Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label STEM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label STEM. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Senator Hatch wants White House to seek H-1B expansion

Posted On Tuesday, February 22, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Treasury secretary says he agrees with Hatch on need to increase H-1B visa program

Computerworld - WASHINGTON -- U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) berated the White House on Wednesday for failing to urge expansion of the H-1B program.

Hatch, the ranking member of the Senate Committee on Finance, raised his concern at a committee hearing on President Obama's proposed 2012 federal budget. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was its sole witness.

One of the things that would "help our country a great deal is to expand the H-1B and allow these Ph.D.s who are educated here who want to stay here, who are brilliant, who can help us in the high-tech world and other worlds, to stay here," Hatch told Geithner.

"It's ridiculous that the administration doesn't weigh in on [H-1B], and I know why they don't -- but it's ridiculous not to," Hatch said, "And we've now created real competitors in India and China, just to mention two places, but others as well. "

In China, but especially in India, the H-1B visa is critical to offshore outsourcing companies in providing overseas services. These companies were critical of the Senate last year for approving a $2,000 visa fee increase specifically aimed at them. U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who sought the fee increase, said the H-1B program has created "multinational temp agencies."

"We are not doing things that we really ought to do to get competitive," Hatch said. "Weigh in on this H-1B thing. That would help us a great deal."

In response, Geithner said, "I agree with you on H-1B, by the way. It's just a question about how best to do it."

Hatch quickly answered, "Expand it."

The U.S. issues 85,000 H-1B visas each year, of which 20,000 are reserved for advanced-degree graduates of U.S. universities.

The Obama administration has said little about the H-1B program specifically, but in his State of the Union address last month, he urged an easier path to immigration for foreign students who graduate with advanced degrees from U.S. institutions.

Legislation to accomplish that may soon emerge from U.S. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.). Lofgren drafted a proposal that would create a new employment-based permanent residency, or green card, category for advanced-degree graduates. It would bypass the need for an H-1B visa.

Two other senators, Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), want to limit the number of H-1B or L-1 visas to 50% of a company's U.S. workforce, the so-called 50/50 rule.

Patrick Thibodeau covers SaaS and enterprise applications, outsourcing, government IT policies, data centers and IT workforce issues for Computerworld. Follow Patrick on Twitter at Twitter @DCgov or subscribe to Patrick's RSS feed Thibodeau RSS. His e-mail address is pthibodeau@computerworld.com.


Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Durbin-Grassley's Letter to DHS Secretary to terminate 17-month OPT extension program for STEM students

Posted On Tuesday, February 15, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Senator Grassley and Senator Durbin's letter to DHS Secretary, Janet Napolitano requesting restoring integrity of H1-B Program and reconsidering terminating 17-month OPT extension program for STEM students.


Wednesday, April 8, 2009

H1B FY 2010 Filings Reflect Market Condition

Posted On Wednesday, April 08, 2009 by Rav 0 comments

Today, USCIS announced that it has not reached the H1B cap for FY 2010. It has been five business days since H1B cap has been opened. USCIS announced it continues to accept H-1B non immigrant visa petitions subject to the fiscal year 2010 (FY 2010) cap. USCIS will continue to monitor the number of H-1B petitions received for both the 65,000 regular cap and the 20,000 U.S. master’s degree or higher educational exemption cap. USCIS mentioned that they would announce to public, the day (final receipt date) when the cap is reached for respective case. The application received on final receipt date would undergo a Mini lottery through computerized generated random selection process. It is not clear as of now whether USCIS will post H1B cap count on daily basis, as they had been doing for so many years or will they just publish the "final receipt date" when cap is reached. If USCIS fails to keep tabs on the updated count on USCIS website, this could be considered as a smart move from their side. By this they could avoid plenty last minute rushed H1B application that are received every year nearing final receipt date, thus reducing their added workload.

It should be recalled that cap for the FY 2009 and FY 2008 were met on first day of April each year, whereas H1B Cap FY 2010 is still open past five business days. USCIS has informed that this year they have received more application under Master’s degree or higher educational exemption cap case whereas number for regular cap is still far from numerical limitation on approved quota. This signifies that demand in H1B filings every year is indicative of the real market condition and America is always in need of skilled workers to thrive in competitive global economy. The filing trend for the fiscal year FY 2010 is reflective of current market condition, inwhere with many unemployed workers available in market there is less need of H1Bs with bachelor’s degree, but unquestionably there is a shortage of personals in few specialized areas which need expertise in highly specific fields that usually require advanced studies.

It should be recalled that author has mentioned in his previous post that America needs talented and skilled workers with advanced degrees and there is a need to reform the immigration system. This calls for total H1B CAP exempt for International students who have earned Masters and PhD from American Universities, thus preventing reverse brain drain of talented individuals who contribute to continuous development of technology in the country. These individuals not only include STEM majors but also Business majors who contribute so much to American Financial System.

Moreover to make America more competitive, there is an acute need to make graduate and post graduate education highly subsidized by US government. This will help every American to get trained in specialized areas requiring expertise. With this done, every American can compete with an international student (F1B) with a higher advanced degree, making it is easy to sustain in any type of economy.


Sunday, April 5, 2009

H1B Cap FY 2010 could lead to much needed Reform

Posted On Sunday, April 05, 2009 by Rav 2 comments

For five business days beginning Wednesday, April 1st, United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) started accepting petitions for the H-1B for the 2010 fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. In recent years, visa limits were reached on the first days of the application period.Last year, USCIS published a new rule according to which they will select H1-B visa application received during first five business days through H1B lottery process if cap limit is reached on first day of application. Successively after five business days if cap is not reached, any applications received on the day cap is reached will be used for H1B lottery process. It should be noted that though there is a notion from the last year, that USCIS will accept application for first five business days for H1B lottery if cap is reached anytime within first five days, but this statement has not been explicitly published anywhere this year on USCIS website.

There were wide reports that the H-1B cap filing for FY 2010 will be much lighter this year because of current economic recession and hiring freeze in the companies. With companies laying off so many workers and stringent laws imposed on companies getting bailout money through Trouble Asset Relief Program (TARP), you would expect that H1B cap for FY 2010 will last for few months. But recent article published in New York Times suggests that there still may be rush for H1B visa application this year even as the demands seems to dip. This may be due to large amount of backlog from applicants from last two years, who could not get H1B because of lottery in FY 2009 and FY 2008. Failure to get selected through H1B lottery last year forced these applicants to work on Optional Practical Training (OPT) for more than a year, thanks to the new rule published last year on OPT extension for 17 months for STEM (Science, Technological, Mathematics and Engineering) students. Needless to say big Indian technological companies, who could not get visas last year will try for them this year.

There have been recent reports that Department of Labor (DOL) has become strict on many US based small consulting companies who exploit H1B visa program by filing many H1B application with no legitimate client requirements. These companies are in strict scrutiny by DOL and hopefully will be filing less worker visas this year. There is also information that these small companies to surmount any explanation to DOL this year, plan to file many H1B under Consular Processing (CP). Consular Processing requires applicant to obtain H1B visa stamped before they could work for an employer who filed a petition. This way they will only provide I-797 to their employees when they will have legitimate requirements from the clients.

It has been 3 official days since Cap has been open but there is no formal release on H1B cap count for FY 2010 on USCIS website. There are unconfirmed reports or rumors that on the first day, the agency had received less than 40,000 out of the total cap of 75,820 excluding the free trade special H-1B1 cap numbers for Singapore and Chile (Oh Law firm). Considering the fact that most of the employers had sent in cap petitions on the first day of April, the volume can be considered much lighter this year than that of last year. Those who have filed or will file before the end of the day of April 7, 2009 have good chances to get their H1B application accepted. Only cases that will be subject to the lottery will be those received on final receipt day when cap is reached.

Looking back at those 40,000 numbers for the first day of H1B filing, they seems a lot in this market condition. If cap is reached within few days from now, then there is a specific need to overhaul H1B visa Program plus immediate need to ban some of the participating companies who abuse the system left and right. It is less likely in this economic recession that there is such a high demand for H1B visas when there are so many right candidates available in America especially when unemployment rate hit 8.3% in March 2009.

There is no doubt that America needs talented and skilled workers for continuous economic growth but this should be achieved with rational means and by bringing reform in H1B system through strict regulations by DOL. Major reform in the system also calls for total H1B CAP exempt for International students who have earned Masters and PhD from American Universities thus preventing reverse brain drain of talented individuals who contribute to continuous development of technology in the country. These individuals not only include STEM majors but also Business majors who add so much to American Financial System.