Data beyond July 2007
Spillover Estimation - System will recommend spillover that we expect to receive in coming years for each country and category .
EB2-India & China - PERM distribution for different priority date in EB2 - India and China was calculated. This distribution will control how spillover will be distributed among EB2-IC as dates will progress for different Priority Dates. System would try to average the Spillover among EB2-India and China in such a way that number of years required to reach similar PDs are as close as possible. For each fiscal year, system assumes following spillover. 
In general distribution of EB2-IC PERM Ratio for different PD year is as shown below. 
In general, waiting time for Indian nationals in EB2 and EB3 category looks terrible. Since density of applicants per month in EB2-India is so high, that in long run EB2-China will not receive majority of spillover (couple hundred or few thousands). Since EB2 will not be cleared for atleast next 5-6 years, spillover expeccted to EB3 category is minimum. EB3-India will get some indirect- spillover each year due to EB3 to EB2 upgrades or porting which will cause queue to clear faster than anticipated. Individuals with PD close to 2004 -2006 will see ample benefit of this every year. Apparently, if EB2-I will stop receiving spillover or receive minimum spillover in coming years, wait time for EB3-India and EB2-India will end up same. If you will note EB3-India has only 102k estimated demand vs. 165k for EB2-India for PD - March 2011. This whole ordeal is very depressing and visa recapture bill is only hope for EB community.
In addition, you can also put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario. Please see assumptions below. Please ensure that you enter "User ENTERED" value exactly as shown in table below.
PWMB - PWMB is taken care of in green card calculator. In general PWMB number for a PD month is added to the current inventory for the successive PD month. For e.g. if PWMB for EB3-ROW with PD Sep -2005 is '50' , this number is added in PD Oct-2005 inventory. This is done because that demand will not be realised until specific PD will become current. Please click here to see post that refers PWMB for EB3 category.
For EB2-India and China, PWMB is added to the following inventory assuming PD in coming visa bulletin will move in increments as stated in table below.
It is assumed that 7% of the total annual EB Visa Numbers (140,000) are allocated to each of the four retrogressed countries while the remaining 72% visa numbers are available to the Rest of the World. Visa numbers allotment for EB4 and EB5 are considered separately.
Please click Here to check Updated Green Card Calculator
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62 comments:
CM -
I am confused. I see that you have updated your predictions, but why do things look so bleak for EB2 from your May 28th report?
VN
Please check the calculator as it is not correct, it is showing dates way different than it previoulsy showed
Hi CM,
In your previous version of the GC calculator for a ROW-EB3 with a PD Dec-2008, the approximate wait time to receive a GC was about TWO YEARS. The new version of the calculator however now gives a waiting time of FOUR YEARS! That is a 100% increase with respect to the previous version. Is the new version of the calculator working OK? maybe some bug in there? Will you please comment about it?
Please do not misread any of this as a criticism (after all the GC Calc is just yielding a prediction.) We all appreciate your time, dedication and patience. These are just genuine questions.
Thanks.
CM - i agree with VN, i am confused as well. why things look so bad last 4 days? looks like you are now telling different story all together?
I agree, really same with my EB2, now it is showing 4 years which was showing 2 years, please don't take this wrong way. Just want to understnad why this post is so negative and what changed in last 4 days in your calculator?
Hi CM,
I agree with above comments. My EB2-I Feb 2009 was showing 1 yr 10months. Now it shows 4 yrs 10 months. Do you think the High number of EB2 after July 2007 till Feb 2009 is so high?
What is the impact of this change to the Max.Prediction for Sep 2011 that was said Oct 2007 to C?
- SS
Hi CM,
I really appreciate all the effort that you put in coming up with this GC Calculator. However, I'm really confused because the updated version made our wait much longer. It went from 4 yrs 11 mos to 6 yrs 2 mos for PD July 2008 EB3 Philippines.
Can you please enlighten me on this? Thanks in advance.
MS
Hello CM. THANK YOU VERY MUCH for the updated calculator. If I am right some of the datas were not yet included on your old GC calculator so it's right to say your GC calculator as of now is almost accurate? Or are there any datas still not included in the calculations? Anyway you did a very good job here , its been a very big help to us. thanks again - March 09 EB3P
Hi CM,
Don't take me wrong but then also above explanation doesn't sound correct. My PD is Nov 2008 (EB2-I). As per calculator now it will take 4 year 7 month with 15000 spill over. And It is assumed that dates will move to July 2007 in visa bulletin of Sep 2011. And as per my knowledge it won't retrogress in October 2011 (if it move to July 2007 only), Then how it can take 4 years and 7 month
Looks like calculations are made using monthly perm data. is it possible to input date value also instead of only month?.
Hello everyone,please refrain from complaining about your extended GC calculations. CM is doing us a great favor so we may know how long we may wait for the time being. If anyone of you is dissatisfied about this site , you have the door. There are other websites you can blog. Anyway CM thanks for this wonderful site. KEEP UP THE VERY GOOD WORK!. THANK YOU.
Hello CM im just curious about spillover of visa from EB2 to Eb3, is there any possibility that EB3 from phil.will get any spillover? if ever, how many?
Few reasons for increase as I mentioned later in my post are
) Earlier annual PERM data was NOT distributed as per Priority Date but was simply divided among each month assuming equal applications number. This is not true. Number of applications for each category is increased for PD 2008 and PD 2009 due to recent approvals of audit cases. Data now is strictly divided as per Priority date (with error of +/- 5 days). For each PERM approval family size is assumed 2.25. There may be many individuals with late PD 2010-PD 2011 who are single but by the time they will get green card, annual family size may increase.
Again that 50:50 ratio holds true for demand upto March 2011 in full or total. In between ratio changes a lot especially in 2008, it is almost 65:35. Earlier 13000 PWMB (including dependents) were not considered for EB3-ROW. Right now upto December 2008 from July 2007, Total PERM approved is 25,857 for EB3-ROW. Out of which 12,088 PERMs are approved after CY 2009. You have PERM number and you can assume the family size (we assume 2.25) and do the math to calculate wait time. I am sorry that whole wait time has increased but with time we want to get close to reality. Dividing data as per Priority date was important in this case.
Anonymous said...
Hi CM,
In your previous version of the GC calculator for a ROW-EB3 with a PD Dec-2008, the approximate wait time to receive a GC was about TWO YEARS. The new version of the calculator however now gives a waiting time of FOUR YEARS! That is a 100% increase with respect to the previous version. Is the new version of the calculator working OK? maybe some bug in there? Will you please comment about it?
Please do not misread any of this as a criticism (after all the GC Calc is just yielding a prediction.) We all appreciate your time, dedication and patience. These are just genuine questions.
Thanks.
As mentioned previously dates may still reach June -July 2007 if we get 21k spillover. After that PWMB will cause things to stop for some time. There was also an error is spillover as pointed by some of you. That is also fixed. In long run things does not look great due to lot of EB2 India PERM applications which may affect EB2-C in long run as well. Things will slow down after December 2008-March 2009.
Some one is other post also pointed about double filings for audit cases and case where husband and wife both file for PERM application. I have no basis to calculate any percentage of this but this seems like a good point. If you guys would help we can open a poll about this to reduce the PERM data later FY 2007. This is ongoing effort and it will take time for us to reach a point where we can be perfect.
Anonymous said...
CM -
I am confused. I see that you have updated your predictions, but why do things look so bleak for EB2 from your May 28th report?
VN
Anonymous said...
CM - i agree with VN, i am confused as well. why things look so bad last 4 days? looks like you are now telling different story all together?
Anonymous said...
I agree, really same with my EB2, now it is showing 4 years which was showing 2 years, please don't take this wrong way. Just want to understnad why this post is so negative and what changed in last 4 days in your calculator?
Anonymous said...
Hi CM,
I agree with above comments. My EB2-I Feb 2009 was showing 1 yr 10months. Now it shows 4 yrs 10 months. Do you think the High number of EB2 after July 2007 till Feb 2009 is so high?
What is the impact of this change to the Max.Prediction for Sep 2011 that was said Oct 2007 to C?
- SS
Please guys just calm down and let us try to keep things clean on this blog. I would like everyone to understand that this whole blog is a voluntary effort & ads free. I tend to contribute to it as when I get time after work and on weekends. I am sorry but I have a personal life and family to whom I owe time. My wife is already being very patient with me. There are times I am spending sleepless nights and extensive hours on weekend to contribute here. I understand that I should not complain about this after starting the blog but some of the comments were uncalled for.
Increase in time is purely because of PWMBs and segregation of PERM data on basis of priority date. I would soon share the PERM data with you guys and then please feel free to change family size and estimate time. THANKS.
Hello CM im just curious about spillover of visa from EB2 to Eb3, is there any possibility that EB3 from phil.will get any spillover? if ever, how many?
if you have time pls. reply..tnx
Hi CM,
We do appreciate a lot for the effort you have taken put together this bolg and update with information and most importantly answering lot of questions. I saw few people entered some unnecessary comments.M ost of us are disapointed with reality. It really hurts but doesn't justify their words. I want to tell you your time isn't wasted, but used to help a lot people like me. Keep up your good job.
-SS
CM -
On behalf of the visitor community (I have assumed that they needed a representative :)), I wanted to thank you for providing us the ability to predict when our long awaited moment would arrive, not based on a random guestimate, but based on logical and sound mathematical reasoning. None of the other immigration blogs around has ever been able to come anywhere close to this. We owe you big for such an effort, and can appreciate the long hours and patience from all of your family.
The only reason people have been unnerved a bit (?!) is because you had all of us elated a couple of days back, when you indicated shorter wait period, but brought us down crashing with a renewed estimate based on reality. Obviously, we were hoping that your calculations were wrong (personally I am still hoping that your code has a bug, or a mathematical error :) ), but as you can see, reality hurts!!
Again, thank you very much for the effort! Sorry for the jabs from the disillusioned folks!
-VN
To CM,
Thank you for all the time and effort in putting all of these for all of us. It means so much, very informative. You're so kind to us. Some people may have forgotten the real essence of putting up this blogsite but then always remember, no one can let a good and wise man down.
God bless you and your family.
Hannahlu =)
Dear CM,
I really appreciate your efforts and believe your estimates are the closest among all such estimates out there in terms of reliability, accuracy and dynamics. A big "THANK YOU" from the entire non-immigrant coummunity.
I just have one item to point out. You are using the prevailing/actual wage data from DOL to allocate PERM applications between EB2 and EB3. While this is no doubt the best way to approach it, you may also need to keep in mind the Prevailing wage variances depending on the area of the country.
To illustrate, a junior software applications developer with a requirement of BS+3 (EB3 job) in the New Jersey/New York area or the San Francisco bay area may require a wage of 90,000 in Level 2. In contrast, a Senior Project Manager with a requirement of MS + 4 (EB2 job) in east Texas or Mississippi may require a 90,000 wage in Level 4.
I know there is so much you can do but adding a state-wise wage index to your calculations may make your PERM allocation estimates more accurate.
Dear CM:
My PD is September, 2007. Can you give a prediction when it will be current?
Hi CM:
First of all thank you for your blog. It provided me lot of information.
I have 3 questions,
I am EB2-India (with I 140 approved ) with PD is April, 2007. Can you give a prediction when it will be current?
I have 2 kids and both born here ( Citizens ), do i still need to include them when i file I 485 along with my wife?
Do you suggest to finish medical and other formalities before my PD becomes current?
I appreciate your help
Thanks
RM
Thanks so much for your help. Keep up the good work. God Bless you .
Swati
As of now calculator considers everything from USCIS to CP demand to processing times. Data from here will get better as dates will progress and real inventory will come out each quarter.
Anonymous said...
Hello CM. THANK YOU VERY MUCH for the updated calculator. If I am right some of the datas were not yet included on your old GC calculator so it's right to say your GC calculator as of now is almost accurate? Or are there any datas still not included in the calculations? Anyway you did a very good job here , its been a very big help to us. thanks again - March 09 EB3P
I have tried input dates for PDs during EB2-IC Prediction implementation but Excel Web Application tends to bog down due to heavy calculations.
Anonymous said...
Looks like calculations are made using monthly perm data. is it possible to input date value also instead of only month?.
@SS Thank you for your kind words. Support from you guys keeps us going. :)
@VN I understand the frustration but at the same time that is the reality. Numbers could be very high based on PERM data but in actuality I do not expect 100% of demand to get converted in I-485. i wish I was wrong either hence I said this whole ordeal depresses me a lot.
EB immigration was and will never be priority for anyone unless everyone one work together towards some common issues.
@Hannahlu =) As always thank you for your kind words.
Thank you for appreciating our efforts.
You are right about it, there could be lot of difference due difference in PWD data from state to state but there is so much I can do about it. I will try to research about state-wise wage index. That's a great idea. THANKS.
If you have any information on how to use state-wise wage index, email me at usnonimmigrants@gmail.com .
Anonymous said...
Dear CM,
I really appreciate your efforts and believe your estimates are the closest among all such estimates out there in terms of reliability, accuracy and dynamics. A big "THANK YOU" from the entire non-immigrant coummunity.
I just have one item to point out. You are using the prevailing/actual wage data from DOL to allocate PERM applications between EB2 and EB3. While this is no doubt the best way to approach it, you may also need to keep in mind the Prevailing wage variances depending on the area of the country.
To illustrate, a junior software applications developer with a requirement of BS+3 (EB3 job) in the New Jersey/New York area or the San Francisco bay area may require a wage of 90,000 in Level 2. In contrast, a Senior Project Manager with a requirement of MS + 4 (EB2 job) in east Texas or Mississippi may require a 90,000 wage in Level 4.
I know there is so much you can do but adding a state-wise wage index to your calculations may make your PERM allocation estimates more accurate.
If not this year and dates reach July 2007 in FY 2011, then in July-August next year.
Anonymous said...
Dear CM:
My PD is September, 2007. Can you give a prediction when it will be current?
@RM
Please see inline comments.
Hi CM:
First of all thank you for your blog. It provided me lot of information.
I have 3 questions,
I am EB2-India (with I 140 approved ) with PD is April, 2007. Can you give a prediction when it will be current?
Answer - It should be current in August-September time frame.
I have 2 kids and both born here ( Citizens ), do i still need to include them when i file I 485 along with my wife?
Answer - ONLY your wife
Do you suggest to finish medical and other formalities before my PD becomes current?
Answer - W.R.T. Medical, you can complete now as it is valid for one year. Wait until July bulletin to make any decision. July bulletin is important for rest of the year movement.
I appreciate your help
Thanks
RM
Hello CM thanks a lot for your help. Quick question my PD is July 2007 india EB2 can you tell me when can this be current ?
CM:
You have been an amazing resource for people like us who are perennially waiting. Few questions for you:
- I am an engineer with MS..my green card was filed under EB2 (NIW) early this year (PD 2011).. based on your calculator, it will take ages..I am also getting a part-time MBA that will be finished in 2013-14. Do you think while I wait in the queue with an approved i140, I could swtich to another job-function (within the same company).. more focused on the business part of the engg work?
- Do you think "Reuniting Families Act" if passed, would help employment based GCs? Are you hopeful of that?
CM, you say "Every application will use on average 2.25 visa numbers based on family size". Is this Immigrant visa numbers that you talk about? per USCIS website, that is incorrect. Visa numbers used immediate family members (dependent spouse/kids<22/parents) are not counted against the total count. I can point you to the file if you want. - AB
Thank you for the post AB. You might be confusing it with something else but I still want to look at the file so that we can clarify this. Every individual in the family owns it's I-485 and consumes one immigrant visa.
Anonymous said...
CM, you say "Every application will use on average 2.25 visa numbers based on family size". Is this Immigrant visa numbers that you talk about? per USCIS website, that is incorrect. Visa numbers used immediate family members (dependent spouse/kids<22/parents) are not counted against the total count. I can point you to the file if you want. - AB
Hi CM,
Thank you for your efforts and for your blog. Your blog is very knowledgeble for the immigration community. Hatts off to you.
I felt sad reading some of the comments here. I don't understand how people expect too much and demanding with out doing anything from there side. You are sharing your knowledge for free by investing lots of valuable hours in this blog.
I really hope people understand your efforts as most of the people visit this site are educated people or IT people (they might be knowing how much time & brain will take to create a such a cool GC calculator).
Once again..Thank you to you and your family. Keep up the good work.
I wish you all the best for your future.
Thanks,
Siri
Hello CM im just curious about spillover of visa from EB2 to Eb3, is there any possibility that EB3 from phil.will get any spillover? if ever, how many?
if you have time pls. reply..tnx
July Bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html
EB2I&C Moved to 08MAR2007
Time for aug predictions :)
Once again ROW 3rd screw. When you think Jan 06 ROW 3rd will be current?
@CM You are right. I was mistaken. The spouse, kid thing is only for US citizens. Thanks! -AB
Go pursue your dream and get your MBA and work in the field you like. Since your I-140 is approved your PD is tied to your alien number. Your company has to file new PERM and I-140 for the new job to recapture your old PD.
Anonymous said...
CM:
You have been an amazing resource for people like us who are perennially waiting. Few questions for you:
- I am an engineer with MS..my green card was filed under EB2 (NIW) early this year (PD 2011).. based on your calculator, it will take ages..I am also getting a part-time MBA that will be finished in 2013-14. Do you think while I wait in the queue with an approved i140, I could swtich to another job-function (within the same company).. more focused on the business part of the engg work?
- Do you think "Reuniting Families Act" if passed, would help employment based GCs? Are you hopeful of that?
Do you think "Reuniting Families Act" if passed, would help employment based GCs? Are you hopeful of that?
- Yes it will for sure. We should work together to get this passed. This will be very helpful. It may not pass until new president will take office. Bill considers
Recapture of Immigrant Visas Lost to Bureaucratic Delay – The bill recaptures unused employment-based and family-sponsored visas from fiscal years 1992-2011. For future fiscal years, unused visa numbers will “roll over” to the next fiscal year.
• Reclassification of Spouses & Minor Children of Green Card Holders as Immediate Relatives – The bill helps spouses and children under the age of 21 of lawful permanent residents who are waiting in line to reunite with their families by reclassifying them as immediate relatives.
• Country Limits – The bill addresses the decades-long backlogs for certain countries by raising the per-country immigration limits from 7 percent to 10 percent of total admissions.
* Retention of Priority Dates – The bill protects children not currently protected by the Child Status Protection Act because of a drafting error from aging out of the visa application process as a result of processing delays on the part of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services or the Department of State. The bill also provides that a beneficiary of any family or employment-based petition shall retain his or her earliest priority date regardless of the category of subsequent petitions.
@Siri Thank you for kind words.
Not for EB3-P for longtime.
Anonymous said...
Hello CM im just curious about spillover of visa from EB2 to Eb3, is there any possibility that EB3 from phil.will get any spillover? if ever, how many?
if you have time pls. reply..tnx
Do you think "Reuniting Families Act" if passed, would help employment based GCs? Are you hopeful of that?
- Yes it will for sure. We should work together to get this passed. This will be very helpful. It may not pass until new president will take office. Bill considers
Recapture of Immigrant Visas Lost to Bureaucratic Delay – The bill recaptures unused employment-based and family-sponsored visas from fiscal years 1992-2011. For future fiscal years, unused visa numbers will “roll over” to the next fiscal year.
• Reclassification of Spouses & Minor Children of Green Card Holders as Immediate Relatives – The bill helps spouses and children under the age of 21 of lawful permanent residents who are waiting in line to reunite with their families by reclassifying them as immediate relatives.
• Country Limits – The bill addresses the decades-long backlogs for certain countries by raising the per-country immigration limits from 7 percent to 10 percent of total admissions.
* Retention of Priority Dates – The bill protects children not currently protected by the Child Status Protection Act because of a drafting error from aging out of the visa application process as a result of processing delays on the part of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services or the Department of State. The bill also provides that a beneficiary of any family or employment-based petition shall retain his or her earliest priority date regardless of the category of subsequent petitions.
Once again ROW 3rd screw. When you think Jan 06 ROW 3rd will be current?
Hello CM im just curious about spillover of visa from EB2 to Eb3, is there any possibility that EB3 from phil.will get any spillover? if ever, how many?
if you have time pls. reply..tnx
@RM
Please see inline comments.
Hi CM:
First of all thank you for your blog. It provided me lot of information.
I have 3 questions,
I am EB2-India (with I 140 approved ) with PD is April, 2007. Can you give a prediction when it will be current?
Answer - It should be current in August-September time frame.
I have 2 kids and both born here ( Citizens ), do i still need to include them when i file I 485 along with my wife?
Answer - ONLY your wife
Do you suggest to finish medical and other formalities before my PD becomes current?
Answer - W.R.T. Medical, you can complete now as it is valid for one year. Wait until July bulletin to make any decision. July bulletin is important for rest of the year movement.
I appreciate your help
Thanks
RM
I have tried input dates for PDs during EB2-IC Prediction implementation but Excel Web Application tends to bog down due to heavy calculations.
Anonymous said...
Looks like calculations are made using monthly perm data. is it possible to input date value also instead of only month?.
Hi CM,
We do appreciate a lot for the effort you have taken put together this bolg and update with information and most importantly answering lot of questions. I saw few people entered some unnecessary comments.M ost of us are disapointed with reality. It really hurts but doesn't justify their words. I want to tell you your time isn't wasted, but used to help a lot people like me. Keep up your good job.
-SS
Few reasons for increase as I mentioned later in my post are
) Earlier annual PERM data was NOT distributed as per Priority Date but was simply divided among each month assuming equal applications number. This is not true. Number of applications for each category is increased for PD 2008 and PD 2009 due to recent approvals of audit cases. Data now is strictly divided as per Priority date (with error of +/- 5 days). For each PERM approval family size is assumed 2.25. There may be many individuals with late PD 2010-PD 2011 who are single but by the time they will get green card, annual family size may increase.
Again that 50:50 ratio holds true for demand upto March 2011 in full or total. In between ratio changes a lot especially in 2008, it is almost 65:35. Earlier 13000 PWMB (including dependents) were not considered for EB3-ROW. Right now upto December 2008 from July 2007, Total PERM approved is 25,857 for EB3-ROW. Out of which 12,088 PERMs are approved after CY 2009. You have PERM number and you can assume the family size (we assume 2.25) and do the math to calculate wait time. I am sorry that whole wait time has increased but with time we want to get close to reality. Dividing data as per Priority date was important in this case.
Anonymous said...
Hi CM,
In your previous version of the GC calculator for a ROW-EB3 with a PD Dec-2008, the approximate wait time to receive a GC was about TWO YEARS. The new version of the calculator however now gives a waiting time of FOUR YEARS! That is a 100% increase with respect to the previous version. Is the new version of the calculator working OK? maybe some bug in there? Will you please comment about it?
Please do not misread any of this as a criticism (after all the GC Calc is just yielding a prediction.) We all appreciate your time, dedication and patience. These are just genuine questions.
Thanks.
Hi CM,
I really appreciate all the effort that you put in coming up with this GC Calculator. However, I'm really confused because the updated version made our wait much longer. It went from 4 yrs 11 mos to 6 yrs 2 mos for PD July 2008 EB3 Philippines.
Can you please enlighten me on this? Thanks in advance.
MS
Please check the calculator as it is not correct, it is showing dates way different than it previoulsy showed
can you tell us how to use this calculator? I cannot seem to find it available as a link or anything. I looked at this page multiple times. Do we need to download the excel webapp... if so, then what are the next steps.
Just make sure JavaScript is ON on your computer. You should Able to use it without doing anything, What explorer and OS are you using.
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