Thursday, June 9, 2011

July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis


Thursday, June 09, 2011 | , , , , , ,

July 2011 Visa Bulletin was released today. For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB-2 India-China advanced to 08 March 2007. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current. Good movement for Family-Based categories overall.

Family-Based

Family 1st – FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at May 1, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to March 8, 1993. FB1 Philippines moves forward by two (2 ) months to April 15, 1996.

Family 2A – FB2A moves forward by seven (7) months to

March 22, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by seven (7) months to February 15, 2008.

Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remain (a

gain) unchanged at April 15, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to August 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by three (3) months to June 8, 2000.

Family 3rd – most countries advanced to July 2003; Philippines moves to March 1992; Mexico stayed at 15 November 1992.

Family 4th – most countries stalled at January or March 2000; Philippines advanced to 1 5May 1988; Mexico advanced to March 1996.


Employment-Based

Employment 1st – still current in all categories

Employment 2nd – EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 India-China see significant movement to 08 March 2007.

Employment 3rd – EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to October 8, 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to July 1, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 2002. EB-3 Mexico moves forward by seven (7) months to July 01, 2005.

Employment 3rd (Others)- The “other worker” category remains unchanged at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by one year two (2) weeks to November 22, 2004 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines. It moves forward by one (1) week to May 01, 2002 for India

Employment 4th – still current in all categories

Employment 5th – still current in all categories


VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from June Visa Bulletin

Family-sponsored: For July, F2A numbers EXEMPT from per-country limit are available to applicants from all countries with priority dates earlier than 15FEB08. F2A numbers SUBJECT to per-country limit are available to applicants chargeable to all countries EXCEPT MEXICO with priority dates beginning 15FEB08 and earlier than 22MAR08. (All F2A numbers provided for MEXICO are exempt from the per-country limit; there are no F2A numbers for MEXICO subject to per-country limit.)

Employment-based: No Notes !!!!



Our Analysis on EB Category after July Visa Bulletin Release

EB3-ROW-M-P - EB3 ROW moved by three weeks to October 08, 2005. As seen with last few months, EB3-ROW only used 1400 visas from the visible demand. At this pace EB3-ROW can ONLY reach mid November by September 2011 visa bulletin. Either lot of the annual visa consumption is going into approving monthly cases returned from Local Offices to USCIS or these visas are utilized by EB3-Mexico. So far, for the current year as per I-485 inventory, EB3-Mexico has utilized 4010 visa numbers. These excess visa utilization suggests that either lot of old I-485 cases were denied for Mexico or DOS is trying to use as much visa numbers for EB3-Mexico to bring it to current EB3-ROW-P, PD of 08 October 2005, This way they do not have to worry about 7% utilization of annual cap that is required to maintain status of retrogressed countries going forward for next fiscal year. Other school of thought suggests that EB3-Mexico can also become 'U' for last two months of the quarter. EB3-P will have to move with EB3-ROW, no matter what for rest of the year.

EB2-India & China - EB2 India and China advanced to 08 March 2007 by utilizing at least 10,563 additional unused visa numbers from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5. It is expected that at this pace dates can reach July 2007 in August visa bulletin. In September bulletin either dates will become current or will move into first quarter of 2008. If available visa are less than 24K-11k(used for this bulletin) = 14K for remaining two months, then DOS can decide to stay put at 01 Aug 07. PWMBs will be enough to consume annual visa numbers for rest of the next fiscal year (not spillover). Chances for latter looks less as DOS would like to build some inventory for themselves to have fair cut-off date projection for next year spillover season. Once again, everyone keep your documents ready. Next two months could be full of roller coaster ride. It all depends if B's would Stanley Cup. (LOL ..just kidding). God Bless!!!


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295 comments:

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CM_USNonImmigrants said...

At least 6-8 months I will take. Earlier than that is possible.

sc said...

Hi CM,
I have one quick question. My PD is May 2007 EB2-I. Iam hoping that my pd will be current in July bulletin. When is the earliest that i can file my I-485?

Thanks in advance

Anonymous said...

Thank you for this wonderful website. My PD is October 20, 2005 under the EB3 ROW category. Do you think me PD will be current next month - August 2011 Bulettin?

Krishna said...

Hi CM, my PD is Oct 18, 2007 (EB2 - I). Will I be able to file I485 this year?
Thanks
Krishna

Sam Anand said...

thanks CM! so if it does not get current in next 2 months, do you think it will get to April 10, 2008 PD by Jan or Feb 2012? Thanks again!

Abbielim_69 said...

hi CM,

my PD is October 28, 2005, EB3 Philippines. what is the chances that ill be current by august 2011 visa bulletin? when do u think my PD becomes current and when can i have my GC? your prediction will be of great help. thanks.

SH said...

HI CM, I really appreciate your time. My PD is July 26th 2007 (EB2-NIW-India). Do you think I can get my green card in coming 3 months. Is there any chance that I can still get a RFE? I am currently working with my EAD.
THANKS IN ADVANCE!

Sanjeev said...

Hello CM,
What are the risks involved in changing jobs using AC21 on EAD? Say I meet the criteria of switching job after 180 days of filing I-485 and have a new offer with same/similar job.
Also can I still be on H1 with new employer?
Thanks,
Sanjeev

CM said...

Hi guys if you want to use email as "anonymous@us-non-immigrants.com" to post your comment do not change name from "Anonymous". In case you want to use your name (e.g - John) then use email address "John@us-non-immigrants.com". THANKs.

Anonymous said...

IMHO means In My Honest Opinion.

SN said...

Thanks, CM for the most thorough analysis on web I've ever encountered. I came across this site via Google and what I read on this blog is quite helpful and learning about the complete immigration process.

My PD is August 07, 2007 (Yes, I missed the boat of filing I-485 in 2007). As per your analysis, what are my chances of getting current this year?

SN said...

Forgot to mentioned it's EB-2.

Anonymous said...

CM : when are you posting the Aug bulletin predictions

CM said...

After talking to friend of mine who works at a big law firm, there is word out there that DOS/USCIS is planning to slow down the EB2-IC movement until PD July 2007 for this year and then instead of retrogressing dates, move them in each quarter next fiscal year as per demand and unused visa numbers. He also talked about some concerns that DOS/USCIS have about those who are waiting to file from PD July 2007, which is restricting them from advancing dates than required as those waiting are believed to be significant enough to take some spillover. (I was surprised to see him talking about PWMBs and significant numbers. He is unaware about us running this blog. Question is if all the statistics that is posted on internet by different sites like ours is ever viewed by DOS/USCIS. I doubt it). On asking about if available numbers will be more than the demand, will spillover be used towards EB3-ROW category, he suggested there is no information about it.

So now my take on this is this person has always provided me with mixed information. Sometime it happens to be right and some time wrong. So I am not at all confident in what he is saying. But I just wanted to share this information with our readers.

Personally, I still think EB2-IC will reach atleast December 2007 by end of this fiscal year. If not Q1 and Q2 will see such movement.

Since this whole situation is complicated and is nothing more than a waiting game, we will not make any predictions for EB2-IC for the coming two bulletins. We will just wait and observe what will happen. I had some pdated information that i wanted to share. You can take it or leave it as there is no estimation for what DOS will do with excess visa numbers.

avi Analyst said...

Hi CM , firstly thanks so much for your analysis and predictions. I have not found a better forum and resource to PD movements .

My PD is EB2 I Dec'4th . Do you think I stand any chance of becoming current this year in 2011.

Your comments are much appreciated.

To all brothers & sisters , lets hope Eb2 clears out asap and may the spillover do the magic for our EB3 brothers who are in line for years.

anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Thanks for the update. It is going to be difficult for folks like me to not have any predictions from you. We all know predictions are predictions and nothing is guaranteed. Anyways I respect you judgement to wait and let the things unfold.

One observation i would like to make. Dont you think USCIS and DOS should be aware of PWMBs? They have all the data. The statistics on this blog or others are taken out from the data published by them right? One of our known attorney was mentioning that the i-140s approval for the year 2008 were very less. Even that data will be available to DOS.

Lets us all hope that they look at all the statistics and make a sensible decision so that no visa nos will go waste.


MR

Jay said...

avi

You did not mention the year of PD.. Assuming 2007 you have 80-90% chance

Avi Analyst said...

Hey Jay thanks much . Hope it rings true ........yes my PD year is 2007.

CM said...

Personally I feel you ahve fair chance.

CM said...

I have think through it and there will be predictiosn for EB category including EB2-IC but with restricted access for folks who trust in our predictions and use them as a guideline. As mentioned prediction is solely based on estimation and is never guranateed. Password protected predictions will be posted by tonight.

Yes DOS/USCIS should be aware of PWMBs but we are not sure how much they take I-140 approval in consideration due to continuous turnover of employees and many folks having multiple I-140s. Statistics on these blog are taken from published data but who knows how much time would USCIS put into analyzing it. it will not happen unless they have dedicated team for it. In past, since DOS as organization got better they had only worked with demand based on documentarliy qualified applicants and inventory. They will run into guessing game for the first time for EB category. Only reason we still believe that dates can progress in quarter of 2008 is based on NVC received emails and similar jump and retrogression that happened with FB category last year when many folks started receving visa bill to pay fees for CP cases.

Less I-140 approval in 2008 does not guarantee less individuals with PDs in 2008/ PDs solely based on PERM filing and it can take years to approve them. In addition I-140 processing time was not great in 2008 for regular cases. Lot of 2008 approval happened in 2009 and 2010.

CM said...

Chances are very good.

CM said...

I will read this for AC21 and similar job classification issue and problem that you can run into - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/faq-on-ac21-portability-and-similar-job.html

I would highly encourage you to maintain H1-B with new employer in case anything goes wrong at i-485 level.

CM said...

if your date will become current by next bulletin, you will be greened by Sep 2011 for sure. Regarding RFE, it totally depends on if they have any open issues with your case. Example past RFE and response status still showing reviewing. Other than that if your FP are recent, you will be through this FY.

CM said...

You should be crrent in next bulletin. If your's is CP case then you may get interview in August and receive GC then and there. If your status is AOS pesnsing then add 1-2 months after getting current.

WL said...

Awesome!

Like I mentioned last time, I've missed out on the PD by 7 days. I eagerly await your Aug predictions.

CM said...

you can be current in March-April 2013

Mustafa said...

CM- please post your August Prediction, people like me totally trust them and use them as a guideline. So pls post your August prediction

avi Analyst said...

Thanks CM . Keeping fingers crossed.

eb2c said...

Hi CM: I am new to post here. But I read your blog every day. It is the best of all online about eb green card.
I have eb2c, priority date 09/19/07. If DOS is conservative in the next two vb and move eb2ic only to July 2007. What will they probably do at the beginning of the new fiscal year? Will it be staying there or slow movement every month? When do you predict that I can file 485 if this is the scenario and when to get gc?
Thank you and appreciate all your time and efforts!
eb2c

Caas said...

Hi CM / Experts: My PD is March 13 2007 (EB2I). I missed to apply I-485 in 2007 fiasco. If it's current in August bulletin do I need to apply for EAD and Adavance Parole? Thanks

Un4given said...

@ CM ?????????????????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SN said...

Thanks, CM.

Phxeagles said...

Hi CM,
I have a question about birth certificate. The place of birth in my birth certificate does not match with the one listed in my passport which is the city where i grew up rather than my birth place in a different state..how do i handle this? What kind of affidavit can i get? Plz let me know how to correct this.
My PD is Oct 7, 2007..Wat are the chances of being current by Sep? Another doubt i have is do we get EAD 90 days after initial 485 application or does 485 need to be pending for 6 months before applying for EAD? (No AC 21 portability involved, just EAD)..
Your answers really would clarify things for me
Appreciate your help!
Thanks a ton.

Hong said...

Hi CM,

Thank you for the great job you have done for us. You sure bring some light to the folks like me that have been working hard in decade here to get the green card.
My question is, my prority date is current per July VB. My finger print was done in 2007 when I file I-485. And never get any request to re-finger print, or anything else. Is that normal? As I am so close to get it now, I am anxious and also panic.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Thanks for your effort for giving helping hand to many people when we are trying to reach the unknown destination.
My PD is on 06/04/2007 EB2. What are the chances for August bulletin? My h1 is expiring on 07/15/2011 and extension has been applied but no response in the last 70 days.

ravi said...

Hi CM,
Thanks for your analysis and predictions. It is a great blog and I have been following this last few months. My Eb2I PD is July 27th 2007. Do you think this will be current in the 2011 fiscal year?

Sudheer said...

Hi CM,

My Priority date is DEC 19th 2007, do i have fair chance to apply 485?

Appreciate your efforts - Kudos

TI said...

Hi CM,
Your blog has been so helpful and hopeful for many of us. Do not weight on few people comments on your blog. It shows how less they care about the work your team is putting in this. Please do make August 2011 predictions. My Priority date is Sept 2007 and again like everyone else hoping mine to be current.

Thanks and keep up the great effort in predicting the unpredictable.

TI

CM said...

We will know more in September Bulletin. I will still say Dec 2007 is a possibility.

CM said...

i will do some calculations tonight and post predictions but I think October 20 is very much in for next bulletin.

CM said...

I guess you mean August Bulletin. Once you are current, you can only file starting 1st August 2011.

CM said...

Chances are 70-30 to get current. You can expect GC by Sep 2012-Nov 2012.

CM said...

You have to wait for 2-3 years more.

CM said...

I have done little analysis on FB but we can expect some small movments there until end of fiscal year (October)

CM said...

You can use our GC caclulator to calculate number of to see individuals after PD Aug 07 - PD Feb 08. Subtraction of two number/2.25 (family size) will give you estimate of PERMs approved between those PDs. For PWMBs you can check our post on "People Who Missed the Boat". I expect porting for next few years will be in same range as this year but with addition of more upgraders with later PD 2007.

Going forward next year all the EB2-ROW-M-P still waiting to get I-140/I-485 approval will take lot of visa numbers from next year spillvoer and All pending EB1-A-B-C approval due to recent Memo will eventually start getting approved after rigorous scrutiny. So in all EB1 and EB2-ROW consumption will go high. EB5 may also pick up due to enhancement in the program. I heard there is EB5 prgram conference in Boston MA on July 29. AILA is working rigoruosly to send some awareness about this program. It is impossible to say what spillover will be for next year but as of now we expect less numbers.

eb2c said...

Great! Apprecaite your efforts and like your thorough analysis just like others posted! Look forward to your new post!!! Nobody should blame any predictions in this crazy unpredictable world!

CM said...

Your case can become current this year or in next few months (8-9) We have to wait and see.

CM said...

NVC send emails only to those who has opted for CP for their I-485. This option has to be checked during filing I-140. NVC would sens such email to pay the fees when they will think that there is projected demand that can be cleared in coming months. Individuals with CP will not be qualified as documentarily qualified unless they pay such fees and then receive packet 3 from NVC to send all documents.

Anonymous said...

please post the predictions as usual and not bother about some people comments as many of us feel helpful

sc said...

I meant Auguest Bulletin. Thanks for the update.

Anonymous said...

Dec 19th is my birthday. I sure do hope you get in. I will wait for the experts to reply to you, but this is my take. Dates will go to Mid 2008 at least till April end in September bulletin, and then come back to June 2007 in the next month, which is beginning of new fiscal year.

Santosh said...

CM

We love your blog. Please post your predictions as usual.

eb2c said...

Dear All:

I suggest we let CM concentrate on working on the August VB calculations tonight!

Ravichand said...

CM,

You give us hope to carry on with our stressful immigrant life. Please continue to provide your predictions. I think we are all aware of prediction uncertainty and you are doing your best based on limited data you have.

Noor said...

thank you CM you are the greatest :)

choy said...

hello .. Cm this is choy..when we know the August visa bulliten prediction?? we are excited to know.. =) thanks...

OhioRN2006 said...

ouch!

Usnonimmigrants said...

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/06/august-2011-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

CM predictions are here. Send your requests to CM.

choy said...

how can we see the August visa bulliten prediction??? thanks choy...

CM said...

Choy check your email. I have send you password automatically. Going forward please make sure your email subject line is ""August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions". Your's was not , hence email was never sent.

choy said...

ok thanks..

Atul said...

hi CM,

do you think that tracking EAD/AP approval trend for EB2-IC for PD's after March 2007 will indicate something ? Since this is the time that lot of those approvals or renewals are going on (July 2007 fiasco period and late 2007) and may be a quick survey may be able to shed some light on USCIS strategy ? Whether they are giving 6 months EAD or another 1 year EAD or just holding those applications to see if the dates get current ? Just thought of tossing a thought to you and have your take on it.

Pesalaveeru said...

Do we need to have a password to view the August predictions?

Nikiagl said...

Hi CM
How Can I get the pass word to view August predictions ?

Phxeagles said...

Waiting for your reply and clarifications. I know u've been busy : ) Thanks CM

Nikiagl said...

Never mind , I got it .

CM said...

Sorry bro
Best way to handle this will be to correct it on passport or just forget about the BC and say that you were born at home and use affidavits and school certificates as an evidence. Non Availability Certificate will be helpful.

Personally I feel chances are good. Apply for EAD with application and you will receive it in 60-90 days. Once you will receive you can only use it after 6 months from I-485 pending date and I-140 aproval (in case concurrent filed case). Once you use EAD it automatically provoke's AC21 portability and your new job should be same or similar in description and classification by 50%. (See categories on left and click AC21)

Phxeagles said...

Thanks CM. I appreciate your reply. Does my wife also need to wait 6 months from the 485 filing date to start a job on EAD? She is currently on H -4 .
Thanks for your help.

CM said...

For Indian applicants without Birth Certificate, this is the excerpt from the document as per DOS, that USCIS will see before issuing the RFE on BC.

"Available. Prior to l970, the reporting of births was voluntary. Birth certificates of Europeans, Anglo-Indians, Armenian Christians, Jews and Parsis born prior to l970 may be obtained from the State Registrar General of Births, Deaths, and Marriages. No standard or uniform certificate is issued by the authorities. In addition, acceptable certificates may often be obtained from the municipal and rural registration records, which are maintained under the state laws. Europeans, Anglo-Indians, and Indian Christians are usually able to obtain church baptismal certificates.

Under the Registration of Births and Deaths Act of l969, births are required to be registered in almost all of the States and Union Territories of India. Birth certificates are available to any applicant born on or after April l, l970, upon payment of a nominal fee to the appropriate authority.

In cases where birth certificates from the authorities are unavailable or contain insufficient information regarding the birth or the parents, a sworn affidavit executed by either the parents, if living, or other close relatives older than the applicant, may be submitted. It should set forth the relationship between the deponent and the applicant, how well the deponent knows the applicant, date and place of the applicant's birth, the names of both parents, and any other related facts. Such an affidavit, when a birth certificate is unavailable, should be accompanied by a document from a competent governmental authority confirming that the certificate does not exist, or no longer exists. "

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

She can start as soon as she gets EAD

Vzg Scorpion said...

CM, I appreciate all the detailed predictions. I am curious to know when the August 2011 predictions will be published.

CM said...

They are already published, please check Home Page for details

Phxeagles said...

Thanks a ton CM. Appreciate this post : )

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Atul thank you for sharing your wonderful idea with us. But I think EAD/AP approval is handled by different part of USCIS in some case different service centers where as I-485/I-140 is handled in TSC/NSC. Usually these centers do not communicate to each other. I have seen cases where EAD/AP approved after green card approval. So I am not sure how much information this will reveal. We have just added I-485 case tracker for cases that became current recently. in there I have added EAD/Ap approval notice date as per your suggestion.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thanks Ravi

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thanks for your support.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thanks TI

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Sudheer fair chance. We will know more in August Bulletin.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Since you have filed H1B extension you are in status after 15 July as well. Do not worry. You will be current this FY for sure. Fingers crossed.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

As far as I know you should be pre-adjudicated. If they have more questions then they will let you know once your PD will be current from 1st July. In most case since FP is that old you might get call for biometrics. Chances are 50-50. Most of the people who filed 2007 got second FP notice in 209.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Starting few months back, I-485 fees include EAD/AP fee automatically. You just need to fill forms. If you will not send I-765 and I-131 then also fee will taken in full but EAD/AP will not be issued. It is advisable to file for EAD/AP and then not to use it once received to maintain H1B status.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

EB2C- if not in this two bulletin then in Q2 or Q3 as PWMB will keep DOS overwhelmed for some time.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Fair chance ravi. Lets see hwo August bulletin will shake things up.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thank you all.

guest said...

You can apply for BC through Indian Consulate.

Anonymous said...

H1b extension is approved...Thanks

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

BC issued at consulate is not acceptable as evidence of birth by USICIS as those BCs are issued based on passport. Consualte issued BC can be used as supporting document to Non-Availability Certificate and 2 affidavits.

Damitngbayan said...

goodluck bro.. kamo na ang next in line :)

Behdad said...

I am a bit confused, although in the table on the US Visa Bulletin for family-based category three it says July 2001, here you are saying for most of the countries it would be 2003. Would you please explain it to me how it works?

Many Thanks

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

That's typo. Read is 2001. Thank you for pointing it out.

Cindy said...

Hi CM,
I enjoy your blog so much. it is very informative. I hope to get your insight of my case: My priority date was Feb 2006, but my attorney filed Eb3 which was a mistake bc i held two Master Degrees. When I filed my daughter was under 21, who was my dependent. Judging from VB, I don't know how long I still need to wait, and my daughter has long passed 21. Is there possibility that I refile EB2?

Many THANKS!

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

As long as your employer can support that then yes you can file even for same job as long as your job qualifies that you need MS or BS+5 years minimum. What country do you belong to?

Friends Here said...

Hi CM,

My PD is November, 2007 EB2-India. Can you let me know when I can expect it to to be current?
thanks!

Anku Patel4618 said...

my catagori is f2a i had paid my visa fee in jan 2011 can u tell me hou much time it wii takefor visa call?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

What is your priority date?

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