Capturing previous Notes:
- EB3 category for ROW/M/P will reach as predicted.
- EB2 category demand is exactly that would be if you subtract difference of sum for inventory from January 2011 upto March and July 2007. So far spillover used is 22875 excluding 5600 annual quota. Further movement expected is for 10-12 k unused visa numbers.
- For EB2- IC demand data show CP cases post 2007. Numbers are only few hundred to account for. Do not know if it is still worthwhile to make major movement and overwhelm USCIS for PD beyond July 2007 unless strategy is to get some inventory for next year.
- EB3-I demand post PD 2003 reduced to account for already ported cases. Point is USCIS looking into correct demand for EB3-I as if some chance of spillover to this category. I always thought spillover if available should go to EB3-ROW. But this is first time DOS will run into this.
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43 comments:
You have to give the explanation before the VB release...then only u are a guru...
Any body can give the briefing after the bulletin is released.
What do u say guru's
What explanation do you want? I think I captured everything under August Visa Bulletin Prediction comments. This was just placeholder for the data to copy / paste from that post.
EB3 category for ROW/M/P will reach as predicted.
EB2 category demand is exactly that would be if you subtract difference of sum for inventory from January 2011 upto March and July 2007. So far spillover used is 22875 excluding 5600 annual quota. Further movement expected is for 10-12 k unused visa numbers.
For EB2- IC demand data show CP cases post 2007. Numbers are only few hundred to account for. Do not know if it is still worthwhile to make major movement and overwhelm USCIS for PD beyond July 2007 unless strategy is to get some inventory for next year.
EB3-I demand post PD 2003 reduced to account for already ported cases. Point is USCIS looking into correct demand for EB3-I as if some chance of spillover to this category. I always thought spillover if available should go to EB3-ROW. But this is first time DOS will run into this.
Hi CM, you need not respond to such Lunatics. These type of ppl are here to spoil useful forums. They do not look at what they are talking. Do not waste your valuable time for these cheap ppl.
I am one of the persons who admire your hard work. I expect the same from other ppl as well. I am not able to tolerate these crooks. Please do not censor my words.
Sairam
What do you think happened to EB3 P? Nothing is written prior to 2004 and down the line.
Hi CM,
Don't waste your time over such things. They are meant to distract and frustrate you.
For some reason due to system error either it is omitted or they did not had exact numbers from NVC and USCIS and more likely dates will move with EB3-ROW..
Just want to add unless EB3-ROW get some spillover, dates for EB3-ROW for this FY will just end up in late November 2005.
EB2 I moved to Apr 15 2007
It is very disappointing.
I think we need a Parrot prediction for visa dates not a calculation based because I don’t think USCIS works based on any data or rules.
CM: Do you see any reason for this disappoiting movement of dates?
i agree.. no need to challenge cm.. he has been providing valuable info...
August Visa bulletin is pulled back from the site...
Visa bulletin has been yanked off the site and says coming soon..I read someplace that they made a mistake and EB2 was supposed to be April 15th 2008
No it's there here is the link
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html
hello!!.. CM..this is choy we found out that our priority date is now current for Augsut visa bulliten.. thanks for the update. now i just want to know how many weeks we get our interview in US embassy? when August came.. thank you so much.. Choy
Demand data shows that prior to january 1 2008 , EB2 grand total for India and china is 10,450 does it mean that if they will use unused 10-12K for this year, there is possibility that cut off date can move up to january 1 2008? and from new fiscal year move on from there?
CM,
Nobody can really predict or control the future and incase someone could do this, then that person is either GOD or GOD ha ha :)
On a serious note, I think you do a WONDERFUL job and you need not worry about the negative comments. Like we have said before (me and several other folks), you take time out (of your personal things) and help with questions and other analysis and we really appreciate it. Thank you much.
As for people complaining and being negative, I believe these folks are frustrated with this whole immigration mess and just venting. Never mind.
All of us need to forgive such behavior and keep chugging ahead. Please don't make this forum a personal attack arena. Let's just get together and maybe do something constructive to help with this mess.
As per my 2 cents worth of thought/suggestion:
We, all EB2 and EB3 folks need to mobilize. All the labor/I140/485 approved folks need to send out our information to a centralized location, and all this data need to be input in a safe Secure database.
This database then should be used by a paid or unpaid immigration lobby (some trust worthy firm like Murthy/ Shusterman / Khanna / Willy / Esani & Momin etc).
(The above lawyer's I mentioned are the one's I follow and a personal opinion)
This lobby then goes to the government/uscis/dhs and works on what they can do for us (the EDUCATED and well paid FUTURE VOTE BANK).
In every walk of life, we make a difference in the society we live in and we need to be rewarded in TIMELY fashion.
Plus by seeing all this centralized data maybe the govt might actually feel like doing something.
Lobbies work, they always do a better job than us going alone.
Please comment if you like/dislike this idea. Looking forward to the feedback, god bless.
inceptiontobey@gmail.com
Hello CM. Had a few questions:
1) For EB2I, does it mean that there were only 125 applications between Jan 2008 and Jan 2o11? Am I missing something from the data?
2) On what basis is the number of applications determined? Is it based on PERM? Or I-140?
3) Dependents are not captured in this, correct?
Kuku,
125 applications would have been arrived by CP demand. As we are aware NVC sent notices to applicants with CP processing. I am assuming that the 125 could be the no. of applicants responded by paying the visa fee bill.
The basis of the pending nos. is the 485 applications. They are not PERM or I-140.
You are right.Dependents are not captured.
CM, please correct, if any of the above is not right.
MR
Manju,
I my opinion if the pending applications are cleared with visa nos this year, dates can go past July 2007 and may be upto Jan 1 2008, but they will not stay there and move on. The dates will get retrogressed for sure in October as there will be lot of PWMBs with PD before July 2007.
MR
Hello CM,
I am new to your blog and find it really useful.
I had a question. My EB2 PD is Jan 2008. I found a new job and am thinking if its too close to change jobs now. Iwould like to recaptude my old PD. What happens if my PD (old) becomes current before new company's PERM or I-140 is done? Does the new job have to be similar to old one?
From reading other threads and comments it seems my PD may not be current till a year from now.
Thanks for your time and effort!
I am very confused about 1) too. Surely it can't be that low! CM, can you please clarify what these numbers mean exactly?
Wein,
My 2 cents. If i were in your position i would wait till Sept VB bulletin and make the decision regarding switching the job. That would be more informed decision.
MR
Thanks for the reply MR!
One clarification required though: Doesn't NVC send notices to folks for adjustment of status? If so, is that information published anywhere?
Please bear with me if I am asking dumn questions :). I am new to this GC process.
Personally i do not believe date will now go past July 2007 but I will agree with MR, if possible wait for one more month.
I agree with MR, other than in inventory or Demand Data, all documentarily qualified individuals are considered, including dependents.
This is published in here - > http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf
But it is not segregated by PD or annually. It is all applicants they have.
Thankyou CM and MR. I will try to wait. Hope we get good news in next bulletin.
If there are going to be a lot of PWMB's with PD before July 2007, why would they go beyond it n increase work load for USCIS?
Moreover moving PD beyond July 2007 means a lot more new 485's and EADs to process! Why would they wanna go all the way into 2008 n mess up again by inviting too much work?
I now believe they will stay short of July 07 or just go past July to August 07 in the Sep bulletin.
But, of course I hope they go to Dec 2007 : )
N a lot of us would be happy pandas : )
Hi CM,
My priority date is 1st June 2007. I want to know the chance for becoming current in Sept Bulletin. Really loosing the best opportunities while waiting for EAD. Some times really frustrated to stick to the same company past 6 years.
Thanks for the clarification. If I understood correctly, 125 does not include all applicants with PD of Jan 2008 or later. It is only those applicants in CP processing who have received fee notices. Is that right?
phxeagles,
I agree with you. The only reason they might go beyond July 2007 should be to build some inventory assuming that the spill over will be more or less similar to this year. Also what i hear from few of known attorneys that they have about 20-30% cases with PDs before July 2007 who could not file 485 during July fiasco dropped the GC processing due to various reasons like recession, loss of job, moving back to home country etc. The PWMB nos in that scenario will be less than what we are anticipating. I was wondering if there is any way we can arrive at the actual nos of PWMBs who are pursuing GC process as of today.
MR
Hi CM,
My Pd is 9th May07. What are the possibilities that 2k+ spill over is still left and Sep VB will move to 15 May or so?
thanks MR but what that 10.450 # mean? does it mean these people are in queue? if we check inventory of last year it seems in a year atleast they give GC to 10-15 K indians @ this rate do you think by next spetember visa date go beyond 2009?
Hi CM
You are doing a fantastic job. Thank you so much. I am new to this blog but have been reading the frustrations that others share that are similar to mine.
My PD is June 28th 2007 EB2I and I just hope the last leg of 2007 filings get cleared so people can move on with their personal and professional aspirations. It has been an extremely frustrating experience stuck in the same job for years and losing out on better opportunities.
Hi CM, can you please let us know when we see your new visa bulletin summary/analysis post today? appreciate your work. Thank you.
Working on it right now. It will up in half an hour or so. It is combination of bulletin analysis and predictions for rest of the fiscal year. It will be it for this year unless we see more published data.
Thank you so much for your prompt response, CM !!
Hello CM,
Some info from the below site:
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html
They are basically saying they got some info thru fifo regarding the visa usage. So far untill aug the visa usuage was around 121k, so 19k remaining.
Please check and you can use google translator and let us know your opinion.
Thank you for posting it. Here is my input from similar comment.
____________
I had a quick glance at it. it seems like someone talked to Mr. Oppenheim through FOIA and he told them that up until now only 121000 visas are used for EB category and at least 19k is still to be used.
Only information I could not understand is if Mr. O mentioned that the information that he is sharing with him is upto July or before. If it is upto July, then he could be pro-rating/may not be pro-rating for August visa bulletin.
If he is not pro-rating then around 9k can be easily used for August movement and this will spare 10K for rest of September. Of this EB2-IC share can be upto 2.5 K.
If he is prorating and this number is already included in 121K, then EB2-IC can expect to reach July 2007 or beyond using remaining 11K.
I am not sure if this is true why would Mr. O. will wait until September 2011.
CM, from your above analysis of the demand data of EB categories, you indicated that the total number under the "EB3 Demand Data Difference August 2011" was "Exagerated due to no EB3-P demand shown", does that mean that if not for the restriciton that retrogressed countries (I, C, M and P) cannot be ahead of ROW, the EB3-P would have been CURRENT?
First of all no demand shown for EB3-P was an error, in actuality demand for EB3-P as dates progress will be more than that of EB3-ROW. This is the only reason Philippines and Mexico have separate cut-off dates although they share same PD as of now.
Secondly, there is no such restriction but we should it is by definition If EB3-P can move ahead of EB3-ROW then EB3-P/EB2-P as separate identity will dissolve and will become part of EB3-ROW and total quota of EB3-ROW will increase by 9800 and Philippines will become part of ROW or I should say "non-oversubscribed".
Hi CM,
I appreciate great effort you are putting this blog.
The performance link uscis released shows the approvals from local offices . It doesn't have approvals by cervice center. So my question is if the 19K spill over number is based on that, it would be wrong , right?
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/i-485-data-2011-april.pdf
HI unicorn:
First of all 19K is not spillover but visas available from 140K for use in September (or may be Aug/Sep) for EB category. These visas will be used for overall movement in each and every category and not in EB2-IC alone.
Yes if it is based on LO data then it will be wrong. But we are referring this link - > http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf , which gives amount of approvals and receipts for each petition type until March 2011.
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