Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label Green Card Calculator. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Green Card Calculator. Show all posts

Sunday, July 10, 2011

I-140 and I-485 Approval Rate and Updated GC Calculator

Posted On Sunday, July 10, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Here is the summarized information on annual I-140 and I-485 percentage approval rate for different service centers. This data is solely taken from published data on website - http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html ,and is just tabulated and presented here in different format. We have updated our green calculator to include I-140 conversion rate based on this data, Green Calculator, thus will not assume 100% I-140 approval rate for approved PERMs . This conversion rate is only used for calculation for any cut-off dates which are beyond July 2007.  For any priority date which is after or on October of the particular year, calculator will use the percentage approval rate value from the next year, thus assuming PERM approval time of 90 days.

Tabulated list below also considered volume of applications received at NSC and TSC in order to arrive at average I-140 and I-485 approval percentage, and succesively used those values to calculate 'rolling successive percentage'. Green Card calculator will use 'rolling successive average' to arrive at reduced number of applicants before your priority date to calculate estimated wait time. System will recommend I-140 conversion rate for each priority date.

I-140 conversion rate is also an 'USER ENTERED' entry where you can input values in 'Percentage' only. For e.g. If you will assume percentage as '75', entered value should be '0.75' or '75%'.

I-140 and I-485 Approval Rate for diffferent Service Centers


Click Picture to Enlarge

Click Picture to Enlarge

 




 

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Updated Green Card Calculator & Other Notes

Posted On Thursday, June 02, 2011 by Rav 62 comments

As per recent data released by USCIS on May 26th, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, green card calculator is updated. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card from current date (as per GMT). In addition to other categories it will aslo calculate number for applicants for EW (Others) category. Due to complication in calculation it cannot estimate wait time as of now.

Data beyond July 2007

Data beyond July 2007 is segregated from PERM data with respective to 'Priority Date'. To segregate EB2 and EB3, PWD minimum salary was used as a basis instead of assumption of 50:50. Ratio 50:50 do not holds true for many countries. Please see table below, which outlines PERM distribution for EB2 and EB3 for different countries.



Spillover Estimation - System will recommend spillover that we expect to receive in coming years for each country and category .
EB2-India & China - PERM distribution for different priority date in EB2 - India and China was calculated. This distribution will control how spillover will be distributed among EB2-IC as dates will progress for different Priority Dates. System would try to average the Spillover among EB2-India and China in such a way that number of years required to reach similar PDs are as close as possible. For each fiscal year, system assumes following spillover. In general distribution of EB2-IC PERM Ratio for different PD year is as shown below. In general, waiting time for Indian nationals in EB2 and EB3 category looks terrible. Since density of applicants per month in EB2-India is so high, that in long run EB2-China will not receive majority of spillover (couple hundred or few thousands). Since EB2 will not be cleared for atleast next 5-6 years, spillover expeccted to EB3 category is minimum. EB3-India will get some indirect- spillover each year due to EB3 to EB2 upgrades or porting which will cause queue to clear faster than anticipated. Individuals with PD close to 2004 -2006 will see ample benefit of this every year. Apparently, if EB2-I will stop receiving spillover or receive minimum spillover in coming years, wait time for EB3-India and EB2-India will end up same. If you will note EB3-India has only 102k estimated demand vs. 165k for EB2-India for PD - March 2011. This whole ordeal is very depressing and visa recapture bill is only hope for EB community.


In addition, you can also put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario. Please see assumptions below. Please ensure that you enter "User ENTERED" value exactly as shown in table below.


PWMB - PWMB is taken care of in green card calculator. In general PWMB number for a PD month is added to the current inventory for the successive PD month. For e.g. if PWMB for EB3-ROW with PD Sep -2005 is '50' , this number is added in PD Oct-2005 inventory. This is done because that demand will not be realised until specific PD will become current. Please click here to see post that refers PWMB for EB3 category.


For EB2-India and China, PWMB is added to the following inventory assuming PD in coming visa bulletin will move in increments as stated in table below.


It is assumed that 7% of the total annual EB Visa Numbers (140,000) are allocated to each of the four retrogressed countries while the remaining 72% visa numbers are available to the Rest of the World. Visa numbers allotment for EB4 and EB5 are considered separately.

Please click Here to check Updated Green Card Calculator


 

Thursday, January 20, 2011

When will I get my Green Card? - Green Card Calculator for EB category

Posted On Thursday, January 20, 2011 by Rav 424 comments

If you ever wondered "When will I get my Green Card?", here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category. As per recent data released by USCIS on May 26th, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory this is a calculation that tells an individal how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card from current date (as per GMT).

Last Edited for October Inventory - December 29, 2011
Data beyond July 2007

Data beyond July 2007 is segregated from PERM data with respective to 'Priority Date'. To segregate EB2 and EB3, PWD minimum salary was used as a basis instead of assumption of 50:50. Ratio 50:50 do not holds true for many countries. Please see table below, which outlines PERM distribution for EB2 and EB3 for different countries.
Spillover Estimation - System will recommend spillover that we expect to receive in coming years for each country and category . EB2-India & China - PERM distribution for different priority date in EB2 - India and China was calculated. This distribution will control how spillover will be distributed among EB2-IC as dates will progress for different Priority Dates. System would try to average the Spillover among EB2-India and China in such a way that number of years required to reach similar PDs are as close as possible. For each fiscal year, system assumes following spillover.

In general distribution of EB2-IC PERM Ratio for different PD year is as shown below. In general, waiting time for Indian nationals in EB2 and EB3 category looks terrible. Since density of applicants per month in EB2-India is so high, that in long run EB2-China will not receive majority of spillover (couple hundred or few thousands). Since EB2 will not be cleared for atleast next 5-6 years, spillover expeccted to EB3 category is minimum. EB3-India will get some indirect- spillover each year due to EB3 to EB2 upgrades or porting which will cause queue to clear faster than anticipated. Individuals with PD close to 2004 -2006 will see ample benefit of this every year. Apparently, if EB2-I will stop receiving spillover or receive minimum spillover in coming years, wait time for EB3-India and EB2-India will end up same. If you will note EB3-India has only 102k estimated demand vs. 165k for EB2-India for PD - March 2011. This whole ordeal is very depressing and visa recapture bill is only hope for EB community.

In addition, you can also put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario. Please see assumptions below. Please ensure that you enter "User ENTERED" value exactly as shown in table below.

I-140 Conversion Rate

 This data is solely taken from published data on website - http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html ,and is just tabulated and presented here in different format. We have updated our green calculator to include I-140 conversion rate based on this data, Green Calculator, thus will not assume 100% I-140 approval rate for approved PERMs . This conversion rate is only used for calculation for any cut-off dates which are beyond July 2007.  For any priority date which is after or on October of the particular year, calculator will use the percentage approval rate value from the next year, thus assuming PERM approval time of 90 days.
Tabulated list below also considered volume of applications received at NSC and TSC in order to arrive at average I-140 and I-485 approval percentage, and succesively used those values to calculate 'rolling successive percentage'. Green Card calculator will use 'rolling successive average' to arrive at reduced number of applicants before your priority date to calculate estimated wait time. System will recommend I-140 conversion rate for each priority date.
I-140 conversion rate is also an 'USER ENTERED' entry where you can input values in 'Percentage' only. For e.g. If you will assume percentage as '75', entered value should be '0.75' or '75%'.



Multiple PERM Factor
This is still ongoing effort and we are still looking into estimating reduction in demand due to multiple PERMs owned by an indiviudal and his/her spouse. Based on the poll that we have on our website, double filings within a family looks significant factor to estimate demand beyond July 2007 PD. As per our current poll status there are only 220 real PERMs out of 329 filed PERM that will contrubite to demand. This is around factor of 65%.  

System will recommend 'Multiple PERM factor' based on your country and category. Multiple PERM factor is also an 'USER ENTERED' entry where you can input values in 'Percentage' only.

PWMB - PWMB is taken care of in green card calculator. In general PWMB number for a PD month is added to the current inventory for the successive PD month. For e.g. if PWMB for EB3-ROW with PD Sep -2005 is '50' , this number is added in PD Oct-2005 inventory. This is done because that demand will not be realised until specific PD will become current. Please click this to see post that refers PWMB for EB3 category.

For EB2-India and China, PWMB is added to the following inventory assuming PD in coming visa bulletin will move in increments as stated in table below.EW - (Others) - In addition to other category it will aslo calculate number for applicants for EW (Others) category. Due to complication in calculation it cannot estimate wait time as of now. We will update it going forward.
It is assumed that 7% of the total annual EB Visa Numbers (140,000) are allocated to each of the four retrogressed countries while the remaining 72% visa numbers are available to the Rest of the World. Visa numbers allotment for EB4 and EB5 are considered separately.

F.A.Q. - Why GC calculator is estimating more wait time compared to last one?
a) Our OLD calculator was predicting PERM distribution of 50:50 between EB2 and EB3, which is not true for most of the categories. This ratio has changed when analyzing as per PWD data. General trend is posted above.

b) Earlier annual PERM data was NOT distributed as per Priority Date but was simply divided among each month assuming equal applications number. This is not true. Number of applications for each category is increased for PD 2008 and PD 2009 due to recent approvals of audit cases. Data now is strictly divided as per Priority date (with error of +/- 5 days). For each PERM approval family size is assumed 2.25. There may be many individuals with late PD 2010-PD 2011 who are single but by the time they will get green card, annual family size may increase.

c) Wait time has tremendously increased due to addition of People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007 fiasco. These numbers are significant for each country and category. See our earlier post regarding PWMB. For example numbers considering dependents are for EB3-ROW is 13000, and for EB2-I is 9500. These data are added to respective inventory and number of application prior 2007 has increased.

Factors a), b) and c) are major reason for seeing this whole big difference. But now GC calculator is real representation of wait time for PDs post July 2007.

d) Post PD 2007, when calculating some of the PERM approvals, some of the porting application may be repeated but again as most of us think upgrade demand is small, it should not be large factor.

Total Visa Available Annually - We assume that entire annual limit is available to each category as per statutory limit, but this may not be true as some of the countries do end up getting more than 7% visas than annual limit and other's less. In such case user can input number of visas , a country and a category is receiving as per current trend. Calculator assumes annual limit but this field is User ENTERED.

Consular Processing demand (CP) - System automatically assumes CP demand for different country and category. Users can also assume this demand as '0' or enter specific percentage (%). This field is User ENTERED.

PD becoming 'CURRENT' and "Green Card in Hand" time - System calculates time from today when you can expect to become current. In addition to this you can input current USCIS processing time to estimate "Green Card in hand" time. In general it is recommended that if your I-485 case is pre-adjudicated assume 1 month and if new filing assume 4-8 months. This field is User ENTERED.

Green Card Calculator was also fixed to remove some of the demand that is prior to current priority cut-off dates from the released inventory. One bug in the spillover calculation was also as pointed by one user.

Note : This calculator is estimating wait time assuming DOS will not make dates current for any category (unlikely). These are on average generic wait time, and actual time may vary on case to case basis.

FOR EB2-India and China - Please enter TOTAL Spillover EB2-IC will receive. System recommends Total Spillover based on above spillover assumptions.



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