Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label EB3 to EB2 Porting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EB3 to EB2 Porting. Show all posts

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Interfiling I-485 after Sucessfully Porting from EB3 to EB2

Posted On Saturday, April 23, 2011 by Rav 17 comments

This post explains the current procedure for interfiling I-485 once you have successfully ported your Priority Date from previously approved I-140 and your old I-485 is still pending with USCIS.

Procedure to Transfer Pending I-1485 From Current Approved Underlying I-140 Petition to New I-140 Petition

This posting involves aliens who are waiting for the I-485 applications where the underlying I-140 petition was approved but due to retrogression, I-485 cannot be approved. Most of these cases are EB-3 cases. When the same alien obtains an EB-2 labor certification approval through the same employer or a different employer and the visa number is available for the EB-2 for him or her, he should be eligible for filing another I-485 application based on the visa number available EB-2 I-140 petition. This can be achieved either by concurrent I-140/I-485 filing or if the new EB-2 I-140 has already been approved, by filing of stand-alone I-485 application. However, in the foregoing situation, the Pearson Memo of 2000 allows the alien to transfer the pending I-485 application from the existing underlying approved I-140 petition to a new EB-2 I-140 petition such that the alien does not have to file another I-485 application to use the second I-140 petition. This is called "Interfiling".


Interfiling Procedure

For this to happen successfully, two conditions must be met:

(1) The existing underlying I-140 petition (most likely EB-3) must have been approved before the I-485 transfer is requested.

(2) Secondly, the visa number must be "current" for the new I-140 petition (most likely EB-2) before the I-485 transfer is requested. As long as the PD is current, the pending I-485 application that suffer from the visa number retrogression can be transferred to the next I-140 petition.

According to the USCIS, people should take the following procedure to request such transfer of pending I-485 application from one I-140 petition to another I-140 petition:

  • Request for Transfer of Pending I-485 Application to a Newly Filed I-140 Petition That Has Priority Date Current: In this situation, he/she is filing a new I-140 petition (probably EB-2 with visa number "current") with the agency to transfer the pending I-485 application and attach it to the new I-140 petition. The USCIS states that if he/she files such new I-140 petition, he/she should use "large, bold print in the cover letter or with a separate, brightly colored cover page and notation 'Inter-file I-140 with Pending I-485' and include the Receipt/File Number of Pending I-485 Application, both on the Envelope and Cover Letter."
  • Request for Transfer of Pending I-485 Application to Already Approved New I-140 (most likely EB-2 category): USCIS asks to print the cover sheet on brightly colored paper, and submitting it with a cover letter providing the following Information:
  • Name of 485 applicant
  • Name of I-140 petitioner (employer)
  • I-485 Receipt Number
  • "A" Number of the 485 applicant
  • Prior I-140 petition (1) Receipt Number, (2) Filing Date, and (3) Approval Date+ New I-140 to be inter-filed
  • Statement requesting new I-140 be inter-filed with the pending I-485 application.
These procedures may be particularly helpful to individuals whose has recently ported from EB3 to EB2 and would like to send an interfile letter on their own to transfer pending I-485 application to newly approved I-140 cases.


Sunday, April 17, 2011

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

Posted On Sunday, April 17, 2011 by Rav 17 comments



gcw07 said...

"Excellent analysis done by you. I have become a big fan of your blogs. All I understand that DoS is afraid of heavy porting EB3 India to EB2 India. Do you have any estimation for EB3 India to EB2 India porting? I have seen your dashboard and how to apply the dashboard sample to real world data?"

EB3 to EB2 Porting Poll Results

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received, at most by +/- 1%. So we feel safe to assume that sample size represents entire population of EB3 to EB2 porting applicants. We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers.


Converting EB3 to EB2 Porting Results to Real World Data
There are number of ways that we can use the dashboard data and convert it into real-world data. One way to do it is to use new PERMs received during last quarter of fiscal year 2010 and first two quarters of FY 2011 for EB2-I and convert it into real world data assuming percentage for new cases and refiled cases. There are lot of unknowns in this approach and I do not feel comfortable using this approach.

Simple calculation is just based on assumption that no quarterly spillover is used until today (except to move EB2-I for May visa bulletin) and DOS is waiting to use majority of available spillover during the last quarter excluding few numbers that will be used for May and June visa bulletin to gauge EB3 to EB2 upgrade demand. Since we know that DOS has utilized total annual limit for EB2 India due to continuous incoming EB3 to EB2 upgrade demand, we think that atleast 2800 visa numbers is used to satisfy this demand.

Assuming that these 2800 numbers are porting numbers for first 6 months (Oct-Mar) of the fiscal year 2011 (May visa bulletin released first week of April), we can assume that this will convert into 5600 porting application for full fiscal year 2011 for individuals with PD before 08 May 2006. This includes primary applicants + beneficiary applicants. We know on an average a primary applicant will use 2.5 visa numbers.

Primary applicants with PD before 08 May 2006 = 5600/2.5 = 2240


Based on poll results percentage of applicants that are porting with PD before 08 May 2006 is equal to


Percentage of PD (2002 + 2003 + 2004 + 2005) + Percentage of PD April 2006 (08 May 2006)
= 7+9+9+9+ (19 * 4/12)
= 40.33 %


Total Primary EB3 to EB2 porting applicants for the fiscal year 2011 (PD 2002-PD 2011)


40.33% of Total Primary applicants = Primary applicants with PD before 08 May 2006

40.33% of Total Primary applicants = 2240

Total Primary applicants for fiscal year 2011 = 5554



Total Primary + Dependent EB3 to EB2 porting applicants for the fiscal year 2011 (PD 2002-PD 2011)


Assuming on an average a family member will use 2.5 visa numbers,
Total Primary + Dependents applicants for fiscal year 2011 = 5554 * 2.5 = 13885



EB3 to EB2 Porting for FY 2011


Before PD 08 May 2006 = 40.33% of 13885 = 5600
Beyond 08 May 2006 and before PD 31 December 2006 = 8/12* 19 % of 13885 = 1759
Beyond 31 Dec 2006 and before PD 01 July 2007 = 7/12* 15 % of 13885 = 1215
Beyond 01 July 2007 and before PD 31 Dec 2007 = 5/12* 15 % of 13885 = 868
and so on .......



Comparing data to "EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part II" based on Google Analytics


Above calculations matches very well with our data based on Google analytics. We are convinced that the EB3 to EB2 porting numbers are reasonably high as dates will move from July 2006 to July 2007. It will at least bring more 3000 porting applications (primary + dependents) to current porting demand.


EB3 to EB2 Porting - ROW - M-P
"gcw07 said... All your blogs are well analyzed, well researched and well written. Appreciate all your blogs and the contents, which are informative and convincing the readers.I differ from your view on concerns/ conclusions.

From DoS angle, increase in upgrades (EB3 to EB2 portings) include all countries (ROW includes M & P), while many perceive the topic as 'India' specific. I know many M & P guys and gals who ported to EB2. The spillover from EB2 ROW to EB2 India & China would be less compared to last year"
I totally agree that EB3 to EB2 porting is happening for ROW-M-P as well, but numbers seems less and it would not affect spillover by large amount (unless you can point me to some trackitt data which suggests otherwise). Porting numbers could be around 500, and in case it is more than that it would be counted towards EB2-ROW demand. We are assuming at least 8000-9000 number as spillover, 500-1000 less visa numbers are so few that it can be ignored as 'noise'. I do not think that DOS is worried about EB3 to EB2 upgrades from ROW-M-P. Please see excerpts from May visa bulletin. It clearly indicates they are worried about movement of EB2 - IC due to upgrade demand. End of the day movement is based on available spillover after porting (regardless of India, China or ROW), thus numbers cannot be that high. EB2-I movement after receiving EB1 spillover indicates that EB2-ROW is not consuming any spillover and thus demand is low. For sure some spillover is expected from them. I would not worry about few hundred or thousand of EB3 ROW upgrades as of now. How this will change in coming years would be interesting to see.

While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries.

"INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences."


Saturday, April 9, 2011

EB2 India and China FY 2011 Movement - Analysis based on May Visa Bulletin

Posted On Saturday, April 09, 2011 by Rav 48 comments


So May visa bulletin has been released and it brought disappointment to Indian and Chinese national under EB-2 Category. There were lot of hype and emotion around immigrant community that we would see a significant movement for EB2-IC in May Visa Bulletin due to availability of 12,000 unused visa numbers from EB-1 category (which is still available by the way). Here we would like to have a very critical analysis of the entire situation, statements made in Visa Bulletin, why we did not see ample movement in May visa bulletin, what we expect in coming bulletin, how this would change the predictions for EB2-IC over the course of year and of course, EB3-EB2 porting.

Why dates did not move to predicted December 2006 cut-off for EB2-IC?
Our predictions were based on availability of 12,000 unused visa numbers from EB1 category and half yearly EB2-ROW , EB4 and EB5 demand. Movement in May visa bulletin clearly suggests that former were not completely used and it is too early to use latter when we are just near early April, far from spillover season which usually commence in last quarter of fiscal year. In addition to this, DOS is worried about unknown demand from EB3 to EB2 upgrades. Before going into further detail, let's analyze Section "VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS" in detail and read through each line carefully.


Analyzing "VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS"

"Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high."

Above statement definitely bolsters the statement from Mr. Oppenhiem that EB1-demand is low and EB2-IC would at least receive 12000 visa numbers from them.

"Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)"

DOS here confirms that there are still thousands of "otherwise unused" visa number available from EB1-category but is worried about "unknown demand" from EB3 to EB2 porting which restricts them from moving the cut-off dates by bounds and leaps for EB2-IC. If you will read above quote carefully, it also suggests that the EB2-ROW demand is not high enough to consume any spillover and unused visa numbers for now would only be consumed by EB2-IC.


Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

"INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences."

Assures that there are otherwise unused numbers available from EB1 and EB2-ROW category. So we should expect some spillover from EB2-ROW. How much, is still to be seen. I would still assume at least 8000 -9000.

"Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. "

Since EB2-C has not reached it's annual limit (see below), DOS could not use available unused visa numbers to move China with EB2-India (unless it is last quarter where they have to move dates to avoid wastage of annual visa numbers) . This is one of the few reasons that entire "12000 unused visa numbers" was not used for May visa bulletin. At most EB2-I could have advanced to 01 August 2006, same PD as EB2-China. Though (INA) Section 202(a)(5) allows EB2-I to use available spillover but PD cut-off date cannot move beyond that of EB2-C PD.

"Since under INA Section 203(e) such numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability, greater number use by one country would indicate greater demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates."

As known EB2-I would receive most of the otherwise unused visa numbers from EB1 and EB2-ROW compared to EB2-C as demand and PD cut-off date for EB2-I is earlier than EB2-C.
"Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used. Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit."

DOS just bolstering or justifying their decision of moving cut-off date for EB2-I to 01 July 2006 using "otherwise unused" numbers whereas EB2-C only moved due to it's allocated 233 visa monthly limit.

"For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit."

Of all the statements, India has reached it's annual limit is most difficult to digest. We would discuss this in detail below. This could give some indication of EB3-EB2 porting numbers.

"The rate of number use under Section 202(a)(5) is continually monitored to determine whether subsequent adjustments are needed in visa availability for the oversubscribed countries. This helps assure that all available Employment preference numbers will be used, while insuring that numbers also remain available for applicants from all other countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit."

DOS want to ensure that available spillover from all employment preference (EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 and EB5) should be used for oversubscribed countries in a controlled manner but at the same time does not want to overuse the spillover for one country (India in this case), and thus ensuring that enough visa is available for applicants from other countries, which is yet to reach their per country limit (China, may be South Korea, other ROW countries).

"As mentioned earlier, the number of applicants who may be “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is unknown. As a result, the cut-off date which governs use of Section 202(a)(5) numbers has been advanced more rapidly than normal, in an attempt to ascertain the amount of “upgrade” demand in the pipeline while at the same time administering use of the available numbers. "
DOS just want to test the waters and want to ball-park the numbers for EB3 to EB2 porting before they can entirely use available spillover from other categories. It seems that so far they have just thrown otherwise unused 2800 available visa numbers from EB1 to gauge the demand for porting numbers. EB2-IC still have at least 9000 unused visa numbers from EB1-category that will be used later in year.

"This action risks a surge in demand that could adversely impact the cut-off date later in the fiscal year. However, it also limits the possibility that potential demand would not materialize and the annual limit would not be reached due to lack of cut-off date movement."
It is unclear to me if DOS is suggesting that there is a possibility of visa wastage this year due to lack of cut-off date movement (which will be terrible) or they are suggesting that this action would restrict them from wasting any visas. It is not explicitly stated and completely ambiguous to me.


Summarizing above statements and predicting movements in coming months.
"Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:

China: none to three weeks expected through July. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.

India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable. No August or September estimate is possible at this time."

Since DOS would not know any real EB2-IC demand due to EB3 to EB2 porting until May end or early week of June (demand would only start coming after 1st May 2011) , we expect no or limited movement for EB2-I until July visa bulletin. If demand would rise or surge in month of May-June due to EB3-EB2 porting, we expect movement by few weeks in July visa bulletin. Do not expect spillover to kick in until August-September in this case. In meantime EB2-C will keep on moving by a week every month based on it's annual visa allocation.

Of this entire situation, one good thing is that DOS moved dates only by two months and not by huge amount because we expect EB3 to EB2 porting to be a decent number around 1500 for folks with PD beyond 08 May 2006 and before 2007. This high demand would have overwhelmed DOS and EB2-I could have ended up seeing lesser movement for rest of the fiscal year; greater movement is still a possibility due to ONLY two months advancement. This may be a "Blessing in Disguise" after all for EB2-I.


EB3 to EB2 Porting and Annual Limit for EB2-India reached
DOS mentioned that annual limit for EB2 category for India is reached which is still little shocking. There could be two scenarios to it. Lets discuss them in detail here.

a) DOS moved dates for EB2-IC in FY 2010 to 08 May 2006 without considering or (knowing) the real demand for EB3 to EB2 porting and USCIS/DOS were later burned with number of new applications they received that were far beyond available unused visa numbers from FY 2010. So DOS continued to use visa numbers from EB2-I current fiscal year allocation to satisfy demand from previous year in addition to demand from all new EB3-EB2 porting applications post September 2011. In order to avoid retrogressing cut-off dates for EB2-I and to fulfill backlog demand, entire annual visa allocation limit for EB2-I was utilized. Thus DOS wants to be very careful for this fiscal year and would move cut-off dates in a very controlled manner so not to underestimate demand from EB3 to EB2 porting. This suggests that DOS rather be on underside for annual limit and waste few visas rather than underestimating the porting demand and consuming more than annual limit.

OR

b) EB3 to EB2 porting is really very high which is not transparent in monthly demand data due to continuous turnover. Utilizing complete annual limit for EB2-I suggests that EB3 to EB2 porting for fiscal year so far is around 3000 and this would convert into 6000 porting numbers plus addition of new EB3 to EB2 porting application with PD beyond 08 May 2006 PD for entire year. So yearly upgrade could be somewhere between 6000-7500 depending upon how and when dates will progress in coming months.

Predictions for EB2 in light of new developments

We would still like to say that in worst case scenario we are still marching towards our current worst-case scenario of 01 April 2007, which apparently could become realistic scenario due to conservative DOS approach and potential for some spillover going unused or wasted. It highly depends on how EB3 to EB2 porting demand would shake up in coming two months. A steep increase in demand would make DOS more conservative and dates reaching 01 January 2007 would be a challenge.

I still have a hunch that 01 July 2007 is a possibility as long as DOS can be little aggressive and we will see decent movement in July visa bulletin.

Again as mentioned before, dates would never become current for EB2-IC to open the gates to build huge inventory for future I-485s .DOS would always moves dates in controlled manner in forthcoming years.

Concerns - Two Fold
  • This may a bold statement but it looks like AILA is guiding DOS too much on how to advance Priority Dates than it being vice-versa. All hype of unknown high EB3 to EB2 upgrades has come from AILA. I really doubt EB3 to EB2 porting number is so high and DOS is getting heedlessly so conservative in their approach . The numbers may be high but I am still not convinced. We would know in few months.
  • The worry that if dates are not progressed enough in July- August visa bulletin, some visa numbers can go waste which otherwise could be used wisely.


Friday, March 11, 2011

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part II

Posted On Friday, March 11, 2011 by Rav 17 comments

We have completed our analysis to calculate EB3 to EB2 porting which is shared herein. Google analytics and 'EB3 to EB2 porting' poll on this website were used to crunch some numbers for yearly EB3 to EB2 porting. Please note as mentioned in my previous post, this site has three posts which could be of interest to individuals looking to port from EB3 to EB2 category.


Google Analytics

With Google Analytics, we looked at each of these topics and noted number of "unique visits" we had receive every day. Unique visits with direct traffic from Google search were ONLY considered. Please see table below to see number of visits. Any visits referred from other forums and websites were ignored. This way any error in the method to calculate EB3 to EB2 porting is offset by number of ignored visits from other sites. If we assume that only 70% of these individuals are eligible or would qualify to port their priority date, we can assume total monthly and subsequently total yearly EB3 to EB2 porting.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Polls

Result from EB3 to EB2 porting polls was further used to calculate distribution of yearly porting among different priority date based on poll results. This is an ongoing effort but so far we have received 115 votes; which is believed to be a good sample size to evaluate distribution of current EB3 to EB2 porting rate. Further breakdown is done to predict monthly porting between PD Jan 2006 and PD Dec 2007. This results will be of interest for current fiscal year when unused visa numbers will be available due to spillover and for next fiscal year especially when this demand will hit I-485 inventory or would start using annual visa numbers once date will become current for these PDs. Moving EB3 to EB2 porting is also calculated. See table below. For every primary applicant, family size is considered to be 2.25 to calculate Porting (Primary + Dependents)


Poll Results



Note: This is just one way to analyze this data. If you have any other better way please feel to comment or contact us and we can add your analysis to this site as well. Our goal is to help immigrant community.


Pageviews and Unique PageViews based on three posts used to calculate EB3 to Eb2 porting