April 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
- EB3- China could advance to 08 February 2005
- EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 April 2006.
- EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
- EB3-India could advance to 01 September 2002.
- EB2-India and EB2-China could see 0 months - 3.5 months movement in coming bulletin. Movement in coming months solely depends on how demand for last two visa bulletin. has picked up so far. If January and February bulletin demand for EB2-IC has bloomed as we expected (i.e. based on trackitt trend), then we may not see any substantial movement. Any withered demand means few months movement for EB2-IC.
At this time based on current demand, everyone with PD until October-November
2008 should feel good about receiving green card this fiscal year. This is all based on
receiving 30K spillover including annual quota from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5, which looks plausible. based on current demand. Dates might not retrogress
in this bulletin. We may expect stall or retrogression in May-June VB.
Note – Predictions
are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain
of salt.
four people in CP process got NVC reciept notices, they look genuine...one of them is sep 20 2010and other is 1/20/2011
ReplyDeleteand other is 1/24/2011
and other is Mar 2011
i just want to know based on this how the moment will be.
The NVC reciepts will be only sent when they predict that , those dates will be current by DOS right? and the NVC reciepts will be expired in one year , so can we assume that this dates will be current by end of this year....your analysis on this will be apprciated...please reply back to this post...
Hi cm
ReplyDeleteWhen you say " we may expect stall or retrogression in May-June visa bulletin", does this applies to all category including EB3? Or you are just referring to the EB2? Thanks. Please reply
These people should likely get greened by Jan 2013 by which time DOS can look to consuming max 50% of visa for year (20K) plus spillover for 1 quarter (7.5K?). Can we take this as reference and calculate backwards to look at what data USCIS has in hand?
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling that DOS is looking at different emerging data than what public data we have in different forums. If this is not so, then they could be getting ready to consume max visa through CP for this FY on account of slow processing by USCIS. In which case, we should see big movements in May and June VB.
CM please opine on first para above. We want to benefit from your insights and data analysis.
hi... with regards to EB3 Philippine status, do you think it will move forward or it may retrogress or unavailable before the year ends??? any commen t
ReplyDeleteHi CM
ReplyDeleteis it possible that spillovers go to eb3 ?
wooooh...so good news...pd is march 22, 06...fingerscrossed and hoping for favorable outcomes soon..tnx
ReplyDeleteThanks for this..It really instills hope to all of us who are waiting...The MArch vb is so crucial for me...ty
ReplyDeleteCOULD REACH UNTIL JULY 8,2006 CUT OFF (EB3 ROW/PHIL/MEX IF 3 WEEKS MOVEMENT WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL FY 2012 ENDS. JUST A THOUGHT.
ReplyDeleteHi CM....can you please reply to my above post...with your analysis....
ReplyDeleteHi CM
ReplyDeleteOur PD is June 2008. We are filing for I485 by end of this month. When do you think we will get our GC in hand. We are hoping by August 2012. Do you agree??
thanks,
amtrackitt
HI CM
ReplyDeleteWhat percent H.R3012 will be possibly passed?
My priority date is Oct 20,2010 EB2 I. I just got email from my lawyer that they received NVC receipt notice. Will I be current in next bulletin?
ReplyDeletehi cm
ReplyDeletemy priority date is may 15 2006 eb3-p. what are my chances for a green card this year, if hr 3012 becomes a law?
thank you for this great website.
PDATE-APRIL 23,2006 EB3 philippines. Any possibilities of spill over for eb3 phil?
ReplyDeleteCM,
ReplyDeleteThe possibility of retrogression in may-June vb also applies to eb3? Or you are referring to eb2 only? Do we expect 3-4 weeks movement of eb3 until the end of FY 2012? Thanks so much. I'll be waiting for your reply.
retrogression refers only to eb-2 category. Even the state department mentioned it on previous vb.
ReplyDeleteStill no retrogression? More NVC receipts? What is going on? Severe demand destruction and continuing weak demand in other categories? December filers are getting green in large numbers, and January filers will soon start seeing those cards too. Without retrogression, even February filers will soon appear as demand (by May). How much is the event horizon? Really really interesting and mind blowing. I had no idea EB2-IC had such a steep cliff post July 2007.
ReplyDeleteIf fees is not paid then only receipts will be expired. If fees is paid then it will be valid through out. So there is no such concern about moving dates. I believe NVC resource with respect to EB2-IC receipts available is depleted and they want to have enough numbers available for next year hence they are issuing them. They just want to be ready in case DOS will move dates again. It all depends upon demand if DOS wants to move dates to get more cases for this year. There is no binding for DOS to move dates to fulfill any such request made by NVC. Personally, I believe most of the 2011 cases can expect some action in FY 2013 and best case late in FY 2012.
ReplyDeleteIt will keep moving. No worries in that regards,
ReplyDeleteGood Luck.
ReplyDeleteOh yeah you should be greened this year. I would say in 2-3 months for straight forward case.
ReplyDeleteI do not know that but chances are less so far.
ReplyDelete2010 PDs have some chance this year but I am not sure about others in 2011. You can be current anytime from next VB to early FY 2013. Chances for next VB is slim.
ReplyDeleteYou will be current this year in 2-3 months. For straight case you may even receive GC.
ReplyDeletehi cm,
ReplyDeletemy pd is sept 2006 EB3.. what are the chances that my status will be current this year? thank you!
hi cm,
ReplyDeletemy pd is sept 2006 under eb3 phil. what are my chances of making it to the USA this year? thanks!
EB-3 INDIA.- HOPELESS CASE, ONLY A GREAT MIRACLE CAN HELP.
ReplyDeleteHi CM ,
ReplyDeleteMy date is 2010 july 22 , any chance in april bulletin
Hello CM,
ReplyDeleteMy PD is April26th 2006 ROW?When should i be current?
Thanks
Shiv
Thanks, CM
ReplyDeleteAppreciate your response
Hi CM
ReplyDeleteDo you mean its effective date will be the next year or the next fiscal year?
Most likely in May 2012 Visa Bulletin. If you follow the bulletins and news around them closely you will notice they are moving 2-3 weeks every month. This will be the trend for the rest of the fiscal year. It is expected to reach August 2012 in this fiscal year.
ReplyDeleteDear CM,
ReplyDeleteI need your hep in an immigration matter. I am a physician in H 4 status currently...My I-485 based on my husband's employment based 485 is pending with uscis..The USCIS received date at TSC was Dec 1st, 2011. I received my EAD/AP combo card few weeks ago. My fingerprinting has not yet been done and i took an infopass appoitment for next Friday to ask IO about fingerprinting and hoping it will be done then. Now, I am starting a new job with a university on July 1st. They are applying for my change of status from H 4 to H 1 B. This is a cap exempt university job. I think that's going to be an I-539 application H 4 to H1 B change which will be sent in March 1st week for start date of July 1st..I have advance parole as per the card i received. Please ignore the EAD as i dont plan to use it for employment since it depends on GC approval/denial and i cant risk my job with the university.
MY QUESTION : CAN I TRAVEL IN APRIL AND MAY TO INDIA? Will the H1 B application be considered abandoned if i leave the country? Can I leave the country after decision on H 1 B application and before start date of the job?? what importance does the advance parole have in my case??
Please give your expert opinion as this seems complicated.
Thank you all.
Dear CM,
ReplyDeleteI need your hep in an immigration matter. I am a physician in H 4 status
currently...My I-485 based on my husband's employment based 485 is
pending with uscis..The USCIS received date at TSC was Dec 1st, 2011. I
received my EAD/AP combo card few weeks ago. My fingerprinting has not
yet been done and i took an infopass appoitment for next Friday to ask
IO about fingerprinting and hoping it will be done then. Now, I am
starting a new job with a university on July 1st. They are applying for
my change of status from H 4 to H 1 B. This is a cap exempt university
job. I think that's going to be an I-539 application H 4 to H1 B change
which will be sent in March 1st week for start date of July 1st..I have
advance parole as per the card i received. Please ignore the EAD as i
dont plan to use it for employment since it depends on GC
approval/denial and i cant risk my job with the university.
MY QUESTION : CAN I TRAVEL IN APRIL AND MAY TO INDIA? Will the H1 B
application be considered abandoned if i leave the country? Can I leave
the country after decision on H 1 B application and before start date of
the job?? what importance does the advance parole have in my case??
Please give your expert opinion as this seems complicated.
Thank you all.
CM,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your efforts in replying !
when you say ""Personally, I believe most of the 2011 cases can expect some action in FY 2013 and best case late in FY 2012. "
my PD is Sep 2010, EB2-I. Can I expect to be current in FY2012 or early Fy2013. i,e before Dec 2012.
Just wondering !!
Thanks Again
thank you so much, Sir!
ReplyDeleteHi CM
ReplyDeleteThanks for the great support you've been giving all of us. I have a question regarding my I485 . I apologize i know its not a right place(APR Visa Bulletin) to ask.
I have become current in JAN'2012. My Employer filed concurrent filing for me in last week of JAN. I havent received the RECEIPT for my I485. Any suggestions would greatly help me. I'm really worried as all my friends who are current in FEB Visa Bulletin got their I485 receipt
Thanks
Shashi
Hi CM
ReplyDeleteThanks for the great support you've been giving all of us. I have a
question regarding my I485 . I apologize i know its not a right
place(APR Visa Bulletin) to ask.
I have become current in JAN'2012. My Employer filed concurrent filing
for me in last week of JAN. I havent received the RECEIPT for my I485.
Any suggestions would greatly help me. I'm really worried as all my
friends who are current in FEB Visa Bulletin got their I485 receipt
Thanks
Shashi
You will be current around December 2012 for sure.
ReplyDeleteIt is 50-50 so far
ReplyDeleteIn May visa bulletin.
ReplyDeleteNext fiscal year.
ReplyDeleteOnce you will leave country when COS is pending (H4 to H1B), you will abandon your COS application. You will have to wait until H1B application is approved. In case you will leave when COS is pending then only way for you to enter US will be AP. Once someone enter US on AP, he is categorized as Parolee. Once that is done only EAD is the way for you to work in US. Recommendation will be to wait until H1B approval before you will travel abroad. After decision on H1B you can chose to enter of H1B without even mentioning about AP to Custom Officer..
ReplyDeleteIf retrogression is not severe definitely you can expect. It all depend upon how much retrogression will happen. Since your PD is Sep 2010 you may have little chance to see something in late FY 2012 (less than 20-30%). If this does not happen you can expect something in Q1-Q3 FY 2013 based on retrogression.
ReplyDeleteSince it is more than 30 days you can open SR with USCIS and they will be able to respond you with right receipt numbers. Also ask your lawyer if he received any copies. Last option will be to take infopass but try SR route first.
ReplyDeleteThanks CM.
ReplyDeleteHello CM ive been visiting your website everyday to check for any news and update..just like to ask is there any chance that my priority date will become current this year im from P-eb3 Sept.2006
ReplyDeleteThanks in advance...
EB3 PHIL SEPT 3,2006 MIGHT GET CURRENT ON EARLY FISCAL YEAR OF 2013
ReplyDeleteyou mean CM if one has a pd of aug. 7, 2006, and the pd for sept. 2012 visa bulletin is aug.8, 2006..she/he will not be affected by this law?
ReplyDeletehi CM, thanks for the predictions...my PD is May 03, 2006 ROW....can u predict when I will be current?
ReplyDeleteCM,
ReplyDeleteMy pd is aug. 3 ,2006 eb3 row. Please according to your prediction, when will I be current? Thanks so much
Hi CM,
ReplyDeleteI would like to ask if my PD will be current next month, what are the requirements/documents needed for me to prepare. My PD is March 27, 2006.
Hope to hear from you. Thank you so much for helping all of us.
CM, I am E3 P, with PD Oct 26, 2006 FTJ. My son will be turning 24 this May.We received packet 3 last 2008 and have submitted DS 230 and DS 2001 at the US Emb Manila.Is my son still fall in the category of a child? will he be granted the visa once our PD gets current. THank you so much.
ReplyDeleteCM,I want to ask if my son who turned 24 still falls in the category of a child.We are FTJ. Packet 3 was sent to us since Dec 2008 and DS 230 and DS 2001 has beed filled up right away and sent back to US Emb Manila. Our PD is Oct 26, 2006 under E3P. I admire your advices and predictions..The reason why I want to get your opinion regarding my sons case. God bless
ReplyDeleteWe have the same PD....what state are you going?... Do you still have the same petitioner?...
ReplyDeleteThank You so much CM. Will do that.
ReplyDeleteAssuming you are EB3 ROW, Mexico or Philipines you should be current in April 2012 visa bulletin which will be issued in couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteNow assuming you haven't filled your I-485 yet here are some links that will help you. First one is from USCIS and other two are from renown immigrantion sites. Hope it helps.
USCIS
http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf
Murthy.com
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_docgat.html
ImmigrationRoad.com
http://immigrationroad.com/green-card/i-485-documents-checklist.php
Assuming you are EB3 ROW, Mexico or Philipines, most likely you will be current in June 2012 Visa Bulletin. We are marching towards August 2006 Visa Bulletin by the end of this fiscal year so you can do the math. Its moving approximately 2-3 weeks every month.
ReplyDeleteHope it helps.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteYou might get current in 2012 but most likely it will be in next fiscal year of USICS. In case you don't know USCIS fiscal year runs from October - September each year. The projected estimate for this fiscal year for EB3 ROW, Mexico and Philipines is August 2006. While there is a slim chance that you might get current in this fiscal year but if not you should be current by the end of 2012.
Hope this helps.
hi, my vb june 26 2006, any predictions, and can u pls guide me as to documents that needs to be ready, tnx so much ur such a big help to all anxious ly waiting nurses :D
ReplyDeletemay u pls enlighten me as regarding the I 485? tnx again
ReplyDeletewhat is I 485?
ReplyDeleteCan i change my case to it ?
I am EB3Row with pd oct 2006.
thanks
Hi CM,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the all answers. I really like your site and i was looking around for some questions but i couldn't see what i was looking for thats why i would like to ask now..My PD is May 5, 2006 (ROW EB-3 ALL)...As i learn from your website it might take 2-3 more bulletin to be current.Here is the question,
1.How long time does it take to get GC after PD current?
2.Will the bill H.R. 3012 effect my case incase it passes the US Senate and ultimately become a law? Thank you in advance and looking forward to hearing from you soon.Jaya
Hi CM,
ReplyDeleteI was browsing the USCIS website and have noticed that according to the THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT
NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM file of USCIS
Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled to allotment of a visa
number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since VO groups demand
for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh of a month are grouped
under the 1st, the eighth through the fourteenth under the 8th, etc.) number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since VO groups demand
for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the
first through seventh of a month are grouped
under the 1st, the eighth through the fourteenth under
the 8th, etc.)
I'm not sure if my understanding is correct, but I think if my PD is April 10, 2006 then I'm included in the predicted April 8, 2006 cutoff for EB3Ph April 2012 VB? the statement indicated that PD of 1-7 are grouped to the 1st day of the month cutoff.. then 8-14 are grouped to 8th of the month and so on... However, they have precisely noted that "Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled to allotment of a visa
number." hmm quite confusing, please enlighten me. Thank you
Quick update from our attorney friend - CM
ReplyDelete"We do not have any updates on next month movement but we are filing cases in large number every month since last couple of months, more than we ever completed in previous month. Things really picked three- four fold since last week of January for EB2-India & China. I believe dates will cease to move forward for EB2-India & China in next bulletin. At most, similar movement as seen in last bulletin can be expected. We do not expect retrogression until May-June visa bulletin. We are hoping stall upto July-August 2012.
On your question on receiving visa bill fee from NVC for EB2 with PD 2011, we would like to confirm that we have seen couple requests for our clients with similar priority dates. Most are for late 2010 and early 2011. In past we have seen such request for cases with priority date later than 2007 for EB3 Category. Obviously those dates are not current for so long. It may be as you suggested that National Visa Center is getting ready for next year or worst scenario if dates have to be progressed drastically late in year.We have seen such request to pay fees for all kind of categories regularly. If dates will move this far it will just be based on low demand at USCIS as majority of use for EB2 comes from cases filed via AOS in US. Kind of cases we are filing I do not feel demand should be that low but I cannot say for other firms. "
Please Help. My PD is MAy 11 06 do you have an ideal when I will get my green. Also my daughter is 21 about to be grduated from College, can I still sponsor her.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Hi CM,
ReplyDeleteJust registered here and thanks for a very informative site for immigrants like us whose so hungry about information. Beats almost all sites. :) Anyway, a question here was overlooked by you or havent answered yet, yet I would like to follow it up as I'm curious to know also as I'm almost near current, question:
1. After PD is current how long before we could see, feel or know our case been reviewed or touched. (i.e. like receving letter of approval, welcome letter, rfe's, etc.)
2. And how long or how much time does it take to get GC (in hand) after PD current?
Thank you very much CM and good luck to us all!
Hi Sir ask for advise, my wife pd is may 15, 2006. her passport will expire on april 2013 so six months before is october or november this year. the problem might happen is that by oct or nov and we still can not leave the passport will not be valid anymore. any idea sir if my wife will renew her passport this time and will not allow renewal since the expiration still far or anything to bring like affidavit so that my wife can renew earlier, your advise sir very much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteSOME NURSES WITH EARLY 2006 PDATES GOT PACKET 4 BUT OPTED NOT TO PROCEED WITH INTERVIEW SCHEDULE DUE TO LACK OF JOB OFFER,AS PREVIOUS EMPLOYERS NO LONGER INTERESTED TO HIRE THOSE PENDING NURSES DUE TO VISA RETROGRESSION.IT WOULD TAKE 6 YEARS NOW FOR NURSES BEFORE VISA WILL BE GIVEN,BUT IT WOULD TAKE MORE THAN 6 YEARS FOR NURSES BORN FROM INDIA
ReplyDeleteHi CM. First of all I would like to thank you and your people for your effort in keeping us posted with the most up-to-date and important information. Your blog spot has really helped me as well as the others like me. I am an Eb3 Phil applicant and my PD is July 17, 2006. I'm presently working in the MidEast as a nurse but my packet 4 interview will be held in Manila Godwilling if I'll become current this year. Is there a good probability for me and my family to become current this August 2012? Your input on this will be truly helpful because as of this time, I am in the process of planning my annual leave to coincide within the timeframe of my interview. God bless you.
ReplyDeleteHi CM
ReplyDeletemy POD is Oct 14 2010 , Is there any change i can become current in next i.d April 2012 bulliten.
Thanks for your reply
Pod : Oct 14 2010
ReplyDeleteEB2
INDIAN NURSE HERE. PDATE: JULY 2, 2006. WHE IL GET CURRENT? BY YEAR 2027? NICE!
ReplyDeleteHi, CM,
ReplyDeleteMy PD is Feb, 2011. When will current for my case?
thanks.
Any Idea of Oct 5th 2010?
ReplyDeleteDemand Data is out, CM.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Based on demand data , retrogression may not happen in this bulletin but I am not sure about movement. Numbers for EB2-IC are more than what they were last time. I beleive 2-3 month movement it will be. Anything more menas that USCIS has convinced Mr. O that they can handle approvals in less than 3-4 months for all the cases filed in April VB.
ReplyDeleteEB3-ROW-M-P will moved as predicted by 3 weeks. Good Luck.
r u stupid can’t you find check yourself...based on the current timeline.... if cannot you are not desired to get the green card.
ReplyDeletethanks CM... god Willing and Mr. O willing hopefully couple of months movement..!!
ReplyDeleteOne qq CM.. in the 485 stage, there are three different applications that are filed. right ?
One is for EAD, one is 485 and one for GC.. irrespective of time taken for GC, one should get the EAD in 2-3 months timespan. is that correct ? please guide.
thanks
Why so rude? Looks like you are still a virgin.
ReplyDeletehahahaaa.. that was funny dude.. good one..
ReplyDeleteguys, its a immigration forum.. don't spill ur beans here..
never mind CM.. i got the below info. the three things filed are EAD, AP, 485 . 485 is GC.
ReplyDeleteEAD & AP would come in 2 months. 485 could take whatever time based on visa numbers etc.. please confirm this is valid.
It is true Kumar. I applied for my 485 in July 2007. At the time I also applied for EAD and AP which I recieved in couple of months. I-485 approval requires the date to be current so even if they finished processing your I-485 in 2 months your GC will depend on dates being current at that time.
ReplyDeleteI've been waiting for last 4.5 years for it get current :-(
Hope this answers your question.
April 2012 VB dates for EB2 Nov 2010 or Jan 20111
ReplyDeletewhats your source ?
ReplyDeletehi Guest, for some reason, it wasn't show the 'reply' link next to your message. so I am replying on my own message. So, as per your statement; if you got EAD and AP; then your two major hurdles are through.. right ?
ReplyDeleteEAD relieves you off employer dependency and AP relieves you off the vias stamping hastle.. of course, its always good to have the GC in hand, which might have its own advantages; but please correct me if any of my understanding is wrong.
My brain says Sep 2010 , my heart says Jan 2011... Lets see
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteFrom Demand Data other things that can be deduced are
1)
For EB3 India from last demand data to this numbers has
reduced by 850. Out of these only 225 are reduced from PD 2002 and other 625
cases are from later PD. This suggests that EB3 to EB2 Porting is happening but
there is no rumpus about it because of huge movement for EB2-India & China.
2)
EB3-ROW-M-P has consumed atleast 2285 visa since last
month, though numbers look less than total visas available we know constantly
cases for later PD are added to the inventory.
3)
It seems that there atleast 35 CP cases from January
2010 to January 2012, who has received notices from NVC to pay fees and
currently eligible. We will know soon what is cooking in Mr. O’s mind.
bitch of son
ReplyDeletewhat i should do when pd become current?
ReplyDeleteApril Visa Bulletin Out
ReplyDelete-----No Moment for EB2 India & Chinna
Don't see it..Where did you see it ?
ReplyDeletecan you post the link to your source sunkireddy01 OR are you guessing ?
ReplyDeleteYou have to call this number - (202) 663-1541. Right now all circuits are busy. It took me some time to get through it. What he is saying si correct. Please see update on the News Scroller on dates.
ReplyDeleteLets wait for official bulletin to release but recording suggested no movement for EB2-IC and 08Apr06 for EB3-ROW-M-P.
ReplyDeleteapril 8, 2006 for eb3-row/mexico/phils. - still good.
ReplyDeleteHere are exact dates
ReplyDeleteFB1 ROW - 1Apr 05
FB2A ROW- 8Oct 09
FB2B ROW 15 Jan 04
FB3 ROW 15 Feb 02
EB1 Current
EB2 ROW Current OTHERS – 01 May 10
EB3 ROW-M-P 08 Apr 06 China-1Mar05 India- 01Sep02
EB4 Current
EB5 Current
the bulletin isn't out.. but somebody already updated the wiki tracking page. i guess based on the voice recording you mentioned
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priority_date
i called that number; its just ringing.
---
one qq based on this scenario CM:-
q1>Can you confirm on my below assumption, which i mentioned in one of my comment yesterday
"EAD relieves you off employer dependency and AP relieves you off the vias stamping hastle.. "
q2> Since april bulletin was first bulletin of 3rd quarter and assuming Mr. O thought he moved the dates by a good amount of 2.8 yrs since the annual quota opened up in Oct 2011.
typically there is some movement in first bulletin of 4th quarter i.e. month of July. But do you think the 2.8 yr movement would consume the annual quota + spill over quota for EB2 India; based on your educated guess or would there be any movement scope OR is it a long wait till Oct 2012 again?
can we expect any movement (1-2 months), in the 3rd quarter bulletins ?
Please guide.
thanks
the bulletin isn't out.. but somebody already updated the wiki
ReplyDeletetracking page. i guess based on the voice recording you mentioned
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...
i called that number; its just ringing.---one qq based on this scenario CM:-q1>Can you confirm on my below assumption, which i mentioned in one of my comment yesterday"EAD relieves you off employer dependency and AP relieves you off the vias stamping hastle.. "
q2> Since april bulletin was first bulletin of 3rd quarter and
assuming Mr. O thought he moved the dates by a good amount of 2.8 yrs
since the annual quota opened up in Oct 2011; could there be anymore possible movement till Oct 2012?
typically there is
some movement in first bulletin of 4th quarter i.e. month of July, for any spillover quota. But
do you think the 2.8 yr movement would consume the annual quota + spill
over quota for EB2 India; based on your educated guess?
OR
would there be
any movement scope OR is it a long wait till Oct 2012 again?
can we expect any movement (1-2 months), in the leftover 3rd quarter bulletins ?
Please guide. thanks
q1> Kumar you are right. For you to use EAD you have to be with your employer for atleast 180 days after filing.
ReplyDeleteq2> Possible if will ONLY happen could be in August-Sep 2012 to use some visas for CP cases. 35 CP cases per current demand data are too less to use any visas. Based on number of application they have or will receive upto March VB, demand shuold be enough for this year and there should not be any movement until FY 2013. It is going downhill from here. Lets see what notes has Mr. O. left for this visa bulletin.
My(EB2I) PD is Oct 2009 ,I have filed in Feb 2012.
ReplyDeleteWhen can I expect the GC?
Thanks in advance for your time.
Mr CM, are you sure the above said dates are valid?
ReplyDeleteRefer below link: http://murthy.com/visadate.html
http://allott.com/visa-bulletins/february-2012-visa-bulletin.pdf
The Department of State has available a recorded message with visa availability information that can be heard at 202.663.1541. This recording will be updated in the middle of each month with information on cutoff dates for the following month.
Thanks in advance
just for a blink of hope CM, the bulletin is not yet published though. its been a few hours since the voicemail thing you mentioned below.
ReplyDeleteDo you think Mr. O still pondering on dates ?
OR is this just a usual logistics delay to put the date values in the pdf file and upload it to the bulletin site ?
Kumar, the voice recording is official. It is the Visa Bulletin line that is mentioned in every visa bulletin.
ReplyDeleteSorry, tough luck this time!
Kumar M, I feel your pain and I so wish you were right. My own PD is in second week of May 2010.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately the phone numer that CM has provided belongs to the Department of State so the information is accurate and will not change.
Here is Official Bulletin -
ReplyDeletehttp://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_April2012.pdf
Interesting Commnet on EB4-China -
ReplyDeleteCHINA-MAINLAND BORN FAMILY FOURTH PREFERENCEIn recent months we have been experiencing very heavy applicant demand in the China-mainland born Family Fourth preference category. Based on the current rate of demand, it is likely that future movement of this cut-off date will slow and possibly stop at some point in the near future. This action will be taken in an effort to keep issuances within the annual numerical limits.
Thank you CM. I was just going to post the link. I am grateful to you for sharing your knowledge. I realize that it is much too early for next month's prediction but can you give any hint from the document about what may happen in May bulletin?
ReplyDeletethanks for ending it CM. will get back to work..
ReplyDeleteThanks CM.I don't think there will be a movement till October 2012.Am I correct?
ReplyDeletehttp://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_April2012.pdf
ReplyDeleteApril Bulletin is out but in an unofficial manner. Check the following link
ReplyDeletehttp://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_April2012.pdf
Me and my husband work at different cities so we got our Finger print at our respective cities. Is it okay to finish our finger prints at differnt cities. Does it delay the 485 approval process? If you think it would delay the approval process, What should we do? Can we chnage our Finger print to one location if so, how can we do that. CAn you please tell me. It would be great help.
ReplyDeleteThank You
Any chance of Green card Calculator being updated ? Based on this data:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
CM,
ReplyDeleteCan wife on EAD through husband, file for I-140 through her employer?
Please let me know coz nobody seems to know the answer to this.
End of 2016
ReplyDeleteI agree with the guest below. You might become current later this year in Dec or early January.
ReplyDeleteWith respect to recent news it looks like HR 3012 and other concerning bills are close to dead until Sen Grassley changes his mind.. As of now I will not worry about HR 3012.
ReplyDeleteYou should be current in June Visa Bulletin.
ReplyDeleteI really doubt it but you may want to contact good attorney. FTJ child derivative can be eligible as long as he meets the CSPA requirement.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your post.
ReplyDeleteHi CM,
ReplyDeleteAny prediction for May 2012 visa bulletin? Thanks
IS IT ALLOWED TO USE THE EB-3 VISA IF JOB OFFER FOR NURSE IS IN GUAM?THANKS.pls enlighten!
ReplyDeleteCM,
ReplyDeleteI just read this... Retrogression to Aug 2007 ... Can this be true ?
http://immigrate2usa.blogspot.com/
03/16/2012: Potential Indian/Chinese EB-2 Visa Cut-Off Date Retrogression Alert in May or June 2012
ReplyDeleteThis reporter already predicted and alerted in reporting April Visa Bulletin, but AILA has just reported that Mr. Oppenheim disclosed on March 16, 2012, at the AILA Midwest Regional Conference in Chicago, that the EB-2 cut-off dates for India and China are likely to move backward to around August 2007, beginning from May or June 2012 Visa Bulletin. This information is indeed consistent with his earlier prediction in the Visa Bulltin. Once it retrogresses, it will add a tremendous pressure and stress on high-tech and R&D industries that need highly skilled professional foreign workers. It can impact the country's immigration in one of two ways or both ways. One is the pressure on the Senate to act on the pending H.R. 3012. The other is turning of a story what has been taken as a joke into the reality: On the ship consulting businesses off the territorial sea of the nation. Read on.
Yes this was bound to happen when dates moved more than what could be explained from yearly available quota and spillovers. This is something Mr CO has done with Family Based Category - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/12/eb2-ic-visa-bulletin-movements-fy-2012.html
ReplyDeleteBut do not worry we will be back to July 2008 or more in September 2012 - December 2012 time frame. For now I am not surprised by retrogression level but my personal POV would be to wait until July-August 2012 to do this after making informed decision because numbers looks arbitary so far. Once dates will move to August 2007 it will start moving again each month from September until we will be around June July 2008 in December. We will know with time. Those who will be lucky to receive green card next month should be thankful.
I remember similar thing happened in 2007 where two acquaintance with EB3-I PD of 2005 got green card in July and other few EB2-PD 2005 were waiting until 2009. That is the irony of USCIS and how it handles low hanging fruits. I do not want to open can of worms but if possible who are current can pressure Senators to expedite their applications.
When you will post your prediction for MAY 2012 visa bulletin?can't wait to see it.
ReplyDeleteCM,
ReplyDeleteCM,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your predictions about the May 2012 vb especially the Eb3 ROW? Thanks
Hi CM,
ReplyDeleteWhy will the dates start moving from Aug 2007 in September 2012 or Q1 2013. Is there any reason why USCIS like in the past cannot wait until Q4 2013 to start moving forward again.
Thanks
Murali
Hi Visahal,
ReplyDeleteThis might help you http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=a294b16dedc0f210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=aa290a5659083210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD
Hi CM, my PD is march 2008, if I miss the boat now i.e. before retrogression when can I realistically hope to have my GC
ReplyDeleteNice CM Very much accurate :)
ReplyDeleteWhat happen to FB2b category CM why it stall for this months bulletin, what would be the movement for the next few bulletin? Thanks
ReplyDeletePrediction for MAY 2012 visa bulletin please
ReplyDeletewhat is the prediction for may visa bulletin CM?
ReplyDeleteMy PD is July 2007 for EB3-ROW. I'm getting married in the fall to a US Citizen so before I look to more fees for an application through marriage, what would the expected timeline for a 7/07 PD be?
ReplyDelete