Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label Demand Data.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Demand Data.. Show all posts

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Demand Data - October 2011 Visa Bulletin

Posted On Sunday, September 11, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Demand Data used for October 2011 Visa Bulletin cut-off date determination is captured here in.


 


 

Monday, August 8, 2011

Demand Data used for September 2011 VIsa Bulletin

Posted On Monday, August 08, 2011 by Rav 44 comments

Demand Data that will be used to estimate cut-off dates for September 2011 Vssa Bulletin was released today. Please see cumulative difference in Demand Data for August  and September 2011 visa bulletin below. Please note that EB3-P demand data for September visa bulletin data is no different than June 2011 Demand Data.

Based on the difference here we can expect following movement for the last visa  bulletin for the current fiscal year.

  • EB3 category for ROW/M/P should reach anywhere from 22 Nov 2005 - 08 Dec 2005. Earlier statement made about EB3-P trailing EB3-ROW may not come true for next few months as DOS has not updated numbers for EB3-P since June 2011 Demand data. This suggests that for some more time EB3-P will move with EB3-ROW-M.
  • EB2 category demand is exactly that would be required to clear backlog until July 2007 fiasco. 8000 more visa numbers will take EB2-IC cut-off date to 15 August 2007. We will still like to stick to our estimate of 15 June 2007 (+/- 1 week). Spillover used so far without annual limit for EB2-IC this year is 25,325.
  • For EB2- IC demand data show CP cases post 2007. Numbers are only few hundred to account for. Do not know if it is still worthwhile to make major movement and overwhelm USCIS for PD beyond July 2007 unless strategy is to get some inventory for next year. This will be done most probably next fiscal year depending upon where dates will end up for this visa bulletin.
  • EB3 -I demand reduced by 6400 -733 (visas used for movement for the Aug) ~ 5675. EB3-I cut-off date can be anywhere from 8 June 2002 - 15 June 2002.
  • EB3-China can reach anywhere from 22 July 2004 – 01 Aug 2004

Click Image to Enlarge

Click Image to Enlarge


 

Monday, July 11, 2011

Demand Data used for August 2011 VIsa Bulletin

Posted On Monday, July 11, 2011 by Rav 43 comments

 In order to capture this on the website, we are just posting the Demand Data released for August 2011 Vssa Bulletin in here. Please see cumulative difference in Demand Data for June and August 2011 visa bulletin below. It can give us difference in visa utilization for last two months.

Capturing previous Notes:

  • EB3 category for ROW/M/P will reach as predicted.
  • EB2 category demand is exactly that would be if you subtract difference of sum for inventory from January 2011 upto March and July 2007. So far spillover used is 22875 excluding 5600 annual quota. Further movement expected is for 10-12 k unused visa numbers. 
  • For EB2- IC demand data show CP cases post 2007. Numbers are only few hundred to account for. Do not know if it is still worthwhile to make major movement and overwhelm USCIS for PD beyond July 2007 unless strategy is to get some inventory for next year.
  • EB3-I demand post PD 2003 reduced to account for already ported cases. Point is USCIS looking into correct demand for EB3-I as if some chance of spillover to this category. I always thought spillover if available should go to EB3-ROW. But this is first time DOS will run into this.


Click Image to Enlarge



 

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Demand Data for June 2011 Visa Bulletin & Updated Predictions

Posted On Tuesday, May 10, 2011 by Rav 22 comments

Demand data that will be used for June Visa Bulletin has been released. Please see below the cumulative demand reduction from May 2011 to June 2011. Some of these reductions were as predicted and others were less due to hidden demand (usually newly added cases from CP offices and regular transfer of cases from local offices to National Service Center). Negative (-ve) number indicates increase in demand. Based on the currently released demand data, June visa bulletin prediction would change for some country and categories. Please see our updated visa bulletin predictions below.

Cumulative Reduction in Visa Demand from May to June 2011



Predictions

  • EB3- China could advance to 01 July 2004

  • EB3-Philippines could advance to 22 September 2005. (As EB3-P cannot have cut-off date surpass that of EB3-ROW, predicted cut-off dates are revised)

  • EB3-Mexico could advance to 15 October 2004.

  • EB3-ROW could advance to 22 September 2005. (Due to unknown hidden demand as mentioned above, we have to revise our prediction for EB3-ROW from 1 Oct 2005 to 22 September 2005. Reduction in demand for May was only 1575)

  • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.

  • EB3-India could advance to 22 April 2002.
  • EB2-India would see movement till 15 July 2006 - Since I-485 Inventory suggested that demand for EB2-India from '08 May 06' to '01 July 2006' was 2806 and demand data only reduced by 2875, this suggests that not much upgrade demand was gauged. We still think DOS will be interested in gauging some more demand before moving dates in June visa bulletin by significant amount. We still predict that cut-off dates for EB2-I will move by two weeks and at most by 4-5 weeks. We expect significant movement for EB2-IC in July visa bulletin.

  • EB2-China could advance to 08 August 2006.


June 2011 Demand Data




May 2011 Demand Data









 

Saturday, April 30, 2011

EB2 - ROW-Mexico-Philippines Visa Demand FY 2011 - Based on PERM Data

Posted On Saturday, April 30, 2011 by Rav 14 comments

We have analyzed the PERM data for FY 2011 Q1 and Q2, and FY 2010 Q4 (Aug-Sep) for EB2-ROW-M-P to ballpark current visa demand for this category. Goal behind this was to see if there is a possibility that some spillover from EB1 would be consumed by EB2-ROW before it will come to retrogressed EB2 countries. The reason behind using the FY 2010 month of August and September for the analysis was to consider the only demand from last fiscal year that is not considered in the September bulletin.. Please note that September bulletin is usually released in first week of August and hence any demand later than that is not considered during that bulletin. Though some of the cases are processed in the same fiscal year but gap time between PERM approval and submission of concurrent I-485/I-140 is minimum one month. So there is less likelihood that this demand was ever seen in FY 2010. We expect that all this demand was seen early this fiscal year.

Again to segregate PERM data in EB3 and EB2, 'minimum wage required' of less than $55000 was used as a criteria. Please note minimum wage required is different than wage offered. Any PERMs that would require wages above $55,000 were considered EB2. Though there is some error to this assumption, but this should give you rough idea about fair distribution. We understand that minimum wages required differs from state to state, and in some cases wages offered at universities and higher education institutes are lower but job requirements still qualifies you to EB2 category. All these errors in our assumptions for considering EB3s with higher minimum salary into our EB2 criteria and not considering EB2s from higher education institutes due to lower salary will offset each other. In order to complete an informed analysis, it was necessary to make some kind of assumptions.

That said, data was used to calculate total demand based on primary and dependents. On average family size used was 1.75. Further, this data was extrapolated for rest of the fiscal year only based on high demand seen in February and March. Data was extrapolated until July 2011 (reason same as explained before about release of September visa bulletin in first week of August).

What does this mean for EB2-ROW-M-P
This means PD dates for EB2-ROW-M-P will reman current for remaning fiscal year. For EB2-ROW if demand will pick up more than predicted, they can always use unused visa numebrs from EB1 category.


What does this mean for EB2-IC?
Expected EB2-ROW-M-P demand for current fiscal year will be around 28,599 +/- 1,000. Current fiscal year quota for EB2-ROW-M-P is around 34,400. Expected spillover is around 5000-7000 from EB2-ROW-M-P. Any increase in demand for EB2-ROW alone means consumption of some EB1 category unused visa numbers. EB2-M-P will yield atleast 2800 unused visas.




EB2-ROW-M-P Demand absed on PERM data


 

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Demand Data used to determine April 2011 Visa Bulletin released

Posted On Tuesday, March 08, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Demand Data used to calculate priority date cut-off for April 2011 Visa Bulletin has been released. Demand for visa numbers for most category and country has reduced from March 2011 to April 2011. We expect to see movement in April visa bulletin for all categories except EB2-India. Demand for EB2-India has increased in April Demand Data by 25. This is due to heavy EB3 to EB2 porting.

April 2011 Demand Data
March 2011 Demand Data




 

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Demand Data and EB3-EB2 Porting Calculations

Posted On Wednesday, February 09, 2011 by Rav 3 comments

Demand Data that is used to determine cut-off dates for Employment Based Category has been released. You can find Demand Data here. Based on released demand data, visa demand for EB2-India to reach 01 January 2007 has increased from 13,150 to 13,175 from February 2011 to March 2011. This portends that EB2-India will not see any movement in March 2011 Visa Bulletin.

Demand Data for EB2-India for last 4 months

Cumulative Demand

Dec 2010

Jan 2011

Feb 2011

March 2011

01 January 2007

13,150

13,125

13,150

13,175


How to use this data to predict EB3-EB2 porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is

EB3-EB2 Porting = (Demand for current month) - (Demand for past month) + 233

Dec 2010

Jan 2011

Feb 2011

March 2011

EB3-EB2 Porting

258

208

258

258

This suggests that on an average 260 cases are ported every month. This brings total to 3120 cases for a year as long as this trends continue.

Fallacy to above calculations
One fallacy to above method is 'Hidden Demand'. We are not sure about number of ported cases that are received and approved same month due to interfiling. This is what I call 'Hidden Demand', as it could not be accounted for in each month's released demand data. On an average it is taking 20 days to get a green card for a case which is ported and is already pre-adjudicated to use visa numbers. So these cases may not show up in demand data.

How to evaluate current trends in EB3 to EB2 porting?
There is no simple way to predict current trend in EB3 to EB2 porting. One way that I plan to estimate current trend in EB3 to EB2 porting is use of Google Analytics. With Google Analytics, I can drill down to each content on this website and see number of "unique visits" that I have received on each topic every day. This data is well plotted on Google Analytics and could be shared on this blog. This could at least help in breaking down number of individuals who are thinking or actually porting from EB3 to EB2. Results could be complete morass, but I think this can throw a little light on current trend in porting.

Currently this website has three posts on EB3 to EB2 porting.
I plan to analyze each of these posts to predict EB3 to EB2 porting numbers. I believe individuals visiting these topics are either thinking of porting their cases or are in middle of filing new PERM under EB2 category. This data could be leading indicator for the demand that may hit in coming months. The data set that I have analyzed so far suggests on average '20' unique visitors are interested in reading one of the above topics. If we assume that 80% of these individuals are either thinking of porting their cases or actually eligible to porting, number comes around '480' individuals for a month and around '5760' cases for a year. But again this is a small data set with lot of uncertainty. I plan to collect data until second week of March and further analyze it to share results here on website.