Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Monday, January 23, 2012

EB Category FY 2012 Demand Upto January 2012 & Visa-Use Budget

Posted On Monday, January 23, 2012 by Rav 22 comments

 As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of Novemberr 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.



Visa Use Budget and Current EB category demand

From  the available data, please see total EB category demand for visas upto January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used the available data also to estimate Visa-use Budget upto January 2012.

 Reference
Rollover Demand - See this article 
October Demand - See this article

Please note that December and January Demand is calculated from trackitt using factor of 13. This is still an estimation. January 2012 demand is prorated from current data based on 31 days.

Visa use is calculated based on numbers that are used upto today. Please add all the numbers that are circled in red to estimate current visa use.

 Visa use upto January 2012 =  6461 + 8000 + 4805 + 8012 + 1131 + 13468 = 41,877

Please note EB1 use looks high for this quarter only because of high rollover from previous year. If current trend continues then we can expect some more spillover from EB1. This may be the reason that Mr O. is quoting less demand for EB1. We would need to see if trackitt trend will shift due to more new EB1 filings as  year progresses.. EB2-ROW demand does not make sense based on trackitt data. We will like to see more PERM data for Q1 FY 2012 to make this conclusion. Please note that we need more 60K demand from today to use EB annual quota completely. This is based on assumption that EB4 and EB5 may not yield much spillover. Low EB2-ROW consumption could be accounted  to the delays in PERM processing. This may pick up with time.

If any of the trends for EB1 and EB2-ROW is true and will continue like this for few more months, retrogression is not possible until summer. Even if retrogression will happen in such case, I doubt it will go anywhere in late 2008 or may even stall at PD 2009. This looks too good to be true but for now this scenario cannot be discarded. Surprising data that unfolded due to trackitt trend is an eye-opener. Lets watch inventory and I-485 filing receipts for few more months. So far things looks good for EB2-IC (that means less retrogression).



Monday, January 9, 2012

Visa Bulletin - February 2012

Posted On Monday, January 09, 2012 by Rav 67 comments



February 2012 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. February visa bulletin brought 12 months remarkable movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates  ever.  EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by 2 weeks and 6 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category  saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
  • EB-1 remains current across the board.
  • EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by twelve (12) months to January 1, 2010.
  • EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to February 22, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to August 15, 2002.
  • The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 22, 2006.  It also moves forward by two (2) weeks for India to August 15, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:
  • FB-1 moves forward (again, for fifth consecutive month).  FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by nine (9) weeks to December 22, 2004.   FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 22, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 22, 1997.
  • FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to June 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB-2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to May 8, 2009.
  • FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2003.  FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992.   FB-2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to November 1, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
 
EB Categories

Employment First:  Current

Employment Second:
China and India:  Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low.  This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit.  Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off.  Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.   

Employment Third:
Worldwide: up to one month
China: up to one month
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month

Employment Fourth:  Current

Employment Fifth:  Current

Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns.  The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time.  Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.


FB Categories


Worldwide dates:
F1: three to five weeks
F2A: one to two months
F2B: three to four weeks
F3: one to three weeks
F4: up to one month

Demand Data





EB2-India & China Movement

Statement in Visa bulletin clearly tells that so far (i.e. 6th January 2012) upto third business day of January visa bulletin, rate of filings is very low and hence in order to ensure that enough demand is available for USCIS to process during spillover season for FY 2012, dates had moved rapidly.

Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is pointing towards 9412 applications. (2200 I-485 filings from October Receipt Data and 166 trackitt applications gives factor of 13. From October-December 2011, trackitt has 724 pending cases, which converts into 724*13 = 9412 cases). This is too early to suggest that filings are low but we will continue to monitor I-485 Receipt data and trackitt trend for next few days.

DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.

As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That eventual need will be seen around May 2012  visa bulletin i.e. in April. 2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is difficult to determine without inventory data. Retrogression beyond December 2007 is not plausible. If demand continue to stay less, then June September 2008 could be considered as a high mark point for retrogression but for now lets stick to March-June 2008 as cut-off dates for FY 2012 until we see some more inventory numbers.

It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below

EB2-IC rough visa use estimation for FY 2012 that can be accounted upto 31st December 2011 is
Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 22,219
Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007  [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 20,897
*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog pre July 2007, after movements for October - November 2011 VB 

EB3-ROW-M-P Movement 
EB3-ROW-M-P movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,400 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. At current rate, it will take 13 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 22nd July 2006.

 EB3-India & China Movement
EB3-India is currently moving as expected. There is some eventual EB3 to EB2 porting going on at rate of 250 cases per month based on demand data. If this will continue then we can again see some rapid movement for EB3-I in later part of the year, especially in August-September 2012. EB3-China is moving very well with at least 4-6 weeks movement each month. We expect this movement to continue for rest of the year.



Saturday, December 31, 2011

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

Posted On Saturday, December 31, 2011 by Rav 32 comments

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document (thank you to our reader who pointed to this release) - http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf.

Some of the important relevant information can be found on Page 6 of the document which has plots for I-140 EB1 and EB-2 adjudications, including receipts and approvals for the Texas (TSC) and Nebraska (NSC) Service Centers. Report suggests that USCIS has experienced a slight downturn in EB-1 and EB-2 filings over the past five years for both EB-1 and EB-2 (note report does not include National Interest Waiver petitions), with approval and denial rates remaining consistent.

Key point to note here are - 
  • EB1-A and EB1-B has high rate of denial rate, around 40% to 60% respectively. 
  • EB2 I-140 approval rate is close to 100%
  • Respective I-140 filings for each fiscal year 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
  • EB1 majority demand comes from EB1-C and not from EB1-A and EB1-B. Those filings do not look enormous.
Based on I-140 receipt data  and 100% approval rate for EB2 petition, we tried to deduce some I-140 demand for PD 2008, 2009 and 2010.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand based on released data

First of all we started after taking into account the PERMs that were approved for the FY 2008, FY 2009 and FY 2010.

Table I

We know from past analysis that usual break down of PERMs are 65%-35% for EB2-EB3 for India and China, and 50% for EB2-ROW-M-P.  Based on this assumption and 100% approval rate, total I-140 demand for PERMs filed each fiscal year as follow.

Table II
 If we now compare this data with recently released DHS document -http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf. ; then I-140 Receipt numbers come very close to that suggested in above table. Approvals per released DHS document is as follow:


Table III
Reason for difference in two numbers can be accounted based on
  • First of all data is based on PERM approvals and some of demand from past fiscal year will roll-over into current fiscal year I-140 demand due to time lag between approval of PERM and filing of I-140s
  • Our assumption of 65% and 50% is flat and there may be a difference month to month.
  • Please note NIW applicants do not have to file PERM and hence that difference in negated here. 
In addition to above numbers we should remember that lot of PERM cases that were filed with PD 2008 and PD 2009 were audited  and were later approved in FY 2011. Few cases were approved in FY 2010 but we will neglect it for time being. If we will look at the EB2-IC and EB2-ROW-M-P breakup for FY 2011, we can see demand from PD 2008 and PD 2009 that will come from approvals in FY 2011.

This data comes from these articles
a) FY 2011 Q1-Q2 PERM data
b) FY 2011 Q3 PERM Approvals
c) FY 2011 Q4 PERM Approvals


Table IV
 Please note that from above table it is difficult to deduce EB2 I-140 Receipts of 39000 reported in DHS document. Our estimation only shows 21,034 receipts. This is still a mystery to us.

EB2-India & China demand based on Priority Date
To calculate this for now we can neglect the difference that we see in DHS I-140 Receipts data (Table II)  and I-140 demand data from PERM approvals (Table III), then we can roughly estimate total EB2-IC I-140 demand for each fiscal year just by using Table II. In order to capture FY 2011 approvals for old priority dates, we will add EB2-IC demand for each fiscal year to respective approvals in FY 2011. Based on above calculations, estimate for EB2-IC I-140 demand is  (in red)


Table V

Some key points to note
  •  I-140 Receipt demand will always lag PERM Approval times.
  • Difference between 29000 - 27588 = 1412 from Table II and Table III can account for some demand before October 2007.
  • It is assumed that most of the cases for certain priority date is approved in same fiscal year, so total demand upto end of FY 2010 will be same but real numbers for each  PD may be off depending upon PERM approval time within that fiscal year.
  • These calculations do not consider any abandon cases due to individuals leaving country, getting lay-offed or re-filing due to long audit processing time, multiple PERM factors or double filings within a family. You can assume anything from 65%-85% for this as a multiple PERM factor.
  • This data does not consider any EB3-EB2 portings.
  • You can multiply this demand by 2.0 to 2.25 based on dependent factor to get estimate of I-485 demand.


 EB2-India & China I-485 demand based on Priority Date

 To above numbers you can add 8000 visa numbers that was approved for this fiscal year. Also add demand from August 2007-September 2007 plus 4000-5000 PWMBs overall and then based on your estimation of spillover calculate cut-off date on retrogression.


My take will be the option Multiple PERM factor of 75%.
EB2-IC demand , August-September 2007 from PERM data = 4,000
All PWMBs =                                                                             4,500
EB2-IC Approvals for backlogged cases =                                8,000
Demand until Sep 2008 =                                                         25,233
__________________________________________________________
Total I-485 Demand upto September 2008 =                           41,733 

Spillover + annual limit expected at most can be around   28,000

Cut-off Dates for this year can hover around March-June 2008 after retrogression for the best scenario.


Thursday, December 29, 2011

PERM Approvals : Q4 FY 2011

Posted On Thursday, December 29, 2011 by Rav 6 comments

Here is a break down of PERM data (certified and certified_expired only) that was processed each month for FY 2011 Q4. Data has been broken down among different PDs that were approved per month in Q4 FY 2011.  Total 16,937 PERMs were approved in Q4- FY 2011. In addition to this, see PERM database based on PD that is updated until FY 2011.































In addition, please see distribution of PERM approvals segregated based on country of chargeability and category. Most of the PERMs filed in FY 2011- Q4 belonged to India and ROW. It is becoming apparent that with passing time, most of the individuals are filing their cases in EB2 category. 

Most importantly it should be noted that the EB2-ROW-M-P demand is progressing towards around 4000 PERMs per quarter, which if continued through out the year may convert into 4000*2*4 Qtr = 32000 I-485 applications for the fiscal year. This means spillover expected from EB2-ROW-M-P at this rate is 3000-7000 depending upon I-485 denial rate of 0%-15%.


Thursday, December 22, 2011

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific for USCIS Adjudicators

Posted On Thursday, December 22, 2011 by Rav 14 comments

 Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

Burden of Proof and Standard of Proof

The burden is on the petitioner to establish that he or she is eligible for the benefit sought. This means that if an alien seeking a benefit has not shown eligibility, the application should be denied. The government is not called upon to make any showing of ineligibility until the alien has first shown that he is eligible. You may contrast this in your mind with a criminal case or with a removal hearing in which the government must first prove its case.

Evidential Standards
 
Because the strict rules of evidence used in judicial proceedings do not apply in administrative proceedings, a wide range of oral or documentary evidence may be used in a visa petition proceeding or other immigration benefit application proceeding. A copy of a public record (birth certificate, marriage or divorce certificates, adoption decrees, and similar documents) is admissible if the person having custody over the original records has certified the copy. For example, a copy of a divorce decree is admissible if the clerk of the court has certified the copy. A regulation, provides that a certified copy of a foreign public record (other than a Canadian record) should also be authenticated by a U.S. Foreign Service officer or, if the country is a party to the Hague Convention on abolition of legalization requirements for foreign public records, by a higher-level official of the foreign country.


Best Evidence Rule

In adjudicating a petition or application for a benefit, immigration officer will often deal with evidence and facts which are of a documentary nature, such as marriage dates, dates of birth, death, divorce, criminal records, school records, etc. This often brings into play what is known as the "best evidence rule.” While the best evidence rule is not strictly applicable in an administrative proceeding, IOs should adhere to it as closely as they can. The rule states that where the contents of a document are at issue in a case, the document itself must be introduced rather than secondary evidence as to its content. 


Primary and Secondary Evidence

Closely related to the best evidence rule is the concept of primary and secondary evidence. Primary evidence is evidence which on its face proves a fact. For example, the divorce certificate is primary evidence of a divorce. Secondary evidence is evidence which makes it more likely that the fact sought to be proven by the primary evidence is true, but cannot do so on its own face, without any external reference. In the above example, church records showing that an individual was divorced at a certain time would be secondary evidence of the divorce. 
Adjudicators will often encounter situations in which primary evidence is unavailable. This gives rise to a presumption of ineligibility , which is the applicant or petitioner’s burden to overcome.  A petitioner or applicant cannot simply assert that the primary evidence does not exist. The absence of a primary record, instead, must be proven either:

  • By a written statement from the appropriate issuing authority attesting to the fact that no record exists or can be located, or that the record sought was part of some segment of records which were lost or destroyed; or 
  • By evidence (such as an affidavit) "that repeated good faith attempts were made to obtain the required document or record."

To check country-specific information on availability of various foreign documents see below drop-down menu that is used by Immigration Officers. If this Appendix shows that a particular record is generally not available in a particular country, USCIS may accept secondary evidence without requiring the written statement from the issuing authority.


COUNTRY SPECIFIC REQUIRED DOCUMENTS



General List of Commonly Required Documents

Birth Certificates

You (and any family members immigrating with you to the United States) must obtain an original birth certificate issued by the official custodian of birth records in your country of birth, showing your date of birth, place of birth, and parentage.

The certificate must contain the:
  • Your date of birth
  • Your place of birth
  • Names of both parents
  • Indication by the appropriate authority that it is an extract from the official records
Unobtainable birth certificates

If your birth record is not obtainable for any reason, a certified statement must be obtained from the appropriate government authority explaining why your birth record is unavailable. You must also submit secondary evidence such as:
  • A baptismal certificate that contains the date and place of birth, as well as both parents names (providing the baptism took place shortly after birth)
  • An adoption decree for an adopted child
  • An affidavit from a close relative, preferably your mother, stating the date and place of birth, both parents names, and your mother’s maiden name.
Note: An affidavit executed before an official authorized to take oaths or affirmations must also be provided.


 SAMPLE AFFIDAVIT


AFFIDAVIT BY  Mr. xxxxxx (FATHER NAME) & Mrs.xxxxxxx (MOTHER NAME)

Re: [YOUR FULL NAME]

I, Mr. [FATHER FULL NAME] & Mrs. [MOTHER FULL NAME], here by depose and say:
1.    Our  full and complete address is xxxxxxxxxxx
2.      That I, FATHER'S FULL NAME Age XXX, was born on MM/DD/YYY in the town/city of xxxxxxxx
3. That I, MOTHER'S FULL NAME Age XXX, was born on MM/DD?/YYY in the town/city of xxxxxxxx
4.     We got married on MM/DDYYY in the city of XXXXXX, COUNTRY.
5.     We, FATHER'S & MOTHER'S FULL NAME are parents of the following children:
a. YOUR FULL NAME born on MM/DD/YY; and
b. YOUR SIBLINGS NAME born on MM/DD/YYYY
6. [YOUR FULL NAME] was born in CITY, STATE, COUNTRY
7.      This affidavit is being submitted because official full name of [YOUR FULL NAME] was not [mentioned] OR [registered] OR [OTHER REASON] in the birth certificate at the time of birth. [His/Her] Full Name is [YOUR FULL NAME] /OR/ [YOUR FULL NAME] birth was not registered because [reason].

I declare under penalty of perjury, that the foregoing is a true and correct statement.

_________________________
FATHER NAME and signature 



_________________________
MOTHER NAME and signature 

 
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.


Marriage Certificates

Who needs to submit marriage certificates?
If you are married, you must obtain an original marriage certificate, or a certified copy, bearing the appropriate seal or stamp of the issuing authority.

Note: Marriage certificates from certain countries are unavailable. More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.


Court and Prison Records

If you were convicted of a crime, you must obtain a certified copy of each court record and prison record, regardless of the fact that you may have subsequently been granted amnesty, a pardon or other act of clemency.
Court records should include:
  • Complete information about the circumstances of the crime
  • The disposition of the case, including sentence, fines or other penalties imposed


Marriage Termination Documentation

Who needs to submit marriage termination documentation?
If you were previously married, you must obtain evidence of the termination of EACH prior marriage. Evidence must be in the form of original documents issued by an official authority, or certified copies bearing the appropriate seal or stamp of the issuing authority, such as:
  • FINAL divorce decree
  • Death certificate
  • Annulment papers

Deportation Documentation

Who needs to submit deportation documents?
If you have been previously deported or removed from the United States at government expense, you must obtain Form I-212, Permission to Reapply After Deportation, from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service, or from a U.S. Embassy or Consulate, and follow the instructions on that form.

 Military Records

Who needs to submit military records?
If you served in the military forces of any country, you must obtain a copy of your military record.
Note: Military records from certain countries are unavailable.
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.
 

Petitioner Documents

Who needs to submit petitioner documents?
If you are applying for an IR5 (Parent of a U.S. Citizen) visa, you are required to provide:
  1. Original or certified copy of your Petitioner’s birth certificate
  2. Original or certified copy of your Petitioner’s marriage certificate from the Petitioner’s current and all previous marriages.
If you are applying for a F4 (Brother or Sister of a U.S. Citizen) visa you are required to provide:
  1. Original or certified copy of your Petitioners birth certificate.
  2.  

Photocopy of Valid Passport Biographic Data Page

Who needs to submit a photocopy of their passport?
The applicant and each family member accompanying the applicant must submit a photocopy of the biographic data page from their respective valid passport.
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.

Photographs

You must submit two identical color photographs. Review Photograph Requirements for size specifications and more information.


Wednesday, December 21, 2011

October 2011 EB Demand from I-485 Receipt Data

Posted On Wednesday, December 21, 2011 by Rav 16 comments

As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of October 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.


EB2-IC rough demand estimation that can be accounted until October 2011 is

Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 2679 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 15,486

Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 + 2200 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 13,685

*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog, after movements for October - November 2011 VB


Monday, December 19, 2011

EB2-IC Visa Bulletin Movements FY 2012 - Is this how Mr. Oppenheim thinks?

Posted On Monday, December 19, 2011 by Rav 30 comments

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? Or if we can formulate a mathematical expression that outlines his approach to move dates. That is when we started digging into this.

Edited - December 20, 2011

We started looking at the movement that Mr. Oppenheim did for Family-Based Category last year in FY 2010 and FY 2011 to see how he moved the dates and then retrogressed them once he had enough demand. Some key difference that should be noted between two categories are a) annual visas for FB category vs EB category is 260K vs. 140K. When one will reduce these numbers per category, ratio between two visa numbers would be quite similar b) For FB category demand could be easily generated in couple months as long as NVC have enough cases documentarily qualified (majority of demand in FB category comes from overseas consular posts) vs. EB category which rely mostly on USCIS to generate demand. C) Mr. Oppenheim started doing such movement for FB category in June 2010 which was still recalibrating until last fiscal year.

Mr. Oppenheim started doing similar movement of EB2-IC from October 2011. If we will assume that Mr. Oppenheim have similar thought process that he had while determining cut-off dates for FB category, then we should have seen movements as suggested in the column “EB2-IC”. But this was the not the case. Factors a) to c) could be the reason for this. As two categories have different demand and different annual visa numbers, movement could not be just purely based on similar difference. We took first two movements that we saw in the last visa bulletin to fit the best correlation to the data, and equation we received was

Recalibrated EB2-IC Movement

It should be noted that there is a correction in the equation. As forward movement will be less based on factor a) to c), even retrogression should be less than anticipated compared to FB category.

Forward Movement

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) 60 days)

Retrogression

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) +60 days)

This equation closely satisfied movement that we saw for December 2011 and January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used this data to correlate Mr. Oppenheim thought process in order to extrapolate movement for next few bulletins; as long as he will continue to have same thought process for rest of the year.

Fallacy to above method, it does not take into account any EB demand, PERM numbers and assumes similar correlation will exist for rest of the year. Personally, I would request everyone to take this lightly and do not put lot of eggs into this basket. The correlation when outputted was very interesting hence we thought of sharing it with our readers, especially when there is no logic behind current movement (as far as I can tell). It can give better perspective to this process than just going by a gut feeling.

If this will make sense, and will start panning out in next few bulletin then cut-off dates estimated by equation does not make sense from June 2012 – November 2012, I would say in case spillover is enough, dates may stick around December 2008 until June 2012 and then retrogress to September 2007 in August-September 2012 for some time. By this time most of the folks should have received green card from the filings in October-December 2011. Successively dates will move back to June 2008 in October 2013 or beyond. In all, I would not care about movement shown in later half of the table.

Note : Results here are independent of demand and were shared because they looked interesting. By no means this suggests that this is what we may see in next visa bulletins.