Adjusted EB2-India & China FY 2012 Retrogression Estimation based on I-485 Receipt Data

Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. This time we were fooled by USCIS January 2012 Inventory which in reality is nothing but a muck of mislaid data. Either USCIS inventory was incomplete in terms of November 2011 and December 2011 to an error of greater than 50% or currently released document has some error. Most likely at this point January Inventory looks incomplete not only with respect to December 2011 visa bulletin movement data but to great extent to November 2011 data. In any case, at this time we feel dejected to outline that we are back to square-one where we started for FY 2012. If any of this is accurate to 80-90%, we are talking about severe retrogression.

Visa Usage or Approvals from the released data 
Currently released data suggests that atleast 31,541 visas were used in Q1-FY 2012. This looks reasonable based on estimated visa use that was published few months ago. 

Estimated EB2-IC visa use upto Q1-FY 2012 is 8000+4805 (PWMB). Also for EB3 category at least 15% or more visa is used by Consular Processed (CP) cases, so monthly visa use is 0.85*3367 = 2861 per month at USCIS. For 3 months it becomes, 2831*3 = 8,493. EB4 could have used 2495 or more in Q1 and EB5 has used 2864 based on released data. Estimated from January Inventory, EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P use was  around 3,580 and 2321 respectively.
 
Visa use in Q1-FY2012 =  3580 + 8000+ 4805 + 2321+  8493 + 2495 + 2864 = 32,558 (approx 31,541)


EB2-IC Receipts from the released data 
Most disturbing and contradicting to January Inventory data is the total EB category receipts issued in Q1-FY 2012. YTY we had seen that total I-485 EB Receipts at TSC and NSC were 27% - 33% of total I-485 receipts at these service centers. Well current data suggests that when EB2-IC cut-off dates were moved so much in last 6 bulletins, this is no longer true. EB category receipts due to such huge movement now estimates as large as 50%-60% of total I-485 receipts at these centers.

Based on EB receipts for each month as per currently released data, and current trackitt trend for filings in each month for Q1-FY 2012, EB2-India & China demand estimate has almost doubled than what was estimated earlier just because of I-485 EB receipts now representing 50%-60% of total receipts and not 27%-33% anymore. Tabulated results is based on taking EB2-IC trackitt data as it is and assuming EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P  representation is 1/4th of that of EB2-IC on trackitt. See this article for reference on how this is calculated.

 EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P estimation above jives well with new applications estimated from January Inventory. Estimation from January 2012 Inventory falls atleast 20% low again because of incompleteness.

One fallacy to above method is that we have not considered any EB3 to EB2 Porting and any new receipts for EB4 and EB5. Based on inventory EB3 to EB2 Porting is not more than 1800, and EB4 & EB5 demand is around 622+223 = 845. Assuming incompleteness of inventory, if we increase this number by 50% more, it comes out to be 845*1.5 = 1267. Though good chunk of EB4 and EB5 cases are CP cases we can ignore it at this point and assume all 1267 were filed at USCIS. Out of new EB2-IC cases, there will be few PWMBs too, which account for these receipts. Such number should be part of October receipts. Considering all these errors, EB2-IC demand for Q1-FY2012 comes out to be 23,787 - 1800 - 1267 = 20720. This is atleast 8000-9000 higher than 11,563 what we estimated from January Inventory. This tells us that January Inventory is totally bogus with respect to EB2-IC demand and should be ignored. Again if these are not EB2-IC numbers then any reduction in here should be accounted by increase in EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 or EB5 demand, which by all means suggest less contributed spillover to EB2-IC. Based on this March 2008 PD total demand for this year becomes

EB2-IC demand March 2008 =  8000+ 20,720 + 1,800 = 30,520

Now based on current EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, we are estimating that spillover for this year can be as high as 35,500 and as low as 28,800. So it still means June-July 2008 PD can receive green card this FY 2012. My personal opinion is that due to long processing time at USCIS, DOS may not have to retrogress dates all the way to June-July 2008 and then move them again in FY 2013.So this means we can still see October 2008 PD to be current for the remaning fiscal year. USCIS may approve cases more likely on basis of PD than receipt date. EB1 demand will be a gate keeper for this year based on USCIS efforts to reduce this huge inventory. EB2-ROW-M-P demand may yield more spillover compared to last year.

Summary

• USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.

• PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.

• PERM to Inventory conversion factor in our

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012 - Employment Based Green Card

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. See this article for detail.


Summary of article

• USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.

• PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.

• PERM to Inventory conversion factor in our

EB2-IC PERM to Inventory factor is a User ENTERED' field and can be changed accordingly. 


You can also play with EB1, EB2-ROW-M-P, EB4 and EB5 demand to get your own estimate. Please read this article to estimate their respective demand.

Estimation on Retrogression - Last Updated - 26 February 2012

We do not expect to achieve any spillover from Family-Based category.

Detailed analysis on Visa Demand data for each category could be seen below in the calculations.

You can enter porting and visa demand for each category in 'User ENTERED' box for your Priority date, and see if your PD would be current with those assumptions.

This Prediction will be updated as and when more data is published - Last Updated 26 February 2012

Notes

Understanding Spillover

Spill Across (SA): It is a horizontal reallocation of visas within a category. (Unused number from EB2 ROW will be allotted to EB2 -India and China)

 

Fall Down (FD) : It is the vertical reallocation of visas between categories (eg: unused numbers from eb1 go to eb2....) Unused visa numbers in a higher preference level can "fall-down" to lower preference categories. For example, excess EB1 numbers can "fall-down" to EB2.

Fall Up (FU): Unused visa numbers in EB4 and EB5 can "fall-up" to EB1 then to EB2

EB2 - India-China Allocation (IC) - Visa numbers allotment to India and China EB2-category. This is 2,800 for each country or total 5,600.

How spillover works?

Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed

Visa Allocation available each year

EB1 - 40,000

EB2 -ROW-P-M - 34,400

EB2-IC - 5,600

EB4 - 9,940

EB5 - 9,940

Calculations

EB Category FY 2012 Demand Upto January 2012 & Visa-Use Budget

 As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of Novemberr 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.

 

Visa Use Budget and Current EB category demand

From  the available data, please see total EB category demand for visas upto January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used the available data also to estimate Visa-use Budget upto January 2012.

 Reference

Rollover Demand - See this article 

October Demand - See this article

Please note that December and January Demand is calculated from trackitt using factor of 13. This is still an estimation. January 2012 demand is prorated from current data based on 31 days.

Visa use is calculated based on numbers that are used upto today. Please add all the numbers that are circled in red to estimate current visa use.

 Visa use upto January 2012 =  6461 + 8000 + 4805 + 8012 + 1131 + 13468 = 41,877

Please note EB1 use looks high for this quarter only because of high rollover from previous year. If current trend continues then we can expect some more spillover from EB1. This may be the reason that Mr O. is quoting less demand for EB1. We would need to see if trackitt trend will shift due to more new EB1 filings as  year progresses.. EB2-ROW demand does not make sense based on trackitt data. We will like to see more PERM data for Q1 FY 2012 to make this conclusion. Please note that we need more 60K demand from today to use EB annual quota completely. This is based on assumption that EB4 and EB5 may not yield much spillover. Low EB2-ROW consumption could be accounted  to the delays in PERM processing. This may pick up with time.

If any of the trends for EB1 and EB2-ROW is true and will continue like this for few more months, retrogression is not possible until summer. Even if retrogression will happen in such case, I doubt it will go anywhere in late 2008 or may even stall at PD 2009. This looks too good to be true but for now this scenario cannot be discarded. Surprising data that unfolded due to trackitt trend is an eye-opener. Lets watch inventory and I-485 filing receipts for few more months. So far things looks good for EB2-IC (that means less retrogression).

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document (thank you to our reader who pointed to this release) - http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf.

Some of the important relevant information can be found on Page 6 of the document which has plots for I-140 EB1 and EB-2 adjudications, including receipts and approvals for the Texas (TSC) and Nebraska (NSC) Service Centers. Report suggests that USCIS has experienced a slight downturn in EB-1 and EB-2 filings over the past five years for both EB-1 and EB-2 (note report does not include National Interest Waiver petitions), with approval and denial rates remaining consistent.

Key point to note here are - 

• EB1-A and EB1-B has high rate of denial rate, around 40% to 60% respectively. 
• EB2 I-140 approval rate is close to 100%
• Respective I-140 filings for each fiscal year 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
• EB1 majority demand comes from EB1-C and not from EB1-A and EB1-B. Those filings do not look enormous.

Based on I-140 receipt data  and 100% approval rate for EB2 petition, we tried to deduce some I-140 demand for PD 2008, 2009 and 2010.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand based on released data

First of all we started after taking into account the PERMs that were approved for the FY 2008, FY 2009 and FY 2010.

Table I

We know from past analysis that usual break down of PERMs are 65%-35% for EB2-EB3 for India and China, and 50% for EB2-ROW-M-P.  Based on this assumption and 100% approval rate, total I-140 demand for PERMs filed each fiscal year as follow.

Table II

 If we now compare this data with recently released DHS document -http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf. ; then I-140 Receipt numbers come very close to that suggested in above table. Approvals per released DHS document is as follow:

Table III

Reason for difference in two numbers can be accounted based on

• First of all data is based on PERM approvals and some of demand from past fiscal year will roll-over into current fiscal year I-140 demand due to time lag between approval of PERM and filing of I-140s
• Our assumption of 65% and 50% is flat and there may be a difference month to month.
• Please note NIW applicants do not have to file PERM and hence that difference in negated here. 

In addition to above numbers we should remember that lot of PERM cases that were filed with PD 2008 and PD 2009 were audited  and were later approved in FY 2011. Few cases were approved in FY 2010 but we will neglect it for time being. If we will look at the EB2-IC and EB2-ROW-M-P breakup for FY 2011, we can see demand from PD 2008 and PD 2009 that will come from approvals in FY 2011.

This data comes from these articles
a) FY 2011 Q1-Q2 PERM data
b) FY 2011 Q3 PERM Approvals
c) FY 2011 Q4 PERM Approvals

Table IV

 Please note that from above table it is difficult to deduce EB2 I-140 Receipts of 39000 reported in DHS document. Our estimation only shows 21,034 receipts. This is still a mystery to us.

EB2-India & China demand based on Priority Date
To calculate this for now we can neglect the difference that we see in DHS I-140 Receipts data (Table II)  and I-140 demand data from PERM approvals (Table III), then we can roughly estimate total EB2-IC I-140 demand for each fiscal year just by using Table II. In order to capture FY 2011 approvals for old priority dates, we will add EB2-IC demand for each fiscal year to respective approvals in FY 2011. Based on above calculations, estimate for EB2-IC I-140 demand is  (in red)

Table V

Some key points to note

•  I-140 Receipt demand will always lag PERM Approval times.
• Difference between 29000 - 27588 = 1412 from Table II and Table III can account for some demand before October 2007.
• It is assumed that most of the cases for certain priority date is approved in same fiscal year, so total demand upto end of FY 2010 will be same but real numbers for each  PD may be off depending upon PERM approval time within that fiscal year.
• These calculations do not consider any abandon cases due to individuals leaving country, getting lay-offed or re-filing due to long audit processing time, multiple PERM factors or double filings within a family. You can assume anything from 65%-85% for this as a multiple PERM factor.
• This data does not consider any EB3-EB2 portings.
• You can multiply this demand by 2.0 to 2.25 based on dependent factor to get estimate of I-485 demand.

 EB2-India & China I-485 demand based on Priority Date

 To above numbers you can add 8000 visa numbers that was approved for this fiscal year. Also add demand from August 2007-September 2007 plus 4000-5000 PWMBs overall and then based on your estimation of spillover calculate cut-off date on retrogression.


My take will be the option Multiple PERM factor of 75%.
EB2-IC demand , August-September 2007 from PERM data = 4,000
All PWMBs =                                                                             4,500
EB2-IC Approvals for backlogged cases =                                8,000
Demand until Sep 2008 =                                                         25,233
__________________________________________________________

Total I-485 Demand upto September 2008 =                           41,733 

Spillover + annual limit expected at most can be around   28,000

Cut-off Dates for this year can hover around March-June 2008 after retrogression for the best scenario.

January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

January 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

• EB3- China could advance to 22 September 2004
• EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 February 2006.
• EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
• EB3-India could advance to 08 August 2002.
• EB2-India and EB2-China could see No movement - 3.5 months movement.  It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Based on calculations, EB2-IC should stop over here; present demand would provide enough cases that can be allocated visas through EB2-IC annual limits and estimated spillover as per current trend. January 2012 movement will be solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake enough buffer demand for FY 2012. At this time, our gut feeling is that movement can be as big as 1-3.5 months in January 2012 visa bulletin before we may see retrogression. In successive bulletins (Feb-Mar 2012) dates may stall or even retrogress (exception is H.R. 3012). We will be more confident on Jan VB after release of this month’s demand data.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand Estimation from I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and  I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may  start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover. Please note PWMB demand is only upto cut-off date of 15 April 2007 that last became current until September 2011. 

 

We used I-485 Performance data from USCIS website to estimate representation of Employment-Based cases from the total I-485 cases filed at USCIS service centers. Please note that all the listed cases are filed at Texas Service Center or Nebraska Service Center as per instruction on I-485 form. Family-Based I-485 Cases are filed at Chicago Lock Box and then respectively forwarded to local field offices for processing.

Based on above data, we can safely assume that from time to time Employment-Based Category representation is around 27% of total I-485 cases received at USCIS Service Centers (TSC and NSC). Now if we assume that this percent representation also held true during June to September 2011, we can use I-485 Receipt data to estimate roll-over demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW to FY 2011, and  calculate PWMB cases upto 15 April 2007 that will become documentarily qualified now until January 2012 which will take visa allocations from FY 2012.

Using assumption of 27%, we estimated that out of 73900 I-485 cases received by USCIS, atleast 19,953 cases were filed in Employment-Based category. We then used data from trackitt.com to get distribution of I-485 cases filed since June 2011 to September 2011 at USCIS. Some assumptions were made for EB2-IC representation on trackitt compared to other categories. Distribution for each assumption is tabulated below. 

Above analysis suggest that backlogged carry-over EB1 and EB2-ROW demand from FY 2011 to FY 2012 is huge and will definitely affect spillover in case similar trend is continued. 2X-3X representation of EB2-IC on trackitt looks more realistic and estimated carry-over PWMBs that may start using visa numbers from November -February at NSC and TSC can be anywhere from 3,500-4,800. In case numbers are less than suggested above, then retrospectively it would mean more demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW. One way or other this will affect total spillover that EB2-IC would receive for FY 2012. Apart from this, there are lot more PWMBs that may became eligible since October 1, 2011.

We can arrive at similar demand for PWMB upto 15 April 2007 after using I-485 inventory released data until October 2011. Estimation comes around 4,136 + 8,965 - 8,000 = 5,101. In reality actual numbers can be less but we should still keep track of PWMB cases from FY 2011 that still are not approved at USCIS. Approvals on trackitt look far less than hoped for. Although we still believe some movement may happen for EB2-IC in next bulletin but outlook for EB2-IC based on spillover looks less optimistic. Only reason we believe some more movement may happen is because this is first year when USCIS wlll really have to approve total 140K - CP cases in an year (apart from HR 3012 scenario). So far USCIS always relied on pre-adjudicated cases to reach their annual target. More cases pending at USCIS means more clean cases ready by end of the year for approvals. In case such approvals are not possible then CP cases are only hope for DOS.

Apart from above estimation, please note that cases filed at NSC from May 2011 are comparatively more than those filed at TSC. It may be that with time, TSC and NSC processing times would start aligning and I-485 approvals could eventually take anywhere from 5-6 months at both centers.

Visa Bulletin - December 2011

December 2011 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released today. December visa bulletin brought 4.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories., thus moving it to the most favorable cur-off dates  ever.  EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected. All other categories are current as expected. Family Based category  saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four and a half (4.5) months to March 15, 2008.
• EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to January 15, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to September 8, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to August 1, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by one and a half (1.5) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to January 1, 2006.  It also moves forward by five  (5) weeks for India to July 22, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 moves forward (again, for third consecutive month).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to September 1, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 8, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by three (3) weeks to March 1, 1997.
• FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to March 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by two (2) months to February 8, 2009.
• FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to August 15, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

 

FB Categories
No Notes

EB Categories

No Notes

Demand Data Comparison for December & November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement

EB3-ROW-M-P Future Movement 

EB3-ROW-M-P moved to cut-off date of 15 January 2006 as expected based on current demand and available visas used on monthly basis. I do not want to sound like a broken record, but there is always some hidden demand and other regularly old PD cases  that continuously become documentarily qualified, thus receiving visas from the monthly allocation. Some of these cases are old  and are captured in I-485 pending inventory. On average 1500-1600 demand is generally reduced on a monthly basis from the available inventory. With the released I-485 pending inventory and recently released demand data, it is becoming more and more obvious that cut-off dates for FY 2012 for this category may not cross 01 August 2006. We will keep an eye on the demand data but anything more than this is less plausible so far.

 

EB3-India & China Future Movement 

EB3-India will continue to move 1 week in each visa bulletin. There could be some substantial movement later in the year but so far this will be the trend. EB3-China is difficult to predict due to high consular processing demand but we expect it to move and cross into PD 2005 for this fiscal year.

EB2-India & China Movement 

Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins. 

We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012  if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.

Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers. 

That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may  be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008.  Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.

Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing  to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.

 

Visa Bulletin Predictions from Mr. Charles Oppenheim & More...

US Non-Immigrants Blog - Immigration News Update 

27 October 2011

These are many things that are currently happening at the EB category level. We would like to capture our take and analysis in this article.

____________________________________________________

Visa Bulletin Predictions from Mr. Charles Oppenheim

Source - http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

Capital Immigration Law Group and others law firms recently met with Charles Oppenheim in Washington, DC.  Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State.  For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards.  He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.

Capital Immigration Law Group’s summary from meeting with Mr. Oppenheim’s 

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months.   Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India.  These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months.  Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins.  It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further.   Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins.     Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012.   He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to move gradually slightly forward for the next few visa bulletins — anticipated forward movement of 3 to 4 weeks per month.

EB-3 China.  This category is expected to move slowly forward – by 1-3 weeks per month for the next few months.

EB-3 India.  Unfortunately, this category is, according to Mr. Oppenheim, “ridiculously oversubscribed” and forward movement, if any, will be very slow.    This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a 1-2 weeks or so).   This is mainly caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available.   Mr. Oppenheim suggested that since the summer of 2007, no new EB-3 India cases have been filed and there is a significant number of EB-3 India candidates waiting for the priority dates to move forward.

Our take

EB-2 China and EB-2 India.- After such estimation from Mr. Charlie Oppenheim, it is clear that we will see cut-off date of 01 March 2008 or better pretty soon.

Previously this was analyzed in detail herein, and is now currently summarized below for reference.

"Demand Data for EB2-IC reduced by 5400 compared to last month to account for movement upto July 15th  2007 in October Visa Bulletin. This reduction in demand allowed DOS to move dates to 01 Nov  2007 for  the current bulletin. We expect that total movement for this month could bring in 13,976 (inclusive 2,675 from demand data) demand. So far for last two months, USCIS would eventually see demand around 5400+13976 = 19,376 once these applications would convert into documentary qualified applications. Out of these, 8,000 is known demand upto July 2007. As we all know, DOS will not be able to sustain this ready-to-use demand for long time unless it will retrogress dates next visa bulletin or eventually start using quarterly spillover. 

I have a very strong feeling that DOS really want to use quarterly spillover, and hence we are not seeing many EB2-IC approvals from TSC yet. So far, NSC is in par with the EB1 and EB2-ROW demand but TSC still have some catching up to do in this regard. Once EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is satisfied, apparently it will be easy for USCIS/DOS to rationalize use of left over quarterly visas as spillover. Mr. Oppenheim clearly mentioned in the visa bulletin that some more significant movement in expected during this fiscal year before he will decide to pull the plug. Total visa demand for EB2-IC  that he may have in mind can be any where from 25000-30000 including annual visa quota. We already know 19,376 is already taken care of and atleast 5600 - 10,600 more intake is expected for this year at some point. In  terms of cut-off dates this means, we can see January 2008 - April 2008 current anytime.

It is difficult to guess when such movement will happen but atleast 3-6 months total  movement in one or two steps is expected. Such movement for December or January visa bulletin cannot be discarded at this time although current bulletin clearly mentioned such movement should not be expected as a norm on monthly basis. Eventually when dates will retrogress, it is expected to reach June 2007 PD in worst case. We still believe for current fiscal year November 2007 will receive green card and December 2007-January 2008 will be on the edge. Individuals with PD from Jan- June 2008 can expect EAD, with June 2008 having slim chance and March 2008 best"

 EB-3 (ROW-M-P) - Based on Mr. Oppenheim's estimation and data from currently released October 2011  I-485 pending inventory report, we expect dates for EB3-ROW-M-P to atleast reach PD July 2006-September 2006 in FY 2012. EB3-P demand is high for calendar year 2006 which may restrict cut-off date movement . Realistically, August 2006 is still plausible.

EB3-India is expected to reach 08 November 2002 by end of FY 2012.

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October 2011 I-485 Pending Inventory Released

Source - USCIS

USCIS yesterday released I-485 pending inventory upto 01 October 2011. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a quick summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to previous inventories,

EB1 demand : In general, EB1 is highly backlogged with atleast 14072 applications still pending at Service Centers. This is high when compared year-to-year to similar inventories previously released in October 2010 and August 2009. Generally with start of an each fiscal year, such pending numbers were within 5000-8000. This backlog is highly affected by Kazarian Memo and with time can affect spillover to EB2 category if such demand or backlog would continuously grow for rest of the year.

EB2-ROW-M-P demand - When compared to previous some inventories year to year (or quarter to quarter) current inventory for this category stands at least 20% higher. If such demand is maintained for rest of the year, spillover received will be minimum from this category. It is estimated that EB2-IC received atleast 6000 unused visa numbers from this category in FY 2011. At current rate, such numbers can be as low as 1000-2000,

EB2-IC demand - From October 2010 to October 2011, reduction in inventory for this category is 27386.  We should note that last year EB2-I used it's annual limit of 2803 just to satisfy porting demand. Adding these two together, we can say 30,189 visas were used alone for EB2-IC; which also matches closely to our estimated (spillover + annual limit) for FY 2011. Estimated worst-case pending PWMB + new porting still pending at USCIS from the inventory is around 4067 = 8965 + 3102 - 8000

EB3- ROW demand - Inventory for EB3-ROW matches closely with demand data last released for November visa bulletin. As mentioned before that year to year inventory for EB3-ROW does not make sense as some so called 'hidden demand' always appear. We will expect to see atleast PD July 2006 for FY 2012 due to high EB3-P demand of 7725 for CY 2006. Please note that CP demand for EB3-P is not included in this  inventory. In past such demand were as high as 30% for CP cases.

EB3- India - Inventory for EB3-India compared to last fiscal year reduced by 4884 (2803 annual limit + 2081 estimated porting and/or case abandonment upto January 2003 ). Minimum movement around 08 November 2002 is expected. Movement can be little more if more folks from November-December 2002 will port for this year.

EB4- demand - Last year, EB4 demand was high or at par, and hence no spillover was received from this category. Demand for this category looks 50% less compared to last year. This category should be followed closely for rest of the year. Some spillover may be possible from this category.

EB5- demand - EB5 demand is similar level as last year and may yield around 3000-4000 unused visa numbers if similar demand is seen in FY 2012.

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H.R. 3012 approved by the Judiciary Committee and Moved to House Floor

The Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, H.R. 3012, was introduced by Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) on September 22, 2011 and was approved today by judiciary committee for consideration in chamber. Please see below the steps that bill has to undergo before becoming a law. Bill  has currently completed Step 6 (see below). The effect of this bill on different EB categories will be presented once bill is passed and becomes a law.

The bill aims to eliminate per-country visa limits, which are currently causing severe backlogs in green card. As of right now, the Immigration and Nationality Act allows for only 140,000 employment-based visas to be allocated each year.  At present, the percentage of visas that can be allocated to any one country is capped  at  7% percent of all of the employment-based visas available.

Under the Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, , the per-country limit on employment-based visas would be eliminated by 2015 after a 3 year phase-in period.  During the 3 year transition, the vast majority of Employment Based visas would be allocated on first-in-first out basis in order to eliminate the current backlogs. In FY 2012, backlogged countries would receive unreserved visas - 85% of the visa allocation. In FY 2013 and FY 2014  they would receive 90% of the visa allocations.

H.R. 3012 also  increases from 7% to  15%  percent the total number of available visas regarding per-country restrictions for family-based immigrants.

  

How a Bill Becomes Law?

There are potentially 10 steps a bill can go through before becoming a law. Below is a description of each step in the process, using the Genetic Information Non-Discrimination Act of 2003 (S. 1053), as an example.

Step 1: A Bill Is Born

Anyone may draft a bill; however, only members of Congress can introduce legislation, and, by doing so, become the sponsor(s). The president, a member of the cabinet or the head of a federal agency can also propose legislation, although a member of Congress must introduce it.

Step 2: Committee Action

As soon as a bill is introduced, it is referred to a committee. At this point the bill is examined carefully and its chances for passage are first determined. If the committee does not act on a bill, the bill is effectively "dead."

Step 3: Subcommittee Review

Often, bills are referred to a subcommittee for study and hearings. Hearings provide the opportunity to put on the record the views of the executive branch, experts, other public officials and supporters, and opponents of the legislation.

Step 4: Mark up

When the hearings are completed, the subcommittee may meet to "mark up" the bill; that is, make changes and amendments prior to recommending the bill to the full committee. If a subcommittee votes not to report legislation to the full committee, the bill dies. If the committee votes for the bill, it is sent to the floor.

Step 5: Committee Action to Report a Bill

After receiving a subcommittee's report on a bill the full committee votes on its recommendation to the House or Senate. This procedure is called "ordering a bill reported."

Step 6: Voting

After the debate and the approval of any amendments, the bill is passed or defeated by the members voting.

Step 7: Referral to Other Chamber

When the House or Senate passes a bill, it is referred to the other chamber, where it usually follows the same route through committee and floor action. This chamber may approve the bill as received, reject it, ignore it, or change it.

Step 8: Conference Committee Action

When the actions of the other chamber significantly alter the bill, a conference committee is formed to reconcile the differences between the House and Senate versions. If the conferees are unable to reach agreement, the legislation dies. If agreement is reached, a conference report is prepared describing the committee members' recommendations for changes. Both the House and Senate must approve the conference report.

Step 9: Final Action

After both the House and Senate have approved a bill in identical form, it is sent to the president. If the president approves of the legislation, he signs it and it becomes law. Or, if the president takes no action for ten days, while Congress is in session, it automatically becomes law. If the president opposes the bill he can veto it; or if he takes no action after the Congress has adjourned its second session, it is a "pocket veto" and the legislation dies.

Step 10: Overriding a Veto

If the president vetoes a bill, Congress may attempt to "override the veto." If both the Senate and the House pass the bill by a two-thirds majority, the president's veto is overruled and the bill becomes a law.

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December 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

December Visa Bulletin will be the third bulletin for FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for December 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

December 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions

• EB3- China could advance to 08 September 2004
• EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 15-Jan-2006.
• EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
• EB3-India could advance to 01 August 2002.
• EB2-India and EB2-China could see 3-6 months in coming bulletins.  It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Movement is solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake new demand for FY 2012. At this time, total movement as huge as 3-6 months in one or two steps in coming month(s) cannot be discarded before we may see retrogression. In next few bulletins, dates can move anywhere from Jan 2008 – June 2008. Although DOS warned about stall, they may (should) not stall current movement as such movement may not consume visas until these applications will become documentarily qualified.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

Visa Bulletin - November 2011

November 2011 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released on Wednesday, October  5th, 2011. November visa bulletin brought 3.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories. as hoped in our last prediction  DOS at this point is still in-taking new demand for  FY 2012 as cut-off dates for  EB2-IC has now crossed the latest  and favorable PD of July 2007 that was ever current. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P still not seeing enough reduction in demand data month-to-month. Family Based category  saw some movement.

Q
Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by three and a half (3.5) months to November 1, 2007.
• EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only two (2) weeks to December 22, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to August 22, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to July 22, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by two (2) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to November 15, 2005.  It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to June 15, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 moves forward (again, for second month).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to July 22, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 1, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to February 8, 1997.
• FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to February 15, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2008.
• FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 1, 2003.  FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by ten (10) weeks to July 15, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

 

FB Categories
No Notes

EB Categories

CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007.  This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices.  While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis.  Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility. 

Demand Data used for November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement

 

EB2-India & China Movement 

Demand Data for EB2-IC reduced by 5400 compared to last month to account for movement upto July 15th  2007 in October Visa Bulletin. This reduction in demand allowed DOS to move dates to 01 Nov  2007 for  the current bulletin. We expect that total movement for this month could bring in 13,976 (inclusive 2,675 from demand data) demand. So far for last two months, USCIS would eventually see demand around 5400+13976 = 19,376 once these applications would convert into documentary qualified applications. Out of these, 8,000 is known demand upto July 2007. As we all know, DOS will not be able to sustain this ready-to-use demand for long time unless it will retrogress dates next visa bulletin or eventually start using quarterly spillover.  


I have a very strong feeling that DOS really want to use quarterly spillover, and hence we are not seeing many EB2-IC approvals from TSC yet. So far, NSC is in par with the EB1 and EB2-ROW demand but TSC still have some catching up to do in this regard. Once EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is satisfied, apparently it will be easy for USCIS/DOS to rationalize use of left over quarterly visas as spillover. Mr. Oppenheim clearly mentioned in the visa bulletin that some more significant movement in expected during this fiscal year before he will decide to pull the plug. Total visa demand for EB2-IC  that he may have in mind can be any where from 25000-30000 including annual visa quota. We already know 19,376 is already taken care of and atleast 5600 - 10,600 more intake is expected for this year at some point. In  terms of cut-off dates this means, we can see January 2008 - April 2008 current anytime.

It is difficult to guess when such movement will happen but atleast 3-6 months total  movement in one or two steps is expected. Such movement for December or January visa bulletin cannot be discarded at this time although current bulletin clearly mentioned such movement should not be expected as a norm on monthly basis. Eventually when dates will retrogress, it is expected to reach June 2007 PD in worst case. We still believe for current fiscal year November 2007 will receive green card and December 2007-January 2008 will be on the edge. Individuals with PD from Jan- June 2008 can expect EAD, with June 2008 having slim chance and March 2008 best .
Calculations for 19,376 demand

• EB2-IC PERMs from August 2007 - October 2007 = 4651
• That will convert into I-140s (78%) - 4651 * 0.78 = 3627
• Total I-485 filed -  3627 * 2.25 (Dependent factor) = 8161
• People who missed boat in 2007 from PD 15 April 2007  = 2865
• Carry over PWMB from FY 2011 that will be "doc qual" = 350
• Visible Demand from PD 15 April 2007 - July 2007 = 8000
• Porting not considered so far. 
• Adding total demand in BLUE = 8161+2865+350+8000 =  19,376

Projection for EB3 Category
Projections for EB3 ROW-M-P will be handled separately in different updated article. Increase in demand  for EB3-P will affect overall movement for aforementioned categories. As of now July 2006 PD looks like best case for this FY 2012. Demand for three categories only reduced by 1475 compared to last month when 2200 visas numbers out of 2933 is expected at minimum. More updated analysis is required. EB3-India and China are moving as expected.