Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2011 - Employment Based Green Card

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date movement for Fiscal Year 2011. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. visa statistics recently released for CY 2010, PERM data published by DOL for CY 2010, latest trend on Trackitt for EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Dates are predicted based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2011. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is predicted.

New Predictions - Last Updated - 01 May 2011

We have added new sections for PWMB and Porting under calculation. Please use our reference mentioned in the PWMB section to calculate total visa based on August visa bulletin cut-off date. We should only consider demand due to porting and PWMB upto August visa bulletin cut-off date for predicting EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. Any demand after August visa bulletin cut off date will not affect EB2-IC movement for this fiscal year. Please assume "August visa bulletin" cut-off date and calculate PWMB and assume Porting numbers based on our calculations. These field are User ENTERED only.

Our worst-case scenario is based on 28,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 30,600. For our worst case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin to reach cut-off date of 1st November 2006. As per these assumptions EB2-IC PD dates would hardly reach 01 January 2007.

Our realistic scenario is based on 24,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 28,600. For our realistic case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin to reach cut-off date of 1st November 2006. In this case, EB2-IC PD dates would reach 08 March 2007.

Our optimistic scenario is based on 20,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 26,600. For our optimistic case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin has to reach cut-off date of 1st January 2007. This bring more porting numbers. In this case, EB2-IC PD dates would reach 01 June 2007.

All these assumptions is based on receiving atleast 5974 unused visa numbers from EB5. Any huge reduction in number will make dates moving difficult. In this cases dates will hardly cross December 2006.

This is it from us until August visa bulletin. Good Luck.

New Predictions - Last Updated - 04 April 2011

Based on currently released statement by Mr. Oppenheim on 12,000 available unused visa numbers from EB1 category to EB2 for FY 2011, we are revising our Predictions for EB2 Category for FY 2011. We are reporting worst-case, realistic and optimistic scenarios for our predictions.

Realistic prediction (01 July 2007) is based on availability of atleast 16,000 unused visa numbers from EB-1 category. We are convinced that EB3-EB2 porting number predictions for individuals with PD before 08 May 06 is not more than 4500. We will stick to our predictions for EB2-ROW, EB4 and EB5 consumption unless we see different trend for rest of the year. Based on all these predictions, EB2-IC dates will progress to 1st July 2007 for FY 2011.

Worst-case (01 April 2007) would be seen only if 12000 unused visa numbers are available from EB1-category, and EB3-EB2 porting numbers would rise to 6000 due to introduction of new porting cases as and when dates would become current for post 08 May 2006 PD; especially if we see huge movement for May visa bulletin. This would give USCIS enough time to consider addition of these new petitions to count them towards available spillover. This jump of 1500 visa numbers to porting would also be used to offset addition of application from petitioners who had originally missed the boat during July 2007 fiasco.

Optimistic movement (01 October 2007) would be seen if EB1-category would yield 20,000 unused visa numbers. We do not predict dates to become current for everyone during FY 2011. If USCIS would not have enough buffer to predict movements for EB2-IC f post July 2007 for FY 2012, dates might move beyond October 2007 by 5-6 months during first quarter of FY 2012.

Predictions that were as of 03 Feb 2011

There are good chances that the dates for EB2-India and China would progress to 1st January 2007 as long as we would see EB-1 demand to be reasonable (around 34,000) and EB3-EB2 porting could stick to assumptions made in the calculations below. Any lower demand for EB-1 (around 30,000) in FY 2011 would take predictions to optimistic level (22nd March, 2007) as long as EB3-EB2 porting could hold it's ground.

In any case, dates are less likely to progress beyond 22nd March, 2007. Reason behind this assumpion is that any EB-1 demand below 30,000 would be offset by equal surge in EB2-ROW demand. We would notice worst-case scenario (8th November 2006) only if EB-1 demand would remain similar or about 38,000 as seen in CY 2010.

The 'unknown' that would pour cold water on each scenario is EB3-EB2 porting. If EB3-EB2 porting for individuals with PD between 2003 to 2007 will exceed 10,000, we might see dates not progressing beyond September 2006 in FY 2011.

We do not expect to achieve any spillover from Family-Based category.

Detailed analysis on Visa Demand data for each category could be seen below in the calculations.

You can enter porting and visa demand for each category in 'User ENTERED' box for your Priority date, and see if your PD would be current with those assumptions.

This Prediction will be updated as and when more data is published - Last Updated 04 April 2011

Notes

Understanding Spillover

Spill Across (SA): It is a horizontal reallocation of visas within a category. (Unused number from EB2 ROW will be allotted to EB2 -India and China)

Fall Down (FD) : It is the vertical reallocation of visas between categories (eg: unused numbers from eb1 go to eb2....) Unused visa numbers in a higher preference level can "fall-down" to lower preference categories. For example, excess EB1 numbers can "fall-down" to EB2.

Fall Up (FU): Unused visa numbers in EB4 and EB5 can "fall-up" to EB1 then to EB2

EB2 - India-China Allocation (IC) - Visa numbers allotment to India and China EB2-category. This is 2,800 for each country or total 5,600.

How spillover works?

Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed

Visa Allocation available each year

EB1 - 40,000

EB2 -ROW-P-M - 34,400

EB2-IC - 5,600

EB4 - 7,854

EB5 - 7,854

Calculations