EB2 India and China FY 2011 Movement - Analysis based on May Visa Bulletin

So May visa bulletin has been released and it brought disappointment to Indian and Chinese national under EB-2 Category. There were lot of hype and emotion around immigrant community that we would see a significant movement for EB2-IC in May Visa Bulletin due to availability of 12,000 unused visa numbers from EB-1 category (which is still available by the way). Here we would like to have a very critical analysis of the entire situation, statements made in Visa Bulletin, why we did not see ample movement in May visa bulletin, what we expect in coming bulletin, how this would change the predictions for EB2-IC over the course of year and of course, EB3-EB2 porting.

Why dates did not move to predicted December 2006 cut-off for EB2-IC?

Our predictions were based on availability of 12,000 unused visa numbers from EB1 category and half yearly EB2-ROW , EB4 and EB5 demand. Movement in May visa bulletin clearly suggests that former were not completely used and it is too early to use latter when we are just near early April, far from spillover season which usually commence in last quarter of fiscal year. In addition to this, DOS is worried about unknown demand from EB3 to EB2 upgrades. Before going into further detail, let's analyze Section "VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS" in detail and read through each line carefully.

Analyzing "VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS"

"Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high."

Above statement definitely bolsters the statement from Mr. Oppenhiem that EB1-demand is low and EB2-IC would at least receive 12000 visa numbers from them.

"Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)"

DOS here confirms that there are still thousands of "otherwise unused" visa number available from EB1-category but is worried about "unknown demand" from EB3 to EB2 porting which restricts them from moving the cut-off dates by bounds and leaps for EB2-IC. If you will read above quote carefully, it also suggests that the EB2-ROW demand is not high enough to consume any spillover and unused visa numbers for now would only be consumed by EB2-IC.

Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

"INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences."

Assures that there are otherwise unused numbers available from EB1 and EB2-ROW category. So we should expect some spillover from EB2-ROW. How much, is still to be seen. I would still assume at least 8000 -9000.

"Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. "

Since EB2-C has not reached it's annual limit (see below), DOS could not use available unused visa numbers to move China with EB2-India (unless it is last quarter where they have to move dates to avoid wastage of annual visa numbers) . This is one of the few reasons that entire "12000 unused visa numbers" was not used for May visa bulletin. At most EB2-I could have advanced to 01 August 2006, same PD as EB2-China. Though (INA) Section 202(a)(5) allows EB2-I to use available spillover but PD cut-off date cannot move beyond that of EB2-C PD.

"Since under INA Section 203(e) such numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability, greater number use by one country would indicate greater demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates."

As known EB2-I would receive most of the otherwise unused visa numbers from EB1 and EB2-ROW compared to EB2-C as demand and PD cut-off date for EB2-I is earlier than EB2-C.

"Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used. Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit."

DOS just bolstering or justifying their decision of moving cut-off date for EB2-I to 01 July 2006 using "otherwise unused" numbers whereas EB2-C only moved due to it's allocated 233 visa monthly limit.

"For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit."

Of all the statements, India has reached it's annual limit is most difficult to digest. We would discuss this in detail below. This could give some indication of EB3-EB2 porting numbers.

"The rate of number use under Section 202(a)(5) is continually monitored to determine whether subsequent adjustments are needed in visa availability for the oversubscribed countries. This helps assure that all available Employment preference numbers will be used, while insuring that numbers also remain available for applicants from all other countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit."

DOS want to ensure that available spillover from all employment preference (EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 and EB5) should be used for oversubscribed countries in a controlled manner but at the same time does not want to overuse the spillover for one country (India in this case), and thus ensuring that enough visa is available for applicants from other countries, which is yet to reach their per country limit (China, may be South Korea, other ROW countries).

"As mentioned earlier, the number of applicants who may be “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is unknown. As a result, the cut-off date which governs use of Section 202(a)(5) numbers has been advanced more rapidly than normal, in an attempt to ascertain the amount of “upgrade” demand in the pipeline while at the same time administering use of the available numbers. "

DOS just want to test the waters and want to ball-park the numbers for EB3 to EB2 porting before they can entirely use available spillover from other categories. It seems that so far they have just thrown otherwise unused 2800 available visa numbers from EB1 to gauge the demand for porting numbers. EB2-IC still have at least 9000 unused visa numbers from EB1-category that will be used later in year.

"This action risks a surge in demand that could adversely impact the cut-off date later in the fiscal year. However, it also limits the possibility that potential demand would not materialize and the annual limit would not be reached due to lack of cut-off date movement."

It is unclear to me if DOS is suggesting that there is a possibility of visa wastage this year due to lack of cut-off date movement (which will be terrible) or they are suggesting that this action would restrict them from wasting any visas. It is not explicitly stated and completely ambiguous to me.

Summarizing above statements and predicting movements in coming months.

"Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:

China: none to three weeks expected through July. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.

India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable. No August or September estimate is possible at this time."

Since DOS would not know any real EB2-IC demand due to EB3 to EB2 porting until May end or early week of June (demand would only start coming after 1st May 2011) , we expect no or limited movement for EB2-I until July visa bulletin. If demand would rise or surge in month of May-June due to EB3-EB2 porting, we expect movement by few weeks in July visa bulletin. Do not expect spillover to kick in until August-September in this case. In meantime EB2-C will keep on moving by a week every month based on it's annual visa allocation.

Of this entire situation, one good thing is that DOS moved dates only by two months and not by huge amount because we expect EB3 to EB2 porting to be a decent number around 1500 for folks with PD beyond 08 May 2006 and before 2007. This high demand would have overwhelmed DOS and EB2-I could have ended up seeing lesser movement for rest of the fiscal year; greater movement is still a possibility due to ONLY two months advancement. This may be a "Blessing in Disguise" after all for EB2-I.

EB3 to EB2 Porting and Annual Limit for EB2-India reached
DOS mentioned that annual limit for EB2 category for India is reached which is still little shocking. There could be two scenarios to it. Lets discuss them in detail here.

a) DOS moved dates for EB2-IC in FY 2010 to 08 May 2006 without considering or (knowing) the real demand for EB3 to EB2 porting and USCIS/DOS were later burned with number of new applications they received that were far beyond available unused visa numbers from FY 2010. So DOS continued to use visa numbers from EB2-I current fiscal year allocation to satisfy demand from previous year in addition to demand from all new EB3-EB2 porting applications post September 2011. In order to avoid retrogressing cut-off dates for EB2-I and to fulfill backlog demand, entire annual visa allocation limit for EB2-I was utilized. Thus DOS wants to be very careful for this fiscal year and would move cut-off dates in a very controlled manner so not to underestimate demand from EB3 to EB2 porting. This suggests that DOS rather be on underside for annual limit and waste few visas rather than underestimating the porting demand and consuming more than annual limit.

OR

b) EB3 to EB2 porting is really very high which is not transparent in monthly demand data due to continuous turnover. Utilizing complete annual limit for EB2-I suggests that EB3 to EB2 porting for fiscal year so far is around 3000 and this would convert into 6000 porting numbers plus addition of new EB3 to EB2 porting application with PD beyond 08 May 2006 PD for entire year. So yearly upgrade could be somewhere between 6000-7500 depending upon how and when dates will progress in coming months.

Predictions for EB2 in light of new developments

We would still like to say that in worst case scenario we are still marching towards our current worst-case scenario of 01 April 2007, which apparently could become realistic scenario due to conservative DOS approach and potential for some spillover going unused or wasted. It highly depends on how EB3 to EB2 porting demand would shake up in coming two months. A steep increase in demand would make DOS more conservative and dates reaching 01 January 2007 would be a challenge.

I still have a hunch that 01 July 2007 is a possibility as long as DOS can be little aggressive and we will see decent movement in July visa bulletin.

Again as mentioned before, dates would never become current for EB2-IC to open the gates to build huge inventory for future I-485s .DOS would always moves dates in controlled manner in forthcoming years.

Concerns - Two Fold

• This may a bold statement but it looks like AILA is guiding DOS too much on how to advance Priority Dates than it being vice-versa. All hype of unknown high EB3 to EB2 upgrades has come from AILA. I really doubt EB3 to EB2 porting number is so high and DOS is getting heedlessly so conservative in their approach . The numbers may be high but I am still not convinced. We would know in few months.
  

• The worry that if dates are not progressed enough in July- August visa bulletin, some visa numbers can go waste which otherwise could be used wisely.

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