Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Friday, March 4, 2011

Can America keep best, brightest immigrants? - MSNBC Nightly News

Posted On Friday, March 04, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

America's visa restrictions lead to reverse brain drain

Please see the video. Tom Brokaw addresses the concern that America is losing its best and brightest immigrants because of visa restrictions. From 1995 to 2005, a quarter of start-up technology or engineering companies had at least one immigrant founder. It talks about most of the H1B issues with not much emphasis on Employment-Based Green Cards.



Look around the offices of SnapDeal, an online coupon business, and it's not hard to see all the signs of a thriving venture.

A young staff full of drive and ambition, a tote board on the wall tracking new customers, one about every second.

But SnapDeal isn't in Silicon Valley — it's in New Delhi, India.

Kunal Bahl, 27, and his partner, Rohit Bansal, launched SnapDeal in February 2010. They're already the No. 1 e-commerce retailer in India.

“SnapDeal is a very simple concept,” Bahl said. “Every day there is one attractive deal and people come to the website, buy the deal and go use it at the merchant.”

Bahl's company has created 300 jobs — and counting. But he sometimes wonders "what if …?" What if the country where he got his education, where he helped start a company while still in business school, had let him stay?

“I put my chips in the American basket and said let me try my hand here,” said Bahl, who earned an engineering degree from the University of Pennsylvania and a business degree from its Wharton School.

But Bahl's visa ran out, and he took his skills back to India.

The United States issues only 85,000 of the so-called H1B visas for highly skilled workers each year. And these expire after six years.

There's broad agreement that the current immigration and visa system needs reform — that's going to need to come from Congress.

Still, the State Department does what it can to help encourage entrepreneurship around the world.

The San Francisco Bay Area — the home of Silicon Valley, Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley — has always been a magnet for the best and brightest from foreign lands, but now many are wondering, why do U.S. immigration officials make it so hard for them to stay?

“We're strengthening our competitors, we're weakening ourselves,” said Vivek Wadhwa, a visiting professor at Berkeley and research associate with the Labor and Worklife Program at Harvard Law School. He has been warning of a "reverse brain drain" for years.

"There are a lot of very good human beings who are unemployed, who have lost their jobs,” Wadhwa said. “It's easy for them to blame foreigners. What they don't understand is people like me, when I came to this country, I came to study. My first company created 1,000 jobs. My second company created 200 jobs.

Wadhwa's research found that between 1995 and 2005, 25 percent of startups in Silicon Valley had at least one immigrant founder. And those startups created nearly a half-million jobs.

U.S. immigration rules are big roadblocks for the enterprising foreigners.

Martin Kleppmann, German co-founder of San Francisco startup Rapportive, which shows users everything about their contacts from inside their email inboxes, said everyone has stories to share about how painful the visa process has been.

“You're trying to quickly engage with customers — make sure that everything's developing, and at the same time, you've got this huge distraction — worrying whether you're going to get kicked out of the country,” said Kleppmann, who has a bachelor's in computer science from the University of Cambridge and studied music composition at the Royal Scottish Academy of Music and Drama.

At a gathering of nearly a dozen young Silicon Valley entrepreneurs recently, more than half said they think they’ll end up back in their home countries rather than staying in the U.S. because of visa issues — and they would take jobs with them when they leave.

Immigration officials often don't even understand the technology business.

Kleppmann drew laughs from the group when he explained an example.

“In our case — we got a beautiful letter from the immigration service asking to prove that we had enough warehouse space to store our software inventory. We don't even have boxes of software, it's all on the Internet."

Sakina Arsiwala of India co-founded San Francisco-based Campfire Labs, a startup that wants to "change the way people think of social interactions in the real world and online."

“Why deal with all this, you know, old school immigration systems, just go where you're wanted, you know?” said Arsiwala, a software engineer who formerly headed YouTube's international business for Google. She studied at the University of Mumbai and San Francisco State University.

Bahl went where he felt welcome. Close to family in a newly vibrant India.

“There is no ‘either or’ relationship between the American dream and the Indian dream, Bahl said. “They can both exist, it's just that the guys who are building the Indian dream right now could have been part of the American dream, too.”

In an interesting twist in Bahl's case, he's looking into launching SnapDeal internationally, including in the U.S., and hiring Americans to help him do it.


Source - http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41894670/ns/business-consumer_news/


No new H or L visa appointments will be made at the Mumbai Consulate

Posted On Friday, March 04, 2011 by Rav 0 comments


Partial Reduction in Visa Operations at U.S. Consulate, Mumbai
March 3, 2011

The U.S is committed to facilitating the visa interview process throughout India. We are constructing a new Consulate for Mumbai. The new multi-million dollar Mumbai Consulate facility is scheduled to open later this year.

Unfortunately, the current Mumbai Consulate building’s aging infrastructure has forced us to close several of the interview windows in Mumbai, limiting the number of applicants that can be accommodated at a given time.

If you have already scheduled an H or L visa interview appointment at the Mumbai Consulate, you may keep that interview time. No new H or L visa appointments will be made at the Mumbai Consulate. New H and L interviews may be scheduled at the other U.S. Consulates in India or the Embassy in New Delhi.

Appointments will be scheduled via VFS at https://www.vfs-usa.co.in/USIndia/Index.html. Appointment times can be found on the VFS website.


April 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Posted On Friday, March 04, 2011 by Rav 57 comments

April 2011 Visa Bulletin will be out soon. Here is the prediction for April 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

Predictions
  • EB3- China could advance to 15 April 2004
  • EB3-Philippines could advance to 01 August 2005. (Correction : EB3 - Philippines would advance to 22 July 2005. At no point retrogressed country can have Priority Date beyond EB3- ROW)
  • EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 February 2004.
  • EB3-ROW could advance to 22 July 2005.
  • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
  • EB3-India could advance to 01 April 2002.
  • EB2-India would not see any movement.
  • EB2-China could advance to 15 Jul 2006.



Thursday, March 3, 2011

H1B FY 2012 Will Not Require Online Preregistration of Employers to File H-1B Cap Petitions

Posted On Thursday, March 03, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

As per recent press release by USCIS, it seems like H1B Pre-registration rule will not be effective until March 2012. So individuals planning to apply for H1B-FY 2012 should not worry about this at this time. Please read press release and FAQ on the rule below. The proposed rule was posted to the Federal Register today for public viewing. USCIS encourages formal comments on the proposed rule through www.regulations.gov. The comment period runs for 60 days, beginning March 3, 2011, and ending May 2, 2011.

USCIS Announces Proposed H-1B Electronic Registration System to Reduce Costs for U.S. Businesses

March 2, 2011

WASHINGTON—U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is publishing tomorrow a proposed rule that could save U.S. businesses more than $23 million over the next 10 years by establishing an advance registration process for U.S. employers seeking to file H-1B petitions for foreign workers in specialty occupations. The proposed electronic system would minimize administrative burdens and expenses related to the H-1B petition process—including reducing the need for employers to submit petitions for which visas would not be available under the statutory visa cap.

USCIS Director Alejandro Mayorkas today announced the opening of a 60-day comment period that will allow businesses and the general public to provide input on the proposed system in order to ensure it best meets the needs of employers that rely on H-1B visas to bring in foreign workers for specialty occupations.

“The proposed rule would create a more efficient and cost-effective process for businesses interested in bringing workers in specialty occupations to the United States,” he said. “Improving the H-1B petition process is part of USCIS’s ongoing efforts to leverage new ideas and innovation to streamline our operations and enhance customer service.”

Under the proposed rule, employers seeking to petition for H-1B workers subject to the statutory cap would register electronically with USCIS—a process that would take an estimated 30 minutes to complete. Before the petition filing period begins, USCIS would select the number of registrations predicted to exhaust all available visas. Employers would then file petitions only for the selected registrations. The registration system would save employers the effort and expense of filing H-1B petitions, as well as Labor Condition Applications, for workers who would be unable to obtain visas under the statutory cap.

The proposed rule, which posted to the Federal Register today for public viewing, contains complete details about the registration system and estimated cost savings. USCIS encourages formal comments on the proposed rule through www.regulations.gov. The comment period runs for 60 days, beginning March 3, 2011, and ending on May 2, 2011.

For more information on the proposed H-1B rule, please see the accompanying Fact Sheet. For more information on USCIS and its programs, visit www.uscis.gov.


USCIS Seeks Public Comment on Proposed H-1B Registration System Fact Sheet

March 2, 2011

Advance Registration Process Would Reduce Costs for U.S. Businesses

Introduction

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is seeking public comment on a proposed rule that could save U.S. businesses more than $23 million over the next 10 years, according to USCIS estimates. This proposed rule would establish an electronic registration process for U.S. employers seeking to file H-1B petitions for foreign workers in specialty occupations. The proposed electronic system would minimize administrative burdens and expenses related to the H-1B petition process—including reducing the need for employers to submit petitions for which visas would not be available under the statutory visa cap.

The proposed rule was posted to the Federal Register today for public viewing. USCIS encourages formal comments on the proposed rule through www.regulations.gov. The comment period runs for 60 days, beginning March 3, 2011, and ending May 2, 2011.

Background

The H-1B is a non-immigrant visa which allows U.S. employers to temporarily employ foreign workers in specialty occupations. USCIS proposes to establish an advance, electronic registration process for U.S. employers seeking to file H-1B petitions subject to either the 65,000 statutory cap or the 20,000 statutory visa cap exemption. By statute, H-1B visas are subject to an annual numerical limit, or cap, of 65,000 visas each fiscal year. The first 20,000 petitions for these visas filed on behalf of individuals with U.S. master’s degrees or higher are exempt from this cap.

Under the proposed rule, USCIS would establish an advance registration system. USCIS would inform the public of the registration process for any given year on its website at www.uscis.gov. The proposed advance registration process would require employers seeking to petition for H-1B workers subject to the statutory visa cap to simply register electronically with USCIS—a process that would only take 30 minutes to complete. Before the petition filing period begins, USCIS would select the number of registrations estimated to exhaust all available visas. Employers would then file petitions only for the selected registrations. The registration system would save employers the currently imposed effort and expense of submitting H-1B petitions, as well as Labor Condition Applications (LCA), for workers who would be unable to obtain visas under the statutory cap.

Questions & Answers

Q1. Why is USCIS proposing a change to the H-1B filing process?
A1. This rule reflects the Obama administration’s commitment to smart, tough and effective strategies that leverage the U.S. immigration system to the greatest benefit of immigrants and businesses. The proposed registration system would save employers the effort and expense of submitting full H-1B petitions, as well as LCAs, for prospective employees who will not be able to obtain visas under the statutory cap.

The current process requires U.S. employers to first obtain an LCA from the U.S. Department of Labor. Upon certification of the LCA, the employer may then file an H-1B petition with USCIS on Form I-129 (Petition for an Alien Worker). USCIS may only accept the properly filed H-1B petition if the statutory cap has not been reached.

Q2. Will the proposed advance registration process go into effect right away?
A2. No. Publication of the proposed rule is only the beginning of the regulatory process where USCIS announces its proposal and solicits public comments on that proposal. This proposed rule provides for a 60-day public comment period, which will allow businesses and the general public to provide input on the proposed system in order to ensure it best meets the needs of employers that rely on H-1B visas to bring in foreign workers for specialty occupations. After receipt and analysis of the comments, USCIS will draft a final rule. The registration process would only become effective after the final rule is published.

Q3. How would this advance registration impact the processing time for H-1B petitions?
A3. This proposed rule would not impact the processing times for Form I-129, once an H-1B petition has been accepted for adjudication.

Q4. What is the estimated financial impact of this proposed rule for businesses?
A4. USCIS prepared an economic assessment of the benefits and costs anticipated to occur as a result of this rule, and we estimate that the net savings for H-1B petitioners would be more than $23 million over the next 10 years.

Q5. When could USCIS use this advance registration process?
A5. This electronic registration system will not go into effect until a final rule is published and becomes effective. If a final version of the rule is published by January 2012, USCIS could implement the proposed registration system for the fiscal year 2013 H-1B season, which opens in April 2012.

Q6. How may I provide comments on the proposed registration process?
A6. To comment on the proposed rule, members of the public can submit written comments by using any one of the following methods:

  • Federal Rulemaking Portal: www.regulations.gov. Follow the instructions for submitting comments.
  • E-mail: rfs.regs@dhs.gov. Please include DHS Docket No. USCIS-2008-0014 in the subject line of the message.
  • Mail: Chief, Regulatory Products Division, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, Department of Homeland Security, 20 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20529-2020. To ensure proper handling, please reference DHS Docket No. USCIS-2008-0014 on your correspondence. This mailing address may also be used for paper, disk, or CD-ROM submissions.
  • Hand Delivery/Courier: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, Department of Homeland Security, 20 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20529. Contact telephone number: 1-202-272-8377.
Source: www.uscis.gov


Monday, February 28, 2011

USCIS released I-140 Statistics for EB1 (EB1-A and EB1-B) Category

Posted On Monday, February 28, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

USCIS yesterday released Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140 for EB1 Category for fiscal years 2005 to 2010. USCIS release specifically points that released statistical data for I-140 is for E-11 and E-12 category. As per DHS, definition for E11 and E12 is "Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11)" and "Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12)". New arrivals are usually individuals who has applied from outside the US or CP cases (physically residing outside US), whereas Adjustments are individuals who are currently present in the US in a non-immigrant category adjusting to a immigrant status to receive permanent residence. Since E11 and E12 includes data released for new arrivals it should not include AOS numbers. But this does not look right when you compare USCIS released data and DHS released data on FY 2009 I-485 Visa Number Use as per Class of Admissions. We can see that the numbers are very close when recent released data is viewed in terms of AOS + new arrival. As far as I think, USCIS data does include AOS applicants as well. as new arrivals Please note that I-140 data would only include primary applicants i.e. E11, E16, E12 and E17

DHS Vocabulary on Class of Admissions
Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11)
Aliens with extraordinary ability, adjustments (E16)
Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12)
Outstanding professors or researchers, adjustments (E17)
Multinational executives or managers, new arrivals (E13)
Multinational executives or managers, adjustments (E18)

Fiscal Year 2009 Data

Type and class of admission --------------------------Total----AOS-- New Arrivals

Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11)---------308 -----NA------- 308

Aliens with extraordinary ability, adjustments (E16) --------3,134- - 3,134 ------NA

Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12) ---20------NA------- 20

Outstanding professors or researchers, adjustments (E17)-- 3,412--- 3,412------NA

Multinational executives or managers, new arrivals (E13)---- 214 ----NA------ 214

Multinational executives or managers, adjustments (E18) ---9,718 ---9,718-----NA

FY 2009 I-485 Visa Number Use as per Class of Admissions


Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers




Saturday, February 26, 2011

Can one initiate H1B Transfer after Visa and I-94 has expired when H1B Extension is Pending with USCIS?

Posted On Saturday, February 26, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

If one’s H1B and I-94 has expired and his/her current employer has filed an extension which is pending with USCIS, can one change his/her employer?

Can one initiate H1B transfer when a H1B extension is pending with USCIS?

Different people interpret this in a different way. There is no defined statutory rule about this. This is gray area and solely depends upon discretion of an USCIS official. Your case could be argued in many ways.

a) Since you have filed an extension, your presence in US is legal and hence starting a new transfer should not be a problem. As long as your extension is not revoked or withdrawn by your current employer and you can get your H1B transfer approved before it is withdrawn, you should be fine. In such scenario please ask your new employer to process your H1B transfer case in Premium Processing and do not resign from current employer before your transfer case is approved. It will be wise to stay put.

b) Some officials could argue that since you were assumed to be in legal status based on H1B extension filing, and successive withdrawal of a H1B extension before approval after leaving your current company (even if H1B transfer case was approved before extension withdrawal) makes your presence after your I-94 expiry unlawful in US and hence H1B transfer should be void. You should leave the country immediately.

c) In other cases, officials could cancel your extension and just award you H1B transfer based on Consular processing. In this case you have to go outside the country to get your H1B stamped before you can start working for new employer.

d) Even if your H1B transfer is approved without any hiccups before extension is approved, there is always a chance that question on your legal presence in country could come up during I-485 interview or an approval.

Some of the approaches you can take are

  • Do premium processing in both cases. (Start transfer after Extension approval),
  • Do premium processing for the H1 extension and then after approval of which you can start a normal H1 transfer. You can start working on receiving I-797 receipt
  • Wait until Extension is approved before starting Transfer.

Best approach in this scenario would be to wait till the extension is approved and then start a H1B transfer. In any case please talk to a lawyer before taking any action as this clause is interpreted differently depending on the facts of the case.


Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Senator Hatch wants White House to seek H-1B expansion

Posted On Tuesday, February 22, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Treasury secretary says he agrees with Hatch on need to increase H-1B visa program

Computerworld - WASHINGTON -- U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) berated the White House on Wednesday for failing to urge expansion of the H-1B program.

Hatch, the ranking member of the Senate Committee on Finance, raised his concern at a committee hearing on President Obama's proposed 2012 federal budget. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was its sole witness.

One of the things that would "help our country a great deal is to expand the H-1B and allow these Ph.D.s who are educated here who want to stay here, who are brilliant, who can help us in the high-tech world and other worlds, to stay here," Hatch told Geithner.

"It's ridiculous that the administration doesn't weigh in on [H-1B], and I know why they don't -- but it's ridiculous not to," Hatch said, "And we've now created real competitors in India and China, just to mention two places, but others as well. "

In China, but especially in India, the H-1B visa is critical to offshore outsourcing companies in providing overseas services. These companies were critical of the Senate last year for approving a $2,000 visa fee increase specifically aimed at them. U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who sought the fee increase, said the H-1B program has created "multinational temp agencies."

"We are not doing things that we really ought to do to get competitive," Hatch said. "Weigh in on this H-1B thing. That would help us a great deal."

In response, Geithner said, "I agree with you on H-1B, by the way. It's just a question about how best to do it."

Hatch quickly answered, "Expand it."

The U.S. issues 85,000 H-1B visas each year, of which 20,000 are reserved for advanced-degree graduates of U.S. universities.

The Obama administration has said little about the H-1B program specifically, but in his State of the Union address last month, he urged an easier path to immigration for foreign students who graduate with advanced degrees from U.S. institutions.

Legislation to accomplish that may soon emerge from U.S. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.). Lofgren drafted a proposal that would create a new employment-based permanent residency, or green card, category for advanced-degree graduates. It would bypass the need for an H-1B visa.

Two other senators, Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), want to limit the number of H-1B or L-1 visas to 50% of a company's U.S. workforce, the so-called 50/50 rule.

Patrick Thibodeau covers SaaS and enterprise applications, outsourcing, government IT policies, data centers and IT workforce issues for Computerworld. Follow Patrick on Twitter at Twitter @DCgov or subscribe to Patrick's RSS feed Thibodeau RSS. His e-mail address is pthibodeau@computerworld.com.


Thursday, February 17, 2011

Senator Goodlatte introduced bill to eliminate the DV Lottery Program

Posted On Thursday, February 17, 2011 by Rav 2 comments

Senator Goodlatte of Virginia introduced bill in the house to eliminate the diversity immigrant lottery program. Senator Issa had previously introduced similar bill in House to eliminate DV program and allocate these visa numbers towards issuing permanent residence to Science and Medical students who have earned advanced degree from an American University. These are two bills that are introduced back to back to eliminate DV program.

Here is the actual speech from Senator GoodLatte and text of the bill H.R. 704

SPEECH OF
HON. BOB GOODLATTE
OF VIRGINIA
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2011

* Mr. GOODLATTE. Mr. Speaker, I rise today to introduce the bipartisan ``Security and Fairness Enhancement (SAFE) for America Act.'' This much-needed legislation eliminates the controversial visa lottery program, through which 50,000 aliens are chosen at random to come and live permanently in the United States based on pure luck. The visa lottery program threatens national security, results in the unfair administration of our Nation's immigration laws, and encourages a cottage industry for fraudulent opportunists.

* Because winners of the visa lottery are chosen at random, the visa lottery program presents a serious national security threat. A perfect example of the system gone awry is the case of Hesham Mohamed Ali Hedayet, the Egyptian national who killed two and wounded three during a shooting spree at Los Angeles International Airport in July of 2002. He was allowed to apply for lawful permanent resident status in 1997 because of his wife's status as a visa lottery winner.

* The State Department's Inspector General has even weighed in on the national security threat posed by the visa lottery program. During testimony before the House Committee on the Judiciary, the Office of Inspector General stated that the Office ``continues to believe that the diversity visa program contains significant risks to national security from hostile intelligence officers, criminals, and terrorists attempting to use the program for entry into the United States as permanent residents.''

* Even if improvements were made to the visa lottery program, nothing would prevent terrorist organizations or foreign intelligence agencies from planting members in the U.S. by having those members apply for the program. As long as those individuals do not have previous criminal backgrounds, these types of organized efforts would never be detected, even if significant background checks and counter-fraud measures were enacted within the program.

* Usually, immigrant visas are issued to foreign nationals that have existing connections with family members lawfully residing in the United States or with U.S. employers. These types of relationships help ensure that immigrants entering our country have a stake in continuing America's success and have needed skills to contribute to our Nation's economy. However, under the visa lottery program, visas are awarded to immigrants at random without meeting such criteria.

* In addition, the visa lottery program is unfair to immigrants who comply with the United States' immigration laws. The visa lottery program does not expressly prohibit illegal aliens from applying to receive visas through the program. Thus, the program treats foreign nationals that comply with our laws the same as those that blatantly violate our laws. In addition, most family-sponsored immigrants currently face a wait of years to obtain visas, yet the lottery program pushes 50,000 random immigrants with no particular family ties, job skills or education ahead of these family and employer-sponsored immigrants each year with relatively no wait. This sends the wrong message to those who wish to enter our great country and to the international community as a whole.

* Furthermore, the visa lottery program is wrought with fraud. A report released by the Center for Immigration Studies states that it is commonplace for foreign nationals to apply for the lottery program multiple times using many different aliases. In addition, the visa lottery program has spawned a cottage industry featuring sponsors in the U.S. who falsely promise success to applicants in exchange for large sums of money. Ill-informed foreign nationals are willing to pay top dollar for the ``guarantee'' of lawful permanent resident status in the U.S.

* The State Department's Office of Inspector General confirms these allegations of widespread fraud in a September 2003 report. Specifically, the report states that the visa lottery program is ``subject to widespread abuse'' and that ``identity fraud is endemic, and fraudulent documents are commonplace.'' Furthermore, the report also reveals that the State Department found that 364,000 duplicate applications were detected in the 2003 visa lottery alone.

* In addition, the visa lottery program is by its very nature discriminatory. The complex formula for assigning visas under the program arbitrarily disqualifies natives from countries that send more than 50,000 immigrants to the U.S. within a five-year period, which excludes nationals from countries such as Brazil, Canada, India, the Philippines and others.

* The visa lottery program represents what is wrong with our country's immigration system. My legislation would eliminate the visa lottery program. The removal of this controversial program will help ensure our Nation's security, make the administration of our immigration


H. R. 704

To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to eliminate the diversity immigrant program.

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

February 15, 2011

Mr. GOODLATTE (for himself, Mr. DEFAZIO, Mr. SMITH of Texas, Mr. SHERMAN, Mr. WOLF, Mr. COFFMAN of Colorado, Mr. CONAWAY, Mr. MARCHANT, Mrs. MYRICK, Mr. GALLEGLY, Mr. KING of Iowa, Mr. WEST, and Mr. BILBRAY) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on the Judiciary


A BILL

To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to eliminate the diversity immigrant program.

    Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

    This Act may be cited as--
      (1) the `Security and Fairness Enhancement for America Act of 2011'; or
      (2) the `SAFE for America Act'.

SEC. 2. ELIMINATION OF DIVERSITY IMMIGRANT PROGRAM.

    (a) Worldwide Level of Diversity Immigrants- Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151) is amended--
      (1) in subsection (a)--
        (A) by inserting `and' at the end of paragraph (1);
        (B) by striking `; and' at the end of paragraph (2) and inserting a period; and
        (C) by striking paragraph (3); and
      (2) by striking subsection (e).
    (b) Allocation of Diversity Immigrant Visas- Section 203 of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1153) is amended--
      (1) by striking subsection (c);
      (2) in subsection (d), by striking `(a), (b), or (c),' and inserting `(a) or (b),';
      (3) in subsection (e), by striking paragraph (2) and redesignating paragraph (3) as paragraph (2);
      (4) in subsection (f), by striking `(a), (b), or (c)' and inserting `(a) or (b)'; and
      (5) in subsection (g), by striking `(a), (b), and (c)' and inserting `(a) and (b)'.
    (c) Procedure for Granting Immigrant Status- Section 204 of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1154) is amended--
      (1) by striking subsection (a)(1)(I); and
      (2) in subsection (e), by striking `(a), (b), or (c)' and inserting `(a) or (b)'.
    (d) Effective Date- The amendments made by this section shall take effect on October 1, 2011.


Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Durbin-Grassley's Letter to DHS Secretary to terminate 17-month OPT extension program for STEM students

Posted On Tuesday, February 15, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Senator Grassley and Senator Durbin's letter to DHS Secretary, Janet Napolitano requesting restoring integrity of H1-B Program and reconsidering terminating 17-month OPT extension program for STEM students.


Saturday, February 12, 2011

USCIS to Issue Employment Authorization and Advance Parole Card on a Single Card

Posted On Saturday, February 12, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Introduction

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) today announced that it is now issuing employment and travel authorization on a single card for certain applicants filing an Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Form I-485.

Questions and Answers

Q1. How is this card different from the current Employment Authorization Document (EAD)?
A1. The card looks similar to the current Employment Authorization Document (EAD) but will include text that reads, "Serves as I-512 Advance Parole". A card with this text will serve as both an employment authorization and Advance Parole document.

Employers may accept this card as a List A document when completing the Employment Eligibility Verification, Form I-9.

Q2. Why did USCIS combine these benefits in one card?
A2. With the new card, adjustment of status applicants no longer will have to carry both an EAD and a separate paper Advance Parole document while awaiting adjudication of their Form I-485 applications. Instead, applicants only will have to carry this one credit card-sized card. The new card is more secure and more durable than the current paper Advance Parole document.

Q3. How do I receive the EAD and Advance Parole card?
A3. You may receive this card when you file an Application for Employment Authorization, Form I-765, and an Application for Travel Document, Form I-131, concurrently with or after filing an Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Form I-485. You must file the Forms I-765 and I-131 at the same time in order to receive an EAD and Advance Parole card. Please ensure that you enter your name and address identically on Forms I-765 and I-131 that you file concurrently in order to receive the new card.

Q4. If I receive this card, does that guarantee my re-entry into the United States if I travel?
A4. No. This card authorizes parole, not admission, to the U.S. Parole is not an admission or "entry". If you obtain this card, you may use it to travel abroad and return to the U.S. Upon arriving at a port-of-entry, you should present the card to a Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Officer to request parole. Issuance of an Advance Parole document does not guarantee that CBP will parole you into the U.S. If parole is granted, you will be permitted to come into the U.S. as a parolee, but will not have been 'admitted". Individuals who have been unlawfully present in the U.S. and subsequently depart and seek re-entry through a grant of parole may be inadmissible and ineligible to adjust their status.

Q5. How much does this card cost?
A5. If you submitted an application for adjustment of status on or after July 30, 2007 (or on or after August 18, 2007, for employment-based cases), you will pay only one fee to file Form I-485, Form I-765 and Form I-131. The fee for Form I-485 is $1,070, ($985 plus $85 biometric fee), and there is no separate fee for Forms I-765 and I-131 associated with a Form I-485. For those cases that were filed under the old fee structure, the costs for this card will equal the combined costs of filing Forms I-131 and I-765, which is a total of $740. Visit www.uscis.gov/fees for more information.

Q6. How long is this card valid?
A6. Based on the availability of an immigrant visa, USCIS will issue this card for a period of one or two years. USCIS may also in its discretion issue the card for a longer or shorter validity period, depending on the particulars of the case.

Q7. What if I already have an EAD or an Advance Parole document?
A7. If your Advance Parole document and EAD card have different expiration dates, you may only receive this card if both documents have less than 120 days of validity left, or if the EAD has less than 120 days of validity left and the Advance Parole document is for a single entry only. If you decide to file for this card by filing Forms I-765 and I-131 simultaneously, do not apply more than 120 days before your current EAD expires. The validity period for the EAD and Advance Parole card will begin on the date of the adjudication of the Forms I-765 and I-131.

Q8. Will USCIS still issue separate EAD and Advance Parole documents?
A8. Yes. USCIS will continue to issue separate EAD and Advance Parole documents as warranted. For example, you will receive an EAD without permission to travel if you do not request Advance Parole or if your Form I-765 is approved but your Form I-131 is denied.

Q9. If I lose or damage this card, how do I get another one?
A9. To obtain a replacement card, you must file the Application for Employment Authorization, Form I-765, and Application for Travel Document, Form I-131, concurrently, with the appropriate fee of $380 for the I-765 and $360 for the I-131. Although individuals who file under the current fee structure obtain their first card at no cost, they are required to pay the current application fee(s) for any card that USCIS replaces due to loss, negligence or damage. Visit www.uscis.gov/fees for more information.

Q10. Is this card available to anyone?
A10. No. This card is only available to certain individuals who have pending family or employment based Forms I-485.

Q11. What does this card look like?

A11.


To learn more about USCIS and its programs, visit www.uscis.gov or call the USCIS National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283 or 1-800-767-1833 (TTY).

Source


Visa Bulletin - March 2011

Posted On Saturday, February 12, 2011 by Rav 1 comments



March 2011 Visa Bulletin was released on 11 February, 2011. No movement for Family-Based categories. We expect retrogression for Family-Based F-2A category in coming months. For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB2-India did not see any movement. EB2-China progressed by one week. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current.

Family-Based

Family 1st – no improvement for most countries; one week advance for Mexico and four and a half months advance for Philippines.

Family 2A – most countries retrogressed to January 2007; Mexico advanced to January 2006.

Family 2B – world numbers stalled at April 2003; Dominican Republic advances to January 2001; Mexico advanced one week and Philippines advances two months.

Family 3rd – most countries stalled at January 2001; Philippines advances a month and a half to December 08, 1991; Mexico retrogresses three weeks to 01 November 1992.

Family 4th – most countries stalled at January 2000; Philippines stalled at 15 January 1988; Mexico advances three weeks to 22 January 1996.

RETROGRESSION OF FAMILY PREFERENCE CUT-OFF DATES

Continued heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family F2A preference category has required the retrogression of the Worldwide, China-mainland born, Dominican Republic, India, and Philippines cut-off dates for the month of March. Should the current and recent retrogressions have the intended impact to slow demand for numbers, it is anticipated that these cut-off could begin to move forward slowly in the coming months.

Further retrogressions cannot be ruled out should demand continue at the current levels for some categories and countries.

Employment-Based

Employment 1st – still current in all categories

Employment 2nd – no movement for India; one week improvement for China (08 July 2006) and still stalled for India (8 May 2006).

Employment 3rd – three months advance for most countries to 01 July 2005; three week advance for China to 22 January 2004; three month advance for Dominican Republic to 01 July 2005; three week advance for India to 15 March 2002; Mexico jumps six months to 08 January 2004; three month advance for Philippines to 01 July 2005.

Employment 3rd Other Workers – most countries advance six weeks to 15 June 2003; China stalled to 22 April 2003; Dominican Republic advances six weeks to 15 June 2003; India advances three weeks to 15 March 2002; Mexico stalled at 01 May 2003; Philippines advances six weeks to 15 June 2003.

Employment 4th – still current in all categories

Employment 5th – still current in all categories







Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Demand Data and EB3-EB2 Porting Calculations

Posted On Wednesday, February 09, 2011 by Rav 3 comments

Demand Data that is used to determine cut-off dates for Employment Based Category has been released. You can find Demand Data here. Based on released demand data, visa demand for EB2-India to reach 01 January 2007 has increased from 13,150 to 13,175 from February 2011 to March 2011. This portends that EB2-India will not see any movement in March 2011 Visa Bulletin.

Demand Data for EB2-India for last 4 months

Cumulative Demand

Dec 2010

Jan 2011

Feb 2011

March 2011

01 January 2007

13,150

13,125

13,150

13,175



How to use this data to predict EB3-EB2 porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is

EB3-EB2 Porting = (Demand for current month) - (Demand for past month) + 233


Dec 2010

Jan 2011

Feb 2011

March 2011

EB3-EB2 Porting

258

208

258

258


This suggests that on an average 260 cases are ported every month. This brings total to 3120 cases for a year as long as this trends continue.

Fallacy to above calculations
One fallacy to above method is 'Hidden Demand'. We are not sure about number of ported cases that are received and approved same month due to interfiling. This is what I call 'Hidden Demand', as it could not be accounted for in each month's released demand data. On an average it is taking 20 days to get a green card for a case which is ported and is already pre-adjudicated to use visa numbers. So these cases may not show up in demand data.

How to evaluate current trends in EB3 to EB2 porting?
There is no simple way to predict current trend in EB3 to EB2 porting. One way that I plan to estimate current trend in EB3 to EB2 porting is use of Google Analytics. With Google Analytics, I can drill down to each content on this website and see number of "unique visits" that I have received on each topic every day. This data is well plotted on Google Analytics and could be shared on this blog. This could at least help in breaking down number of individuals who are thinking or actually porting from EB3 to EB2. Results could be complete morass, but I think this can throw a little light on current trend in porting.

Currently this website has three posts on EB3 to EB2 porting.
I plan to analyze each of these posts to predict EB3 to EB2 porting numbers. I believe individuals visiting these topics are either thinking of porting their cases or are in middle of filing new PERM under EB2 category. This data could be leading indicator for the demand that may hit in coming months. The data set that I have analyzed so far suggests on average '20' unique visitors are interested in reading one of the above topics. If we assume that 80% of these individuals are either thinking of porting their cases or actually eligible to porting, number comes around '480' individuals for a month and around '5760' cases for a year. But again this is a small data set with lot of uncertainty. I plan to collect data until second week of March and further analyze it to share results here on website.


Monday, February 7, 2011

March 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB category

Posted On Monday, February 07, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

March 2011 Visa Bulletin will be out soon. Here is the prediction for March 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would allocate visa numbers to each category to utilize their half yearly quota.

Predictions
  • EB3- China and EB3-Philippines could advance by almost a year.
  • EB3-Mexico could advance to February 2004.
  • EB3-ROW could advance to August 2005.
  • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
  • EB3-India could advance by a month.
  • EB2-India would not see any movement.
  • EB2-China could advance by two weeks.



Thursday, February 3, 2011

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2011 - Employment Based Green Card

Posted On Thursday, February 03, 2011 by Rav 61 comments

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date movement for Fiscal Year 2011. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. visa statistics recently released for CY 2010, PERM data published by DOL for CY 2010, latest trend on Trackitt for EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Dates are predicted based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2011. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is predicted.



New Predictions - Last Updated - 01 May 2011

We have added new sections for PWMB and Porting under calculation. Please use our reference mentioned in the PWMB section to calculate total visa based on August visa bulletin cut-off date. We should only consider demand due to porting and PWMB upto August visa bulletin cut-off date for predicting EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. Any demand after August visa bulletin cut off date will not affect EB2-IC movement for this fiscal year. Please assume "August visa bulletin" cut-off date and calculate PWMB and assume Porting numbers based on our calculations. These field are User ENTERED only.

Our worst-case scenario is based on 28,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 30,600. For our worst case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin to reach cut-off date of 1st November 2006. As per these assumptions EB2-IC PD dates would hardly reach 01 January 2007.


Our realistic scenario is based on 24,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 28,600. For our realistic case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin to reach cut-off date of 1st November 2006. In this case, EB2-IC PD dates would reach 08 March 2007.

Our optimistic scenario is based on 20,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 26,600. For our optimistic case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin has to reach cut-off date of 1st January 2007. This bring more porting numbers. In this case, EB2-IC PD dates would reach 01 June 2007.


All these assumptions is based on receiving atleast 5974 unused visa numbers from EB5. Any huge reduction in number will make dates moving difficult. In this cases dates will hardly cross December 2006.


This is it from us until August visa bulletin. Good Luck.



New Predictions - Last Updated - 04 April 2011


Based on currently released statement by Mr. Oppenheim on 12,000 available unused visa numbers from EB1 category to EB2 for FY 2011, we are revising our Predictions for EB2 Category for FY 2011. We are reporting worst-case, realistic and optimistic scenarios for our predictions.


Realistic prediction (01 July 2007) is based on availability of atleast 16,000 unused visa numbers from EB-1 category. We are convinced that EB3-EB2 porting number predictions for individuals with PD before 08 May 06 is not more than 4500. We will stick to our predictions for EB2-ROW, EB4 and EB5 consumption unless we see different trend for rest of the year. Based on all these predictions, EB2-IC dates will progress to 1st July 2007 for FY 2011.


Worst-case (01 April 2007) would be seen only if 12000 unused visa numbers are available from EB1-category, and EB3-EB2 porting numbers would rise to 6000 due to introduction of new porting cases as and when dates would become current for post 08 May 2006 PD; especially if we see huge movement for May visa bulletin. This would give USCIS enough time to consider addition of these new petitions to count them towards available spillover. This jump of 1500 visa numbers to porting would also be used to offset addition of application from petitioners who had originally missed the boat during July 2007 fiasco.


Optimistic movement (01 October 2007) would be seen if EB1-category would yield 20,000 unused visa numbers. We do not predict dates to become current for everyone during FY 2011. If USCIS would not have enough buffer to predict movements for EB2-IC f post July 2007 for FY 2012, dates might move beyond October 2007 by 5-6 months during first quarter of FY 2012.



Predictions that were as of 03 Feb 2011

There are good chances that the dates for EB2-India and China would progress to 1st January 2007 as long as we would see EB-1 demand to be reasonable (around 34,000) and EB3-EB2 porting could stick to assumptions made in the calculations below. Any lower demand for EB-1 (around 30,000) in FY 2011 would take predictions to optimistic level (22nd March, 2007) as long as EB3-EB2 porting could hold it's ground.


In any case, dates are less likely to progress beyond 22nd March, 2007. Reason behind this assumpion is that any EB-1 demand below 30,000 would be offset by equal surge in EB2-ROW demand. We would notice worst-case scenario (8th November 2006) only if EB-1 demand would remain similar or about 38,000 as seen in CY 2010.


The 'unknown' that would pour cold water on each scenario is EB3-EB2 porting. If EB3-EB2 porting for individuals with PD between 2003 to 2007 will exceed 10,000, we might see dates not progressing beyond September 2006 in FY 2011.


We do not expect to achieve any spillover from Family-Based category.


Detailed analysis on Visa Demand data for each category could be seen below in the calculations.


You can enter porting and visa demand for each category in 'User ENTERED' box for your Priority date, and see if your PD would be current with those assumptions.


This Prediction will be updated as and when more data is published - Last Updated 04 April 2011




Notes



Understanding Spillover


Spill Across (SA): It is a horizontal reallocation of visas within a category. (Unused number from EB2 ROW will be allotted to EB2 -India and China)



Fall Down (FD) : It is the vertical reallocation of visas between categories (eg: unused numbers from eb1 go to eb2....) Unused visa numbers in a higher preference level can "fall-down" to lower preference categories. For example, excess EB1 numbers can "fall-down" to EB2.



Fall Up (FU): Unused visa numbers in EB4 and EB5 can "fall-up" to EB1 then to EB2



EB2 - India-China Allocation (IC) - Visa numbers allotment to India and China EB2-category. This is 2,800 for each country or total 5,600.


How spillover works?

Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed


Visa Allocation available each year

EB1 - 40,000

EB2 -ROW-P-M - 34,400

EB2-IC - 5,600

EB4 - 7,854

EB5 - 7,854






Calculations


Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Cross Chargeability - Use your Spouse's Country of Birth for Green Card

Posted On Tuesday, February 01, 2011 by Rav 5 comments

If the principal and derivative beneficiaries were born in different countries, it may be possible to apply cross chargeability principles. This allows individual to expedite his or her green card by using priority date as per their spouse's country of birth. Principle of cross-chargeability can be used for employment-based and family- based green cards.


What is Cross Chargeability?
Visas are usually chargeable to the country of the beneficiary's place of birth. But one basic benefit of immigration to US is that USCIS wants to keep individual's family intact. If one family member were being charged to a country that is over-subscribed, while the other family members in the same preference category were charged to countries that are current, this would result in separation and undue hardship. To remedy this potential problem, the law allows in some situations for the family to elect whichever foreign state is more beneficial. The law seems to limit application to situations where it is necessary to prevent the separation of the spouses or separation of the children and parents. For example, if an Indian citizen is married to Canadian born citizen, he can elect to use ROW as country of chargeability. Law would apply for child as well where he can use his parents country of chargeability. Although vice-versa is not true.

Immigration and Nationality Act [INA 202 (b)(2)]
Rules for Chargeability: if an alien is chargeable to a different foreign state from that of his spouse, the foreign state to which such alien is chargeable may, if necessary to prevent the separation of husband and wife, be determined by the foreign state of the spouse he is accompanying or following to join, if such spouse has received or would be qualified for an immigrant visa and if immigration charged to the foreign state to which such spouse has been or would be chargeable has not reached a numerical level established for that fiscal year;
As per USCIS- "Under a provision of immigration law known as “cross-charging”, if your spouse was born in a country that is not subject to retrogression, you can “charge” against that country’s visa quota. Please note that your spouse must be born in that country. If she/he became a citizen of that country after being born in a country that is subject to retrogression, you cannot cross-charge to your spouse."


Note:
There are exceptions to this rule for some countries (e.g. Kuwait offers citizenship to Original Kuwaiti nationals are those persons who were settled in Kuwait prior to 1920) which allows citizenship only to native people. In this case you may still be able to use cross-chargeabiliy as long as you can reproduce birth certificate issued by a government official from these countries.