Adjusted EB2-India & China FY 2012 Retrogression Estimation based on I-485 Receipt Data

Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. This time we were fooled by USCIS January 2012 Inventory which in reality is nothing but a muck of mislaid data. Either USCIS inventory was incomplete in terms of November 2011 and December 2011 to an error of greater than 50% or currently released document has some error. Most likely at this point January Inventory looks incomplete not only with respect to December 2011 visa bulletin movement data but to great extent to November 2011 data. In any case, at this time we feel dejected to outline that we are back to square-one where we started for FY 2012. If any of this is accurate to 80-90%, we are talking about severe retrogression.

Visa Usage or Approvals from the released data 
Currently released data suggests that atleast 31,541 visas were used in Q1-FY 2012. This looks reasonable based on estimated visa use that was published few months ago. 

Estimated EB2-IC visa use upto Q1-FY 2012 is 8000+4805 (PWMB). Also for EB3 category at least 15% or more visa is used by Consular Processed (CP) cases, so monthly visa use is 0.85*3367 = 2861 per month at USCIS. For 3 months it becomes, 2831*3 = 8,493. EB4 could have used 2495 or more in Q1 and EB5 has used 2864 based on released data. Estimated from January Inventory, EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P use was  around 3,580 and 2321 respectively.
 
Visa use in Q1-FY2012 =  3580 + 8000+ 4805 + 2321+  8493 + 2495 + 2864 = 32,558 (approx 31,541)


EB2-IC Receipts from the released data 
Most disturbing and contradicting to January Inventory data is the total EB category receipts issued in Q1-FY 2012. YTY we had seen that total I-485 EB Receipts at TSC and NSC were 27% - 33% of total I-485 receipts at these service centers. Well current data suggests that when EB2-IC cut-off dates were moved so much in last 6 bulletins, this is no longer true. EB category receipts due to such huge movement now estimates as large as 50%-60% of total I-485 receipts at these centers.

Based on EB receipts for each month as per currently released data, and current trackitt trend for filings in each month for Q1-FY 2012, EB2-India & China demand estimate has almost doubled than what was estimated earlier just because of I-485 EB receipts now representing 50%-60% of total receipts and not 27%-33% anymore. Tabulated results is based on taking EB2-IC trackitt data as it is and assuming EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P  representation is 1/4th of that of EB2-IC on trackitt. See this article for reference on how this is calculated.

 EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P estimation above jives well with new applications estimated from January Inventory. Estimation from January 2012 Inventory falls atleast 20% low again because of incompleteness.

One fallacy to above method is that we have not considered any EB3 to EB2 Porting and any new receipts for EB4 and EB5. Based on inventory EB3 to EB2 Porting is not more than 1800, and EB4 & EB5 demand is around 622+223 = 845. Assuming incompleteness of inventory, if we increase this number by 50% more, it comes out to be 845*1.5 = 1267. Though good chunk of EB4 and EB5 cases are CP cases we can ignore it at this point and assume all 1267 were filed at USCIS. Out of new EB2-IC cases, there will be few PWMBs too, which account for these receipts. Such number should be part of October receipts. Considering all these errors, EB2-IC demand for Q1-FY2012 comes out to be 23,787 - 1800 - 1267 = 20720. This is atleast 8000-9000 higher than 11,563 what we estimated from January Inventory. This tells us that January Inventory is totally bogus with respect to EB2-IC demand and should be ignored. Again if these are not EB2-IC numbers then any reduction in here should be accounted by increase in EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 or EB5 demand, which by all means suggest less contributed spillover to EB2-IC. Based on this March 2008 PD total demand for this year becomes

EB2-IC demand March 2008 =  8000+ 20,720 + 1,800 = 30,520

Now based on current EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, we are estimating that spillover for this year can be as high as 35,500 and as low as 28,800. So it still means June-July 2008 PD can receive green card this FY 2012. My personal opinion is that due to long processing time at USCIS, DOS may not have to retrogress dates all the way to June-July 2008 and then move them again in FY 2013.So this means we can still see October 2008 PD to be current for the remaning fiscal year. USCIS may approve cases more likely on basis of PD than receipt date. EB1 demand will be a gate keeper for this year based on USCIS efforts to reduce this huge inventory. EB2-ROW-M-P demand may yield more spillover compared to last year.

Summary

• USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.

• PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.

• PERM to Inventory conversion factor in our

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012 - Employment Based Green Card

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. See this article for detail.


Summary of article

• USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.

• PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.

• PERM to Inventory conversion factor in our

EB2-IC PERM to Inventory factor is a User ENTERED' field and can be changed accordingly. 


You can also play with EB1, EB2-ROW-M-P, EB4 and EB5 demand to get your own estimate. Please read this article to estimate their respective demand.

Estimation on Retrogression - Last Updated - 26 February 2012

We do not expect to achieve any spillover from Family-Based category.

Detailed analysis on Visa Demand data for each category could be seen below in the calculations.

You can enter porting and visa demand for each category in 'User ENTERED' box for your Priority date, and see if your PD would be current with those assumptions.

This Prediction will be updated as and when more data is published - Last Updated 26 February 2012

Notes

Understanding Spillover

Spill Across (SA): It is a horizontal reallocation of visas within a category. (Unused number from EB2 ROW will be allotted to EB2 -India and China)

 

Fall Down (FD) : It is the vertical reallocation of visas between categories (eg: unused numbers from eb1 go to eb2....) Unused visa numbers in a higher preference level can "fall-down" to lower preference categories. For example, excess EB1 numbers can "fall-down" to EB2.

Fall Up (FU): Unused visa numbers in EB4 and EB5 can "fall-up" to EB1 then to EB2

EB2 - India-China Allocation (IC) - Visa numbers allotment to India and China EB2-category. This is 2,800 for each country or total 5,600.

How spillover works?

Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed

Visa Allocation available each year

EB1 - 40,000

EB2 -ROW-P-M - 34,400

EB2-IC - 5,600

EB4 - 9,940

EB5 - 9,940

Calculations

EB2-IC Visa Bulletin Movements FY 2012 - Is this how Mr. Oppenheim thinks?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? Or if we can formulate a mathematical expression that outlines his approach to move dates. That is when we started digging into this.

Edited - December 20, 2011

We started looking at the movement that Mr. Oppenheim did for Family-Based Category last year in FY 2010 and FY 2011 to see how he moved the dates and then retrogressed them once he had enough demand. Some key difference that should be noted between two categories are a) annual visas for FB category vs EB category is 260K vs. 140K. When one will reduce these numbers per category, ratio between two visa numbers would be quite similar b) For FB category demand could be easily generated in couple months as long as NVC have enough cases documentarily qualified (majority of demand in FB category comes from overseas consular posts) vs. EB category which rely mostly on USCIS to generate demand. C) Mr. Oppenheim started doing such movement for FB category in June 2010 which was still recalibrating until last fiscal year.

Mr. Oppenheim started doing similar movement of EB2-IC from October 2011. If we will assume that Mr. Oppenheim have similar thought process that he had while determining cut-off dates for FB category, then we should have seen movements as suggested in the column “EB2-IC”. But this was the not the case. Factors a) to c) could be the reason for this. As two categories have different demand and different annual visa numbers, movement could not be just purely based on similar difference. We took first two movements that we saw in the last visa bulletin to fit the best correlation to the data, and equation we received was

Recalibrated EB2-IC Movement

It should be noted that there is a correction in the equation. As forward movement will be less based on factor a) to c), even retrogression should be less than anticipated compared to FB category.

Forward Movement

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) – 60 days)

Retrogression

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) +60 days)

This equation closely satisfied movement that we saw for December 2011 and January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used this data to correlate Mr. Oppenheim thought process in order to extrapolate movement for next few bulletins; as long as he will continue to have same thought process for rest of the year.

Fallacy to above method, it does not take into account any EB demand, PERM numbers and assumes similar correlation will exist for rest of the year. Personally, I would request everyone to take this lightly and do not put lot of eggs into this basket. The correlation when outputted was very interesting hence we thought of sharing it with our readers, especially when there is no logic behind current movement (as far as I can tell). It can give better perspective to this process than just going by a gut feeling.

If this will make sense, and will start panning out in next few bulletin then cut-off dates estimated by equation does not make sense from June 2012 – November 2012, I would say in case spillover is enough, dates may stick around December 2008 until June 2012 and then retrogress to September 2007 in August-September 2012 for some time. By this time most of the folks should have received green card from the filings in October-December 2011. Successively dates will move back to June 2008 in October 2013 or beyond. In all, I would not care about movement shown in later half of the table.

Note : Results here are independent of demand and were shared because they looked interesting. By no means this suggests that this is what we may see in next visa bulletins.

EB2-China & India FY 2011 Movement Based on June Visa Bulletin

June 2011 Visa Bulletin has released, and EB2-India and China finally had a significant movement that was hoped after Mr. Charlie Oppenheim made a statement about atleast 12,000 unused visa numbers available from EB1 category for spillover to EB2 category. EB-2 China moved forward by two and a half (2.5) months to October 15, 2006, while EB-2 India moves forward after last month’s notable 7-week advancement by three and a half (3.5) months to October 15, 2006. In this article we will like to analyze statements in Visa Bulletin and discuss where EB2-IC will stand by end of this fiscal year (September 2011),

Notes from June Visa Bulletin for EB2-IC movement

"As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit."

There is nothing new in this statement. This was previously mentioned in May visa bulletin. EB2 India has reached it's annual limit and has started using yearly spillover or unused visa numbers from EB1.

"Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June."

As DOS mentioned in their past visa bulletin that they were interested in gauging EB3-EB2 porting demand and were very cautious before they could start using the unused visa numbers to progress EB2-IC dates. They checked demand for upgrade for first 10 days of May before advancing dates. Seriously .... they thought they will know the new porting demand in 10 days when PERM approval rate are at a year low level since past two months, and DOL is looking more to approve audit cases. Other than this, advancing dates only to 01 July 2006 for last bulletin would have not given them any real demand what they were looking for, unless they were worried about porting demand for PDs from 2002 to May 2006.

So my take on the statement "new upgrade demand has been minimal" is that most of the individuals with PDs between 2002 and May 2006 has exhausted their means, and others who are still working on it are stuck in PERM approval queue.

Advancing dates for EB2-IC to '15 October 2006' in June visa bulletin is a good move by DOS to gauge new upgrade demand for PDs in 2006, and at the same time this allows continuous demand for folks with PD pre-May 2006. In doing so DOS has exhausted almost 10,000-12,000 unused visa numbers available from EB1 category.

"The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability"

As mentioned in our past posts that spillover is used within a category purely based on First In First Out (FIFO) principle regardless of applicant's country of chargeability.

"Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011."

We will discuss this in detail below.


What can we expect for EB2-IC for rest of the fiscal year 2011?

Since DOS has completely used the available 10-12k unused visa numbers from the EB1 category this portends that we should expect small or no movement for EB2-IC in July visa bulletin. Any further movement for EB2-IC will only be due to unused visa numbers available from EB5 and EB2-ROW-M-P category.

EB2-ROW-M-P demand (FA)
But recent analysis of EB2-ROW-M-P PERM data for first two quarter suggests that demand for EB2-ROW-M-P for current fiscal year will be around 28,600 + 2,000. If this trend would change, we could see more demand (e.g. few unsuccessful EB1 folks from first quarter of fiscal year trying under EB2-ROW) as we will move towards end of fiscal year and EB2-ROW-M-P could yield no or less visa numbers as spillover. As of now we should expect only 5000 at most from EB2-ROW-M-P demand and as less as 3000.

EB5 demand (FU)
It is difficult to gauge EB5 demand. But if this year will see more demand for EB5 compared to last year, number of visa numbers available could be less. We expect at least 4000- 6000 unused visa numbers from EB5.

EB3 to EB2 Porting demand (PO)
How upgrade demand would shake up in coming months is far beyond calculable. All we can do is predict and assume. In coming months majority of demand could be from folks with PD after May 2006 and some portion could be from those who are currently in PERM queue. These numbers can be anywhere from 2000-2500. These are numbers which will control retrogression or stall of EB2-IC cut-off dates atleast for July visa bulletin.

Now some good news (EB1)
Knowing Mr. Oppenheim he would have never used all it's unused visa number unless he was sure he has enough lying under his sleeves in case EB2-ROW demand surges far beyond it's annual limit for current fiscal year. This suggest that DOS believes that either EB5 demand will yield atleast enough numbers that we predict or EB1 demand has potential to yield more (say atleast more 4000 -6000 visas).

Spillover available for the remaining fiscal year
Minimum = FA (lower bound) + FU (lower bound) +EB1 (lower bound) - PO (higher bound)
= 3000 + 4000 + 4000 - 2500 = 8500

Maximum = FA (upper bound) + FU (upper bound) +EB1 (upper bound) - PO (lower bound)
= 5000 + 6000 + 6000 - 2000 = 15000


Summarizing above headers
EB2-IC movement has potential to progress slowly or stall in July visa bulletin due to porting numbers and any increase in demand beyond expected can cause EB2-IC to retrogress in July visa bulletin. Expected movement for EB2-IC in coming visa bulletins is listed below. If this is it from EB1 category and we will not receive any more unused visas then EB2-IC will not cross December 2006.

Predictions for EB2-IC for FY 2011 - Updated 1st May 2011

We have updated predictions for EB2-FY 2011 for Employment Based category based on new EB2-ROW Demand, PWMB data gathered from PERM data and our EB2-EB3 porting calculations. This is it from us until August visa bulletin unless we will get some updates from Mr. Charlie Oppenheim in meantime.

Predictions for EB2 Category for FY 2011 - Updated 01 May 2011

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007 - Analysis of EB- India and China

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications. Some of the assumptions were made when analyzing the PERM data. To segregate petitions from EB2 and EB3 from the whole lot, "PWD Minimum Wage" was used. Any petition with minimum wage less than $55000 were assumed EB3 and rest were assumed EB2. Please note minimum wage required for the job is different than offered wage. Please see the PWMB database for EB - India and China below. Priority date was assumed as same as Receipt date. For many cases this may differ by 2-3 days. Entire data is broken by usual visa bulletin Priority cut-ff date. We plan to inculcate this data in our Prediction for EB2-IC for FY 2011. This will definitely change the whole outlook of potential movement. Depending upon how dates will progress in every bulletin, please add these data to the porting numbers. We will update our prediction calculator that will include PWMB data automatically (PWMB section will be added). EB2-IC movement beyond March 2007 does not look good in light of these added visa demand.

CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE ANALYSIS

EB2 India and China FY 2011 Movement - Analysis based on May Visa Bulletin

So May visa bulletin has been released and it brought disappointment to Indian and Chinese national under EB-2 Category. There were lot of hype and emotion around immigrant community that we would see a significant movement for EB2-IC in May Visa Bulletin due to availability of 12,000 unused visa numbers from EB-1 category (which is still available by the way). Here we would like to have a very critical analysis of the entire situation, statements made in Visa Bulletin, why we did not see ample movement in May visa bulletin, what we expect in coming bulletin, how this would change the predictions for EB2-IC over the course of year and of course, EB3-EB2 porting.

Why dates did not move to predicted December 2006 cut-off for EB2-IC?

Our predictions were based on availability of 12,000 unused visa numbers from EB1 category and half yearly EB2-ROW , EB4 and EB5 demand. Movement in May visa bulletin clearly suggests that former were not completely used and it is too early to use latter when we are just near early April, far from spillover season which usually commence in last quarter of fiscal year. In addition to this, DOS is worried about unknown demand from EB3 to EB2 upgrades. Before going into further detail, let's analyze Section "VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS" in detail and read through each line carefully.

Analyzing "VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS"

"Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high."

Above statement definitely bolsters the statement from Mr. Oppenhiem that EB1-demand is low and EB2-IC would at least receive 12000 visa numbers from them.

"Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)"

DOS here confirms that there are still thousands of "otherwise unused" visa number available from EB1-category but is worried about "unknown demand" from EB3 to EB2 porting which restricts them from moving the cut-off dates by bounds and leaps for EB2-IC. If you will read above quote carefully, it also suggests that the EB2-ROW demand is not high enough to consume any spillover and unused visa numbers for now would only be consumed by EB2-IC.

Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

"INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences."

Assures that there are otherwise unused numbers available from EB1 and EB2-ROW category. So we should expect some spillover from EB2-ROW. How much, is still to be seen. I would still assume at least 8000 -9000.

"Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. "

Since EB2-C has not reached it's annual limit (see below), DOS could not use available unused visa numbers to move China with EB2-India (unless it is last quarter where they have to move dates to avoid wastage of annual visa numbers) . This is one of the few reasons that entire "12000 unused visa numbers" was not used for May visa bulletin. At most EB2-I could have advanced to 01 August 2006, same PD as EB2-China. Though (INA) Section 202(a)(5) allows EB2-I to use available spillover but PD cut-off date cannot move beyond that of EB2-C PD.

"Since under INA Section 203(e) such numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability, greater number use by one country would indicate greater demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates."

As known EB2-I would receive most of the otherwise unused visa numbers from EB1 and EB2-ROW compared to EB2-C as demand and PD cut-off date for EB2-I is earlier than EB2-C.

"Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used. Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit."

DOS just bolstering or justifying their decision of moving cut-off date for EB2-I to 01 July 2006 using "otherwise unused" numbers whereas EB2-C only moved due to it's allocated 233 visa monthly limit.

"For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit."

Of all the statements, India has reached it's annual limit is most difficult to digest. We would discuss this in detail below. This could give some indication of EB3-EB2 porting numbers.

"The rate of number use under Section 202(a)(5) is continually monitored to determine whether subsequent adjustments are needed in visa availability for the oversubscribed countries. This helps assure that all available Employment preference numbers will be used, while insuring that numbers also remain available for applicants from all other countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit."

DOS want to ensure that available spillover from all employment preference (EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 and EB5) should be used for oversubscribed countries in a controlled manner but at the same time does not want to overuse the spillover for one country (India in this case), and thus ensuring that enough visa is available for applicants from other countries, which is yet to reach their per country limit (China, may be South Korea, other ROW countries).

"As mentioned earlier, the number of applicants who may be “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is unknown. As a result, the cut-off date which governs use of Section 202(a)(5) numbers has been advanced more rapidly than normal, in an attempt to ascertain the amount of “upgrade” demand in the pipeline while at the same time administering use of the available numbers. "

DOS just want to test the waters and want to ball-park the numbers for EB3 to EB2 porting before they can entirely use available spillover from other categories. It seems that so far they have just thrown otherwise unused 2800 available visa numbers from EB1 to gauge the demand for porting numbers. EB2-IC still have at least 9000 unused visa numbers from EB1-category that will be used later in year.

"This action risks a surge in demand that could adversely impact the cut-off date later in the fiscal year. However, it also limits the possibility that potential demand would not materialize and the annual limit would not be reached due to lack of cut-off date movement."

It is unclear to me if DOS is suggesting that there is a possibility of visa wastage this year due to lack of cut-off date movement (which will be terrible) or they are suggesting that this action would restrict them from wasting any visas. It is not explicitly stated and completely ambiguous to me.

Summarizing above statements and predicting movements in coming months.

"Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:

China: none to three weeks expected through July. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.

India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable. No August or September estimate is possible at this time."

Since DOS would not know any real EB2-IC demand due to EB3 to EB2 porting until May end or early week of June (demand would only start coming after 1st May 2011) , we expect no or limited movement for EB2-I until July visa bulletin. If demand would rise or surge in month of May-June due to EB3-EB2 porting, we expect movement by few weeks in July visa bulletin. Do not expect spillover to kick in until August-September in this case. In meantime EB2-C will keep on moving by a week every month based on it's annual visa allocation.

Of this entire situation, one good thing is that DOS moved dates only by two months and not by huge amount because we expect EB3 to EB2 porting to be a decent number around 1500 for folks with PD beyond 08 May 2006 and before 2007. This high demand would have overwhelmed DOS and EB2-I could have ended up seeing lesser movement for rest of the fiscal year; greater movement is still a possibility due to ONLY two months advancement. This may be a "Blessing in Disguise" after all for EB2-I.

EB3 to EB2 Porting and Annual Limit for EB2-India reached
DOS mentioned that annual limit for EB2 category for India is reached which is still little shocking. There could be two scenarios to it. Lets discuss them in detail here.

a) DOS moved dates for EB2-IC in FY 2010 to 08 May 2006 without considering or (knowing) the real demand for EB3 to EB2 porting and USCIS/DOS were later burned with number of new applications they received that were far beyond available unused visa numbers from FY 2010. So DOS continued to use visa numbers from EB2-I current fiscal year allocation to satisfy demand from previous year in addition to demand from all new EB3-EB2 porting applications post September 2011. In order to avoid retrogressing cut-off dates for EB2-I and to fulfill backlog demand, entire annual visa allocation limit for EB2-I was utilized. Thus DOS wants to be very careful for this fiscal year and would move cut-off dates in a very controlled manner so not to underestimate demand from EB3 to EB2 porting. This suggests that DOS rather be on underside for annual limit and waste few visas rather than underestimating the porting demand and consuming more than annual limit.

OR

b) EB3 to EB2 porting is really very high which is not transparent in monthly demand data due to continuous turnover. Utilizing complete annual limit for EB2-I suggests that EB3 to EB2 porting for fiscal year so far is around 3000 and this would convert into 6000 porting numbers plus addition of new EB3 to EB2 porting application with PD beyond 08 May 2006 PD for entire year. So yearly upgrade could be somewhere between 6000-7500 depending upon how and when dates will progress in coming months.

Predictions for EB2 in light of new developments

We would still like to say that in worst case scenario we are still marching towards our current worst-case scenario of 01 April 2007, which apparently could become realistic scenario due to conservative DOS approach and potential for some spillover going unused or wasted. It highly depends on how EB3 to EB2 porting demand would shake up in coming two months. A steep increase in demand would make DOS more conservative and dates reaching 01 January 2007 would be a challenge.

I still have a hunch that 01 July 2007 is a possibility as long as DOS can be little aggressive and we will see decent movement in July visa bulletin.

Again as mentioned before, dates would never become current for EB2-IC to open the gates to build huge inventory for future I-485s .DOS would always moves dates in controlled manner in forthcoming years.

Concerns - Two Fold

• This may a bold statement but it looks like AILA is guiding DOS too much on how to advance Priority Dates than it being vice-versa. All hype of unknown high EB3 to EB2 upgrades has come from AILA. I really doubt EB3 to EB2 porting number is so high and DOS is getting heedlessly so conservative in their approach . The numbers may be high but I am still not convinced. We would know in few months.
  

• The worry that if dates are not progressed enough in July- August visa bulletin, some visa numbers can go waste which otherwise could be used wisely.

Possible EB2 Movement in May Visa Bulletin - Updated Information

Here is the update on Possible EB-2 Priority Date Movement in the May Visa Bulletin. AILA has updated this after following-up on earlier observation of at least 12,000 unused visa numbers from EB1 to EB2. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that these unused visa numbers will be used entirely for May 2011 Visa Bulletin.

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 11040563 (posted Apr. 5, 2011)"

"Following-up on his earlier observations on EB-1 demand and "spill-down" to EB-2 reported on InfoNet on March 29, 2011 (InfoNet Doc. No. 11032960), Charlie Oppenheim discussed scenarios for EB-2 movement in the coming months. In preparation of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin, DOS will consider the approximately 12,000 unused EB-1 numbers that will "spill-down" to EB-2, EB-2 demand and possible unused numbers, and will consult with USCIS on its processing potential. A quick look by DOS at this point indicates that there is the possibility for greater advancement of the India EB-2 category than had earlier been thought. Doing so will give DOS better visibility into EB-3 upgrade demand in the pipeline, and will better ensure that all visas allowed annually are used. However, a rapid advance could spur a surge in demand that could impact the cut-off dates later in the year. The May Visa Bulletin, generally issued mid-April, will contain a discussion of visa availability projections for the remainder of the year."

It is interesting to see that DOL would progress dates as much as possible and then will move them back if they will see high surge in demand. Dates are predicted to move in light of 12,000 unused visa numbers, current EB2-ROW demand and some unused numbers from EB4 and EB5. Lets hope for maximum movement for EB2-IC in coming months. We will revise our May 2011 visa bulletin prediction for EB2-IC based on above statement.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2011 - Employment Based Green Card

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date movement for Fiscal Year 2011. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. visa statistics recently released for CY 2010, PERM data published by DOL for CY 2010, latest trend on Trackitt for EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Dates are predicted based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2011. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is predicted.

New Predictions - Last Updated - 01 May 2011

We have added new sections for PWMB and Porting under calculation. Please use our reference mentioned in the PWMB section to calculate total visa based on August visa bulletin cut-off date. We should only consider demand due to porting and PWMB upto August visa bulletin cut-off date for predicting EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. Any demand after August visa bulletin cut off date will not affect EB2-IC movement for this fiscal year. Please assume "August visa bulletin" cut-off date and calculate PWMB and assume Porting numbers based on our calculations. These field are User ENTERED only.

Our worst-case scenario is based on 28,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 30,600. For our worst case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin to reach cut-off date of 1st November 2006. As per these assumptions EB2-IC PD dates would hardly reach 01 January 2007.

Our realistic scenario is based on 24,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 28,600. For our realistic case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin to reach cut-off date of 1st November 2006. In this case, EB2-IC PD dates would reach 08 March 2007.

Our optimistic scenario is based on 20,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 26,600. For our optimistic case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin has to reach cut-off date of 1st January 2007. This bring more porting numbers. In this case, EB2-IC PD dates would reach 01 June 2007.

All these assumptions is based on receiving atleast 5974 unused visa numbers from EB5. Any huge reduction in number will make dates moving difficult. In this cases dates will hardly cross December 2006.

This is it from us until August visa bulletin. Good Luck.

New Predictions - Last Updated - 04 April 2011

Based on currently released statement by Mr. Oppenheim on 12,000 available unused visa numbers from EB1 category to EB2 for FY 2011, we are revising our Predictions for EB2 Category for FY 2011. We are reporting worst-case, realistic and optimistic scenarios for our predictions.

Realistic prediction (01 July 2007) is based on availability of atleast 16,000 unused visa numbers from EB-1 category. We are convinced that EB3-EB2 porting number predictions for individuals with PD before 08 May 06 is not more than 4500. We will stick to our predictions for EB2-ROW, EB4 and EB5 consumption unless we see different trend for rest of the year. Based on all these predictions, EB2-IC dates will progress to 1st July 2007 for FY 2011.

Worst-case (01 April 2007) would be seen only if 12000 unused visa numbers are available from EB1-category, and EB3-EB2 porting numbers would rise to 6000 due to introduction of new porting cases as and when dates would become current for post 08 May 2006 PD; especially if we see huge movement for May visa bulletin. This would give USCIS enough time to consider addition of these new petitions to count them towards available spillover. This jump of 1500 visa numbers to porting would also be used to offset addition of application from petitioners who had originally missed the boat during July 2007 fiasco.

Optimistic movement (01 October 2007) would be seen if EB1-category would yield 20,000 unused visa numbers. We do not predict dates to become current for everyone during FY 2011. If USCIS would not have enough buffer to predict movements for EB2-IC f post July 2007 for FY 2012, dates might move beyond October 2007 by 5-6 months during first quarter of FY 2012.

Predictions that were as of 03 Feb 2011

There are good chances that the dates for EB2-India and China would progress to 1st January 2007 as long as we would see EB-1 demand to be reasonable (around 34,000) and EB3-EB2 porting could stick to assumptions made in the calculations below. Any lower demand for EB-1 (around 30,000) in FY 2011 would take predictions to optimistic level (22nd March, 2007) as long as EB3-EB2 porting could hold it's ground.

In any case, dates are less likely to progress beyond 22nd March, 2007. Reason behind this assumpion is that any EB-1 demand below 30,000 would be offset by equal surge in EB2-ROW demand. We would notice worst-case scenario (8th November 2006) only if EB-1 demand would remain similar or about 38,000 as seen in CY 2010.

The 'unknown' that would pour cold water on each scenario is EB3-EB2 porting. If EB3-EB2 porting for individuals with PD between 2003 to 2007 will exceed 10,000, we might see dates not progressing beyond September 2006 in FY 2011.

We do not expect to achieve any spillover from Family-Based category.

Detailed analysis on Visa Demand data for each category could be seen below in the calculations.

You can enter porting and visa demand for each category in 'User ENTERED' box for your Priority date, and see if your PD would be current with those assumptions.

This Prediction will be updated as and when more data is published - Last Updated 04 April 2011

Notes

Understanding Spillover

Spill Across (SA): It is a horizontal reallocation of visas within a category. (Unused number from EB2 ROW will be allotted to EB2 -India and China)

Fall Down (FD) : It is the vertical reallocation of visas between categories (eg: unused numbers from eb1 go to eb2....) Unused visa numbers in a higher preference level can "fall-down" to lower preference categories. For example, excess EB1 numbers can "fall-down" to EB2.

Fall Up (FU): Unused visa numbers in EB4 and EB5 can "fall-up" to EB1 then to EB2

EB2 - India-China Allocation (IC) - Visa numbers allotment to India and China EB2-category. This is 2,800 for each country or total 5,600.

How spillover works?

Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed

Visa Allocation available each year

EB1 - 40,000

EB2 -ROW-P-M - 34,400

EB2-IC - 5,600

EB4 - 7,854

EB5 - 7,854

Calculations