There is no chance that a March 2010 Eb2I become current end of FY.

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous
I think you will have to wait for 14 more months.

Sanjay said...

So far in my Google search I find your website (blog) provides the fastest and most accurate information about visa analysis and priority date. Also, I find lots of useful article and good information. With deep of my heart I really appreciate your good work and May god blesses all of your team. Keep up good job!

Anonymous said...

My PD is March 12th 2007 (EB2). Can I expect mine will be current in August bulletin?

Thanks

Jay said...

@Anonymous

Ofcourse Yes..

Anonymous said...

hey CM

great work..
my PD is aug 25th 2009 EB2 India and I 140 approved
so can i expect it to be current this yr?
thanx

JO

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

I see someone posted

Thanks for your excellent analysis. Looks like eb5 (8000) + eb1 (12000 - 9000 = 3000) = 11,000 numbers are released to meet the demand untill march 07 2007. Going forward we will get some numbers from eb1 (may be 4 to 6k) + eb2 (6 to 8k) inorder to meet the backlog untill Aug 01 2007.

I want to check how did he come to this conclusions or from were did he get these numbers? Are they posted on any govt site? Please guide.

Thanks for your excellent work. It keeps all of us motivated.

Sunny

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

Can you please elaborate - "In September bulletin either dates will become current or will move into first quarter of 2008."

My PD is Feb 2011. How much will it take - 4 or 5 or 6 years?

CM said...

@Jay I hope so :) . Good Luck.

CM said...

Yes they can apply. If by any chance that your case is approved before receiving their application they can always get green card based on 245(k) or by filing "Follow to Join" application on basis of your approved green card. For FTJ, you have to file for I-824. Once it is approved, they can file for the immigrant visa overseas under your category EB2-I and PD as long as it is current. Else they have to wait. Since yours is Feb 2007, you will be current.


Discuss with your lawyer if he can file their case on basis of 245(k). 245(k) allows individual to be out of status for 180 days. I would try this route first.


gcw07 said...

CM,

Excellent analysis. I have a quick question. My family has not yet applied for I-485. They are in India now due to elders health issue. They are not expected back till last week of July 2011. If I get my GC by first week of July 2011, can they apply by last week of July 2011, after they enter? Please advise. Thanks.

CM said...

Agree with you. EB5 8000 is the maximum, it could be anywhere from 6000 to 8000. But in any case we are expecting to get those numbers listed below to reach 01 August 2007. Good summary.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

Thanks for your excellent analysis. Looks like eb5 (8000) + eb1 (12000 - 9000 = 3000) = 11,000 numbers are released to meet the demand untill march 07 2007. Going forward we will get some numbers from eb1 (may be 4 to 6k) + eb2 (6 to 8k) inorder to meet the backlog untill Aug 01 2007.

CM said...

@Kumar It could be a glitch in USCIS system. I wil not worry. As long as you have approved I-140, you are golden.

CM said...

@RP Good chances. Good Luck.

CM said...

@RP Yes very high.

CM said...

@GP - Good Chances.

CM said...

@Ravis Chances are 50-50. We will know by next bulletin.

CM said...

It is important that you are married before i-485 approval else your wife will have to file in F2 category.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM, great predictions and outstanding service to folks like me. My PD is Apr, 2007 (EB2-India). But I am unmarried !! Am I screwed if I cannot marry within next two months??
- Ganesh

Anonymous said...

Hi GCW07,

You have to bring your family back before you get GC. If you get your GC while they were in India, they cannot come back to US. You have start consular processing and it takes 6-8 months to get approved. Plan accordingly

Regards
Sairam

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous

Ravi Babu,
Are you asking about getting EAD or GC based on approved 140 and your PD.

If you are really asking about EAD, then stop worrying abt GC. Do not ask such silly questions here. Do some research before asking questions u DUMB

Anonymous said...

If You are a nurse or if you know any nurse friends who have been abandoned by their sponsors/petitioners in recent years. If they already have established priority dates either in 2005 or 2006 but now have no sponsor, you can refer them to me , and I will pay you a fee of $ 400 on each nurse you refer ,if they meet our recruitment criteria
Contact me on : ali100000000@yahoo.com

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
My PD is 09-Jan-2008 in EB2-I.Can you pls advise what are the chances of me being current by Sep 2011. Also what are the chances of dates retrogressing after Sep 2011.
BTW thanks for the excellent service you are providing to the aspiring GC applicants.
SS

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Thank you for excellent and quick analysis. My PD is EB2I Dec 2008. What are my chances being current ?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Thanks for useful information. My PD is 7Sep2007 - Are there any chances of my PD become current in next 2 bulletins. Please advise.

Thanks,
HariBabu

Anonymous said...

@CM
CM you are God to me, for replying !! All the best to you !!

-Ganesh

Jay said...

Ladies and Gentlemen,
Please post your question in the forum on this website.

http://us-non-immigrants.1048445.n5.nabble.com/

It will be great as others can benefit from the specific questions.

Much appreciated.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

Thanks for the useful information. Are we again going to face fiasco similar to July 2007 in coming months?

SJ

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

Thanks for the useful information. Are we again going to face fiasco similar to July 2007 in coming months?

SJ

CM said...

@GP - Good Chances.

Anonymous said...

My PD is March 12th 2007 (EB2). Can I expect mine will be current in August bulletin?

Thanks

oms said...

I see people are liking this blog. The analysis is very helpful. I am not the moderator but reading the comments above I have some suggestions to help CM and not to over-burden him and also to promote this blog.

Comments to avoid under blog post:

1: People who post personal situation question, not entirely related to the post should use the Forum. e.g. comments above by Kumar, RV, Ganesh, gcw07(sorry gcw07 i know you use forum but this on should have been under forum) and some anonymous users. By posting such questions in forum, you will keep the comments here clean and promote the forum on this blog. There are lot other benefits using forum.

2: Read the post properly and entirely. CM always clearly mention his predictions. Some people still tend to ask "my PD is so and so when will my PD become current or will it become current next VB". e.g. is RP's comment.

Comments that adds value:

1: Comments that are related to analysis based on some other data. e.g. a comment by PK. If something that doesn't make sense in the analysis. Please post and ask clarification. This will add value to the post.

2: Thank You and appreciation comments are MOST Welcome. Yes, keep them coming. Encourage and reward CM for his efforts.

CM you might want to create your own FAQs and include a link at the end of each post so people don't bombard you with noisy comments.

-oms

Anonymous said...

My PD 29 August 2009. Approved I-140 Can I expect anything this year.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, thanks for your analysis, this really helps.
Would you please help me with this question. I'm curretly with employer -B, with whom my I-140 is approved in EB2 category. My previous employer -A, had also applied for my I-140 and is also approved and this is in EB3 category. My question is if I want to use the priority date from my previous employer with the current employer, what will be the process. My current employer agreed to do this but I'm trying to know what will be the right procedure to do. Please help!

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

My EB2-I PD is May 5, 2007. Based on July visa bulletin is the probaility of being current in Aug bulletin high?

Thanks,
RP

gcw07 said...

CM,

Excellent analysis. I have a quick question. My family has not yet applied for I-485. They are in India now due to elders health issue. They are not expected back till last week of July 2011. If I get my GC by first week of July 2011, can they apply by last week of July 2011, after they enter? Please advise. Thanks.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

We have updated our comment section. Guys to post as "Anonymous" - use email as "anonymous@anonymous.com). Goal was to have better management of comment section and not to remove feature to post anonymously. THANKS.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

To be very honest, chances for such fiasco is very less. At most dates will move by few years and then retrogress back. It totally depends how DOS want to handle inventory for next year. Moving to first quarter of 2008 has real good chances.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Everyone please post your common questions to our FORUM, so that we do not have to reply to same questions again and again. We have two moderators (gcw07 and Jay) who can also answer your questions more promptly and efficiently.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Please don't say that. I am GOD fearing individual and would never like to be addressed like that.

We wish Good Luck to you in your future endeavors.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances are 75-25. We will know more by next bulletin. It depends how far dates will move in July visa bulletin.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances are 75-25. We will know more by next bulletin. It depends how far dates will move in August visa bulletin.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Please see above comment on getting current. Chances of retrogression back to July 2007 is almost certain in October 2011.

Thank you for your kind words.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I agree with the poster. If they are on dependent visa it is essential they are back in US before your approval.

In that case I-485 with CP is only option. I do not know how 245(k) holds in this case if by any chance IO will let them back to US, thus ignoring your green card approval by mistake.

Rajeever said...

Hi CM, Are there chances that March 2010 become current by End of this FY?

Again, thanks and congrats for putting making this informative tool!!

RV

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

RV, Chances are very less for March 2010 but no one can rule out any options. First of all it will depend on number of spillover visa left and second on how DOS will handle post July 2007 cases. Advancing dates by few months or a year and then retrogressing. But if US really want to use visa numbers I personally do not think CP demand will be enough to use entire visa numbers for this fiscal year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Great suggestion Jay!!! This will help us from answering similar questions again and again

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

HariBabu - Chances are good.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances are next slime to none.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances are 70-30. Date retrogression is 100% if it will cross into August 2007.

SJ said...

Thanks a lot CM for your prompt reply. You are like a light house for us!
SJ

Anonymous said...

Does CIS has anyway to gauge the demand post July-2007? Are there any rules around how they should go about ensuring that the visa numbers don't get wasted?

Personally, I think that they should make EB2I current if all the backlog (up till July 2007) is cleared but I don't have any past data to judge their decisions. 2007 fiasco was probably because they made both EB2 and EB3 current. This time I believe they should just make EB2 current but I also thing that they might shy away from that because of the 2007 debacle. Any thoughts CM?

CM said...

No they do not have any way to gauge demand post July 2007. Inventory is the only way so far unless they allow pre-registeration of I-485. So it will totally an experiment based on past historical trend. In past every spillover year dates moves by a year (I know it depends on volume of application per month). Taking this is into cosnideration dates past July 2007 will atleast move to first quarter of 2008. Even after this if visa are getting wasted, EB3 ROW will use some visas for pre-adjudicated cases.

Making EB2-IC current is good route but again DOS do not want to get crticised as in with july 2007 fiasco. In actuality if there is not demand dates should be current but DOS knows USCIS has been processing lot of I-140s post July 2007 and demand do exist but is not acounted for.

Dates should move to first quarter of 2008 if there is unused visa numbers as we are hoping. Retrogression to July 2007 in October 2011 is definite.

Agmararac said...

Hi CM,
I am an avid fan of yours, esp. this website that you create.
I have a confusion in mind. I am documentarily qualified since 2008, but my ds230 surename is different from my current passport that I am having now, since I got married and change my surename, do I need to inform the NVC that I have different surename which is from my husband? or should i wait that my pd becomes current and change it on my ds230 and bring during inteview time?
Hoping for your reply.
Thanks for your time.

WL said...

I missed out by 7 days (PD is March 15th.) What are my chances in the next month's VB?

CM said...

100%

CM said...

Call NVC and let them know if you can send them your Marriage Certificate. They might tell you to bring directly for the interview or send it to them.

WL said...

I like the sound of that.

Thanks

CM said...

LOL .. Good Luck.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,
You said "Retrogression to July 2007 in October 2011 is definite". How long do you think it will be stuck there? Give us best and worst case scenarios. I think lots of people like me who have their PD beyond 2008 are being a little jittery with this statement.

CM said...

it will be stuck there until next spillover season, i.e. last quarter of 2012 and then it may only move until December 2007 in FY 2012.

GPS said...

Hello CM,

My PD is March 2009. I have an approved I-140 under EB-2 India.What time frame I am looking at to become current.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You are looking at 4 years to get current and receive GC. You may get current before that depending upon how much spillover EB2-IC will receive in coming years.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

It totally depends on how DOS will want to handle post July 2007 demand. If they want to get inventory for next few years, it will make it current else if they want to add inventory enough for next spillover season they will just advance it by one year. Advancing to March 2008 would create enough inventory for next 2 years in my honest opinion.

Anonymous said...

CM, Please comment. Thanks PK

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Few of the people i know who had PDs after 2007 Aug, could not get their H1 extensions and moved back to India(i know atleast 3 such cases). Do you think this nos will have any impact on movement dates?

Luwil_cutab said...

hello! CM my wife priority date is October 21 ,2005 EB3 phil. it is sure that her priority date will be current in August visa bulliten? the employer in Florida is not yet communicating with her about her soon priority date will be current. it is possible that the employer cannot continue her employment? what is the best thing we could do.. thanks... Choy..

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

In anyway such possibility cannot be ruled out but my gut feeling is that there is at least more 9000 visas left (EB2-ROW - 5000 and EB1- 4000). Expected numbers are 13,000 so such possibility is very less. One thing I am sure of is that we will definitely see some good movement in August visa bulletin.

You made a valid point. I will be very surprised if there is no movement in next 2 bulletin.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Since both of your I-140s are approved, I will simply send a cover letter requesting to upgrade your PD during I-485 filing.

If your I-485 with EB3 category is already pending then I will interfile it. See this article --> http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/interfiling-i-485-after-sucessfully.html

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Welcome Noor!!! You are the only FB applicant that I know on our site. We wish you good luck.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Nothing in near future. Chances for EB2-IC getting current in coming bulletins is very less. Keep checking atleast next 2 bulletins.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

RV, I am sorry as BC can change from country to country, I have no such link.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yup!!! Today he even showed up at the game. Finally it is gonna be Game 7.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You can expect card anytime after July 1st. If you do not hear anything after 30 days from that time open a SR.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

oms ...I agree with your posts completely. Let forum be the place for common questions.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thank you posting the link.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You might have to wait for a while.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances are very less.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

No such numbers are not posted on any site, it comes from analysis of I-485 inventory, I-140 approvals, current PERM filing rate and submission of other forms for EB5. I fairly agree with analysis above. Few thousands here and there.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Definitely such numbers will affect EB2/EB3 movement in coming years. Only numbers that will affect this year's movement are from current I-485 inventory for pending applications until July 2007.

That's why for estimating wait time for cases after July 2007, it is important that we start looking into I-140 approval rate for each year. Thank you for making a valid point.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Choy - my friend, it is very important that she gets in contact with the current employer because during interview VO will ask for recent employment verification or offer letter. If you have that with you, you will be fine. Let me know how it will go once you will become current.

SM said...

Hi CM -

My priority date is Dec 2009 EB-2. Per your comments below, it appears that it could take another 4 years for me to get current. Is that correct?

(I would rather jump companies and re-start GC if that be the case, than wait in the current company).

If the wait time is around 2 years instead of 4, then I may decide to hold my breath and continue !

Any light from you in this regard will help greatly in my decision making process.

Thanks
SM

Anonymous said...

Thanks much CM. Sounds great to me. PK.

Anonymous said...

@CHOY: I think me and your wife has a same agency. Can you pls. Add me thru damitngbayan@yahoo.com

Anonymous said...

Why 4 years? Excuse me for not understanding your calculations in another blog. Weren't the filings in 2008 and 2009 very few due to economy? Is this estimate based on no spillover or the backlog is huge?

PG said...

Hi,
My PD is Jan 2008. I have an offer from another company. My I 140 is approved. What are your thoughts?? What is rough timeline I should keep in mind to make any decision -
PG

SS said...

Hi CM,

Your comment "Advancing to March 2008 would create enough inventory for next 2 years in my honest opinion."

So you think this is because of the PWMB. But considering a spillover next year to be similar to the spillover this year, dont you think people with March 2008 PD's
could get there GC by Sep 2012.

Please help me understand.

choy said...

ok. thank you.. i informed you.

Sri said...

Hi CM,

Excellent analysis. My Pd is 2oo7 Apr 27. When do you think it will become current? How much time it will take to get my GC after i file my I 485?

Davendra said...

Thanks CM for the amazing analysis and data points. Like many users I came across this site via search as well and now I am a frequent visitor and have also recommended many of my friends. I read most of your comments as well but would still like you respond to my query.

My PD is Sept 25 2007. What are my chances of getting current this year and when do you think as per your analysis?

Davendra said...

forgot to mention it is EB2-I

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

SM, as of now it looks like wait will be 4 years but I have recently got some statistics on I-140 conversion (this is not my work) for different years and I plan to implement them in GC calculator. Anyways in order to make an informed decision I will wait at least until September 2011 or October 2011.

This is my personal opinion and you can chose as it will suit your case. Personally, I would not let green card be hindrance in achieving my career goals.

For now please wait for 2-3 months and in the meantime we will update our GC calculator to include I-140 conversion rate as a factor. Make any decision after that. Good Luck.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Filing in 2008 and 2009 were not less but PERM approvals were low. Most other PERMs were waiting in the audit queue. With recent efforts by DOL to reduce this queue, we are seeing more of such approvals. Hence wait time is more. Estimate is solely based on assumption of 100% PERM conversion to I-485 (which may not be true, will be adding I-140 conversion factor soon) and EB2-IC receiving 15000-20000 spillover each year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I will wait at least till September 2011 or I should say first two week of August until when September bulletin will be released. If your date is not current by then, you can make a move.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yes if spillover will be same for next few years then yes, March 2008 will be current by FY 2012 but receiving almost 30-36k spillover every year is not possible. Any I-485/I-140 EB2-ROW and I-485 EB1 approvals that will not happen for this fiscal year will take away lot of visas from next year EB1 spillover. By next year spillover numbers may not be so huge . I believe at most 20,000. I also believe that new enhancements to EB5 program that they are currently working on will be approved and those unused visa numbers will reduce for next year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You will be current next bulletin unless something unexpected happens. I will be very surprised if you are not current in August Bulletin. Once you will file your I-485 assume at least 6-8 months to get green card.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances for you are good my friend. Somewhere around 80-90%. Anyone until PD Dec 2007 have chances of 80-90%.

Abc said...

after reading this blog and also some others it seems that no one is doubting that PD will move to at least July 01 2007.

I looked at the inventory and it seems that we need around 7500 more spillovers to EB2 IC to achieve this.

CM what is your estimate of remaining spillovers and where they would come from (EB1 , EB2 ROW or EB5)

Also do you know what was the total spillover last year to India and China and do we have more availability this year ?

Thank in advance for your insight and this is undoubtedly the most useful blog I see out there

SJ

Vimal said...

Excellent Analysis CM. My priority date is Jul 2008. What are the chances that this would be current in the coming quarter ? If not this year, am I looking at one year down the road to get my GC ?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

I just want to clarify something, way back july 2007 when all categories were current, did all applicants filed their I-485? I'll take Sri as an example here, her pd is before July 2007 so I am assuming that she has already filed her I-485. But it seems that when she will be current next month, she'll still be filing her I-485 and will get her GC after 6-8 months

Anonymous said...

Or she maybe assumed as PWMB?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

What will happen if a H1b worker did not able to file his labor cert 365 days before his final 6 yrs expires? And also if had able to file but was disapproved? Is there no chance for H1b extensions? I want to know about this because my friend is insisting to file under EB2P since it is current, he has the qualifications but the position for his work does not need those qualifications and he is into his 6th yr as an h1b worker and I'm worried it will be denied and won' t be eligible for AC 21. Thanks in advance.

Alluri Ravikanth said...

Hi CM,
My Priority date is April 4, 2008. Can you please let me know what my chances are for getting an EAD ?

Ram said...

Hello CM,
My priority date is 26 Aug 2008.Any chance of EAD this year?

Ram said...

Forgot to mention EB2 India

Anonymous said...

My PD is Aug 2008 ... what are my chances for next yr ?

hitech_h2 said...

Hello CM,

My priority date is May 2004, EB3. I already have EAD. When can I expect the GC?

DK said...

hi CM

My PD is June 28 , 2007. Do you think it will be current in August
If not what are the chances of getting it current this year

Thanks.... you rock

DK

Santosh said...

CM

When would you update August VB predictions....thx

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

SJ - I agree that we only need 7500 visa to reach 01 July 2007 and it is very much achievable unless EB5 will not yield anything for this year which is next to impossible.

I believe so far DOS would have used good portion of available visa numbers from last three quarters that they had estimated from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5. But to keep our calculations simple let us assume 2650 (entire 12k for May -June-July) from the quoted 12k has been used. In addition to this some 6000 from EB5 is used and at least 2000 from EB2-ROW for the half yearly consumption was used. So far numbers used are

Spillover until July 2011 = 2650+6000 +2000 = 10650 that is utilized for this movement.

Going forward we can expect atleast 1000-1500 from EB5, 3000 from EB2-ROW and another 5000 from EB1.

So minimum spillover expected is = 1500+3000+5000 = 9,500.

Anything less than this means 12k was projected estimate for EB1 for full year, or EB5 and EB2-ROW did not yield as much we expected.

My gut feeling is EB1 can yield at least 1000 more , EB5 - 1000 more and EB2-ROW can yield at least 2000 more from above estimated minimum spillover. Taking everything into account, Maximum spillover for the renaming two months can be = 9,500 + 500 + 1000 + 2000 = 13,000 - enough to cross July 2007 and take dates to anywhere until which DOS want to gauge demand for next year (Dec 2007 - March 2008)


In FY 2010 - EB2 -IC received around 19650 or so (going by memory) unused visa numbers excluding annual limit of 5600. This year numbers can be expected anywhere from 22000 - 25000 (excluding annual limit).

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances for you becoming current for this quarter is very less but can happen if DOS makes it 'C". If not this year then I am afraid you can become current in 2-3 years but will receive GC only in FY 2014.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

First of all, for this purpose an individual can remove all the time spent outside US on vacation from the 6 year limit. If he spend total 4 months outside US in these 6 years, he can extend his visa for 6 years and 4 month. Ask him to talk to his lawyer.

In case after doing everything above his PERM is still not pending for 365 days, he has to leave the country on or before 6+ (vacation time) years. In this case his employer has to continue the process of PERM and upon approval apply for I 140 premium and then H1B extension premium. He has to get H1-B stamped before entering into US. In case his PERM is denied then he has to stay outside US for one year before he can reenter US on new H1B visa.

Other than this he can apply for change of status to convent into other visa (F1 visa) until PERM is pending and then apply for I 140 premium and I-485 concurrently and enjoy EAD/AP.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances are at least more than 50%

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I am afraid that chances are very less unless they make it current for everyone. Good Luck.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

if not this year then not for 2 years.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Minimum 3-4 years more for your case.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances for August is at least 95 %. For September almost certain.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I will update my August VB predictions soon.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yes not all PD s with July 2007 PD was able to file I-485. There are at least 4700 EB2-IC PERMs who did not file during that time. She could be either PWMB or Upgrader.

Cibipressley said...

Why are u thinking it will take 2 years for aug 2008 eb2

Why said...

Why are u thinking it will take more than 2 years

Anonymous said...

My PD is Nov 1st 07, Eb2 I. When do you think I will be current?. Thanks

Sunil said...

Hi CM.. quick question..

Quick clarification sorry if i am asking a dumb question..I was making my own predictions/calculations and came up with a question.

For people who filed 485 during the so called "fiasco" of 2007 for example July 2007... and people who apply once
the PD becomes current (hopefully) in one of the next 2 VISA bulletins. so just trying to understand if there is any difference ?

So i think these are the two possible things

-- If you have already applied or you are going to apply in the next 2 months or so it does not matter cuz both have same PD and either of them could get GC first

or

-- If you have applied in Fiasco of 2007 you will get GC as soon as the PD becomes current and before any one who applied 485 now cuz you have already applied before


Can you clarify how this works ?

Buckeye said...

Just a little contibution of thoughts in my mind, i think those who applied on or before july 2007 has a slight advantage since they've already submitted some or all of the rquirements unless they have to repeat such like medical exams, so it depends on how's ur speed of completing those rqmtnts maybe.

Pesalaveeru said...

Hi CM,
My PD is 29-Oct-2007 in EB2-I.Can you pls advise what are the chances of me being current by Sep 2011. Also what are the chances of dates retrogressing after Sep 2011. If so what will be the date.
BTW thanks for the excellent service you are providing to the aspiring GC applicants

Veerendra

Atul said...

Hi CM....NEVER SEEN a BLOG gain so much popularity in such a small period of time...keep up the good work.

Questions related to EB-2 I and the fiasco timeperiod....

The priority date column on the I-140 and I-485 does not specify a date ? However, there are 2 dates on the receipt.

1. Received Date (probably the date application was received) July xx, 2007
2. Receipt Date (September xx, 2007).

Which should be treated as Priority Date ?

Secondly, how will USCIS differentiate between those who are not PWMB's and have filed I-485 concurrently during "fiasco" dates and for those who are PWMB's ? PWMB's will take more time to process than early filers right ?

Wont the concurrent filer's cases be in the preadjudicated list and ready to go as soon as the dates become current compared to the PWMB's ? Please clarfiy.

If your case is preadjudicated and has been transferred to TSC, how long it usually takes to get Green Card once the date becomes current?

Thanks for your insight and help !

Phxeagles said...

Hi cm,
Plz reply. My pd is oct 7 2007...what r the chances of being current in the aug or sep bulletin?does the pd on bulletin have to cross oct 7, 2007 or go up to November for me to file 485.. Also if I m current in sep bulletin, wen will I receive my ead? A lot depends on ead for me..appreciate ur help..SP

jaya said...

hi ,

I am new to your blog ...but amazed by the calculated prediction regarding PD .
my PD is february 2008 EB2.
any chance of movement in dates for my PD to be current in 2011 ?
please advice !!

Jay Surendranath said...

It has be at least Oct 8 2007 for you to file

Srichaparala said...

My PD is Apr 2007 EB2I. I hope that it willbe current next bulletin. But my H1 is also expiring soon (sometime in Jan 2008). What are my options here? file for H1 extension and file for EAD also once my PD becomes current? or apply for EAD only? What are your thoughts CM?

Thanks in advance.

Ramesh_saani said...

Hi CM,

I have to appreciate your patience in answering in each question on daily basis and doing this sort of analysis beside your job.

I follow various forums about gc analysis/prediction. Today i came across this post this in one of the forums(source: immigrationvoice.org), i would like to know your comments on this:

"One month back my lawyer got a letter from NVC for filing fees for my wife's case that has priority date of June, 12, 2008. I am not sure what exactly it means for future date movement for EB2 category. Can anybody throw some light on this."

I know NVC sends emails in advance of One year before they expect date would become current/visa will be available. But can we expect any movement till Mid of 2008 in September/October bulletin if USCIS doesn't name dates 'C', based on NVC sending emails to people with PDJune2008.

Thanks-
Ramesh

Anonymous said...

Hi Phx,

Just answering for your questions based on my experience. You are right. The current date in VB has to cross your PD to make to eligible to file. It need not be Nov 1st, even 8th Oct 2007 would be suffice. For getting your EAD normal processing time is about 3-4months. Hope this helps.

MR

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

This is one of the best website i came across for visa bulletin predictions and analysis. Appreciate your efforts and patience to answer each and every question; its quite amazing!! My PD is June 6, 2007 EB2-I. I wanted to know from you if there is a 100% chance for my PD to be current in August 2011 bulletin or it could be September 2011 bulletin as well ? Please let me know. Thank you.

MP

SL_2008 said...

Hi CM,

My PD is March 2008, when can I expect to get my green card if my PD doesn't get current this year. What are the chances my PD may get current this year.

Thank you for keeping us honest on our expectations

CM said...

Chances are you may be current by September 2011. We have to wait and see what will happen in next bulletin.

More I think about it , more I am getting concerned about chances of visa numbers going waste this year, no matter how far EB2-I will go past 2007. Reason being CP demand for EB2-I will never be enough to use entire visa numbers (if remaning spillover is more than 11000). If I was DOS, I would have gone back to USCIS and NVC and got fair analysis of number of pre-adjudicated or documentarily qualified cases available that is ready to use visa numbers. Any other cases other than these will not use visa number for this fiscal year. If remaining spillover is more than to cover this projected demand, I would start using these numbers for pre-adjudicated EB3 category. If DOS may not follow such route, there are 100% chances some visa numbers will go wasted this year and will be available for FB next year. This is my take on whole situation; advance EB2-India as much as possible in this coming bulletin to intake all documentarily qualified application and after that start concenterating on EB3 category in September bulletin.

CM said...

LOL.... Hopefully.

CM said...

Chances until 1 Dec-2007 is very good. 95%. Dates will atleast retrogress to July 2007 or before. wahtever they will think will be enough to utilize 2803 annual limit for EB2-India. Thank you for your kind words.

Jay said...

99.9999

Jay Surendranath said...

As CM suggested there is a chance that dates can move to 1st qtr of 2008 for september bulletin. Fingers crossed.

Pesalaveeru said...

Thanks for your reply, will wait to see your August 2011 Predictions.

Apatel said...

My PD is March 2003 EB3. I have not filed EAD. When can I expect GC?

Redbull09 said...

CM, My priority date is March 2009 (EB2 India), realistically, when do you think this would get current. I need to plan moves on this guess. Thanks a lot for your good work.

Sam Anand said...

hi CM, thanks for the wonderful work you are doing...my PD is Apr 10, 2008 in EB2 category...I saw some comments that there is a good chance for the date to go to first qtr of 2008...do u think it will cross Apr 10, 2008 by the September bulletin? Thanks!

Sam Anand said...

Hi CM,

Also, if u think the Apr 10, 2008 PD might not become current by Sept 2011, when would be your guess for the apr 10, 2008 PD to get current? Early 2012? Thanks again!

molly said...

Hi CM,

I am new here. My PD is Nov 6, 2006 under EB-3 ROW... any predictions? Thanks.

Anonymous said...

If someone's PD is Oct 7 and the cut-off date is Oct 7...he won't be able to file? The CO date should be really Oct 8? In short, to be current, your PD should be days " before" and not "on or before" the cut-off date?

Jansamma Joseph said...

Our number being BMB2002678028, when will be the visa interview call

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
My Priority date is 29th August 2008. I have I-140 approved. I was planning on switching the jobs. Do you think there are any chances for me to be current this year or beginning of next year. Your advise will be very much appreciated.

Guest said...

Hi CM,
For Birth Certificate requirement - I have BC from India but the date mentioned on BC (as 7th May) is not matching my passport and other official document (which is 8th May).
Apart from correcting on BC are there other options?

Thanks
AS

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,
I believe there had been changes since the last time I asked for some info: my details, EB-3 Phils, PD Nov 2007, based on your calculations it won't become current until Sept 2014 as it was expected that this category will further retrogress after Nov 2005 applications had been processed. Is this still the same since it was mentioned that EB-3 Phils will now keep up with the rest of EB-3 until the end of the year?- PB, uk

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
I have an approved I-140, then I add my spouse as my derivative, I pay his visa fee bill & send the required documents in NVC , when can I possibley be documentarily qualified again?I am doc. qualified since 2008, but now that I add my spouse, I dont know when? any knowledge regarding this one?
Thanks and more power on this site!!

Atul said...

Hi CM, never mind. You have answered the questions elsewhere on your blog. Keep up the good work of motivating and energizing the worried green-card waiters....

Anonymous said...

However, to qualify for the EAD, doesn't the I-485 application need to be valid for 6 months?

SS said...

Hi CM,

My priority date is 20th June 2008. My attorney recieved the letter from NVC to pay the fee. Does that mean that my case will become current this year?

SS

SS said...

I am under EB2 India category

Vishal said...

Hi SS, what is NVC I am hearing this term recently a lot in immigration sites and from where did you receive this information from USCIS or DOS.

FYI My PD is October 2008 and did not receive any thing like this. Is this something all applicants receive while GC is in pending state

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Because EB2-India might retrogress after September 2011 and will stay at July-August 2007 until July 2012.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Hopefully this fiscal year in September

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

PD is based on PERM applied date.

I think you got answers for your question. If you have more questions please let me know.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

yes to use EAD with AC21 portability clause your I-485 should be pending for 6 months and I-140 should be approved.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Agree with all reply's in here. Great job.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Welcome to US Non-Immigrants blog.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I would apply for H1 extension and EAD both. Since you are talking about applying EAD , I believe you are one of those PWMB's. Approval for newly filed case can take atleast 6-8 months, in that case having H1B extension will be helpful incase anything will go wrong. Since by January 2008, your case will be pending for just 180 days or less, you anyways cannot use AC21 to change jobs. Apply for BOTH.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thank you Ramesh for posting the information. There is no bound on where dates can reach. Literally after July 2007 there is no real accounted demand and DOS has clean slate to do whatever they can. IMHO they will account for all the CP demand and try to progress dates until then. Any available unused visa number from today that is more than 11,000 (approx pending cases) cannot be used by EB2-IC. Any extra visas can only be used CP cases and pre-adjudicated EB3 cases. Now it is upto DOS to decide how they want to progress in these two months. If numbers are more than 11,000, I will progress EB2-IC as much possible in August bulletin and then use remaining visas for EB3 category.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Agree with Jay, chances are good.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

if not this year then you will get current may be next year or year after that. In any case you will not get GC for next two years.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Not for at least next 2-3 years.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Realistically 3-4 years. Let's see where date will retrogress in October 2011.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM..First of all thanks for the great service to GC apsirants.
In many responses I see you suggest that Jan 2008 PD EB2I will also take a couple of yrs to get GC. Can you please elaborate how you account for this,if we consider dates will retrogress after Sep2011.
I am trying to understand approximately how many folks will still be pending till July 2007 including the PWMB's and from Sep07-Feb2008 ,how many applicants do you see would be in the pipeline and again there would be an approx number of porting from EB-3 to EB-2.You did mention from next year we shudnt be expecting more than 20K spillovers

anonymous said...

CM,
Thanks for answering for all the questions patiently. Can you please answer the following questions and help us all understand or predict the situation?

1.What is IMHO?

2.Assuming DOS wants to move dates based on CP demand, if they see demand for about 2800 visa nos(quota for EB2I for 2012 without spillover) for India say until April 2008(based on the mails NVC has been sending), do you think they will move the dates till April 2008?

3. My attorney selected the option of AOS ( and not CP) while filing I-140, according to him such cases wont receive any mail from NVC. If that is true, how can DOS arrive at actual demand? Will they still go by only demand at CP?

4. Is there any precedent in any category before as to how DOS acted when the inventory got cleared?

Noor said...

hello CM ...
you know FB2 ROW moves for 10 weeks in July & till my PD it needs 6 months any chance for me in August ?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

April 2008 can be current this year depending on DOS strategy for next 2 months else it will be FY 2012. You may not receive green card at least for next 2 years

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Hi Molly - Welcome to US Non-Immigrants. EB3-ROW, PD November 2006 will be current in September 2012

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I am sorry I was out of town for few days. I will try to catch up with everyone as soon as I can.

cool1 said...

Hi CM,

I am impressed by your analysis,When do you my PD can be current.My PD is Sep2009

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I am sorry but I can't help you with this. You need to contact your local consulate or NVC.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Unless they make EB2-IC current in coming two bulletins, you do not have chance anytime soon. I will go ahead and make the move after Sep 2011 visa bulletin release (releasing around 12 August 2011 ) if you are not current by then.

Sri said...

CM,

My PD is Dec 20 2007, what are the chance to get EAD in this year? What are the chance of getting GC?

thx

Sri said...

EB2 IC is my category

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Apart from making corrections on the document, you can try this but I don't know if it will work. You can get an affidavit from parents and relative mentioning that your correct birth date is 7th May and dates on passport and other dates was erroneous due to wrong date mentioned on high school leaving certificate used as an evidence for other official documents like passport et al.

This is very bogus excuse but I have no better way to handle it unless getting things corrected.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

PB - EB3-P will keep up with EB3-ROW for rest of fiscal year and some more time.

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