EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012? - (Post Sep VB)

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?

What movement do we expect for EB2-IC in FY 2012? 

Since now we know that EB2-India and China are stuck at 15^th April 2007 for this fiscal year, we can try and estimate what we can expect for this category in FY 2012.

Eb2-India and China still need 8000 more visas for EB2-IC to cross PD 15 August 2007. This is calculated plainly from the currently released visible demand data, without including 'People Who Missed the Boat" (PWMBs) during July 2007. Expected PWMB until 15 August 2007 cut-off date from September Visa bulletin cut-off date of 15 April 2007 are 8302. We firmly believe any PWMBs before July visa bulletin cut-off date of 08 March 2007 have good chance to get approved by September 30 or even in October, where USCIS usually tend to use some unused visa numbers from the last fiscal year.

So out of total PWMBs of 8,302 for EB2-IC until 15 August 2007, even if we assume that due to the economic recession and other unforeseen reasons, only 50% are eligible to pursue this, numbers still come out to be 4,151. So to sum up, without even crossing EB2-IC PD of July 2007, for next fiscal year EB2-IC has demand of 8,000 + 4,151 = 12,151.

Now we know as and when these PWMBs will become current and file for I-485 in order to become documentarily qualified, by that time we will be in Q2 or beyond for FY 2012. Based on annual limits and not considering any PWMBs, expected movement for EB2-IC is as tabulated below. This is based on no porting and no PWMBs. 

For EB2-India, movement will be very small or expect no movement for first quarter (Q1) and then in Q2 we can expect 1 week movement each month until DOS will try to intake extra inventory in Q3. EB2-China will progress much quicker than EB2-India. For EB2-China we can expect 4 weeks in Q1 and Q2 each, until DOS will allocate any extra movement to intake inventory for spillover season.

EB3-EB2 Porting and PWMBs before 15^th April 2007

Above tabulated estimation can all change, especially for EB2-India, if individuals in EB3 category with PD before 15 April 2007 will start porting. We expect EB3 to EB2 porting for FY 2012  will be at same level as FY 2011. Expected numbers should not be more than 2,800. Other than these porting numbers we should also consider calculated PWMBs before 15^th April 2007, which are 1,958. Again assuming that out of these only 50% are still eligible, this number comes out to be around 979. Out of these we expect 50% or more will use visa numbers from FY 2011 quota. So rollover backlog to FY 2012 will be 488.

So EB3 to EB2 Porting and PWMBs before 15 April 2007 that would be counted towards FY 2012 becomes 2,800 + 488 = 3,288. Of course, porting demand will be realized slowly and hence we can expect little but small movement for EB2- India. Movement depends on PWMB rollover and new porting demand. EB2-China should continue to move as outlined above as we expect no porting, and we expect FY 2011 rollover PWMB demand to be around 150 or less.

What will be the total demand for FY 2012 and how much spillover is required to cross 2007?

So now going back to total demand for FY 2012 as calculated above up to 15 August 2007 and adding demand for PWMBs up to cut-off at that time (4,151- 2,803 = 1,351) assuming dates around 01 June 2007), porting and rollover PWMBs and removing annual limit, (5600) total demand required to cross PD July 2007 (see large font numbers above)

8,000 +1,351 + 3,288 + 150 – 5,600 = 7,189

Total demand of 7,189 will be enough to keep DOS from worrying about taking any new inventory until April 2012. Once year will progress into early Q3, just like this year DOS may start looking into half yearly projected demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW. If at this point, annual visa limit for the EB2-IC (or any of the country) is exhausted due to above stated demand, DOS will start looking into using any available unused visa numbers. Although, DOS/USCIS are constrained to use only 30% of these numbers in first three quarters (but they made exception this year), this move would totally depend upon number of visas available.

If DOS feel there is more than 7189 unused visa numbers that they can expect based on past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements (quoted from our previous article), they will plan on taking extra inventory to make I-485 cases documentarily qualified for rest of the fiscal year.  Usually past trend has been around 3000 visa numbers each month for EB2-IC. 

So if expected spillover from half-yearly unused number is 10,000, they will try to intake for 18,000 or less, thus EB2-IC movement will be based on 18,000 – 7,189 = 10,811, thus crossing only 4-5 months from July 2007 at most at first trial and error. If after this movement, in case DOS would see change in demand pattern then they can try to retrogress dates or progress dates in July 2012 (Q4). Next fiscal year ,spillovers can either be used on a quarterly basis or we can expect some big movement in April 2012 and then second recalibration in July 2012.

If first trial and error would cause dates to move until PD December 2007 in early Q3 of FY2012; based on our estimation it will bring 11,664 EB2-I applications; 2,109 more EB2-C application; and  2803 new PWMBs post 01 June 2007 that were not considered above. These EB2-IC numbers comes from PERM data after applying I-140 conversion factor of 78%. After applying this, if we consider most optimistically due to economic recession or other unforeseen reason only 75% are eligible to pursue this anymore, total demand from Aug 2007 until December 2007 becomes  – (0.75 x (11664+2109)) +2803 = 11912 + 2803 = 14715.

Based on above 18,000 spillovers, 10,811 left after July 2007 would only take EB2-India and China to end of November 2007, and dates could retrogress from December 2007 in July 2012 . If we expect next year’s spillover will be same as this FY 2011 (very unlikely), and we will receive 25000 unused visa numbers, EB2-IC in FY 2012 will end up around January 2008. In reality dates can be anywhere between December 2007 to January 2008 for FY 2012.

It should be noted in above scenario I-140 to I-485 conversion is assumed 75% and PWMBs are assumed 50% eligible.

Now final question is if dates will retrogress or move forward after first huge movement in early Q3 for next fiscal year?

We are really hoping that DOS/USCIS should use quarterly spillover than half yearly spillover for next fiscal year. But Mr. Oppenheim being conservative in nature will move dates only in early Q3 around April 2012 and then recalibrate in July 2012. Dates retrogressing or moving forward will totally depend upon EB1 and EB2-ROW demand.

Do we expect retrogression in Q1 for EB2-I?

No, we do not expect retrogression for EB2-I in Q1 FY 2012. In case if that will happen, it will not be more than a month. Chances are very less.