Thursday, January 20, 2011

When will I get my Green Card? - Green Card Calculator for EB category


Thursday, January 20, 2011 | , , ,

If you ever wondered "When will I get my Green Card?", here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category. As per recent data released by USCIS on May 26th, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory this is a calculation that tells an individal how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card from current date (as per GMT).

Last Edited for October Inventory - December 29, 2011
Data beyond July 2007

Data beyond July 2007 is segregated from PERM data with respective to 'Priority Date'. To segregate EB2 and EB3, PWD minimum salary was used as a basis instead of assumption of 50:50. Ratio 50:50 do not holds true for many countries. Please see table below, which outlines PERM distribution for EB2 and EB3 for different countries.
Spillover Estimation - System will recommend spillover that we expect to receive in coming years for each country and category . EB2-India & China - PERM distribution for different priority date in EB2 - India and China was calculated. This distribution will control how spillover will be distributed among EB2-IC as dates will progress for different Priority Dates. System would try to average the Spillover among EB2-India and China in such a way that number of years required to reach similar PDs are as close as possible. For each fiscal year, system assumes following spillover.

In general distribution of EB2-IC PERM Ratio for different PD year is as shown below. In general, waiting time for Indian nationals in EB2 and EB3 category looks terrible. Since density of applicants per month in EB2-India is so high, that in long run EB2-China will not receive majority of spillover (couple hundred or few thousands). Since EB2 will not be cleared for atleast next 5-6 years, spillover expeccted to EB3 category is minimum. EB3-India will get some indirect- spillover each year due to EB3 to EB2 upgrades or porting which will cause queue to clear faster than anticipated. Individuals with PD close to 2004 -2006 will see ample benefit of this every year. Apparently, if EB2-I will stop receiving spillover or receive minimum spillover in coming years, wait time for EB3-India and EB2-India will end up same. If you will note EB3-India has only 102k estimated demand vs. 165k for EB2-India for PD - March 2011. This whole ordeal is very depressing and visa recapture bill is only hope for EB community.

In addition, you can also put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario. Please see assumptions below. Please ensure that you enter "User ENTERED" value exactly as shown in table below.

I-140 Conversion Rate

 This data is solely taken from published data on website - http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html ,and is just tabulated and presented here in different format. We have updated our green calculator to include I-140 conversion rate based on this data, Green Calculator, thus will not assume 100% I-140 approval rate for approved PERMs . This conversion rate is only used for calculation for any cut-off dates which are beyond July 2007.  For any priority date which is after or on October of the particular year, calculator will use the percentage approval rate value from the next year, thus assuming PERM approval time of 90 days.
Tabulated list below also considered volume of applications received at NSC and TSC in order to arrive at average I-140 and I-485 approval percentage, and succesively used those values to calculate 'rolling successive percentage'. Green Card calculator will use 'rolling successive average' to arrive at reduced number of applicants before your priority date to calculate estimated wait time. System will recommend I-140 conversion rate for each priority date.
I-140 conversion rate is also an 'USER ENTERED' entry where you can input values in 'Percentage' only. For e.g. If you will assume percentage as '75', entered value should be '0.75' or '75%'.



Multiple PERM Factor
This is still ongoing effort and we are still looking into estimating reduction in demand due to multiple PERMs owned by an indiviudal and his/her spouse. Based on the poll that we have on our website, double filings within a family looks significant factor to estimate demand beyond July 2007 PD. As per our current poll status there are only 220 real PERMs out of 329 filed PERM that will contrubite to demand. This is around factor of 65%.  

System will recommend 'Multiple PERM factor' based on your country and category. Multiple PERM factor is also an 'USER ENTERED' entry where you can input values in 'Percentage' only.

PWMB - PWMB is taken care of in green card calculator. In general PWMB number for a PD month is added to the current inventory for the successive PD month. For e.g. if PWMB for EB3-ROW with PD Sep -2005 is '50' , this number is added in PD Oct-2005 inventory. This is done because that demand will not be realised until specific PD will become current. Please click this to see post that refers PWMB for EB3 category.

For EB2-India and China, PWMB is added to the following inventory assuming PD in coming visa bulletin will move in increments as stated in table below.EW - (Others) - In addition to other category it will aslo calculate number for applicants for EW (Others) category. Due to complication in calculation it cannot estimate wait time as of now. We will update it going forward.
It is assumed that 7% of the total annual EB Visa Numbers (140,000) are allocated to each of the four retrogressed countries while the remaining 72% visa numbers are available to the Rest of the World. Visa numbers allotment for EB4 and EB5 are considered separately.

F.A.Q. - Why GC calculator is estimating more wait time compared to last one?
a) Our OLD calculator was predicting PERM distribution of 50:50 between EB2 and EB3, which is not true for most of the categories. This ratio has changed when analyzing as per PWD data. General trend is posted above.

b) Earlier annual PERM data was NOT distributed as per Priority Date but was simply divided among each month assuming equal applications number. This is not true. Number of applications for each category is increased for PD 2008 and PD 2009 due to recent approvals of audit cases. Data now is strictly divided as per Priority date (with error of +/- 5 days). For each PERM approval family size is assumed 2.25. There may be many individuals with late PD 2010-PD 2011 who are single but by the time they will get green card, annual family size may increase.

c) Wait time has tremendously increased due to addition of People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007 fiasco. These numbers are significant for each country and category. See our earlier post regarding PWMB. For example numbers considering dependents are for EB3-ROW is 13000, and for EB2-I is 9500. These data are added to respective inventory and number of application prior 2007 has increased.

Factors a), b) and c) are major reason for seeing this whole big difference. But now GC calculator is real representation of wait time for PDs post July 2007.

d) Post PD 2007, when calculating some of the PERM approvals, some of the porting application may be repeated but again as most of us think upgrade demand is small, it should not be large factor.

Total Visa Available Annually - We assume that entire annual limit is available to each category as per statutory limit, but this may not be true as some of the countries do end up getting more than 7% visas than annual limit and other's less. In such case user can input number of visas , a country and a category is receiving as per current trend. Calculator assumes annual limit but this field is User ENTERED.

Consular Processing demand (CP) - System automatically assumes CP demand for different country and category. Users can also assume this demand as '0' or enter specific percentage (%). This field is User ENTERED.

PD becoming 'CURRENT' and "Green Card in Hand" time - System calculates time from today when you can expect to become current. In addition to this you can input current USCIS processing time to estimate "Green Card in hand" time. In general it is recommended that if your I-485 case is pre-adjudicated assume 1 month and if new filing assume 4-8 months. This field is User ENTERED.

Green Card Calculator was also fixed to remove some of the demand that is prior to current priority cut-off dates from the released inventory. One bug in the spillover calculation was also as pointed by one user.

Note : This calculator is estimating wait time assuming DOS will not make dates current for any category (unlikely). These are on average generic wait time, and actual time may vary on case to case basis.

FOR EB2-India and China - Please enter TOTAL Spillover EB2-IC will receive. System recommends Total Spillover based on above spillover assumptions.



Note: To be able to use this feature you must be running "Excel 2003 or later and Internet Explorer" or "Excel 2010 and Firefox". Works better with Internet Explorer.




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424 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 424   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

Great tool! Wondering if you are able to update the calculator per the last few months movements? As of now, the results are as of Jan 5th. Thanks

CM said...

@Anonymous -Great tool! Wondering if you are able to update the calculator per the last few months movements? As of now, the results are as of Jan 5th. Thanks

Thanks. No I have not updated this tool since January 5th. This tool calculate based on inventory report and not based on Demand Data. I would update it as and when I-485 inventory report is updated.

Anonymous said...

It's a very good tool..I really liked it and forwarded to my colleagues and they also very impressed this blog..Keep going my dear friend..Hope all your predictions go right and I get my GC in next years -PD Aug-10 -EB2I

SUSISHRI said...

The years and months show to get green card is from today or from the PD? I mean, for me it shows 9 years 8 months,so I have to wait for 9 more years?

CM said...

Thank you for your kind words : ) @Anonymous - It's a very good tool..I really liked it and forwarded to my colleagues and they also very impressed this blog..Keep going my dear friend..Hope all your predictions go right and I get my GC in next years -PD Aug-10 -EB2I

CM said...

To @SUSISHRI - Years and month are from January 5th 2011 and not from your PD. I do not know your PD, country of chargeability and category but if it shows 9 years in the calculator, it will take that much time unless unusual happens and your country and category receives enough unused visa numbers (spillover) from other categories
every year. For every category to advance rapidly, receiving spillover is most essential.

How spillover works?
Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed => EB3 ROW => EB3 Retrogressed.

SUSISHRI said...

Thanks a lot for your response...My PD is June 2004/EB3/India. Now, I guess I should convert to EB2, no other go. Any idea how much it cost to apply EB2 and port it (my company won't pay) and any good attorney with reasonable fees?

Thanks again for your quick response!

CM said...

To SUSISHRI :

Please note that EB3 to EB2 porting depends on job description and you cannot use any experience gained at current employer. If you planning to port, please do it by switching jobs. You will be in less trouble. It makes sense to port anyday if you think you would qualify for better EB2 job. I am not sure about any good lawyers. Usually they would charge you $7000-$8000 to file a green card. Please be aware you are not allowed to pay for any cost associated with PERM.

On a side note, I do not think that it will take you 9 years 8 months to get green card. With change in spillover rule there is less likelihood that EB3-I or matter of fact any EB3 category would ever receive spillover in coming years. But best part of yearly EB3 to EB2 porting is that it is happening mostly for EB3-I and any reduction in queue due to porting is an indirect spillover to EB3-I. If we assume that EB3 to EB2 porting is around "3500" for an individuals with PD 2002 to PD June 2004, your PD will be current in 4 years as per the calculator (enter porting numbers for spillover in the calculator). So things may not be that dark for EB3-I after all due to EB3 to EB2 porting.

SUSISHRI said...

Thanks for the detailed reply...apprciated. Your tool is one of the best I ever seen.

Meanwhile,I talked to one of the attorney yesterday (Ron Gotcher), he charges $4400 total for EB2 filing/porting, let me see how it goes.

CM said...

Ron Gotcher is a good lawyer. I will go with him. He knows his stuff well.

@SUSISHRI

Anonymous said...

This is a Great tool. Thanks a Lot for taking the time to do it. I am EB3 ROW OCT10. Although it may take about 5 years- I am patient. As long as my H1b is valid and I can travel I'm ok.
Does anyone know of a site where one can learn/ find out about spillovers? I know they are very unlikely for my category but I'd still like to understand the details.
As a side note, do you think things will move a bit faster once they start receiving cases with PD of late 2008 or 2009. Considering the economy and how many companies were not hiring/sponsoring?
Am I crazy in thinking so or does it make sense in some level? thoughts...

CM said...

Here is quick note on how spillover works. Any unused visa will first fall across horizontally and then fall down to next category starting with worldwide.

How spillover works?

Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed => EB3 ROW => EB3-Retrogressed.

You are right; number of filings with PD 2008 and 2009 should be less and dates should move quickly. Although PERM data suggests that still ample cases were filed if not high.

Anonymous said...

This is a Great tool. Thanks a Lot for taking the time to do it. I am EB3 ROW OCT10. Although it may take about 5 years- I am patient. As long as my H1b is valid and I can travel I'm ok.
Does anyone know of a site where one can learn/ find out about spillovers? I know they are very unlikely for my category but I'd still like to understand the details.
As a side note, do you think things will move a bit faster once they start receiving cases with PD of late 2008 or 2009. Considering the economy and how many companies were not hiring/sponsoring?
Am I crazy in thinking so or does it make sense in some level? thoughts...

Anonymous said...

Thanks for an excellent tool ! Wondering if time calculated is actual time one has to wait for filing I-485 or if it is total time to have green card in one's hand? Thanks.

CM said...

Good question. It actually calculates wait time for filing I-485. Add 4 months to receive green card.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for an excellent tool ! Wondering if time calculated is actual time one has to wait for filing I-485 or if it is total time to have green card in one's hand? Thanks.

neha said...

Thank you for an excellent source of information about immigration. My friend and I always visit this website for any information required.

My priority date is January 2010 and I applied under EB2 category. I am from India. Please let me know when will u be able to apply for my I-485.

Also the date calculated by the calculator is from the day we applied for green card or the day when we calculated it.

Thanks and Regards

CM said...

@neha

Thank you for vising our website and we hope that we will be able to provide as much information as we can on your immigration issues.

EB2-I January 2010 can be current somewhere around 4-5 years as long as EB2-I will continue to receive at least 10,000 spillover each year.

This calculator calculates dates from 5th January 2011. Cheers.

Anonymous said...

This is best website on immigration .I visit this website almost everyday to see any update or news.I have PD of Jan 2008.When I can expect it to be current.Thanks a lot for such excellent website.

CM said...

Which category and country?

I am glad you like our website. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

This is best website on immigration .I visit this website almost everyday to see any update or news.I have PD of Jan 2008.When I can expect it to be current.Thanks a lot for such excellent website.

Anonymous said...

My priority date is January 2008, I'm EB3 ROW. I Could you please tell me when I can expect it to be current? Thank you!

CM said...

You should be current somewhere around January 2013.

Anonymous said...

My priority date is January 2008, I'm EB3 ROW. I Could you please tell me when I can expect it to be current? Thank you!

Anonymous said...

hello! i'm so glad i discovered your site. i try to visit as often as i can. can you please tell me when do you expect my pd to be current. i'm eb3, philippines, november 25, 2006.

it estimates 2 years and 6 mos in the calculator but i just have no idea how it will be with any kind of spill over help or based on a more recent demand data. thank you so much

Anonymous said...

Hi,
My PD is 01/31/2007 EB2-I, can you please tell me when will be my PD will become current.

Thanks

CM said...

Thank you so much for visiting our blog. We hope we will be helpful in this journey of yours.

Calculation of 2 years and 6 month from Jan, 2011 is almost accurate. We do not expect EB3-P to get any spillover in coming years. Only help will be if some folks from Philippines with PD before yours would plan to port from EB3 to EB2. Good Luck.



Anonymous said...

hello! i'm so glad i discovered your site. i try to visit as often as i can. can you please tell me when do you expect my pd to be current. i'm eb3, philippines, november 25, 2006.

it estimates 2 years and 6 mos in the calculator but i just have no idea how it will be with any kind of spill over help or based on a more recent demand data. thank you so much

CM said...

So far chances for Sep 2011 are bright. We would know more in month of July.

Anonymous said...

Hi,
My PD is 01/31/2007 EB2-I, can you please tell me when will be my PD will become current.

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Awesome site! This is a great resource for those of us waiting on PDs becoming current.

May you kindly provide me with a guess on when I'll become current? I'm EB3 RoW with a priority date of 10/2/2006.

Thanks!

Manoj said...

Thanks CM I am EB2 India with PD of Jan 8 2008

CM said...

Thank you for liking our site. I think you can be current by May 2012. Good Luck.

Anonymous said...
Awesome site! This is a great resource for those of us waiting on PDs becoming current.

May you kindly provide me with a guess on when I'll become current? I'm EB3 RoW with a priority date of 10/2/2006.

Thanks!

CM said...

@Manoj We think you can be current in July 2012. Good Luck.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,
How about May 8 2008 EB2 India? Thanks and good job!

Anonymous said...

Hi,

I recently came across your website and have been a regular visitor since then. It is very fascinating analysis / information.

I am trying to guesstimate when my EB2-I PD June 2007 is likely to be current. I would like to know if you have historic spillover numbers that were available to EB2-I over the past few years. You mentioned 10,000 spillovers per year in one of your responses. Is this a realistic assumption to make?

Thank you
TR

CM said...

EB2-I May 2008 would not be current until FY 2013 in light of newly added demand for EB2-IC due to PWMB. We are doing some update on GC calculator and Predictions. I would be able to answer you in detail in two-three days.

Anonymous said...
Hello CM,
How about May 8 2008 EB2 India? Thanks and good job!

CM said...

@TR Thank you for visiting our website. We hope we would be able to help you throught the GC process.

Please see our predictions for EB2-IC that will be updated by end of today. I will be able to answer more in next few days. Thanks.

KS said...

Hello CM,
Your site is simply superb!!.Very very useful for everyone like me who has thousands of questions and keep searching for answers with a long wait ahead.I do have the same exact questions like others , MY pd is March 2008 with EB2 India as category and country respectively.Would be great if you can let me know when apprx i would get my I-485 to be filed and my gc dates too .Thanks in advance!.Again Excellent work please keep it going :).

thanks,
KS

CM said...

@KS As for now at least until FY 2013. We will know more based on current fiscal year progress.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM a great site, very informative. My PD is ROW EB3 January 2007 any ideas when I will be current. With kindest regards and many thanks.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, very useful site. Can you tell how much Spilover we should usually expect each or this year to EB2- India?
My PD is Nov 2008.

KS said...

Thanks a lot CM.Hope some miracle happens and becomes before 2013 :).I have a small suggestion;If you can add another column about the spillover for past and predicted spill over for the current year ; for every year it would be even great as not everyone can calculate the spillover correctly.The column will be so useful that everyone like me will stop asking you for the predictions and do it ourselves :).Again gr8 site keep it going.

Thanks,
KS.

CM said...

Thank you for kind words. I would think somewhere around May-July 2012. Good Luck.


Anonymous said...

Hi CM a great site, very informative. My PD is ROW EB3 January 2007 any ideas when I will be current. With kindest regards and many thanks.

CM said...

For this year, I would expect some where around 17K-24K for this year for EB2I only. Going forward I will only assume 10,000 as we expect demand to increase as next year rolls in. Economy is really picking up.


Anonymous said...

Hi CM, very useful site. Can you tell how much Spilover we should usually expect each or this year to EB2- India?
My PD is Nov 2008.

CM said...

@KS Thank you for the suggestion, KS. We are currently working on this. We will update GC calc in coming weeks. Cheers.

Anonymous said...

Hello,
I have been checking in your website everyday since i discovered it and am finding the information helpful and resourceful. Thank you for taking the time to do this. I have been living in the USA since 1999 and have been through many H1 B visas and am now waiting for my PD to become currant and don't think I can wait much longer. My PD is May 2009 I am from the UK and am in the EB3 category. What are the chances that there will be enough spill over in the next few months to get my GC in the next year? Also, once the GC does come through will I still have to work for my current employer or can I start to look for other employment opportunities?

Anonymous said...

Hello,
My PD is Oct 2006 (EB2). How long do you think it will take for my PD to be current? Thank you!!

KS said...

Hi CM,

Thanks a lot for the reply and update.Sure, will be looking forward for the same :).

thanks,
KS.

Debora momanyi said...

hey 'i just arrived from my country and wait for my greencard coul you please help me

Anonymous said...

CM, great tool for sure. It helps all of us waiting for PD to become current get an idea of how long it will take until then. My PD is Dec-2008. If I go home now can I still use this PD when it becomes current? Or it gets invalidated because I quit working to go home? I will appreciate any comments. Thanks!

CM said...

I am sorry that you have to wait so long and you are still waiting. This whole Employment based immigration needs overhaul. We need to recapture unused waste visa numbers from past years.

EB3-ROW May 2009 will not be current for next 2 years at least. Spillover rule has changed and most of the spillover now first go to EB2-India and China before it is available for EB3-ROW. So EB3-ROW will be using it's own quota for a while with no help from spillover.

Once you will receive GC, you should work for sponsoring company for at least 6 months before looking for change.


Anonymous said...

Hello,
I have been checking in your website everyday since i discovered it and am finding the information helpful and resourceful. Thank you for taking the time to do this. I have been living in the USA since 1999 and have been through many H1 B visas and am now waiting for my PD to become currant and don't think I can wait much longer. My PD is May 2009 I am from the UK and am in the EB3 category. What are the chances that there will be enough spill over in the next few months to get my GC in the next year? Also, once the GC does come through will I still have to work for my current employer or can I start to look for other employment opportunities?

CM said...

@Debora momanyi You need help regarding what? If it is in our bounds we can help you.

CM said...

It will not be invalidated as long as your I-140 is approved. After I-140 is approved, work for your employer for atleast 6 months. If you will go home, then you can come back and use same PD based on new job after filing new PERM and I-140. In other case if your employer is willing to hire you again, you can file AOS as CP with NVC.

Anonymous said...

CM, great tool for sure. It helps all of us waiting for PD to become current get an idea of how long it will take until then. My PD is Dec-2008. If I go home now can I still use this PD when it becomes current? Or it gets invalidated because I quit working to go home? I will appreciate any comments. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Hi CM
Great tool! My pd is nov 2008 . Any idea when it would become current ( passimistic/optimistic)
I apprectiate your service to eb community. May God bless you!

CM said...

Can you please tell us about your country of chargeability and category? Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM
Great tool! My pd is nov 2008 . Any idea when it would become current ( passimistic/optimistic)
I apprectiate your service to eb community. May God bless you!

Anonymous said...

I am so sorry CM . It is Eb2 india
Thanks again

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, you mentioned "EB3-ROW will be using it's own quota for a while with no help from spillover" in one of your response above, does this mean that EB3-ROW or EB3-PHIL will still get its quota of 7% (per country limit for all FB and EB categories) and spillover is just a relief or additional visa to retrogressed countries?

gady said...

Hi CM,
My pd is Nov 2008 and EB3-ROW. Any idea when will my case gonna be current? Thanks alot for your time.GADY

CM said...

Best case will be Sep 2012 and worst case will be 2013. Lets hope for the best. Good Luck.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM
Great tool! My pd is nov 2008 . Any idea when it would become current ( passimistic/optimistic)
I apprectiate your service to eb community. May God bless you

CM said...

It is not like that. Spillover is not relief to retrogressed countries. Spillover are supposed to be used systematically to reduce backlog, but they are distributed first consumed by upper categories and then all unused numbers trickle down to the successive lower categories. Please see quick note on spillover below:

Any unused visa will first fall across horizontally and then fall down to next category starting with worldwide.

How spillover works?

Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => Unused Eb1 and EB2-ROW => EB2 Retrogressed => Unused EB2 => EB3 ROW => EB3-Retrogressed.

So for EB3 ROW to receive any spillover, first EB2 category has to get current.


Anonymous said...

Hi CM, you mentioned "EB3-ROW will be using it's own quota for a while with no help from spillover" in one of your response above, does this mean that EB3-ROW or EB3-PHIL will still get its quota of 7% (per country limit for all FB and EB categories) and spillover is just a relief or additional visa to retrogressed countries?

CM said...

@gady You should be current somewhere around July 2013. Good Luck.

Anonymous said...

CM,

Taking GADY's (ROW, EB3, Nov-2008) case as an example, the calculator "estimates" that the PD will be current in TWO years and ONE month from Jan-05-11. That is, around FEB of 2013. However, you state that the PD will be current "somewhere around July 2013". Is there a reason for this discrepancy? I realize it's just an estimate, but, I was wondering if you used different data/tool when considering GADYS's case.

Thanks in advance for your time and consideration.

Anonymous said...

CM,

Thanks for your response about my question about retaining PD with approved I-140. Let me ask you this. My I-140 was filed for consular processing. I have read somewhere that my application will be sent to the american embassy in my country where it will await for my PD to become current. At that time I will be contacted to come for an interview. Do you know anything about it?

I know for sure I will not need to file and AOS since I'll be outside the US. So what will the next step actually be?

I will appreciate any comments in advance.

Merlo.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Great work and very helpful for me and others too to keep track of what is going on with GC process.

My PD is Mar 2008 EB2-India and when this will turn to current.

Anonymous said...

@CM
Thanks CM, anyway, can a retrogressed country, say India or China who have tremendous number of EB2 applicants, get all the spillover from EB4, EB5 and EB1 and exceed the per country limit of 7%?

CM said...

I am aware that there is discrepancy among what gc calculator is predicting and what I am saying. The only reason to do that is GC calculator is assuming 28,800 visa for ROW solely based on I-485 inventory, whereas in actuality we would constantly see hidden demand due to CP cases and other transfer of cases from LO to NSC in addition to inventory data. So instead of queue getting reduced every month by 28,800/12 = 2400 visa numbers, we are seeing reduction only by 1500-2000. Hence discrepancy in gc calculator and my personal prediction.



Anonymous said...

CM,

Taking GADY's (ROW, EB3, Nov-2008) case as an example, the calculator "estimates" that the PD will be current in TWO years and ONE month from Jan-05-11. That is, around FEB of 2013. However, you state that the PD will be current "somewhere around July 2013". Is there a reason for this discrepancy? I realize it's just an estimate, but, I was wondering if you used different data/tool when considering GADYS's case.

Thanks in advance for your time and consideration.

CM said...

What you mentioned in your first paragraph is exactly that is expected for any CP case. All you have to do is wait for your PD to be current. Just make sure that all your documents are complete at local NVC. This way you can be 'documentarily qualified'. For you to receive an interview after getting current, it is important that you are 'documentarily qualified' at that time. Cheers.


Anonymous said...

CM,

Thanks for your response about my question about retaining PD with approved I-140. Let me ask you this. My I-140 was filed for consular processing. I have read somewhere that my application will be sent to the american embassy in my country where it will await for my PD to become current. At that time I will be contacted to come for an interview. Do you know anything about it?

I know for sure I will not need to file and AOS since I'll be outside the US. So what will the next step actually be?

I will appreciate any comments in advance.

Merlo.

CM said...

Last quarter next year is something you should look out for.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Great work and very helpful for me and others too to keep track of what is going on with GC process.

My PD is Mar 2008 EB2-India and when this will turn to current.

CM said...

There will be no annual limit or 7% country limit in such case. Spillover is strictly used to reduce backlog on basis of 'First In First Out' principle within a category regardless of country.

"As per INA Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular Employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual “per-country” limit."



Anonymous said...

@CM
Thanks CM, anyway, can a retrogressed country, say India or China who have tremendous number of EB2 applicants, get all the spillover from EB4, EB5 and EB1 and exceed the per country limit of 7%?

gady said...

Hi CM,

In this case, do you advice me to apply from EB2? Restart from the beginning? I don't want to stay in this job and open my biz here but in this scenario I can't. Any advice? I am with H1B.
Cheers,GADY

CM said...

@gady
Gady, is your I-140 from EB3 petition approved? If yes then I would encourage you to file in EB2 for a new job. Don't even think twice. Anyone who is in EB3 who can get a job that qualifies him/her in EB2 should pursue it. In order to recapture PD all you need is an approved I-140 from previous company. In case of EB2-ROW, since it is current now I will not even bother to recapture PD. Capturing PD is advisable in case previously submitted I-485 is pending.

gady said...

Dear CM,

Yes my I-140 approved June 2009 and I am tired of waiting since then.
What if the current company apply again but this time EB2?
Thanks million for your help.
Cheers,G

CM said...

@gady For same company job has to be different by 50% and you cannot use any experience gained at same company. In my honest opinion, I would not try to file a new EB2 with same company. Please see "I-140" under categories for some of the articles on this.

gady said...

Cheers CM

Anonymous said...

CM,

Thanks for your time we all appreciate it. Let me ask you the following:

1. The reduction in visas for ROW, EB3 from 2400/month to somewhere between 1500 and 2000 is only temporary? This reduction plus the elimination of spillover for this category is going to affect a lot of people, including myself :(.

2. Where can I find whether I'm "documentarily qualified" or not? Is there a checklist I can use as a reference? Also by the time the consulate contacts me for an interview, do I need to have a job offer ready?

Thanks a lot in advance.

Merlo

Anonymous said...

Hi CM -

Great site and GC tool. Apreciate it very much. I have a rather basic question but getting different answers, so like to see what you think about it. The question is what happens once the PD moved to August 2007 will they make EB2 I and C current and retrogress after everyone files 485 depending on the demand data? or will they be cautious and move only so many months to gauge the demand. But technically they should make it current once they complete the current backlog correct? please through some light on this. Looking forward for your perspective.

Thanks
Sri

Anonymous said...

I know it is very basic question but can you tell be difference between EB2 I and C?

Anonymous said...

EB2 I and C are EB2-India and China respectively. In general
ROW = Rest of World excluding listed below
C- China
I-India
M - Mexico
P - Philippines

CM said...

@Merlo

1. Yes it is temporary for now but that will move gc calculator predictions by 3-5 months.

2. In order to be Documentarily qualified you have to fill DS-230 form. As of now you do not have to do anything. Your I-140 should be sent to National Visa Center (NVC). Once received, the NVC will assign a case number for the petition. When your priority date meets the most recent qualifying date, the NVC will send the Choice of Address and Agent form to the applicant, if an attorney or agent will be used. (NOTE: If you already have an attorney, the NVC will not send you this form.) NVC will begin pre-processing the your case by providing you with instructions to submit the appropriate fees. After the appropriate fees are paid, the NVC will request that the you submit the necessary immigrant visa documents so that you can be considered "documentarily qualified". Usually you will submit submit documents with Form DS-230.

In general, the following documents are required:

* Passport(s) valid for 60 days beyond the expiration date printed on the immigrant visa
* Application for Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration, Form DS-230, both Part I and Part II, or Online Immigrant Visa Application and Registration, Form DS-260 (NOTE: Form DS-260 is a new online application form. It is currently in use for immigrant visa applicants whose cases meet certain criteria. Review Online Immigrant Visa Forms to learn whether you must complete the online DS-260 form.)
* Two (2) 2x2 photographs. See the required photo format explained in Photograph Requirements.
* Civil Documents for the applicant. See Documents the Applicant Must Submit for more specific information about documentation requirements, including information on which documents may need to be translated. The consular officer may ask for more information during your visa interview. If not already submitted to the NVC, bring clear, legible photocopies of civil documents, such as birth and marriage certificates, and any required translations to your immigrant visa interview. Original documents and translations can then be returned to you.
* Financial Support – At your immigrant visa interview, you must demonstrate to the consular officer that you will not become a public charge in the United States. (NOTE: For applicants where a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident (LPR) relative filed the Form I-140 petition or where such a relative has a significant ownership interest in the entity that filed the petition, that relative must complete Form I-864, Affidavit of Support Under Section 213A of the Act, on behalf of the applicant.)
* Completed Medical Examination Forms – These are provided by the panel physician after you have completed your medical examination and vaccinations (see below).

Visa Interview

Once the NVC determines the file is complete with all the required documents, they schedule the applicant’s interview appointment. NVC then sends the file, containing the applicant’s petition and the documents listed above, to the U.S. embassy or consulate where the applicant will be interviewed for a visa. The applicant, attorney, and third-party agent, if applicable, will receive appointment emails, or letters (if no email address is available), containing the date and time of the applicant's visa interview along with instructions, including guidance for obtaining a medical examination.

CM said...

@Sri
Technically if there is no demand they should amke it current. But if you check our recent post on how cut-off date is determined, you will see that DOS in general use estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand. So from past history if they know that in general for each PD month India has 1500-3000 demand then they can gamble moving dates by few months and retrogressing them until they will have full control on the situation. Here full control means change in rule to allow pre-registering of I-485.

But more I think about it more I feel they have to make dates current for small time because it is not India alone that will use spillover but China as well. In general China has different consumption rate per month compared to India. So at the end of the year after SO, India and China will have to share same cut-off date. I do not think DOS can handle such complex calculations and assumption game. They may have no choice but to make it current for a while. But again after getting criticized for July 2007 fiasco, DOS has become more critical. In any case I feel dates might not reach July 2007 this year. SO DOS might get one more year to think about it.

Anonymous said...

@CM

CM, Thanks a lot. You're the best! God bless you...

Anonymous said...

Hi!

I received a notice (2007) from the atty of my petitioner that they have received my visa fee bill already and paid it, why until now (2011) i still have not received my packet 3, my pd is january 2007 eb3 phils.

thanks

Anonymous said...

Great Tool and Superb Site, Appreaciate your work - keep it up!
My PD is Oct 2007 EB2-India and when this will turn to current for me?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
Can someone file for Green card when visa's are unavailable for that month. I am asking since in August 2007 and few other months visa's were unavailable for EB2-I. And if person cannot file then his means that month should not be counted in our calculation

CM said...

I will call NVC and check status on your case. Just make sure you do not owe them anything. You should have received packet 3 by now. One reason can be NVC is just waiting to send packet when they think your dates are close i.e. 8-9 months before getting current. But in any xase I will email them or call them.

Anonymous said...

Hi!

I received a notice (2007) from the atty of my petitioner that they have received my visa fee bill already and paid it, why until now (2011) i still have not received my packet 3, my pd is january 2007 eb3 phils.

thanks

CM said...

Somewhere in FY 2012, first quarter or last quarter is yet to be seen. It depends upon how dates will move in these last 3 month. Receiving NVC emails suggests that you getting current in FY 2012 is high.

Anonymous said...

Great Tool and Superb Site, Appreaciate your work - keep it up!
My PD is Oct 2007 EB2-India and when this will turn to current for me?

CM said...

Individual cannot file green card when visa are unavailable even if their PD was current in earlier month.

In our calculations we are only looking for months from Jan 5, 2011 onwards. Yes if visas are not available then that month should not be counted in the calculations. But as DOS has got better and better with demand data estimation and progressing dates we should see less of these 'U' in coming bulletins.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
Can someone file for Green card when visa's are unavailable for that month. I am asking since in August 2007 and few other months visa's were unavailable for EB2-I. And if person cannot file then his means that month should not be counted in our calculation

Anonymous said...

Hi there CM,


When are you going to update your calculator? Ty!

Anonymous said...

It is just easy as my calculation I have a EB3 India PD January 2009.
Each petition from India is accompanied with Petitioner, spouse and minimum 2 children. so we should allocate 4 visas for each petition, thus

2800/4=700

Before me there are 87000 cases

87000/700= 125 years.(this is with out spill over)

U have no right to expect spill over since EB2 India-china and EB3 ROW are ahead of you. Smile and forget your GC.

For us nurses there is no H1b visas.. so realizing its just a DREAM…

Anonymous said...

DEAR NURSES READ THIS AND CHEER UP!!!!!!

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h112-1929

H.R. 1929: To provide relief for the shortage of nurses in the United States, and for other purposes

(a) Increasing Visa Numbers- Section 106 of the American Competitiveness in the Twenty-first Century Act of 2000 (Public Law 106-313; 8 U.S.C. 1153 note) is amended by adding at the end the following:




‘(e) Visa Shortage Relief for Nurses-




‘(1) IN GENERAL- Subject to paragraph (2), for petitions filed any time prior to September 30, 2014, for employment-based immigrants (and their family members accompanying or following to join under section 203(d) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(d))), which are or have been approved based on Schedule A, Group I as defined in section 656.5 of title 20, Code of Federal Regulations, as promulgated by the Secretary of Labor, the numerical limitations set forth in sections 201(d) and 202(a) of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1151(d) and 1152(a)) shall not apply.




‘(2) LIMITATION ON NUMBER OF VISAS- The Secretary of State may not issue more than 20,000 immigrant visa numbers in any one fiscal year (plus any available visa numbers under this paragraph not used during the preceding fiscal year) to principal beneficiaries of petitions pursuant to paragraph (1).




‘(3) EXPEDITED REVIEW- The Secretary of Homeland Security shall provide a process for reviewing and acting upon petitions with respect to immigrants described in paragraph (1) not later than 30 days after the date on which a completed petition has been filed.




‘(f) Fee for Use of Visas Under Subsection (a)-




‘(1) IN GENERAL- The Secretary of Homeland Security shall impose a fee upon each petitioning employer who uses a visa provided under subsection (e) to provide employment for an alien as a professional nurse, except that--




‘(A) such fee shall be in the amount of $1,500 for each such alien nurse (but not for dependents accompanying or following to join who are not professional nurses); and




‘(B) no fee shall be imposed for the use of such visas if the employer demonstrates to the Secretary that--




‘(i) the employer is a health care facility that is located in a county or parish that received individual and public assistance pursuant to Major Disaster Declaration number 1603 or 1607; or




‘(ii) the employer is a health care facility that has been designated as a Health Professional Shortage Area facility by the Secretary of Health and Human Services as defined in section 332 of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 254e).




‘(2) FEE COLLECTION- A fee imposed by the Secretary of Homeland Security pursuant to paragraph (1) shall be collected by the Secretary as a condition of approval of an application for adjustment of status by the beneficiary of a petition or by the Secretary of State as a condition of issuance of a visa to such beneficiary.’.

CM said...

@Anonymous Thank you for sharing this information.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM;

This is a great tool; with the recent inventory data, would be updating this tool soon? Thanks in advance.

Anonymous said...

CM,

Is there any source where you can get to know the actual number of people still waiting for their PD to become current for each year since 2005? (Category EB3-ROW data.)

Thanks,

Merlo

Anonymous said...

CM,
Can you tell us if
PD determined by Demand data or I-485 inventory ?
Is it correct to base calculations of PD movement on Inventory?

As far as i know Inventory has more numbers than demand data, Reason is some of the number didnt go off even though they have been allocated the visa, due to processing. I may be wrong

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

I have just checked updated calculator and I am confused. You told me that I may have my gc in July 2013 but it says 3 years and 11 months according to November,2008 EB3-ROW.
Is there any mistake? Any change?
Thanks,GADY

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

In your previous version of the GC calculator for a ROW-EB3 with a PD Dec-2008, the approximate time to receive a GC was about TWO YEARS. The new version of the calculator however now gives a waiting time of FOUR YEARS! That is a 100% increase with respect to the previous version. Is the new version of the calculator working OK? maybe some bug in there? Will you please comment about it?

Thanks in advance.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

The updated green card calculator made my wait longer, from 4 years and 11 months to 6 years and 2 months. My PD is July 2008 EB3 Philippines. Is this the right calculation or is there something wrong somewhere in the formula?

MS

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Are you sure about the calculations calculated by the calculator. The PD are jumping more than expected this year 2011. The calculator went from 2.5 years to 6.5 years...What happened? My PD is january 2010 EB2 India

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Love your work. I realize how difficult it is to account for everything. I commented previously about CP cases versus LO returns and you made a very kind response.

In EB3, Mexico and Philippines regularly use more visas than the theoretical 7% limit within EB3 (2,803 at the minimum allocation).

For example, M-P received 4,496 visas above 7% in FY2009 and 5,359 extra visas in FY2010.

As well as affecting M_P themselves, this has an effect on EB3-ROW, because their theoretical allocation is reduced as a result.

For example, ROW received 26,295 visas in FY2009 and only 24,328 in FY2010 versus the 29,128 and 31,324 they might otherwise have received.

It might be worth mentioning in the explanatory text, because an EB3-ROW applicant might have to enter a negative spillover amount to get an accurate picture.

It would be helpful if the tool displayed the number of yearly visas calculated as a result of the user input.

It is not clear whether your figures include CP cases. In EB2, CP is very low and can probably be ignored for simplicity. Each of the Countries in EB3 have very different CP rates and from the NVC data, Philippines has a huge number in the period up to 2009/2010 (45k). I realize that beyond the current backlog, the PERM figures represent both CP and AOS. Prior to that, the Inventory data alone does not. Apologies if you have covered this in a previous posting and I have missed it.

These are genuine questions, not criticism. You have an almost impossible task incorporating all the variables into a simple to use tool. I salute your efforts.

Thanks for taking the time to read this.

tieyuli said...

Perm number of China:
FY2007 - 5905
FY2008 - 4134
FY2009 - 2231
FY2010 - 2385
By the Eb2/3 ration 46:54 given here, after FY2007, the demand of FY08 and FY09 total is 6588. The calculator gives around 8181. Why there is a gap?

Anonymous said...

My wait period for EB2-I (Nov 2008) went from 2 year 6 months to 4 Years 7 months with 15000 spill over, I think the calculator is not correct. Also previously it showed applicant ahead of me was 49000 and now it is showing 81000.
As per the current pace EB2-I should be current by 2013 (or even may be in 2012 Sep)

CM said...

Dear Friends –
I see lot of comments that is posted about the newly released Green Calculator and there is a common concern that it may be calculating estimations wrong. I have limited access to my blog from work and I would reply to everyone is detail later.

As per my knowledge, green card calculator is predicting estimation pretty correct. I understand some years and estimation has increased tremendously for some categories with respect to OLD Green Card calculator. Reason for this is explained below.

a) Our OLD calculator was predicting PERM distribution of 50:50 between EB2 and EB3, which is not true for most of the categories. This ratio has changed when analyzing as per PWD data. General trend is posted above.

b) Earlier annual PERM data was NOT distributed as per Priority Date but was simply divided among each month assuming equal applications number. This is not true. Number of applications for each category is increased for PD 2008 and PD 2009 due to recent approvals of audit cases. Data now is strictly divided as per Priority date (with error of +/- 5 days). For each PERM approval family size is assumed 2.25. There may be many individuals with late PD 2010-PD 2011 who are single but by the time they will get green card, annual family size may increase.

c) Wait time has tremendously increased due to addition of People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007 fiasco. These numbers are significant for each country and category. See our earlier post regarding PWMB. For example numbers considering dependents are for EB3-ROW is 13000, and for EB2-I is 9500. These data is added to respective inventory and number of application prior 2007 has increased

Factors a), b) and c) are major reason for seeing this whole big difference. But now GC calculator is real representation of wait time for PDs post July 2007.

d) Post PD 2007, when calculating some of the PERM approvals, some of the porting application may be repeated but again as most of us think upgrade demand is small, it should not be large factor.

Things that as still missing are –
a) Current inventory released by USCIS does not account for visa numbers that will be use starting June 01. We need to correct this. For example removing (12000 application for EB2-I or 1575 applications for EB3-ROW and so on)

b) We have not considered CP cases. In general they are small around 5% for EB2-IC and 15% for EB3-ROW but huge for EB3-C,M,P [as pointed by one of our astute reader (will start calling you that – appreciate you sharing your knowledge)]

There may be so many things that I have tried to include in this tool but it is getting more and more towards reality and estimating correct wait time. I have tried to put forth my best efforts.

For EB2-IC it still does not mean it cannot get current in FY 2011 but it will total depends upon how dates will progress in next 2-3 months and whether PWMB will be able to use visa numbers. Answer si may be not, it will not consume PWMB. But in general Green Card in hand time is huge for EB2-IC and EB3-IC.

Anonymous said...

Great tool. Thanks a lot for your contribution to this community.

I'm sure there are other unforeseen factors that will contribute to a slight (and in some cases heavy) mismatch. Overall, I can't think of any other way than to follow your blog and calculator to get an finer understanding of where I stand.

As always, individuals would know more about their case and situation than a generic tool like this calculator. So anything that you find using this calculator would have to be taken with a grain of salt. In my case, the calculator matches my prediction.

Quick question: Do you also account for the time it takes to process I-485 once the priority date becomes current? Or do you only mean to say "how long it takes to have one's date current"?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
Don't take me wrong but then also above explanation doesn't sound correct. My PD is Nov 2008 (EB2-I). As per calculator now it will take 4 year 7 month with 15000 spill over. And It is assumed that dates will move to July 2007 in visa bulletin of Sep 2011. And as per my knowledge it won't retrogress in October 2011 (if it move to July 2011 only), Then how it can take 4 years and 7 month.

Anonymous said...

I meant July 2007 in statement ......
And as per my knowledge it won't retrogress in October 2011 (if it move to July 2007 only), Then how it can take 4 years and 7 month.

KS said...

Hello CM,
Thanks a lot for the update and upgrade of the tool.Was really waiting for it.However I have couple of questions.Earlier with the Jan 2011 of pending I-485 update my waiting time was 1 yr and 5 months;whereas now my waiting time is said to be 3 yrs and 2 months.I do understand the PWMB has been added in this inventory as against the previous one, still with all the calculations as per the EB2 spill over article in the blog we would go beyond June 2007 before FY 2011. I am just confused about this difference.Do you think there may be some mis-calculation some where;Please help me out as I know there are so many people like me who feel better looking @ your blog's and calculations who are clueless with the current scenario of backlogs.And also the expected spill over tab where the user can enter the data there seems to be a problem because of the excel rendering can you please check on that.Thanks a lot for everything so far.My PD is March 2008 wwith EB2 category and India as the chargeability please do let me know the waiting time with the current improvement in the spill over.And also is the small window of current a possiblity this year a considerable one? if so how much % realistic it is?.I know I have bombareded you with too much stuff.Will leave with this as of now .Thanks once again and waiting for a reply with my PD wait time :).
Thanks,
KS.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

Thank you for all your hard work and providing us this updated tool. I just have one question regarding the perm applications especially during 2008 and 2009. I know a lot of people had their perm cases struck in audits and few of my friends have had filed multiple perm applications filed on their behalf due to audits and during the course of time the multiple perms got certified. Does considering the perm applications and multiplying with 2.5 factor per family will not extrapolate the future I485 applications since there might be multiple perm approvals for a case?

Anonymous said...

Also one more addition that might also extrapolate the numbers especially for India is if both the spouses have their perms certified which might happen in atleast for 10-15% of India cases I would assume.

CM said...

Updated calculator today to add few other features and information, and fix one bug. This should be complete in all respect for now. Cheers.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
I am great fan of your blogs, but this calculator is not correct as per me. Can you explain me why below scenario is happening: - for EB2-I with spillover of 15500
1) Enter June 2007, Date is current in 4 months
2) Enter July 2007, Date is current in 1 Year and 3 months (i.e. in Sep 2012)
3) Enter October 2007, Date is current in 2 years (July 2013).
Can you explain this, I think you are assuming that PD will be retrogress by 1 year (back) in Oct 2011. Since even if July 2007 doesn't become current in Sep 2011 bulletin, it should become current in May 2012 Bulletin atleast (which is 10 months) and also October 2007 should become current by Sep 2012, which is 1 year and 3 month (and NOT 2 years). Don't you think

Thanks for the Calculator update.

Anonymous said...

CM,

based on the calculator, as time progresses or move forward from the current date GMT i.e. a today date of September 2011. Will the estimated projected time frames remain the same based on becoming current? Hence for a ROW with a Late 2008 PD that has a 3 yr 10 mths est. time as of today will a as of Sept 2011 remain as 3 yr 10 mths??

oms said...

To me now it looks CM has fixed some issues. I think the dates confusing people is due to their estimate of spill-over. The recommended for year is shown 15k for EB2-I, but I believe it is going to be more than that for this year.

Anonymous said...

CM,

Thanks for the explanations on the new GCCalc. I have "tested" it and I have the following questions:

1. I quote you on one of the reasons the new GCCalc yields longer wait times:

"Our OLD calculator was predicting PERM distribution of 50:50 between EB2 and EB3, which is not true for most of the categories. This ratio has changed when analyzing as per PWD data. General trend is posted above."

However, this ratio remains the same for ROW, EB2, EB3, correspondingly shouldn't the wait times for this categories (ROW, EB2, EB3) only change marginally?

2. The data you have used for the 2007 "fiasco" is genuine data or estimated data? The reason I ask this is because for my case ROW, EB3 the number of people ahead of me increased by roughly 100% (59k plus to 119K plus) due to the "fiasco", is this reasonable?

Thanks for your time again.

Merlo

CM said...

I realized spillover was not calculating correctly earlier. Thank you for pointing out. I am sorry but it took me whole day to fix this and to come up with better algorithm and calculation. Spillover is utterly important for EB2-IC for now. Please have a look and see if this makes sense. Since it is difficult for me to bug all PDs please have a look. I will really appreciate your feedback on EB2-IC. For EB2-IC enter TOTAL spillover expected. This is ongoing effort and it will take time for us (you and I) to get perfect. Thanks.


Anonymous said...
Hi CM,
Don't take me wrong but then also above explanation doesn't sound correct. My PD is Nov 2008 (EB2-I). As per calculator now it will take 4 year 7 month with 15000 spill over. And It is assumed that dates will move to July 2007 in visa bulletin of Sep 2011. And as per my knowledge it won't retrogress in October 2011 (if it move to July 2011 only), Then how it can take 4 years and 7 month.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
I am great fan of your blogs, but this calculator is not correct as per me. Can you explain me why below scenario is happening: - for EB2-I with spillover of 15500
1) Enter June 2007, Date is current in 4 months
2) Enter July 2007, Date is current in 1 Year and 3 months (i.e. in Sep 2012)
3) Enter October 2007, Date is current in 2 years (July 2013).
Can you explain this, I think you are assuming that PD will be retrogress by 1 year (back) in Oct 2011. Since even if July 2007 doesn't become current in Sep 2011 bulletin, it should become current in May 2012 Bulletin atleast (which is 10 months) and also October 2007 should become current by Sep 2012, which is 1 year and 3 month (and NOT 2 years). Don't you think

Thanks for the Calculator update.

CM said...

@tieyuli Ratio mentioned is not for all months but for Total EB2 and EB3 demand upto March 2011. 14,200 vs 16,569 (which includes dependents.). Without dependents it is 6,311 vs 7,364.

But anyways those 8181, can you please elaborate what are you referring to? Please make sure you multiply PERM numbers by 2.25. And also realize that there are at least 1344 cases (w/o dependent) with PD in 2008 for EB2-China that was approved in FY2010 and FY 2011 during audit.

CM said...

Thank you for pointing out some good points. Especially on CP demand and as we know on less than annual visa numbers available to EB3-ROW. Based on your keen observations we have added some more features where user can change total annual limits and thus calculate wait time. EB3-M and P can put more than annual limit whilst EB3-ROW has to input less around 24000.

Once again really appreciate your contribution to our blog. THANKS.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Love your work. I realize how difficult it is to account for everything. I commented previously about CP cases versus LO returns and you made a very kind response.

In EB3, Mexico and Philippines regularly use more visas than the theoretical 7% limit within EB3 (2,803 at the minimum allocation).

For example, M-P received 4,496 visas above 7% in FY2009 and 5,359 extra visas in FY2010.

As well as affecting M_P themselves, this has an effect on EB3-ROW, because their theoretical allocation is reduced as a result.

For example, ROW received 26,295 visas in FY2009 and only 24,328 in FY2010 versus the 29,128 and 31,324 they might otherwise have received.

It might be worth mentioning in the explanatory text, because an EB3-ROW applicant might have to enter a negative spillover amount to get an accurate picture.

It would be helpful if the tool displayed the number of yearly visas calculated as a result of the user input.

It is not clear whether your figures include CP cases. In EB2, CP is very low and can probably be ignored for simplicity. Each of the Countries in EB3 have very different CP rates and from the NVC data, Philippines has a huge number in the period up to 2009/2010 (45k). I realize that beyond the current backlog, the PERM figures represent both CP and AOS. Prior to that, the Inventory data alone does not. Apologies if you have covered this in a previous posting and I have missed it.

These are genuine questions, not criticism. You have an almost impossible task incorporating all the variables into a simple to use tool. I salute your efforts.

Thanks for taking the time to read this.

CM said...

You made some excellent points over here but as I mentioned in one of my last comment that I have no basis to use some percentage to nix the data. Starting poll to get some kind of information on this would be a starting point. We could divide it in two polls, one with PD and Double filings and others with Percentage of couples having separate PERMs.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

Thank you for all your hard work and providing us this updated tool. I just have one question regarding the perm applications especially during 2008 and 2009. I know a lot of people had their perm cases struck in audits and few of my friends have had filed multiple perm applications filed on their behalf due to audits and during the course of time the multiple perms got certified. Does considering the perm applications and multiplying with 2.5 factor per family will not extrapolate the future I485 applications since there might be multiple perm approvals for a case?


Anonymous said...

Also one more addition that might also extrapolate the numbers especially for India is if both the spouses have their perms certified which might happen in atleast for 10-15% of India cases I would assume.

Anonymous said...

@CM

Thank you CM for your reply. We really appreciate all your hardwork and the time that you are taking from your personal schedule to contribute to everyone here.

KS said...

Hello CM,

Thanks the lot for all the explanations,responses,updates and corrections.A great tool really!!.So useful for everyone.Thanks again for all the efforts that has been gone into this tool and the blog.Such a big selfless act needs a lot of appreciation from everyone.Thanks a ton!! for everything.

KS.

Anonymous said...

Dear CM,

I really appreciate your efforts and believe your estimates are the closest among all such estimates out there in terms of reliability, accuracy and dynamics. A big "THANK YOU" from the entire non-immigrant coummunity.

I just have one item to point out. You are using the prevailing/actual wage data from DOL to allocate PERM applications between EB2 and EB3. While this is no doubt the best way to approach it, you may also need to keep in mind the Prevailing wage variances depending on the area of the country.

To illustrate, a junior software applications developer with a requirement of BS+3 (EB3 job) in the New Jersey/New York area or the San Francisco bay area may require a wage of 90,000 in Level 2. In contrast, a Senior Project Manager with a requirement of MS + 4 (EB2 job) in east Texas or Mississippi may require a 90,000 wage in Level 4.

I know there is so much you can do but adding a state-wise wage index to your calculations may make your PERM allocation estimates more accurate.

CM said...

@Merlo

Search for USCIS I-485 pending inventory and you can get those numbers. Other than that use PERM data for each year, which is usually posted on DOL website



CM,

Is there any source where you can get to know the actual number of people still waiting for their PD to become current for each year since 2005? (Category EB3-ROW data.)

Thanks,

Merlo

CM said...

PD is strictly determined on basis of demand data. Demand Data tells us how many applications (AOS and CP) are documentarily qualified to allocate visa numbers immediately. Inventory is closest you can get to predict the demand for future. Our recent calculator does not consider any demand in the inventory prior to current PDs in order to predict demand as close to successive demand data.

USCIS cannot allocate visa to a case which is not ready to process or approve. Example, an application under background check is not considered documentarily qualified.

Anonymous said...

CM,
Can you tell us if
PD determined by Demand data or I-485 inventory ?
Is it correct to base calculations of PD movement on Inventory?

As far as i know Inventory has more numbers than demand data, Reason is some of the number didnt go off even though they have been allocated the visa, due to processing. I may be wrong

CM said...

@GADY

Hi GADY - Please see FAQ above -

PERM ratio of 50:50 holds true for demand upto March 2011 in full or total. In between ratio changes a lot especially in 2008, it is almost 65:35. Earlier 13000 PWMB (including dependents) were not considered for EB3-ROW. Right now upto December 2008 from July 2007, Total PERM approved is 25,857 for EB3-ROW. Out of which 12,088 PERMs are approved after CY 2009. You have PERM number and you can assume the family size (we assume 2.25) and do the math to calculate wait time. I am sorry that whole wait time has increased but with time we want to get close to reality. Dividing data as per Priority date was important in this case.

CM said...

@MS That sounds pretty right after segregating PERM data based on PDs.

In background, I am trying to gauge conversion percentage of PERMs into I-140 based on historical data. We can try to get this conversion factor and then try to reduce whole PERM data. As we all know, we cannot expect all PERMs (certified) to get converted into I-485 demand.

CM said...

If you will check our recent fix, you should be current in 3 years from now as long as we will see PERM data converting into I-485 inventory demand.

If EB2-I will ever get current it will for a very small time. After that EB2-I will not be current for very long time. Indian professional these days are not filing in EB3, majority (70%) files in EB2. Even if they will file in EB3, they will soon find ways to port to EB2 after couple of years.

Please note calculator does not assume that DOS will make dates current for a small window, which is reality may not be true. When calculator says you will be current in x years that means PD will be current for that year and will not retrogress from there, unless there is high porting demand.



Anonymous said...

My wait period for EB2-I (Nov 2008) went from 2 year 6 months to 4 Years 7 months with 15000 spill over, I think the calculator is not correct. Also previously it showed applicant ahead of me was 49000 and now it is showing 81000.
As per the current pace EB2-I should be current by 2013 (or even may be in 2012 Sep)

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
Your Calculator is incorrect.
For EB2-I - with 20000 spill over
PD - July 2007 - Application will become current in 1 year and 2 month
PD - November 2007 - Application will become current in 1 year and 0 month
PD - November 2008 - Application will become current in 3 years.

Anonymous said...

I agree with above post, Nov 2007 PD is becoming current before Jul 2007 PD as per calculator and also Between May 2007 and May 2008 there is 2 year of gap to become current, means May 2008 will not reach till August 2013 bulletin.

Anonymous said...

CM,

I just wanted to congratulate you on both your responsiveness and your ability to keep adding additional factors into your calculator, whilst still keeping it usable.

It is truly spectacular work, which you should be rightly proud of.

You have a very understanding family - I certainly understood your comment about balancing your obvious passion for the subject with other needs in your (and their) lives.

Forecasting into the future is a difficult undertaking, especially with the paucity of available data.

I believe your calculator generally gives a realistic result, disappointing as that might be to many people.

The timing for later PDs should become more certain and better defined as time progresses.

I didn't see the comments you removed, but please don't let them undermine the terrific work you are doing.

Best Wishes

Astute Reader (LOL)

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

What are some reasons why total annual limit for a certain category for a certain country is not available? Is it possible that some of the allotted visa are not being used? Is it one reason is that cut-off date of EB3Phil cannot surpass that of EB3row? For example,there are 2800 visas allotted for eb3P,before the end of the fiscal year, only 2000 were used, there are still 800 visas available but PDs cannot move due to the ruling that it should not surpass EB3row.Assuming that what I am thinking is correct,will those unused allotted visa goes into waste?

CM said...

If you are EB2-IC, please ignore the spillvoer part of the calculator for now. It is really acting weird especially for PDs in 2007. I need to go back and reconsider its implementation. Thank you for pointing this out.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Please try this scenario:
India-EB2-October-2007 then leave rest of the fields to default values
Check the "You will current on 1 year 12 months.
then try this :
India-EB2-August-2007 leave rest of the fields to default value.
Check the "You will be current on 1 year 1 month
How is it possible?
I think there is some problem in the tool.
This is a great tool, yesturday when i tried it worked prefectly something changed today - can you please fix this issue.
Everyday i started visiting your sites i like your immediate responses. Great work - Keep it up!

CM said...

Actually last night I changed code for spillover calculation to accomodate spillover less than 12000 for PDs before June 2007 or say for this FY 2011 incase we will not see 19k that we are predicting but that messed all the calculation for Pds in 2007.

Tonight I will revert back to old version that you used yesterday. In the menatime on weekend I will update spillover implementation completely.

If this was in C or C++, I could have used For count and If statement. But in excel I cannot find something like that that will update the counter for each condition that failed.


Anonymous said...
Hi CM,

Please try this scenario:
India-EB2-October-2007 then leave rest of the fields to default values
Check the "You will current on 1 year 12 months.
then try this :
India-EB2-August-2007 leave rest of the fields to default value.
Check the "You will be current on 1 year 1 month
How is it possible?
I think there is some problem in the tool.
This is a great tool, yesturday when i tried it worked prefectly something changed today - can you please fix this issue.
Everyday i started visiting your sites i like your immediate responses. Great work - Keep it up!

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
Great work!! Please update this and let us know. I am really panicking about the wait time. My wife's PD is June 2008 EB2-I and my H1B is running out soon. I visit your site everyday to see updates.
Thanks a lot for the hard work!!

CM said...

Yes, you are right, this is just for guidance so that everyone can plan their life accordingly, and thus do not refrain themselves from changing career in anticipation of getting green card sooner.

Things would change as and when dates will get current and, more and more inventory will come out. This is definitely not the last time that we will be updating our calculator. Calculator will also evolve with time. Next step for me is to find out I-140 conversion factor for different categories and countries. This will help us to nix these PERM numbers.

Thank you for comments on processing time. Considering your comment, we later added information on wait time to get current and wait time to get green card.


Anonymous said...

Great tool. Thanks a lot for your contribution to this community.

I'm sure there are other unforeseen factors that will contribute to a slight (and in some cases heavy) mismatch. Overall, I can't think of any other way than to follow your blog and calculator to get an finer understanding of where I stand.

As always, individuals would know more about their case and situation than a generic tool like this calculator. So anything that you find using this calculator would have to be taken with a grain of salt. In my case, the calculator matches my prediction.

Quick question: Do you also account for the time it takes to process I-485 once the priority date becomes current? Or do you only mean to say "how long it takes to have one's date current"?

CM said...

As of now we have gone back to yesterday's version. I will let you know when spillover code is updated and working well for PDs before July 2007.

Anonymous said...
Hi CM,

This is a great tool, yesturday when i tried it worked prefectly something changed today - can you please fix this issue.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
Great work!! Please update this and let us know. I am really panicking about the wait time. My wife's PD is June 2008 EB2-I and my H1B is running out soon. I visit your site everyday to see updates.
Thanks a lot for the hard work!!

CM said...

@KS, Your wait for PD March 2008 should not be more than 2 years in any case including PWMB.

EB2-IC getting current this have very less chance around 30-50% but still we have not ruled that option out. We will know more with July bulletin.

Thank you for your comment on spillover entry rendering. Please make sure you click box once and then type.

Thank you for being patient with us.

KS said...

Hello CM,
Thanks a lot for the update and upgrade of the tool.Was really waiting for it.However I have couple of questions.Earlier with the Jan 2011 of pending I-485 update my waiting time was 1 yr and 5 months;whereas now my waiting time is said to be 3 yrs and 2 months.I do understand the PWMB has been added in this inventory as against the previous one, still with all the calculations as per the EB2 spill over article in the blog we would go beyond June 2007 before FY 2011. I am just confused about this difference.Do you think there may be some mis-calculation some where;Please help me out as I know there are so many people like me who feel better looking @ your blog's and calculations who are clueless with the current scenario of backlogs.And also the expected spill over tab where the user can enter the data there seems to be a problem because of the excel rendering can you please check on that.Thanks a lot for everything so far.My PD is March 2008 wwith EB2 category and India as the chargeability please do let me know the waiting time with the current improvement in the spill over.And also is the small window of current a possiblity this year a considerable one? if so how much % realistic it is?.I know I have bombareded you with too much stuff.Will leave with this as of now .Thanks once again and waiting for a reply with my PD wait time :).
Thanks,
KS.

CM said...

Wait time will always be calculated from the current date. Taking your example if wait for any PD is 3year 3 month now, on Sep 2011 it will be 3 years.


Anonymous said...

CM,

based on the calculator, as time progresses or move forward from the current date GMT i.e. a today date of September 2011. Will the estimated projected time frames remain the same based on becoming current? Hence for a ROW with a Late 2008 PD that has a 3 yr 10 mths est. time as of today will a as of Sept 2011 remain as 3 yr 10 mths??

CM said...

@Merlo

See my answers for your questions below.

1) Number 1) is quoted for demand upto March 2011 for EB3 and EB2. Those numbers can vary from month to month based on PERMs filed. Other than that some PWMBs were added. PERM data used was further segregated strictly by PD, hence change in wait time.

2)Data used for July 2007 fiasco (PWMB) has come from PERM data where individuals with PD before 01 August 2007 and PERM approval date after 01 August 2007 were considered.

Please let me know if you have any doubts.

CM said...

@KS Oh now you are being very kind. It is just that I like blogging about this topic. :)

CM said...

@Astute Reader(AR) -

Thank you for your kind words and keeping us motivated. You, your self have lot of knowledge regarding the subject and I am sure you are also contributing to community in one way or other (unknown to me). I would love to get your continuous feedback on our posts so that we can get better with time. We always welcome constructive criticism. THANKS.


Anonymous said...

CM,

I just wanted to congratulate you on both your responsiveness and your ability to keep adding additional factors into your calculator, whilst still keeping it usable.

It is truly spectacular work, which you should be rightly proud of.

You have a very understanding family - I certainly understood your comment about balancing your obvious passion for the subject with other needs in your (and their) lives.

Forecasting into the future is a difficult undertaking, especially with the paucity of available data.

I believe your calculator generally gives a realistic result, disappointing as that might be to many people.

The timing for later PDs should become more certain and better defined as time progresses.

I didn't see the comments you removed, but please don't let them undermine the terrific work you are doing.

Best Wishes

Astute Reader (LOL)

CM said...

Only country (countries) that do not get their entire annual limit is EB3-ROW. Most of this is at expense of taking share from EB3-ROW and distributing it to other countries (Mexico-Philippines) that do not consume 7% limit of it's annual allocation(which includes EB + FB annual total visa numbers). So in order to keep these countries retrogressed, USCIS have to give more visas to EB3-P and EB3-M. Why this is done at expense of EB3-ROW, I am not sure. May be some limitation due to Fall Across criteria.

EB3-P cannot surpass EB3-ROW is because if they will do so then it again violates definition of retrogressed countries. Those visas will never go waste because in reality when EB3-P cut off dates are very close to EB3-ROW cut-off dates, in that case PD cut off date should be determined literally using (EB3_ROW demand + EB3 -P demand)- (2400+233). 1st candidate's PD after this subtraction is the PD cut-off date.



Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

What are some reasons why total annual limit for a certain category for a certain country is not available? Is it possible that some of the allotted visa are not being used? Is it one reason is that cut-off date of EB3Phil cannot surpass that of EB3row? For example,there are 2800 visas allotted for eb3P,before the end of the fiscal year, only 2000 were used, there are still 800 visas available but PDs cannot move due to the ruling that it should not surpass EB3row.Assuming that what I am thinking is correct,will those unused allotted visa goes into waste?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Thanks for your updates.
As per your Calculator it looks like the dates in next financial year (from OCT 2011 to Sep 2012) for EB2-I will only move from August 2007 till December 2007. (As January 2008 is showing 2 years).
Do you think it is correct with even 18800 spill over?
I think we all should wait till Sep 2011 bulletin for this calculator to behave correctly, so that you can update it.

CM said...

This is how GC calculator is working right now in background. It is assuming that dates will reach 22nd July 2007 without considering PWMBs for July 07 and Aug 07. PWMB numbers respectively for these months are

India – 3430 and 3475
China – 485 and 583

It is blindly ignoring them for this FY 2011. But after this year, it assumes these PWMBs in demand. So considering everything from EB2-IC PD of 15 October 2006, demand to cross August 2007 becomes
For EB2-India = 26,439
For EB2-China = 9,304

Total Demand to cross August 2007 after this spillover season becomes = 26439+9304-20,000 = 15,743
Now demand for EB2 India after August 2007 till December 2007 is = 38,772 -26439 = 12,333
Now demand for EB2 China after August 2007 till December 2007 is = 11311 – 9304 = 2,007

For next fiscal year -
In order to cross December 2007 after current fiscal year is = 15743 + 12333 + 2007 = 30,083
Total visa available next fiscal year after spillover of 20,000 = 20,000 + 5600 = 25,600
Just enough to cross November and reach December 2007 , thus making it current but might not cross it.

For PD 2008 –
Spillover assumed after next fiscal year is 15000, So this makes average spillover from today, 20000 +20000 +15000 = 18333.
Then calculations are repeated as above for demand after PD December 2007.

Whole calculation is complicated. In addition to above calculation, it is also tracking after spillover to check if total demand from last fiscal year is less than 2803. If less than 2803, it assumes PD demand – Last spillover demand/2803 = number of months to get current. As demand reach, annual visa of 2803, it jumps to spillover quarter of July of that fiscal year.

Whole code is very complicated hence some discrepancies for PDs earlier than July 2007. I hope I made sense.

Anonymous said...
Hi CM,

Thanks for your updates.
As per your Calculator it looks like the dates in next financial year (from OCT 2011 to Sep 2012) for EB2-I will only move from August 2007 till December 2007. (As January 2008 is showing 2 years).
Do you think it is correct with even 18800 spill over?
I think we all should wait till Sep 2011 bulletin for this calculator to behave correctly, so that you can update it

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
I have a basic question. Can anyone file for Labor (i.e. start the green card processing) if the visa in the category is unavailable for that month?

example - I want to file in EB3-I and it become unavailable. Can I still file my first stage (Labor).

Thanks

Anonymous said...

CM,

Great job, keep up with the good work!

Two "silly" questions:

1. Per last visa bulletin (June 2011) ROW, EB3: Sep-15-05. What does it mean? That ALL people with PDs earlier than Sep-15-05 will become current? Only a percentage of these people will become current? I guess, what I don't understand is how there are people with PDs as far back as 1997 still waiting for their PDs to become current.

2. The USCIS Inventory reports no data post August 2007, why is that? I mean, it's mid 2011 and still that data isn't available... How reliable is to use PERM data instead for the GCCalc? Do yo assume that all PERM applicants will be approved?

Thanks for your time.

Merlo

PS
The Bs look unstoppable now...

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
July Bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html

with this what you predict

Thanks

Anonymous said...

This is too much. All visas go to India and Mexico. We are from Europe and for sure our countries did not reach their visa quotations but no,we must wait Indians and Mexicans to get their gc first because we have applied as EB-ROW. Why they give our visas to them? Each month it moves only three weeks!!! This is too much!!!

Anonymous said...

All the Best Europeans. Your dates are not current this shows that your visa quotas are reached, else it wil be current for you guys.

Anonymous said...

Did you read what CM said above?
Only country (countries) that do not get their entire annual limit is EB3-ROW. Most of this is at expense of taking share from EB3-ROW and distributing it to other countries (Mexico-Philippines) that do not consume 7% limit of it's annual allocation(which includes EB + FB annual total visa numbers). So in order to keep these countries retrogressed, USCIS have to give more visas to EB3-P and EB3-M. Why this is done at expense of EB3-ROW, I am not sure. May be some limitation due to Fall Across criteria.
THIS IS NOT FAIR!

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

My PD EB2-I is May 5, 2007. Based on the July bulletin, when can I expect to be current?

Thanks for doing such a great job!

RP

Anonymous said...

Hi there,

I have been following your site from past few months and want to appreciate for all your efforts to help everyone patiently. I have couple of concerns and want get your opinion. I have PD of JUNE 2007/EB2/I, and currently working on EAD. Please help with the following concerns:
1) I have changed employer once as I got a better opportunity and since the new company could not get the project I had to come back to my original employer (filed AC21 when moved to new employer and when came back to original employer). The job title and job duties were same at both places but the salary was very high about 50K/yr different at the new place where I only worked for 1 month.

2) I have opened a consulting business an yr before I actually applied my GC when I was on H1 and processed few H1's on the company and I still have the company running with active H1 employees? Filing taxes properly.

3) I have not paid some credit cards because of some issues 6 yrs back and never worried about credit history after that and I guess it might be screwed up.

Please address if the above 3 are something I need to worry about?

Thanks in advance

Anonymous said...

My PD is Dec 2008. When will it be current?

Is the calculation below correct?

After March 2007 there are 10000 pending applications for EB2 category as per USCIS.
For 2008 there are only 1100 pending applications.
See link below:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD

If there are 2.25 Visas per application then it means ~24000 visas need to spill over for Dec 2008 PD to be current.

In the next 2 months if 10-12K visas spill over then Dec 2008 EB2 will be current by sept bulletin?

--GV

CM said...

Current in August/September Bulletin. Mostly August bulletin.


Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

My PD EB2-I is May 5, 2007. Based on the July bulletin, when can I expect to be current?

Thanks for doing such a great job!

RP

CM said...

See comments inline.

Anonymous said...

Hi there,

I have been following your site from past few months and want to appreciate for all your efforts to help everyone patiently. I have couple of concerns and want get your opinion. I have PD of JUNE 2007/EB2/I, and currently working on EAD. Please help with the following concerns:
1) I have changed employer once as I got a better opportunity and since the new company could not get the project I had to come back to my original employer (filed AC21 when moved to new employer and when came back to original employer). The job title and job duties were same at both places but the salary was very high about 50K/yr different at the new place where I only worked for 1 month.
Answer- Right now you are working for sponsoring employer that is good news. GC is for future job. Whatever you did between filing and approval does not matter as long as you maintained status. Please make sure you file AC21 again to this old job saying you are working sponsoring employer again. Just to avoid delays due to later RFE.



2) I have opened a consulting business an yr before I actually applied my GC when I was on H1 and processed few H1's on the company and I still have the company running with active H1 employees? Filing taxes properly.
Answer- Since you are using EAD you are fine.

3) I have not paid some credit cards because of some issues 6 yrs back and never worried about credit history after that and I guess it might be screwed up.
Answer - Who cares about credit card history for GC. You are golden. I would enjoy the weekend.

Please address if the above 3 are something I need to worry about?

Thanks in advance

CM said...

Filing PERM or Labor has no relation with visa number unavailable. Visa Numbers available will only matters for I-485 filing and approvals.


Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
I have a basic question. Can anyone file for Labor (i.e. start the green card processing) if the visa in the category is unavailable for that month?

example - I want to file in EB3-I and it become unavailable. Can I still file my first stage (Labor).

Thanks

CM said...

@Merlo

See inline comments -



Anonymous said...

CM,

Great job, keep up with the good work!

Two "silly" questions:

1. Per last visa bulletin (June 2011) ROW, EB3: Sep-15-05. What does it mean? That ALL people with PDs earlier than Sep-15-05 will become current? Only a percentage of these people will become current? I guess, what I don't understand is how there are people with PDs as far back as 1997 still waiting for their PDs to become current.

Answer - Everyone before 15 September 05 PD will become current but only those who are documentarily qualified will be approved. All cases you see with late 1007 PDs are not yet documentarily qualified to get approved. May be stuck in background check.

2. The USCIS Inventory reports no data post August 2007, why is that? I mean, it's mid 2011 and still that data isn't available... How reliable is to use PERM data instead for the GCCalc? Do yo assume that all PERM applicants will be approved?

Answer - After July 2007,EB3-ROW never became current for post PD July 2007 and hence no one after PD July 2007 could ever file I-485 that could be counted into inventory. Due to exceptional cases July 2007 fiasco allowed people current in Kuly 2007 to file until 18 August 2007.

Thanks for your time.

Merlo

PS
The Bs look unstoppable now...

CM said...

@Merlo - B's do faced some roadblock today but they will come out strong on Monday. :)

GC Seeker said...

Hey CM,
Thanks for your time in creating this blog. Very Insightful.
My PD is June 2008, when do you think i may be current? :)
Thanks,

Anonymous said...

CM,

Thanks for replying, I appreciate it.

Does the GCCalc apply to people with PD post 2007 in the category ROW, EB3? As you mentioned people with PDs post 2007 could not file for an I-485. Are we going to be processed like other applicants with I-485 who file their petition pre 2007?

Thanks,

Merlo

PS. The B's will kick tail for sure!

Anonymous said...

Hi,

For filing I-485, will I also need my wife's Birth Certificate along with mine, or only mine is required.

Thanks
AS

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

My PD is 29oct, 2007,when do you think mine cold be current.

Thanks for your help
nmk.

Anonymous said...

Hi:

Once PD is current, does it matter if lost the job?
Thanks

David

Anonymous said...

@Merlo

What do you mean by B's here? I really can't relate about this.

GC Seeker said...

Hey CM,
Thanks for your time in creating this blog. Very Insightful.
My PD is June 2008, when do you think i may be current? :)
Thanks,

CM said...

@Astute Reader(AR) -

Thank you for your kind words and keeping us motivated. You, your self have lot of knowledge regarding the subject and I am sure you are also contributing to community in one way or other (unknown to me). I would love to get your continuous feedback on our posts so that we can get better with time. We always welcome constructive criticism. THANKS.


Anonymous said...

CM,

I just wanted to congratulate you on both your responsiveness and your ability to keep adding additional factors into your calculator, whilst still keeping it usable.

It is truly spectacular work, which you should be rightly proud of.

You have a very understanding family - I certainly understood your comment about balancing your obvious passion for the subject with other needs in your (and their) lives.

Forecasting into the future is a difficult undertaking, especially with the paucity of available data.

I believe your calculator generally gives a realistic result, disappointing as that might be to many people.

The timing for later PDs should become more certain and better defined as time progresses.

I didn't see the comments you removed, but please don't let them undermine the terrific work you are doing.

Best Wishes

Astute Reader (LOL)

Anonymous said...

All the Best Europeans. Your dates are not current this shows that your visa quotas are reached, else it wil be current for you guys.

Anonymous said...

Hi there,

I have been following your site from past few months and want to appreciate for all your efforts to help everyone patiently. I have couple of concerns and want get your opinion. I have PD of JUNE 2007/EB2/I, and currently working on EAD. Please help with the following concerns:
1) I have changed employer once as I got a better opportunity and since the new company could not get the project I had to come back to my original employer (filed AC21 when moved to new employer and when came back to original employer). The job title and job duties were same at both places but the salary was very high about 50K/yr different at the new place where I only worked for 1 month.

2) I have opened a consulting business an yr before I actually applied my GC when I was on H1 and processed few H1's on the company and I still have the company running with active H1 employees? Filing taxes properly.

3) I have not paid some credit cards because of some issues 6 yrs back and never worried about credit history after that and I guess it might be screwed up.

Please address if the above 3 are something I need to worry about?

Thanks in advance

CM said...

This is how GC calculator is working right now in background. It is assuming that dates will reach 22nd July 2007 without considering PWMBs for July 07 and Aug 07. PWMB numbers respectively for these months are

India – 3430 and 3475
China – 485 and 583

It is blindly ignoring them for this FY 2011. But after this year, it assumes these PWMBs in demand. So considering everything from EB2-IC PD of 15 October 2006, demand to cross August 2007 becomes
For EB2-India = 26,439
For EB2-China = 9,304

Total Demand to cross August 2007 after this spillover season becomes = 26439+9304-20,000 = 15,743
Now demand for EB2 India after August 2007 till December 2007 is = 38,772 -26439 = 12,333
Now demand for EB2 China after August 2007 till December 2007 is = 11311 – 9304 = 2,007

For next fiscal year -
In order to cross December 2007 after current fiscal year is = 15743 + 12333 + 2007 = 30,083
Total visa available next fiscal year after spillover of 20,000 = 20,000 + 5600 = 25,600
Just enough to cross November and reach December 2007 , thus making it current but might not cross it.

For PD 2008 –
Spillover assumed after next fiscal year is 15000, So this makes average spillover from today, 20000 +20000 +15000 = 18333.
Then calculations are repeated as above for demand after PD December 2007.

Whole calculation is complicated. In addition to above calculation, it is also tracking after spillover to check if total demand from last fiscal year is less than 2803. If less than 2803, it assumes PD demand – Last spillover demand/2803 = number of months to get current. As demand reach, annual visa of 2803, it jumps to spillover quarter of July of that fiscal year.

Whole code is very complicated hence some discrepancies for PDs earlier than July 2007. I hope I made sense.

Anonymous said...
Hi CM,

Thanks for your updates.
As per your Calculator it looks like the dates in next financial year (from OCT 2011 to Sep 2012) for EB2-I will only move from August 2007 till December 2007. (As January 2008 is showing 2 years).
Do you think it is correct with even 18800 spill over?
I think we all should wait till Sep 2011 bulletin for this calculator to behave correctly, so that you can update it

CM said...

You made some excellent points over here but as I mentioned in one of my last comment that I have no basis to use some percentage to nix the data. Starting poll to get some kind of information on this would be a starting point. We could divide it in two polls, one with PD and Double filings and others with Percentage of couples having separate PERMs.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

Thank you for all your hard work and providing us this updated tool. I just have one question regarding the perm applications especially during 2008 and 2009. I know a lot of people had their perm cases struck in audits and few of my friends have had filed multiple perm applications filed on their behalf due to audits and during the course of time the multiple perms got certified. Does considering the perm applications and multiplying with 2.5 factor per family will not extrapolate the future I485 applications since there might be multiple perm approvals for a case?


Anonymous said...

Also one more addition that might also extrapolate the numbers especially for India is if both the spouses have their perms certified which might happen in atleast for 10-15% of India cases I would assume.

CM said...

Thank you for pointing out some good points. Especially on CP demand and as we know on less than annual visa numbers available to EB3-ROW. Based on your keen observations we have added some more features where user can change total annual limits and thus calculate wait time. EB3-M and P can put more than annual limit whilst EB3-ROW has to input less around 24000.

Once again really appreciate your contribution to our blog. THANKS.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Love your work. I realize how difficult it is to account for everything. I commented previously about CP cases versus LO returns and you made a very kind response.

In EB3, Mexico and Philippines regularly use more visas than the theoretical 7% limit within EB3 (2,803 at the minimum allocation).

For example, M-P received 4,496 visas above 7% in FY2009 and 5,359 extra visas in FY2010.

As well as affecting M_P themselves, this has an effect on EB3-ROW, because their theoretical allocation is reduced as a result.

For example, ROW received 26,295 visas in FY2009 and only 24,328 in FY2010 versus the 29,128 and 31,324 they might otherwise have received.

It might be worth mentioning in the explanatory text, because an EB3-ROW applicant might have to enter a negative spillover amount to get an accurate picture.

It would be helpful if the tool displayed the number of yearly visas calculated as a result of the user input.

It is not clear whether your figures include CP cases. In EB2, CP is very low and can probably be ignored for simplicity. Each of the Countries in EB3 have very different CP rates and from the NVC data, Philippines has a huge number in the period up to 2009/2010 (45k). I realize that beyond the current backlog, the PERM figures represent both CP and AOS. Prior to that, the Inventory data alone does not. Apologies if you have covered this in a previous posting and I have missed it.

These are genuine questions, not criticism. You have an almost impossible task incorporating all the variables into a simple to use tool. I salute your efforts.

Thanks for taking the time to read this.

CM said...

Updated calculator today to add few other features and information, and fix one bug. This should be complete in all respect for now. Cheers.

Anonymous said...

I meant July 2007 in statement ......
And as per my knowledge it won't retrogress in October 2011 (if it move to July 2007 only), Then how it can take 4 years and 7 month.

CM said...

Dear Friends –
I see lot of comments that is posted about the newly released Green Calculator and there is a common concern that it may be calculating estimations wrong. I have limited access to my blog from work and I would reply to everyone is detail later.

As per my knowledge, green card calculator is predicting estimation pretty correct. I understand some years and estimation has increased tremendously for some categories with respect to OLD Green Card calculator. Reason for this is explained below.

a) Our OLD calculator was predicting PERM distribution of 50:50 between EB2 and EB3, which is not true for most of the categories. This ratio has changed when analyzing as per PWD data. General trend is posted above.

b) Earlier annual PERM data was NOT distributed as per Priority Date but was simply divided among each month assuming equal applications number. This is not true. Number of applications for each category is increased for PD 2008 and PD 2009 due to recent approvals of audit cases. Data now is strictly divided as per Priority date (with error of +/- 5 days). For each PERM approval family size is assumed 2.25. There may be many individuals with late PD 2010-PD 2011 who are single but by the time they will get green card, annual family size may increase.

c) Wait time has tremendously increased due to addition of People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007 fiasco. These numbers are significant for each country and category. See our earlier post regarding PWMB. For example numbers considering dependents are for EB3-ROW is 13000, and for EB2-I is 9500. These data is added to respective inventory and number of application prior 2007 has increased

Factors a), b) and c) are major reason for seeing this whole big difference. But now GC calculator is real representation of wait time for PDs post July 2007.

d) Post PD 2007, when calculating some of the PERM approvals, some of the porting application may be repeated but again as most of us think upgrade demand is small, it should not be large factor.

Things that as still missing are –
a) Current inventory released by USCIS does not account for visa numbers that will be use starting June 01. We need to correct this. For example removing (12000 application for EB2-I or 1575 applications for EB3-ROW and so on)

b) We have not considered CP cases. In general they are small around 5% for EB2-IC and 15% for EB3-ROW but huge for EB3-C,M,P [as pointed by one of our astute reader (will start calling you that – appreciate you sharing your knowledge)]

There may be so many things that I have tried to include in this tool but it is getting more and more towards reality and estimating correct wait time. I have tried to put forth my best efforts.

For EB2-IC it still does not mean it cannot get current in FY 2011 but it will total depends upon how dates will progress in next 2-3 months and whether PWMB will be able to use visa numbers. Answer si may be not, it will not consume PWMB. But in general Green Card in hand time is huge for EB2-IC and EB3-IC.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Love your work. I realize how difficult it is to account for everything. I commented previously about CP cases versus LO returns and you made a very kind response.

In EB3, Mexico and Philippines regularly use more visas than the theoretical 7% limit within EB3 (2,803 at the minimum allocation).

For example, M-P received 4,496 visas above 7% in FY2009 and 5,359 extra visas in FY2010.

As well as affecting M_P themselves, this has an effect on EB3-ROW, because their theoretical allocation is reduced as a result.

For example, ROW received 26,295 visas in FY2009 and only 24,328 in FY2010 versus the 29,128 and 31,324 they might otherwise have received.

It might be worth mentioning in the explanatory text, because an EB3-ROW applicant might have to enter a negative spillover amount to get an accurate picture.

It would be helpful if the tool displayed the number of yearly visas calculated as a result of the user input.

It is not clear whether your figures include CP cases. In EB2, CP is very low and can probably be ignored for simplicity. Each of the Countries in EB3 have very different CP rates and from the NVC data, Philippines has a huge number in the period up to 2009/2010 (45k). I realize that beyond the current backlog, the PERM figures represent both CP and AOS. Prior to that, the Inventory data alone does not. Apologies if you have covered this in a previous posting and I have missed it.

These are genuine questions, not criticism. You have an almost impossible task incorporating all the variables into a simple to use tool. I salute your efforts.

Thanks for taking the time to read this.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Are you sure about the calculations calculated by the calculator. The PD are jumping more than expected this year 2011. The calculator went from 2.5 years to 6.5 years...What happened? My PD is january 2010 EB2 India

Anonymous said...

CM,
Can you tell us if
PD determined by Demand data or I-485 inventory ?
Is it correct to base calculations of PD movement on Inventory?

As far as i know Inventory has more numbers than demand data, Reason is some of the number didnt go off even though they have been allocated the visa, due to processing. I may be wrong

Anonymous said...

DEAR NURSES READ THIS AND CHEER UP!!!!!!

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h112-1929

H.R. 1929: To provide relief for the shortage of nurses in the United States, and for other purposes

(a) Increasing Visa Numbers- Section 106 of the American Competitiveness in the Twenty-first Century Act of 2000 (Public Law 106-313; 8 U.S.C. 1153 note) is amended by adding at the end the following:




‘(e) Visa Shortage Relief for Nurses-




‘(1) IN GENERAL- Subject to paragraph (2), for petitions filed any time prior to September 30, 2014, for employment-based immigrants (and their family members accompanying or following to join under section 203(d) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(d))), which are or have been approved based on Schedule A, Group I as defined in section 656.5 of title 20, Code of Federal Regulations, as promulgated by the Secretary of Labor, the numerical limitations set forth in sections 201(d) and 202(a) of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1151(d) and 1152(a)) shall not apply.




‘(2) LIMITATION ON NUMBER OF VISAS- The Secretary of State may not issue more than 20,000 immigrant visa numbers in any one fiscal year (plus any available visa numbers under this paragraph not used during the preceding fiscal year) to principal beneficiaries of petitions pursuant to paragraph (1).




‘(3) EXPEDITED REVIEW- The Secretary of Homeland Security shall provide a process for reviewing and acting upon petitions with respect to immigrants described in paragraph (1) not later than 30 days after the date on which a completed petition has been filed.




‘(f) Fee for Use of Visas Under Subsection (a)-




‘(1) IN GENERAL- The Secretary of Homeland Security shall impose a fee upon each petitioning employer who uses a visa provided under subsection (e) to provide employment for an alien as a professional nurse, except that--




‘(A) such fee shall be in the amount of $1,500 for each such alien nurse (but not for dependents accompanying or following to join who are not professional nurses); and




‘(B) no fee shall be imposed for the use of such visas if the employer demonstrates to the Secretary that--




‘(i) the employer is a health care facility that is located in a county or parish that received individual and public assistance pursuant to Major Disaster Declaration number 1603 or 1607; or




‘(ii) the employer is a health care facility that has been designated as a Health Professional Shortage Area facility by the Secretary of Health and Human Services as defined in section 332 of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 254e).




‘(2) FEE COLLECTION- A fee imposed by the Secretary of Homeland Security pursuant to paragraph (1) shall be collected by the Secretary as a condition of approval of an application for adjustment of status by the beneficiary of a petition or by the Secretary of State as a condition of issuance of a visa to such beneficiary.’.

CM said...

I will call NVC and check status on your case. Just make sure you do not owe them anything. You should have received packet 3 by now. One reason can be NVC is just waiting to send packet when they think your dates are close i.e. 8-9 months before getting current. But in any xase I will email them or call them.

Anonymous said...

Hi!

I received a notice (2007) from the atty of my petitioner that they have received my visa fee bill already and paid it, why until now (2011) i still have not received my packet 3, my pd is january 2007 eb3 phils.

thanks

Anonymous said...

@CM

CM, Thanks a lot. You're the best! God bless you...

CM said...

@Merlo

1. Yes it is temporary for now but that will move gc calculator predictions by 3-5 months.

2. In order to be Documentarily qualified you have to fill DS-230 form. As of now you do not have to do anything. Your I-140 should be sent to National Visa Center (NVC). Once received, the NVC will assign a case number for the petition. When your priority date meets the most recent qualifying date, the NVC will send the Choice of Address and Agent form to the applicant, if an attorney or agent will be used. (NOTE: If you already have an attorney, the NVC will not send you this form.) NVC will begin pre-processing the your case by providing you with instructions to submit the appropriate fees. After the appropriate fees are paid, the NVC will request that the you submit the necessary immigrant visa documents so that you can be considered "documentarily qualified". Usually you will submit submit documents with Form DS-230.

In general, the following documents are required:

* Passport(s) valid for 60 days beyond the expiration date printed on the immigrant visa
* Application for Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration, Form DS-230, both Part I and Part II, or Online Immigrant Visa Application and Registration, Form DS-260 (NOTE: Form DS-260 is a new online application form. It is currently in use for immigrant visa applicants whose cases meet certain criteria. Review Online Immigrant Visa Forms to learn whether you must complete the online DS-260 form.)
* Two (2) 2x2 photographs. See the required photo format explained in Photograph Requirements.
* Civil Documents for the applicant. See Documents the Applicant Must Submit for more specific information about documentation requirements, including information on which documents may need to be translated. The consular officer may ask for more information during your visa interview. If not already submitted to the NVC, bring clear, legible photocopies of civil documents, such as birth and marriage certificates, and any required translations to your immigrant visa interview. Original documents and translations can then be returned to you.
* Financial Support – At your immigrant visa interview, you must demonstrate to the consular officer that you will not become a public charge in the United States. (NOTE: For applicants where a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident (LPR) relative filed the Form I-140 petition or where such a relative has a significant ownership interest in the entity that filed the petition, that relative must complete Form I-864, Affidavit of Support Under Section 213A of the Act, on behalf of the applicant.)
* Completed Medical Examination Forms – These are provided by the panel physician after you have completed your medical examination and vaccinations (see below).

Visa Interview

Once the NVC determines the file is complete with all the required documents, they schedule the applicant’s interview appointment. NVC then sends the file, containing the applicant’s petition and the documents listed above, to the U.S. embassy or consulate where the applicant will be interviewed for a visa. The applicant, attorney, and third-party agent, if applicable, will receive appointment emails, or letters (if no email address is available), containing the date and time of the applicant's visa interview along with instructions, including guidance for obtaining a medical examination.

gady said...

Cheers CM

gady said...

Hi CM,

In this case, do you advice me to apply from EB2? Restart from the beginning? I don't want to stay in this job and open my biz here but in this scenario I can't. Any advice? I am with H1B.
Cheers,GADY

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

B's = Bruins

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You need to have same or similar job when your I-485 is approved. Check this http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/faq-on-ac21-portability-and-similar-job.html

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

It can be current this year but you will not receive green card at least until Sep-December 2012.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Each individual in the family will file it's own I-485 application once getting current, hence BC will be required for each applicant (you and your wife). Good Luck.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yes GC Calc considers them as well on basis of PERM application. Once dates will become current post July 2007, individuals with PD after July 2007 will file for I-485. Please note for I-485 to file - PD should be current and to get approval as well PD should be current..

P.S. - I am sure they will do. They have to :)

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You will get gc in next 3 years for sure. You getting current for this year is dicy.

Seggumsrinivas said...

When I entered EB2-India with PD as April 2010...it is showing like you get GC in 5 years 6 months....is this true?

CM said...

Yes that is true for dates to become current without retrogressing as long as we see PERMs getting converted into I-485s completely. In reality some of the PERMs will fall out and you should green card in hand in =/- 5 months from that date.

AH said...

Hi CM,
Are you in the process of updating the calculator based on July Bulletin? OR have you made the necessary changes and updates?
Thanks a lot,
AH

AMT said...

Gr8 job CM,
You think dates will retrogress end of this year? What are the chances of July 2008 being current in the 2012 spillover?
AMT

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

AH - GC calculator assumes that dates will reach July 2007 after retrogressing in October 2011 and calculates from then considering PWMBs. So I do not need to update it as of now. Spillover calculations works well after July 2007. I will update calculator later if dates will retrogress to some other cut-off dates in October 2011.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thank you for your kind words.

Dates will definitely retrogress if they will cross into August 2007. PD July 2008 may make it this year. Chances are only 20%.

PCH said...

CM, Thanks for the Great work. My Priority Date is 31st August 2007(EB2- India). What are the timeline for getting the dates current and getting Greencard

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Unless if something that we are assuming is totally different from reality, you should be current in September bulletin. Once filed you will get GC in 6-8 months from there.

Merlo said...

CM,

B's up 3-0 in the second... If the B's win, as I expect, don't overindulge too much.

Merlo

King said...

What is B?

Merlo said...

B's are the Bruins, NHL (hockey) team.

back2grave said...

Thanks for your wonderful effort in providing informations on a regular basis. I've been on the same boat as thousand others waiting for my PD to be current. I spoke to my immigration attorney few days back regarding my PD, which is Apr,2008. He doesn't seem to be too optimistic about it being current real soon. He's of the opinion that there'll be a retrogession before it reaches my PD. For him, its hard to predict any ballpark timeline. Do you guys think there's a realistic chance that PD Apr,2008 might become current by Q1 next year?

Rajiv said...

Hi CM,

Thanks for all your efforts.

Do you think it may be possible that there will be a spillover of 1000 for EB3 India in August? when I put my PD of June 2002, EB3 India, it gives a 1000 spillover. Just wondering if that may or may not happen?
thanks.

Rajiv said...

...and just in your opinion, how soon do you think I will be current : June 11, 2002 EB3 India.

thanks much ...

erSe said...

What will be the situation for EB3 India with PD in Feb 2010.

Josh said...

HI CM,

Excellent work! I sincerely appreciate your analysis.
My PD is March 2005/EB3/I, any idea when would it be current?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

That was a great victory!!!!!

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