EB2 - ROW-Mexico-Philippines Visa Demand FY 2011 - Based on PERM Data

We have analyzed the PERM data for FY 2011 Q1 and Q2, and FY 2010 Q4 (Aug-Sep) for EB2-ROW-M-P to ballpark current visa demand for this category. Goal behind this was to see if there is a possibility that some spillover from EB1 would be consumed by EB2-ROW before it will come to retrogressed EB2 countries. The reason behind using the FY 2010 month of August and September for the analysis was to consider the only demand from last fiscal year that is not considered in the September bulletin.. Please note that September bulletin is usually released in first week of August and hence any demand later than that is not considered during that bulletin. Though some of the cases are processed in the same fiscal year but gap time between PERM approval and submission of concurrent I-485/I-140 is minimum one month. So there is less likelihood that this demand was ever seen in FY 2010. We expect that all this demand was seen early this fiscal year.

Again to segregate PERM data in EB3 and EB2, 'minimum wage required' of less than $55000 was used as a criteria. Please note minimum wage required is different than wage offered. Any PERMs that would require wages above $55,000 were considered EB2. Though there is some error to this assumption, but this should give you rough idea about fair distribution. We understand that minimum wages required differs from state to state, and in some cases wages offered at universities and higher education institutes are lower but job requirements still qualifies you to EB2 category. All these errors in our assumptions for considering EB3s with higher minimum salary into our EB2 criteria and not considering EB2s from higher education institutes due to lower salary will offset each other. In order to complete an informed analysis, it was necessary to make some kind of assumptions.

That said, data was used to calculate total demand based on primary and dependents. On average family size used was 1.75. Further, this data was extrapolated for rest of the fiscal year only based on high demand seen in February and March. Data was extrapolated until July 2011 (reason same as explained before about release of September visa bulletin in first week of August).

What does this mean for EB2-ROW-M-P
This means PD dates for EB2-ROW-M-P will reman current for remaning fiscal year. For EB2-ROW if demand will pick up more than predicted, they can always use unused visa numebrs from EB1 category.

What does this mean for EB2-IC?
Expected EB2-ROW-M-P demand for current fiscal year will be around 28,599 +/- 1,000. Current fiscal year quota for EB2-ROW-M-P is around 34,400. Expected spillover is around 5000-7000 from EB2-ROW-M-P. Any increase in demand for EB2-ROW alone means consumption of some EB1 category unused visa numbers. EB2-M-P will yield atleast 2800 unused visas.

EB2-ROW-M-P Demand absed on PERM data

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