Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label EB3. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EB3. Show all posts

Monday, August 22, 2011

EB3 ROW, Mexico & Philippines - FY 2012 Movement Estimation

Posted On Monday, August 22, 2011 by Rav 59 comments

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until 15th November 2006, will be 34,674. Based on annual allocation for EB3-ROW-M-P, visa number available will be 29,128 +2803 + 2803 = 34,734. Please see table below for detailed calculation. EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to reach 15-November-2006 for FY 2012 based on currently available data. This projection will be updated as cut-off dates will progress in FY 2012.

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW will only use 24,733 visas; EB3-M will use 3,024 visas and EB3-P will end up using 6,917 visa numbers. I-485 demand (or AOS or visible demand) from the inventory that is expected to clear in FY 2012 is 21507, 2326 and 5321 respectively for ROW, Mexico and Philippines in EB3 category.


Last Updated - 22 August 2011
* - Please note that for FY 2011, there was change in demand from inventory to inventory, every quarter. From October 2010 to September 2011, at least 7194 demand for previous already current PDs were added all together. These numbers accounted for at least 50% of increase in demand from inventory to inventory. If this is again observed for FY 2012, cut-off date is expected to reach only until PD July 2006 for EB3-ROW-M-P. We are hoping since most of the cases from LO are now returned to National Service Centers this is less unlikely, but we will need to keep a close eye at difference in demand that  may  evolve from inventory to inventory,


Thursday, May 26, 2011

EB3 Category - People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)

Posted On Thursday, May 26, 2011 by Rav 19 comments

In lieu of updating our green calculator we have completed our analysis on "People Who Missed the Boat" (PWMB) during July 2007 fiasco for EB3 category. It may be too early to see effect of these in current visa bulletin but as dates will move into 2007 these numbers can be significant. On average if your PD is after July 2007 assume 6 more months wait for EB3-ROW, Mexico and China , 3 months for EB3-Philippines and atleast a year for EB3-India. PWMB for EB3-ROW and Philippines is calculated from 01 March 2006, latest PD that was currentafter July 2007, whereas for other countires it is calculated from first available petition.


PWMB for EB3-India and China were published previously but are added here again for reference. PWMB for EB3 category for most countries means they will consume significant visa when PD will reach year 2007.


People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)
Per family size 2.25 while considering dependents




Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Demand Data and EB3-EB2 Porting Calculations

Posted On Wednesday, February 09, 2011 by Rav 3 comments

Demand Data that is used to determine cut-off dates for Employment Based Category has been released. You can find Demand Data here. Based on released demand data, visa demand for EB2-India to reach 01 January 2007 has increased from 13,150 to 13,175 from February 2011 to March 2011. This portends that EB2-India will not see any movement in March 2011 Visa Bulletin.

Demand Data for EB2-India for last 4 months

Cumulative Demand

Dec 2010

Jan 2011

Feb 2011

March 2011

01 January 2007

13,150

13,125

13,150

13,175



How to use this data to predict EB3-EB2 porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is

EB3-EB2 Porting = (Demand for current month) - (Demand for past month) + 233


Dec 2010

Jan 2011

Feb 2011

March 2011

EB3-EB2 Porting

258

208

258

258


This suggests that on an average 260 cases are ported every month. This brings total to 3120 cases for a year as long as this trends continue.

Fallacy to above calculations
One fallacy to above method is 'Hidden Demand'. We are not sure about number of ported cases that are received and approved same month due to interfiling. This is what I call 'Hidden Demand', as it could not be accounted for in each month's released demand data. On an average it is taking 20 days to get a green card for a case which is ported and is already pre-adjudicated to use visa numbers. So these cases may not show up in demand data.

How to evaluate current trends in EB3 to EB2 porting?
There is no simple way to predict current trend in EB3 to EB2 porting. One way that I plan to estimate current trend in EB3 to EB2 porting is use of Google Analytics. With Google Analytics, I can drill down to each content on this website and see number of "unique visits" that I have received on each topic every day. This data is well plotted on Google Analytics and could be shared on this blog. This could at least help in breaking down number of individuals who are thinking or actually porting from EB3 to EB2. Results could be complete morass, but I think this can throw a little light on current trend in porting.

Currently this website has three posts on EB3 to EB2 porting.
I plan to analyze each of these posts to predict EB3 to EB2 porting numbers. I believe individuals visiting these topics are either thinking of porting their cases or are in middle of filing new PERM under EB2 category. This data could be leading indicator for the demand that may hit in coming months. The data set that I have analyzed so far suggests on average '20' unique visitors are interested in reading one of the above topics. If we assume that 80% of these individuals are either thinking of porting their cases or actually eligible to porting, number comes around '480' individuals for a month and around '5760' cases for a year. But again this is a small data set with lot of uncertainty. I plan to collect data until second week of March and further analyze it to share results here on website.


Saturday, January 29, 2011

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same (current) employer: Not a good idea

Posted On Saturday, January 29, 2011 by Rav 6 comments

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. If you are porting your case after attaining new job offer from a new employer that would qualify you into EB2 category, well then this should be very straight forward. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

Why EB3 to EB2 Porting with same (current) employer is not a good idea?

To port case from EB3 to EB2 category with same (current) employer it is a common notion among immigration community that your new job description should be different and you should be able to prove that you have attained all your experience before joining current employer. New Job Description should be at least 50% different from previous EB3 job description in order to port case with the same (current) employer. It is also believed that any progressive experience attained with the same (current) employer could be counted towards new EB2 petition. Though this sounds perfect, but an individual opting for this route should consider following points that USCIS would consider before approving your case:

a) Whether new future job opening is legitimate and well documented internally in the company. Employer could be asked to provide evidence or proof supporting this. (example: an email trail from manager requesting addition of head count)

b) If an employee from a company is considered for this new EB2 level job, what would happen to future EB3 level job? Has employer posted an old EB3 level job again in the market? If earlier EB3 level job is not open, did employer falsify his need previously? Is it required for an employer to fill that position?

c) Was your promotion internal and you were considered for this new future job due to experience gained at EB3 qualified job? For example “Software Engineer” to “Project Manager”

d) Whether new job description is biased to gratify individual’s experience and qualifications. This would cause more audits at new PERM or I-140 level.

e) If an American citizen who would qualify for your job at EB3 level today, could he be qualified for your EB2 level job after attaining similar progressive experience. Does this call for testing market for your EB3 job level again in current time when unemployment is so high.

f) How many employees from same employer have recently been upgraded from EB3 to EB2? Does this call for auditing employer for all the recent approved cases.

So in all EB3 to EB2 Porting with same (current) employer could open whole new can of worms, and I would refrain myself from opting this route. If an employer is considering this as an option for number of his employees, he should be cautious as this could call for many audits in future and he could eventually be under scrutiny by USCIS and DOL. It is just a matter of time.


Saturday, October 3, 2009

Bill Introduced in House to Eliminate Diversity Immigration Visa and Allocate the Numbers to EB based category for individuals with Advanced Degree

Posted On Saturday, October 03, 2009 by Rav 0 comments

A bill has been introduced in House to eliminate Diversity Immigration Visa , referred as DV lottery, and allocate the numbers to EB based category for individuals with Advanced Degree. This bill is much wanted step to overhaul employment based immigration. Professional who have obtained advanced degree in US Universities, and are stuck in limbo due to numbers unavailable will benefit from this bill. To qualify for these numbers individuals should be employed in a profession related to science and mathematics that requires advanced degree, and should be working in US since they graduated.

Details of the Bill

To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to eliminate the diversity immigrant program and to re-allocate those visas to certain employment-based immigrants who obtain an advanced... (Introduced in House)

HR 3687 IH

111th CONGRESS

1st Session

H. R. 3687

To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to eliminate the diversity immigrant program and to re-allocate those visas to certain employment-based immigrants who obtain an advanced degree in the United States.

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

October 1, 2009

Mr. ISSA introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on the Judiciary

A BILL

To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to eliminate the diversity immigrant program and to re-allocate those visas to certain employment-based immigrants who obtain an advanced degree in the United States.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SECTION 1. ELIMINATION OF DIVERSITY IMMIGRANT PROGRAM.

(a) Worldwide Level of Diversity Immigrants- Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151) is amended--

(1) in subsection (a)--

(A) by inserting `and' at the end of paragraph (1);

(B) by striking `; and' at the end of paragraph (2) and inserting a period; and

(C) by striking paragraph (3); and

(2) by striking subsection (e).

(b) Allocation of Diversity Immigrant Visas- Section 203 of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1153) is amended--

(1) by striking subsection (c);

(2) in subsection (d), by striking `(a), (b), or (c),' and inserting `(a) or (b),';

(3) in subsection (e), by striking paragraph (2) and redesignating paragraph (3) as paragraph (2);

(4) in subsection (f), by striking `(a), (b), or (c)' and inserting `(a) or (b)'; and

(5) in subsection (g), by striking `(a), (b), and (c)' and inserting `(a) and (b)'.

(c) Procedure for Granting Immigrant Status- Section 204 of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1154) is amended--

(1) by striking subsection (a)(1)(I); and

(2) in subsection (e), by striking `(a), (b), or (c)' and inserting `(a) or (b)'.

SEC. 2. VISAS FOR CERTAIN EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS WHO OBTAIN AN ADVANCED DEGREE IN THE UNITED STATES.

(a) In General- Section 203(b)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(b)(2)) is amended by adding at the end the following:

`(D) CERTAIN ALIENS OBTAINING ADVANCED DEGREES IN THE UNITED STATES- Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 55,000, to qualified immigrants who--

`(i) are a member of a profession holding an advanced degree obtained within the United States;

`(ii)(I) obtained such degree within the United States during the 5-year period preceding the date on which the petition filed under section 204(a)(1)(F) for classification under this subparagraph is filed; or

`(II) has resided continuously in the United States in a lawful nonimmigrant status since obtaining such degree; and

`(iii) whose services in the sciences or medicine--

`(I) are sought by an employer in the United States; and

`(II) will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy of the United States.'.

(b) Numerical Limitation-

(1) IN GENERAL- Section 201(d) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151(d)) is amended by adding at the end the following:

`(3) Aliens described in section 203(b)(2)(D) may be issued visas or may otherwise acquire the status of an alien lawfully admitted to the United States for permanent residence in a number not to exceed 55,000 in any fiscal year.'.

(2) CONFORMING AMENDMENT- Section 201(a)(2) of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1151(a)(2)) is amended by striking `and not to exceed' and inserting `and, excluding immigrants described in section 203(b)(2)(D), not to exceed'.

SEC. 3. EFFECTIVE DATE.

The amendments made by this Act shall take effect on October 1, 2009.


Sunday, April 5, 2009

Welcome to US Non-Immigrants Blog

Posted On Sunday, April 05, 2009 by Rav


This is a new blog that will cover latest on the following Non-immigrant visas.

  • B-1/B-2 - Temporary visitor for business or pleasure
  • C - Transit through the United States
  • D - Crew (airline/ship)
  • E-1/E-2 - Treaty Trader/Investor Visa
  • E-3 - Specialty Work Visa
  • F - Student (academic or language program)
  • H - Individuals in specialty occupations (e.g. nurses)
  • I - Journalists
  • J - Exchange visitors
  • K - FiancĂ©(e) of U.S. citizen - while technically a non-immigrant visa, the processing of this category actually falls under immigrant visas
  • L - Intra-company transfer
  • M - Student in vocational or recognized non-academic program
  • O - Individuals with extraordinary abilities in sciences, arts, education, business, athletics
  • P - Internationally recognized athlete or member of internationally recognized entertainment group
  • Q - Participants in an international cultural program
  • R - Religious workers
  • Official and Diplomatic visas
  • I-485/I-140/AOS/EAD – Though this is an immigrant application, but is of an interest to all non-immigrants


I will post latest news related to above visas here and would share my perspective on the news.