Thursday, February 3, 2011

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2011 - Employment Based Green Card


Thursday, February 03, 2011 | , , , ,

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date movement for Fiscal Year 2011. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. visa statistics recently released for CY 2010, PERM data published by DOL for CY 2010, latest trend on Trackitt for EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Dates are predicted based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2011. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is predicted.



New Predictions - Last Updated - 01 May 2011

We have added new sections for PWMB and Porting under calculation. Please use our reference mentioned in the PWMB section to calculate total visa based on August visa bulletin cut-off date. We should only consider demand due to porting and PWMB upto August visa bulletin cut-off date for predicting EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. Any demand after August visa bulletin cut off date will not affect EB2-IC movement for this fiscal year. Please assume "August visa bulletin" cut-off date and calculate PWMB and assume Porting numbers based on our calculations. These field are User ENTERED only.

Our worst-case scenario is based on 28,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 30,600. For our worst case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin to reach cut-off date of 1st November 2006. As per these assumptions EB2-IC PD dates would hardly reach 01 January 2007.


Our realistic scenario is based on 24,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 28,600. For our realistic case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin to reach cut-off date of 1st November 2006. In this case, EB2-IC PD dates would reach 08 March 2007.

Our optimistic scenario is based on 20,000 unused EB1 visa numbers and EB2-ROW-M-P demand of 26,600. For our optimistic case scenario we expect August Visa Bulletin has to reach cut-off date of 1st January 2007. This bring more porting numbers. In this case, EB2-IC PD dates would reach 01 June 2007.


All these assumptions is based on receiving atleast 5974 unused visa numbers from EB5. Any huge reduction in number will make dates moving difficult. In this cases dates will hardly cross December 2006.


This is it from us until August visa bulletin. Good Luck.



New Predictions - Last Updated - 04 April 2011


Based on currently released statement by Mr. Oppenheim on 12,000 available unused visa numbers from EB1 category to EB2 for FY 2011, we are revising our Predictions for EB2 Category for FY 2011. We are reporting worst-case, realistic and optimistic scenarios for our predictions.


Realistic prediction (01 July 2007) is based on availability of atleast 16,000 unused visa numbers from EB-1 category. We are convinced that EB3-EB2 porting number predictions for individuals with PD before 08 May 06 is not more than 4500. We will stick to our predictions for EB2-ROW, EB4 and EB5 consumption unless we see different trend for rest of the year. Based on all these predictions, EB2-IC dates will progress to 1st July 2007 for FY 2011.


Worst-case (01 April 2007) would be seen only if 12000 unused visa numbers are available from EB1-category, and EB3-EB2 porting numbers would rise to 6000 due to introduction of new porting cases as and when dates would become current for post 08 May 2006 PD; especially if we see huge movement for May visa bulletin. This would give USCIS enough time to consider addition of these new petitions to count them towards available spillover. This jump of 1500 visa numbers to porting would also be used to offset addition of application from petitioners who had originally missed the boat during July 2007 fiasco.


Optimistic movement (01 October 2007) would be seen if EB1-category would yield 20,000 unused visa numbers. We do not predict dates to become current for everyone during FY 2011. If USCIS would not have enough buffer to predict movements for EB2-IC f post July 2007 for FY 2012, dates might move beyond October 2007 by 5-6 months during first quarter of FY 2012.



Predictions that were as of 03 Feb 2011

There are good chances that the dates for EB2-India and China would progress to 1st January 2007 as long as we would see EB-1 demand to be reasonable (around 34,000) and EB3-EB2 porting could stick to assumptions made in the calculations below. Any lower demand for EB-1 (around 30,000) in FY 2011 would take predictions to optimistic level (22nd March, 2007) as long as EB3-EB2 porting could hold it's ground.


In any case, dates are less likely to progress beyond 22nd March, 2007. Reason behind this assumpion is that any EB-1 demand below 30,000 would be offset by equal surge in EB2-ROW demand. We would notice worst-case scenario (8th November 2006) only if EB-1 demand would remain similar or about 38,000 as seen in CY 2010.


The 'unknown' that would pour cold water on each scenario is EB3-EB2 porting. If EB3-EB2 porting for individuals with PD between 2003 to 2007 will exceed 10,000, we might see dates not progressing beyond September 2006 in FY 2011.


We do not expect to achieve any spillover from Family-Based category.


Detailed analysis on Visa Demand data for each category could be seen below in the calculations.


You can enter porting and visa demand for each category in 'User ENTERED' box for your Priority date, and see if your PD would be current with those assumptions.


This Prediction will be updated as and when more data is published - Last Updated 04 April 2011




Notes



Understanding Spillover


Spill Across (SA): It is a horizontal reallocation of visas within a category. (Unused number from EB2 ROW will be allotted to EB2 -India and China)



Fall Down (FD) : It is the vertical reallocation of visas between categories (eg: unused numbers from eb1 go to eb2....) Unused visa numbers in a higher preference level can "fall-down" to lower preference categories. For example, excess EB1 numbers can "fall-down" to EB2.



Fall Up (FU): Unused visa numbers in EB4 and EB5 can "fall-up" to EB1 then to EB2



EB2 - India-China Allocation (IC) - Visa numbers allotment to India and China EB2-category. This is 2,800 for each country or total 5,600.


How spillover works?

Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed


Visa Allocation available each year

EB1 - 40,000

EB2 -ROW-P-M - 34,400

EB2-IC - 5,600

EB4 - 7,854

EB5 - 7,854






Calculations


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61 comments:

CM said...

Based on recently released data on large amount of unused EB1 number available for FY 2011, we will updating our predictions for EB2-IC this weekend.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Thanks putting this informative blog! In some of your post, i think, you mention 15,000 Spill. But above you calculated 26474. Not sure why?
Also, Spill from EB1 is 12,000?

Thanks,

Rajeev

Yashneet said...

Thanks for the updates. Your posts have been really helpful.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Much......very helpful.

CM said...

@Yashneet You are welcome Yashneet.

CM said...

Our pleasure.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Much......very helpful.

Pedro Gonzales said...

Great blog. I had made similar calculations myself and my estimate is close to yours. Your data sources for EB4 / EB5 and EB2 ROW spill overs are far more reliable than mine were and your presentation of your calculations is excellent.

A couple of wrinkles that you might want to think of as you refine your analysis in the future (particularly helpful to those of us who have PDs beyond July 2007):
a) What happens once the PD progresses beyond July 2007, How many applicants per month are you assuming beyond that stage? I believe it will be lower than the pre-July 2007 figures due to a fall in immigrants and abandoned applications because of the recession.
b) Is there a way to predict the number of spill overs next year? With a recovery in the economy, would the number of applicants increase, decreasing spill overs? What % increase would be reasonable?

CM said...

@Pedro Gonzales

Thank you so much for all your suggestions. We will try to enhance our tool based on your suggestions and recommendations. We have done some work on post July-2007 cases where we have used PERM data and assumed 50:50 distribution between EB3 and EB2. We plan to update our tool with each released inventory report.

neha said...

Thank you for an excellent source of information about immigration. My friend and I always visit this website for any information required.

My priority date is January 2010 and I applied under EB2 category. I am from India. Please let me know when will u be able to apply for my I-485.

Also the date calculated by the calculator is from the day we applied for green card or the day when we calculated it.

Thanks and Regards

Anonymous said...

Hi CM Thanks for all the posts.

Can you please predict when my priority date of March 10 2007(EB2-India) will be current?

Thank You

Anonymous said...

Ohh no!!..guess what..May bulletin is out - EB2 SIGNIFICANTLY moved to TWO months to 01 July'06

C'mon.. really.. any more predictions??

Prashant said...

This is the only prediction that makes some sense... I should be more frequent visitor to this page... Thanks!

CM said...

Please see "EB2 Movement for FY 2011 - Analysis Based on May Visa Bulletin."

Anonymous said...

Hi CM Thanks for all the posts.

Can you please predict when my priority date of March 10 2007(EB2-India) will be current?

Thank You

CM said...

@Prashant Thank You Prashant. Please feel free to ask any questions.

Anonymous said...

Did you guys considered about the dependents? i was told that each applicant on an average consume about 2.25 Visa numbers? Any comments on this?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Did you guys considered about the dependents? i was told that each applicant on an average consume about 2.25 Visa numbers? Any comments on this?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
Thanks for your provinding valueable information and suggestions. Can you predict for EB2 priority date Apr 2008 shall be current?

CM said...

If we do not see much upgrades this and next year, and we continue to receive similar spillover you can be current in September-December 2012. But I have a feeling that people would try to upgrade or port left and right during next year or two. Porting has recently picked up in October 2010 and it would take time for it to plateau unless until all the options for EB3 are exhausted. Recently few folks from EB3-ROW has also started looking into porting. This will affect spillover in future. I do not want to sound pessimistic but EB3 to EB2 upgrades are happening and will continue to happen for a while.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
Thanks for your provinding valueable information and suggestions. Can you predict for EB2 priority date Apr 2008 shall be current?

gcw07 said...

I note a missing point. What about the people who missed the boat till July 07? Will they not be accounted in the calculations?

Anonymous said...

CM, You rock !!!

CM said...

Thanks and we hope you will find our predictions helpful.

Anonymous said...

CM, You rock !!!

Anonymous said...

CM, Thanks for all your efforts in GC prediction which brings relief and hope to so many people waiting....
As per your expert analysis, could you please let me know when EB2 India Feb 14 2008 will be current?
Thanks,
SP.

CM said...

@SP Somewhere around FY 2013. 1st quarter or last quarter depends upon how DOS would handle post July 2007 cases.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

As per I-485 pending inventory report last published on 5th Jan 2011, applications after Oct2007 are very less. Do you think the dates will move fast after 2007?

Thanks
HB

Rahul said...

Hello CM,

Excellent work. I've been sharing this link with all my friends.

My priority date is Sep 2007(EB-2)-India, can I expect to get my PD sometime this year or next year? Will I make it despite the EB-3 TO EB-2 porting.

Thanks again.
Rahul.

Raj said...

Is anyone running into issue with this tool? Any errors?

sue said...

My PD is Oct 6th, 2007...What are the possibilities of this becoming current in 2011 fiscal year by sep? I really need to know for applying for a job...Waiting for next 3 months VB's...Thanks..

CM said...

Is anyone running into issue with this tool with an error? Someone posted this yesterday but I could not confirm. Please leave message so that I can troubleshoot. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

@CM

No, we had some error "Blogger is not available" yesterday

CM said...

@HB PWMB will cause some retrogression once dates will reach July 2007 but other than October 2007 should be quick. PD 2008 and 2009 should expect more demand since many audit cases are getting approved these days.

CM said...

@Rahul I do not think you can make it this year but you never know how DOS will try to handle post July 2007 cases if they think they are having enough spillover to cover July 2007. My personal opinion is chances are none for this year but again I am not DOS. Let's be hopeful.

CM said...

@sue I am assuming you are EB2. Possibilities are next to none. But it could become current in first quarter of FY 2012 depending upon how dates will progress in coming months.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

my PD is Sep 2008 EB2. Is there any Possibilities for next year atleast for my PD...

CM said...

Chances for next year are less but not impossible. It depends upon amount of spillover received next year. If we will reach anywhere near June 2007 chances good be good as long as we will receive similar spillover.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

my PD is Sep 2008 EB2. Is there any Possibilities for next year atleast for my PD...

Jayaprathap said...

CM,

MY PD is Sep 2007, Do you think I have a chance next FY(2012)

CM said...

@Jayaprathap Chances are very bright. FY 2012 could be your year my friend.

Anonymous said...

My PD is December 2nd 2008 in EB2. How many years do I need to wait for applying I-485 ?

CM said...

Anywhere from 3 months to 2 years ff DOS will follow the path to make EB2-IC current to intake inventory else 4 years from your PD .i.e. FY 2012.

Anonymous said...

My PD is December 2nd 2008 in EB2. How many years do I need to wait for applying I-485 ?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

my PD is Sep 2008 EB2. Is there any Possibilities for next year atleast for my PD...

sue said...

My PD is Oct 6th, 2007...What are the possibilities of this becoming current in 2011 fiscal year by sep? I really need to know for applying for a job...Waiting for next 3 months VB's...Thanks..

gcw07 said...

I note a missing point. What about the people who missed the boat till July 07? Will they not be accounted in the calculations?

neha said...

Thank you for an excellent source of information about immigration. My friend and I always visit this website for any information required.

My priority date is January 2010 and I applied under EB2 category. I am from India. Please let me know when will u be able to apply for my I-485.

Also the date calculated by the calculator is from the day we applied for green card or the day when we calculated it.

Thanks and Regards

CM said...

Our pleasure.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Much......very helpful.

Varsha said...

my priority date is july 17th , 07. when i can expect GC?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You can be current in September visa bulletin and expect to receive GC in 1 month if pre-adjudicated or 8 months if filing new after getting current.

Sun Srk said...

Hi CM,

My PD is June 17th, 2008. Any chance my PD would be current temporarily to accept more applications.

Is this right time to shift company. Got a good offer from stable company. Thinking about giving importance to Career, since for my PD GC would not be coming at least until Setp/Dec 2012.

GoGreen said...

CM,

Your blog post has been a one reliable source that I refer to. Incredible work!! Thanks a Lot. The spillover, porting etc are very tricky to navigate through, do you know when I can expect to go green. My PD is Jan 2008 and am at crossroad in my career, your insight would help me decide. Thanks in advance

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I would give always importance to career when compared to green card. If your I-140 is approved, you can always port your PD with the new company. June 2008 is possible but chances are way less, go ahead and make a move.

Prnc said...

Hello CM,

I appreciate your comprehensive model. Do you plan to revise the estimates in view of the EB2-IC jump in the July Bulletin. If not, what in mind is a good estimate for a PD of March 2008?

Prince

Rajasekhar Nutualapti said...

Hello CM,
My priority Date is December 3 2009. (Indian EB2). Please suggest when would my PD becomes current?. How long I need to wait.
Raj

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Atleast 4-5 years

DJ said...

Very interesting answer. For Jul 2007 EB2 India cases you expect that the PD would become current very soon. For March 2008 case, you feel it might become current soon, though a very less chance. Why so much of a jump for Dec 2009 cases? (I.e. 4-5 years)

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

4 years is for one to receive green card. We believe there are at least 86000 odd individuals including dependents cases for EB2-India-China until March 2009. If we assume there are 20k spillover each year then it may take 4 more years. This may change when we will add I-140 conversion ratio to our GC.

Ashish Aneja said...

But why do you need to wait till the time GC comes? You can change jobs 180 days after 485 filing without any impact to the GC process. So why do you want to wait till GC comes?
I am in a similar position as you and am considering my options. Please share whats your info on this.

Ash said...

But how much time for I485 filing date to become current? For many people. their spouce can start looking for a job after i485 is approved, or they can change employer 180 days after 485 approval, so that date is important too. ANy predictions regarding that?

Guest said...

This site rocks!

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Use GC calculator it tells you time from today.

Pree4sathya said...

Hi i hear so many H1B plp went back to their home countries and withdrew their petitions and lot of plp got their perm rejected and the demand for GC is reduced since 2008...will this do any favor to the eb2 plp in USA?

guest said...

My employer keeps saying that when eb2 reaches 2008 it will move faster ,is it true?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

If this is true then it will help for sure. Lets wait and watch how everything will play out.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I am not sure about that. PERM numbers tell different story. We will know more once dates will move.

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