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Home › Predictions for EB2-IC for FY 2011 - Updated 1st May 2011
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Predictions for EB2-IC for FY 2011 - Updated 1st May 2011

Posted On Sunday, May 1, 2011 by CM
13 comments
We have updated predictions for EB2-FY 2011 for Employment Based category based on new EB2-ROW Demand, PWMB data gathered from PERM data and our EB2-EB3 porting calculations. This is it from us until August visa bulletin unless we will get some updates from Mr. Charlie Oppenheim in meantime.





CM
Predictions are based on educated guess and are not guaranteed. Please take with a grain of salt. Always consult a licensed immigration attorney for your specific situation.
Discussion
13 comments
Share your priority date, category and country - CM or the community will respond.
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Share your PD, category and country. The community will respond.
Is there a chance that September 22 2006 EB2-I might be current in July?
Chances are 50-50. Mostly not in July 2011. Somewhere around August 2011.


Anonymous said...

Is there a chance that September 22 2006 EB2-I might be current in July?
Hi CM, Your predictions are getting more and more accurate and closer to the reality expected. Appreciate your contribution to the Immigrants' community. Thank you very much.
Will aug9th eb2-I be current in June bulletin
@Anonymous

As mentioned by CM in his previous post, chances are 50-50. However, you can see yourself current by Aug 2011 VB. Good Luck.

gcw07
@gcw07 Thank you for your kind words. At the same time, you are also contributing equally by raising good points. Keep up the good work.
Hi CM, first of all thanks a lot for great analysis. My PD is Nov 2009 and since its too far out i didnt track the updates but your site has got me addicted to tracking the priority dates.
I have a question, most of the analysis here and the GC calculator that you have forecast time for getting the GC. But after the 2007 year people get their visas the priority date will be ahead of the GC, so that USCIS has an inventory of I-485 applications. How many months of inventory do you think they will usually keep (after 2007 people are cleared). So for Nov 2010 your GC calculator says i will get visa in 2.5 years or so (using default settings), but by when will you expect that i would be able to file I-485.
my PD is Oct 17 2006-EB2 when do you think it will be current?
RK
@SM SM that calculator is purely based on assuming some spillover every year for EB2-India. I expect spillover to slow down each coming year with revival of economy and increase in porting demand. Also we are updating our GC calculator based on PERM distribution based on wages rather than 50:50 assumption. EB2:EB3 distribution is no where close to that. It is more around 70:30 or so. Also with reduction in PERM audit case backlog, new cases are added for FY 2008 and FY 2009. So that entire scenario will change.

There are chances that DOS can make EB2 current for a month but I do not think they will do that. They will rather move dates in controlled manner by few months each quarter.

So in all wait time could be longer than expected. Please check back once we will update our green card calculator.
70 : 30 is for EB2-India. Check our recent PWMB calculations which suggests that.
@RK I feel bad for you but you should be current next month. Worst case in August.
@SM SM that calculator is purely based on assuming some spillover every year for EB2-India. I expect spillover to slow down each coming year with revival of economy and increase in porting demand. Also we are updating our GC calculator based on PERM distribution based on wages rather than 50:50 assumption. EB2:EB3 distribution is no where close to that. It is more around 70:30 or so. Also with reduction in PERM audit case backlog, new cases are added for FY 2008 and FY 2009. So that entire scenario will change.

There are chances that DOS can make EB2 current for a month but I do not think they will do that. They will rather move dates in controlled manner by few months each quarter.

So in all wait time could be longer than expected. Please check back once we will update our green card calculator.
@gcw07 Thank you for your kind words. At the same time, you are also contributing equally by raising good points. Keep up the good work.