Thursday, September 22, 2011

November 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category


Thursday, September 22, 2011 | , , , , , , ,

November Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for November 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.




November 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions






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123 comments:

Kabayan said...

CM, thank you for the November 2011 predictions.

Kabayan

k.sh said...

thank you CM for the hard work you have done
k.sh

IABEN said...

Thanks CM for your reliable prediction. Hopefully and in God's will, I'll be current next vb. Good luck to all.

Nurse EB3-Phil said...

Thanks a ton CM for the Nov. predictions. at least we can see 2006 pd's now, as mine is Feb. 8, 2006, hoping I will be current next VB?

Medelio said...

CM.

Thanks for the Nov. predictions, at least we can see 2006 pd's now for Row, Phil. Mexico.
As for me is Feb. 8, 2006, hoping I will be current next VB?

Thanks!!!

Trey429 said...

CM,

Thanks for the predictions.
When do you think Dec 2007 eb3-P will become current. Thanks...

Agustuus said...

no hope for eb3 consular or outside USA application...only miracle can help you dont expect because you are only less than 3% of the 140K qouta.

PS said...

Thanks CM, great work as usual. Big fan of your blog!
In your analysis for Oct Vb, you have indicated that quarterly spillover estimated in Q1 is about 4425. Will this spillover be give to I+C in Q1 itself or if they will wait till Q3/Q4?
I always thought that spillover took place in later quarters. Can you please clarify ?
Thank you !!!

Dred said...

CM,

Thanks for all the help and support you have been providing, we are all so grateful for it.
My PD is Sept 2006, EB2 India. I changed my employer in April 2007 and missed the window .The 485 app filed by my current employer was received on July 5th(Nebraska center) . Do you think I have a chance of getting the approval in the next two months. With the start of the new fiscal year for the USCIS in October, would my chance of getting a visa be like a lottery.
Thank you so much again...

Armadillo said...

Can you post the formula using which you made the educated guess?

merlion RN said...

hi CM,thanks for your input.Seeing your educated guess for the next visa bulletin November 2011 puts a big smile on my face since my priority date is March,2006.Hoping before 2011 is over,my PD will be current.

Americandream said...

really? seems you are really disappointed on your american dream. anyways its your life not ours.

Agustuus said...

Sure 100% try to make a research it is on the uscis web page, visa for Eb category petition, 85% goes to applicant who are presently in the USA known as adjustment of status and to those consular proseccing known as outside USA applicant 15% only world wide that includes all eb category...try to figure it out if you have the mind to think..sooo dont expect much that is the reality..better for you guys apply to other country while waiting for 20 more years unless,! there will be changes or mandate from the congress to activate the schedule A eb3...but that is not going to be happen unemployment in the USA is so high and thier are a lot of incoming LVN,LPN -RN program in the USA as of this time..why? They are going to hire from foriegn country if they have incoming nurses..To suffer ther graduates???/Answer it?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Thanks for the great work, the predictions for EB2I look realistic to me.

Hope I'll be able to file for AOS for the PD of Aug 9th 2007.

Sam Anand1976 said...

Hi CM, thanks for the continued great work! My PD is Apr 2008. Based on your predictions, do you think it should reach my PD in early 2012? Thanks.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

In one or two VBs.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

2-2.5 years.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

There is no quota for CP. As long as AOS or CP applicant have same PD, green card will be given irrespective. Well statistically people who apply at CP thru EB are only 3-15% of those who apply thru AOS.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Rules allow quarterly spillover but DOS always try to remain conservative and provides total in last quarter. Since DOS has moved dates more than the annual limit for the I+C, they have to use quarterly spillover.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yes I am sure if your is clean case you will get in 2 months as NSC has processing time of 4 months, good luck.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You calculate numbers that will be used for Sep VB and then subtract that from total demand to predict next months bulletin.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Sam, received your email but did not get chance to reply. PD April 2008 if will be current will only be current in June 2012 realistically. But anything happen with DOS deciding to get some demand for FY 2012.

Sat2010 said...

My PD is June 1, 2008 in EB2, and my daughter will ageout in Nov 2011.However My I140 took almost 8 months. Is there any chance that my date becomes current in near future?

Sanddune said...

CM, what are the chances for EB2-I Dec 7th PD??

Valernyl said...

this is a very good news for EB3 applicants phil/Row with early 2006 priority dates.....god bless us all

PS said...

Thank you CM! I was trying to find this answer everywhere and couldn't. So, people who are current in Oct have a good chance of approval.. and there will be more visas available and not just 250/month for Indian EB2. That's a relief to know !!!!

Elizabeth said...

Not sure if signing the below petition would help. Please consider signing if you care.

https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions#!/petition/allow-seriously-backlogged-eb2eb3-beneficiaries-their-i-140-approved-file-i-485-and-apply-ead-ap/d3D62yTt

Anonymous said...

CM, let us know when you get to know from your lawyer friend. He has been very helpful and his information has been quite accurate in recent past.

Anonymous said...

I meant about the EB2 I/C dates movement, any information your friend has about upcoming intake.

Neo said...

i hope the White house mean what they say not just full politics..

Tria said...

hello CM, My PD is 14th Aug 2011. When do you expect it to be current?

Guest said...

Employer withrew H1B with out informing
I have a question. Been on h1b and currently in my 5th yr .

The first three years of h1b , in 2009 bad recession and I took a job for a few months in Canada while having an inderstanding with my then employer that he would keep my h1b open . one weekend when I drove in to USA my employer told me that he accidentally informed uscis that i'm no longer employed . It seems he did it in May of 2008 and told me first time August, knowing that I immediately applied for H4 since spouse is on h1b with approved 140 . I confronted my employer and he gave me a letter stating that I worked till Aug of 2009. I believe for over 2 months I was technically out of status. Luckily I got h4 approved in nov and the following month I also got a job and new employer coverted me from h4 to h1 successfully. Worked for a year and switched job again and now the new employer transferred h1B .

What is giving me sleepless nights is , my spouse is close to file her I 485 and I along with her will be filing I 485 . As a dependent , I'm worried if they will catch those 2.5 months I was not in status since I applied h4 later . Dont have any pay stubs except the letter given my employer. Please advise . Since that episode I got 2 h4 petitions approved and 2 h1bs approved .

proud indian said...

Hi CM,

I had a question about my PD. I have a PD of Aug 08 EB2 I, last yr i switched jobs and my current employer has started the GC process again and have labor approved.

There is a very good opportunity at my previous company again thats come up. So if i switch again without applying for I140 at my current place, I should still be able to retain my PD right ?

Will my previous employer need to start the GC process again ?

As always, thanks for ur help. Reply at the earliest much appreciated !!

Thanks

Guest said...

Hi CM,
Thanks a lot for your efforts on providing such useful information to everyone. My PD is SEP2007. What are my chances to get current and how long will it take to get actual GC in hand.

Thanks

Guest said...

Forgot to mention EB2-I is the category

Guest said...

Birth Certificate question for I 485 filing

I'm a secondary / dependent applicant who is looking to file I 485 along with spouse.
Now on my original birth certificate , my mother's middle name is printed incorrectly.
All of my information is accurate. Trying to get this corrected in India seems like an impossibility. Would gurus advise on how I should approach this as I prepare my docs to wait for our EB2 Ind PD 07 dec to become current.

Thanks very much in advance

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Any update from your lawyer friend for November visa bulletin?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Sorry I have been traveling and will be out until Monday. I intend to talk to him around Monday next week.

Eventdec said...

Hi My PD is FEBRUARY 2008 EB2, what will be you timeline prediction of it being current by?

Anon said...

Hi CM
Thanks for your excellent analysis. My PD is July 20 2007 EB2-I. I filed my 485 during the July 07 fiasco. I don't know if it's pre adjudicated. Assuming that I become current in the Nov bulletin when can I realistically expect to have a GC in hand?

Anonymous said...

Go to indian consulate and then tell them you need bc and you will get one don't show old bc .. And get 2 affidavits from mom and dad that's all!!

Mackie_1485 said...

Hi cm! Great job. What's your theory for march 2006 now that we're on the new fiscal year?

Pacmanpacman52 said...

Hi CM ive read this in one of your reply regarding eb3 P,with this said do you still stand with your prediction that eb3 P will reach up to nov 2006 this fiscal year 2012. if not what will be your prediction?
my Pd is sept.2006 do you still think i will be current this fiscal year?hoping to hear from you..



"Please ignore my earlier comment. With change in demand data for EB3 - P in October VB to 13550, this will impact movement for EB3 ROW- M-P for FY 2012. We will have to update and recalculate estimation for FY 2012. Thank you for bringing this to our notice. This is definitely not good news for EB3- ROW. But to do this we will wait for latest I-485 inventory. I really doubt EB3-P inventory went from 5000 to 13500 from June till now for PD until December 2006. If this is true at some point EB3-P has to retrogress. It will be brutal if EB3-P will end up using these many visas in a year."

Edskie said...

Hi CM,
Good day! if ok with you, can i have your email address. I have some clarifications on CP processing. Thank you.

k.sh said...

Hi CM
My Pd is 19th of oct 2006 EB3 .Is it possible for me to be current in fy 2012?
thanks

Sri said...

get a lawyer, dont be cheap

Vijay said...

Hi My PD is Sept 25, 2007 EB2-I. When do you think I will be able to file I485? Also is there a chance of getting the GC in FY2012

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Here is an update from our lawyer friend.
At this point his law firm does not have any specific update on the movement for the next visa bulletin movement and strategy of DOS. As per him from whatever he has gathered in past few weeks (nothing officially conveyed to them), he believes that “DOS strategically would like not to retrogress cut-off dates for EB2 India and China as long as possible, but rather move dates such that they can intake new demand without using excessive visa numbers than allowed. In retrospective, this means that next bulletin can bring none to one month movement at most, with bigger movement around December and January 2012 visa bulletin, where unused visas from current quarterly spillover and next quarterly spillover could be used rationally. Once that is done, cut-off dates may stall or retrogress based on total demand. Cut-off date for EB3- category will move as posted on the visa bulletin. EB3- ROW, Mexico and Philippines would move together for quite some time. Expected VB released date is Friday, October 7th”
CM – Information is posted as shared. Please take it at your own discretion. Good Luck.

Guest said...

Hi CM,

What is your take on this information from your friend?

edskie said...

Did i ask your opinion about it? Who U?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

It means your daughter has until July 2012 to age out based on I-140 (assuming you did not took into consideration 8 months). In that case you have almost 50-50 chance of getting current. If DOS may plan on moving dates aggressively and then retrogressing, you would just make it, else chances are less.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

To get current is good and receiving Green Card is 80-20.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Atleast 5 years from today.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

If answer to any of these question is yes, you are fine with no problem.
a) Was this 2.5 month the only time you were out of status? If yes you are covered by 245(k) as you changed your ststus to H4 in timely manner before 180 days.
b) After being out of status and after h4 or h1b approval you left country and came back with visa stamped and was allowed at port of entry, then you should not worry about anything. Last legal entry to US should be valid for I-485 approval.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

if your I-140 at the previous employer was approved before or after leaving him then you can retain your PD. No need to start GC again. If I-140 was never filed at the previous employer , GC and whole process need to be restarted.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Current in 1-3 months and GC in hand around July 2012.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Get an affidavit from your mother saying what is her real name and name on BC was a typo or clerical error. Usually mothers middle name is not that important for GC purposes but it will good to get affidavit.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Anytime from Dec 2011 to June 2012 best case.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

If you will be current in November you may expect GC in 1-3 months depending on visa availability.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I would say 3-4 months form now for that PD.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I still need to do some calculations. I am waiting for new inventory to release to make some informed calculation. Increase in number for EB3-P pending cases until 1 Jan 2007 in demand data looks unreal but we will need to confirm that.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Email me at usnonimmigrants@gmail.com

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

So far yes but things may change for EB3-P once we have more data from new inventory.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Anywhere from next month to June 2012. You should receive GC this fiscal year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

He has been pretty accurate for all this time but this is his belief and like every time we should take it with grain of salt.

I am interpreting this as November visa bulletin will just help to slow down the movement to get enough demand that can be handled by Q1 spillover and some annual quota, and then do big movement in December and January that can be handled by remaining Q1 and annual quota, and new Q2 spillover. This way by January we will receive first (may be final) wave of huge demand that will convert into real demand data only in March-April 2012. By that time DOS will have hold on estimated later half year's spillover to decide on probable movement or retrogression thus moving dates just once in a year. Good thing with this strategy is Cut-off dates will not retrogress and USCIS can get real hold on spillover and could use visas wisely. This will also give USCIS chance to concentrate on other categories for first 4-5 months of the FY 2012. Fallacy to this whole method is that USCIS will have to be efficient through out the year and ensure cases are adjudicated atleast until July 2012 .

Personally, I will prefer DOS moves dates next two VBs and get as much demand as possible and retrogress dates in January and just not worry about it. Then USCIS/DOS can use visas based on demand as it will come like FY 2011.

"A little rule, a little sway, HE can make everyone's day" :)

Guest said...

Hi CM, my PD is July 2007 (EB2-I). I-485 and I-140 were filed concurrently during the July 2007 fiasco. I-140 was approved in 2008. Fingerprinting was done in October 2007. How long do you think would it take for my case to be approved?

edskie said...

Dear CM,
Thank you.

Shantanu said...

CM, any comments on the latest demand data ?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Inciteful Comments said...

CM,

Just some observations about EB3-P.

The Demand Data has always shown that EB3-P has high Demand from 2006 onwards.

In the original Demand Data figures from March 2010, the figure was 11,700 for CY2006 itself, which has now risen to 12,600.

The USCIS Inventory alone is a poor predictor for EB3-P because they already have a high CP usage which seems set to increase even more.

The reason for this IMO is that a high % of EB3-P are represented by Nurses, Physical Therapists etc, who do not qualify for H1B and therefore have no option but to CP.

The NVC waiting list for 2010 http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf shows 44,903 EB3-P applicants waiting for CP. This is almost unchanged from the 2009 figure of 45,331.

It is perhaps slightly surprising that so many cases remain from CY2006, since 50k visas were recaptured for Schedule A and they were Current from July 2005 through October 2006.

Possibly, processing times were so long back then that few cases with 2006 PD were able to benefit. When the Category retrogressed in Nov 2006, it moved to 01OCT05, so maybe that is a clue.

I hope that helps with your further analysis.

OMGC said...

@shantanu,

this is probably the old data.
Check the date .. it says sept 8th...

Vijay said...

Thanks... CM. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Kumar said...

Hello CM, My PD is July 2008 (EB2 - India). what will be your timeline prediction of it being current by? Also is there a chance of getting the GC in FY2012
Thanks,
Kumar

Kuku said...

CM,

Any comments on the demand data used for November?

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Demand data used for Nov VB is out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Based on this data, do you think that a PD of Aug 9th 2007 could become current for EB2I in the Nov VB?

Ad said...

there is a reduction of 5350 for India and China, how is that?

DK said...

CM- I'm current on Eb2I. Filed 485 in July 2007. in 2009 we received a query to prove our marriage relationship. We sent all the necessary documents. my wife's 485 online status on USCIS website says "Request for Evidence Response Review". Mine says "Initial Review".

Is it normal for such a status on my wife's profile? Thanks

guest said...

CM,

Demand Data released:http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

looks like 5600 is allocated in October itself, would like to see your analysis

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Interesting? …may be not!!! In order to justify movement of about 5100 in October VB, DOS was bound to remove those numbers from the demand data. In reality, that does not mean those visa are already allocated to the applications. My perspective about this is nothing but mere number game. In order to move dates for next VBs, they have to reduce these numbers; and more surprisingly these numbers will reappear again to justify retrogression in January demand data (as long as DOS wants to intake new demand in 2 months) .

If they will really end up using 5600 annual quota for approving October cases then this would mean movement for rest of the year will only based on available quarterly spillover. This may not be good because then this mean that next movement will only happen as our friend suggested i.e. two big movement in Dec and Jan & then retrogression until July-August.

We will know in few weeks what DOS strategy is.

a) If these visa numbers were really allocated for Oct approvals then we should expect no movement next VB and we have to wait when qtrly spillover will be available.

b) If numbers where just removed to justify the movement for intake for FY 2012 and those numbers will reappear in next few demand data, then we should expect some big leap-ass movement in Nov VB.

Dthirum said...

How big a moment in November can we expect if the stratergy is B. We all have heard the NVC has asked to pay for the fees upto late-mid ' 08. Is it realistic to expect the dates to move around mid-08.

If it does move to Mid-08 can we expect the approval in FY12 or have to wait till FY13?

guest said...

Bulletin is out EB@ 01NOV07
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Nov2011.pdf

CM,cannot wait for your comments on this.

Gagan Randhawa said...

Great news EB2 india China up to Nov 07, waiting for our PD july 09 to get current. All the best everyone. Any guess when July 09 will get current, we have approved I-140. As i read on other post from 08 till 2010 there were only 125 applications approved or processed.

Kuku said...

Seems the bulletin is no longer available from DOS website.......it can still be accessed using this link: http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Nov2011.pdf

Kuku said...

It is back up now.

guest said...

Congratulations to everyone whose long wait came to an end. My PD is 07 Dec, 07. CM, can we expect to be current in the next VB??

Neo said...

whats a VB? my PD is Dec 14, 2007

GPS said...

November Bulletin is up. EB-2 I moves to 1st Nov'2007

GPS said...

Hi CM,

What does this movement in November implies for the rest of this year. My PD is March 2009....wondering how fast the dates will move for the rest of the year or we should expect retrogression soon?

GCinlimbo said...

No one knows when it is going to be current, if you just want some estimation, use the green card calculator.

tweeter said...

If I were you, I'll file I-485 immediately because I don't want to be one of the PWMBs if PDs will retrogress.

Guest said...

For I 485 filing , as a dependant , do I need to supply all my historical H1's and H4s or just the latest most current H1 approval will suffice for applying. Lost the last approval of h4 in the mail and dont want to apply for duplicate unless it is a must.

guest said...

CM

When would you be posting detailed analysis of Nov Visa Bulletin.

Guest said...

CM,
Are u traveling? We are all waiting for your analysis on Nov Visa Bulletin. Great Work So Far!

Pdl1976 said...

How long does it take for 485 approval and GC there after? I am in EB2 PD oct 2007.....thanks for your hardwork?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I would think it is just matter of time, hopefully this or next month.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thanks you for in depth comment and analysis on this as usual.

So far for 2005 for EB3-P, assumption of 30% CP demand month to month has really worked out well to convert data from inventory to total demand. For all this time I was not paying close attention to Demand data for EB3-P for CY 2006 and hence I totally neglected 12000 figure from demand data. It is very apparent now that CP demand for CY 2006 is no where close to 30% or LO has still not completed transferring all cases to Service Centers.

This will definitely affect overall EB3 ROW movement. At this rate July 2006 is also a challenge. I am just hoping to see next inventory so that those number can be rationally used to estimate CP demand.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I am glad you are current now. Good zluck.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Slim chances of getting current this FY but cannot be discarded for now. At least 20-30% chances. You might not receive GC this year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Hold on, you might get current anytime in next few months.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Very normal. In most of the cases this will only change to approvals or other information needed. Your wife case is in good shape. Do not worry.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yes whoever next movement will happen, you should be current.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

2014. Could be earlier with some pending bills getting approved in senate.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

2013 for EAD.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I am hoping your PD to be current for next movement whenever it will happen. It is difficult to say if you will receive GC this year. Chances are slim.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Congrats my friend. I am happy for you.

You will receive GC around April- July 2012.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I really doubt it after seeing high demand for EB3-P for CY 2006.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I would still seem stick to that estimate but this may change if demand is not seen as we are estimating. Too early to say.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Next time when movement may happen you might get current.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I am doubtful for November 2006 with high EB3 P demand.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You might not receive green card until April-july 2012. As long as you are married before approval, your wife will receive GC based on EB category and PD else she has to go through FB category. So if you are planning to get married by then you are golden else I will delay I-485 processing. Retrogression if will happen will not affect you. At most it will retrogress to June 2007 and then will move beyond your PD in less than 6 months. I expect you to be current always after that.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

FY 2013, later in the fiscal year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Anytime in Nov- Dec you may get GC. Little later if you filed at TSC. This is best case. It is not advisable to travel outside US unless she has AP or she is on H1B.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Please see our post on Nov VB. Retrogression is imminent anytime in 2-3 months.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

All I-797 approvals are required generally to show that status was maintained.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I am not traveling but recently pretty busy at work.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

6 months if visa numbers are available in case you will file at TSC and 4 months for NSC.

kexy said...

I hope this negative information (EB3 ROW FY 2012 July 2006!) still might not be the ultimate .... we can hope to change for the better?

Thank you very much

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I hope so too...

RV said...

Hi,
my i 140 approved on one company ,PD may 2009,EB2 I
If i would like to change my company & my new employer transfers H1 and willing to do PERM processing,will my old PD 2009 persists or will there be a new PD. How will this affect my getting GC at the earliest.
Thanks in advance for all your support.

Guest said...

What is EB3 to EB2 porting ? Can anyone explain the pros and cons as well please.

Thank you.

bluefox said...

pd aug8 2006 phil..when it will become current??

sv1234 said...

Hey: Got a question on Prevailing Wage. At what stage does an employee needs to get as much as the prevailing wage - is it applying Labor/140/485?

sv1234 said...

Also my PD is 2008 Mar......Will the retrogression if it happens goes back to June/July 2007?

Mar said...

Hi CM,
MY PD is July 31 2007 and I already filed 485 in 2007, when can i expect my GC? I am going to file 485 for my wife in Nov, when can she expect her GC or EAD?

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