Family-Based
- Family 1st – FB1 remains unchanged across all regions at May 1, 2004 for ROW, China and India, at March 8, 1993 for Mexico and at April 15, 1996 for Philippines.
- Family 2A –FB2A moves forward by four (4) months to July 22, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by four and a half (4.5) months to June 1, 2008.
- Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remains unchanged at July 1, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to October 1, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to December 1, 2000..
- Family 3rd – most countries moved to August 2001; Philippines to November 1992; Mexico retrogressed to April 1992.
- Family 4th – most countries moved to April 2000; Philippines stalled at 15 May 1988; Mexico stalled at March 1996.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 remains current across the board.
- EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India both move forward by almost five (5) weeks to April 15, 2007.
- EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to November 1 , 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by only one (1) week to July 8, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) month to June 1, 2002. EB-3 Mexico moves forward by over five (5) months to November 1, 2005.
- The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by over five (5) months to May 1, 2005 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines. It moves forward by one (1) month to June 1, 2002 for India .
- Employment 4th – still current in all categories
- Employment 5th – still current in all categories
VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from August Visa Bulletin
Family-sponsored: Heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family First preference could require retrogression of some of the September Family First preference cut-off dates. This action may be necessary to keep visa issuances within the respective annual preference numerical limits. If this were to occur they could be expected to return to the previous cut-off date for October, the first month of the new fiscal year.
Employment-based: No Notes !!!!
Determination of annual limit for this fiscal year
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO. (Also hints why no demand data was released, since complete data from CIS was received on June 9th and July bulletin was released on June 8th.)
The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2011 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2011 are as follows:
Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2011 the per-country limit is 25,620. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,320.
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 140,000
Our Analysis on EB Category after August Visa Bulletin Release
EB3-ROW-M-P - EB3 ROW moved by three weeks to November 01, 2005. As seen with last few months, EB3-ROW only used 1500 visas from the visible demand. EB3-Mexico has utilized 5085 visa numbers for this year and has reached same level as EB3-ROW-P. Going forward EB3-ROW-M-P will move together. Since EB-3 category will not receive any spillover, we expect EB3-M-P to move by 4 weeks to 01 December 2005 for this fiscal year. This movement is based on at least 3188 (ROW-2584 + M-304 + P-300 ) available visa numbers for EB3-ROW-M-P together. Please note, since each of these countries shares sames cut-off date, going forward for next month at least, they will share same cut-off date.
EB3-India - EB3 India moved one month due to decrease in demand due to porting case. Decrease in demand was 500. This along with monthly limit of 233, allowed total movement of 733 (Inventory upto May - Inventory upto April = 2710-2050). Even if there is no further reduction in demand due to porting, we still expect EB3-India to reach 15th June 2002 for this fiscal year just using 233 number of visas.
EB3-China - EB3-China may only move by a week or two for the coming bulletin. It is difficult to gauge movement for EB3-China due to high volume of invisible CP demand.
EB2-India & China - We believe EB2 India and China advanced to 15 April 2007 by utilizing at least 2580 additional unused visa numbers from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5.
Number of applicants from 08March07 to 15April07
[26469 + (28498-26469)/2] - [24383 + (26469 – 24383)/4 ]
= 27484 – 24904
= 2580
Till date visas used for this movement
= 22,875 (used upto 08Mar07) + 5,600 (annual quota) + 2,580 (used in this bulletin)
= 31,055
At this point of time we would like to revisit our potential spillover source for the current fiscal year. We know that EB1 was suppose to give us 12,000 unused visa. It was never clear to us whether it was a half-yearly or full-yearly projected numbers. After June 2011 released inventory, EB2-ROW was projected to have demand around 26,600 - 28,600 annual, yielding around 6000-8000 unused visa numbers. As per recent released EB5 visa usage number, it was quoted that EB5 demand can be as high as 4,260, thus yielding only 9,400 4230 = 5170 unused visa numbers. So putting these together with 5,600 annual quota for EB2-IC, available visas for EB2-IC becomes
EB1 + EB2-ROW + EB5 + EB2-IC annual quota
= 12000 + 8000 + 5170 +5600
= 30,770
Now from this, all we can conclude is for EB1, 12K was a projected demand for half year, but real demand did not convert into 24K. On average, we were hoping to get more 6K from EB1. But looking at the current movement, numbers expected now can be anywhere from 3K-6K. Of these expected EB1 numbers, we have already used 500 (31,055 - 30,770).
EB5 usage has been a very big disappointment (or tough one to digest) for this year ; instead of yielding 7000 unused visa, it would only yield(ed) 5170 visas.
Taking EB1 and EB5 demand into account, worst case movement for September bulletin will be based on use of 2,500 unused visa numbers while best case could be around the use of 5,500 unused visa numbers.
Once date will reach July 2007, new cases, PWMBs and some porting will slow down the movement for Q1 and early Q2. Like this year, we can expect significant movement of priority dates in late Q2 or early Q3 of FY 2012. Movement upto first quarter of 2008 is possible with some retrogression in late Q3. We should remember NVC fee bill is valid upto one year.
Update from www.mitbbs.com
On 18th July there was some update on this site that where they mentioned that someone talked to Mr. Oppenheim through FOIA or other means (please excuse my translation) and he mentioned that up until now only 121000 visas were used for EB category and at least 19k is still to be used in coming months.
The news on 19K visas available was confirmed in two ways as below
Method A
As per recent data released by USCIS until March 2011 for I-485- Employment Based.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf
I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91,962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September.No CP demand included.
Method B
As per data that was released by USCIS day before yesterday -http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Application-for-Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2011-may.pdf , it suggests total I-485 application to adjust status received until May 2011 are 47,721.
Based on previously released USCIS Approval/Receipt information until March 2011;
I-485 Approved were – 45,981
I-485 Received were – 36,492
Approval/Receipt ratio – 1.26
I-485 Received were – 36,492
Approval/Receipt ratio – 1.26
Assuming same ratio for this newly released data until May 2011 – Approvals can be near – 1.26 x 47,721 = 60,128.This is for 8 months.
For full year FY2011 – it becomes 12 x 60,128/8 = 90,192.
Again adding spillover used so far, total consumption becomes = 90,192 + 30,000 = 120,192
So visas available for September bulletin, again becomes 140,000 – 120,192 ~ 19K.
Other way to validate 19K news from www.mitbbs.com
Note - It does not include CP demand.
Again adding spillover used so far, total consumption becomes = 90,192 + 30,000 = 120,192
So visas available for September bulletin, again becomes 140,000 – 120,192 ~ 19K.
Other way to validate 19K news from www.mitbbs.com
Note - It does not include CP demand.
Out of these 19K how much can we expect for EB2-IC?
In above calculations we have not included any CP demand in this. CP demand can be anywhere from 5%-15%. Taking 5%, CP demand will make these 121,000 used EB visa number for FY 2011 until now to 127,000 visas used for EB category after including AOS + CP demand.
Then we should also remember that as per released USCIS data, I-140 stats until March 2011 suggests that for 42,096 receipts, there were only 30,820 approvals. So even if we assume that this difference was constantly maintained for entire year, there are still chances some of these 12000 would contain EB2-ROWs. Some of these remaining visa numbers from 19K will be used for such cases when they will be approved and become documentarily qualified. Even if 10% of these are EB2-ROW, we can have 1200 demand from EB2-ROW. Then addition to this we also have usual monthly demand for EB2-ROW, which can be anywhere from 500 -1500.
We do not know anything about EB1 demand. At this point when USCIS processing time has reduced to 4 months, we can see some of these EB1s can get attention. These EB1 approvals will take some visa numbers. I think in month of August, we can see many EB1 approvals as movement for EB2-IC is only 5 weeks for August bulletin. In addition with reduced backlog, some good numbers of EB1 approvals are expected in August.
In general EB3 demand for a month can be anywhere from 2400 + 4(233) = 3332.
So now if we will consider all these aspects, what EB2-IC can expect is
= 19000 - (CP + EB2-ROW(due to I-140) + regular EB2-ROW + EB1 + EB3) demand
= 19000 - (6000 + 1200 + 1000 + 1000 + 3332) = 6468
Thus numbers available for EB2-IC can be anywhere from 3500 - 8000. So movement can be anywhere from 1 June 2007 - 15 August 2007. It all depends upon demand for last month and we have no basis to come up with exact numbers.
I have not considered EB4 and EB5, which can take few 20-50 numbers here and there.Other than EB4-EB5, there are some PWMBs and dependents who has filed until July visa bulletin, who can become documentarily qualified by September 30.
EB2-IC September 2011 Priority Date Movement
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328 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 328 Newer› Newest»Thanks for a quick update.
thank you CM. really appreciate your summery.
Great work, CM. I really appreciate your effort.
-VJ
CM,
Thank you for your details. Appreciate it as always.
To summarize, you are implying that any movement we can expect is solely based on whatever we are yet to get from EB-1 for September 2011 bulletin. Is there anyway to know this number more accurately? (I need July 1, 2007 PD on EB2-I to be current and a PWMB too)
Thank you,
TR
Hi CM, I really appreciate you taking the time to update this blog.
Two questions please:
1. Do you really think in Q2 and Q3 of 2012 when dates start moving again, priority dates will only move to Q1 of 2008? That seems very very conservative given the movement we've seen past 2 years?
2. Also since the financial crisis (late 2008) haven't green card filings from India and China slowed down considerably (I know that H-1b filings have reduced very substantially and I would imagine the same for green card filings)? If so, once we get to late 2008, should priority dates start moving much faster? And how do abandoned green cards by people returning back to their home countries play into this?
Thanks in advance for your response!
Hello CM you alreadt predicted what will be the movement until the end of this fiscal year,can you also predict what will be the movement for the opening month for the new fiscal year 2012 eb3 philippines. hoping to hear from you. And by the way nice job CM
CM, thanks a lot as usual.
To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.
Doese the comment suggest that VO is also conservative in August VB and once the CIS data is available, it may move big in Sep? BTW, what is CIS data?
Hi
I have been doing my own calculations for the past 2 years.
The monthly demand data I have is below.
658 588 675 743 750 808 836 993
this is the aprox data available with me starting from May till December 2002 eb3 category. Since the EB3 date has moved by 1 month can I assume 658 visa numbers are either approved, or ported to EB2, etc ? To be on the dream side can I assume that there was some spill over ? I read all the post above and I know that spill over is not possible if EB2 is not current.
My case is Nov 2002 and CM will be able to predicct my case based on the data available with him monthly basis or the data provided above.
Demand data shows that there is a reduction of only 100 to me and in the posting it is mentioned that 500 for prior to 2003 Jan. The reduction happened only in May 2002 or what?(just because it progressed by another 700 cases.
Awesome calculations, thanks for your efforts dude
is there a hard and fast rule when they are going to apply vertical spill over vs horizontal spillover? like horizontal only happens in the last bulletin etc ?
when comparing the movement for last year sept which moved around 5k, which is close to horizontal spillover from eb2 row-m-p
All spillover numbers need to be used by September 2011 and will not be carried over to FY 2012. Since any new 485 filing needs at least 2 - 3 months for approval. So the other best option to use the spillover number is to allocate it for pre approved eb3 cases ( both ROW and I,C) and exhaust them by Sep 11.
Does above makes sense?
CM, AsWQ,
Spill over down to EB3 is highly welcome... But there are not enough visa numbers to fill in the adjudicated cases in EB2 (around 10K) how can I dream a case where there will be spill over to EB3.
CM... can you look into my question below with monthly data....
Hi CM,
what are the chances there is less that 2k spill over is available.
CM,
I have exactly the same questions. I am not as good in calculations as you are, but, my understanding of numbers leads me to the same doubts. Please clarify when possible.
And thank you very much for your blog. Really appreciate your efforts. I see your calculations as very reliable and believe any misses are due to the lack in transparency and predictability of the system (GC process) and not your fault (as a matter of fact, I dont even blame USCIS, realize they have a herculean task at hand !). I just wish everyone understood this better. Thank you for your time.
May God bless you and family !!!
It totally depends upon where we will end up in September visa bulletin. Even if we will reach PD 08 July 2007, after that we still need 2874 more visas for EB2-IC to cross PD July 2007. This is plainly on visible demand used from demand data without including PWMBs. Expected PWMB until 08Mar07 was 1175, we did not even considered them in the above calculation. I firmly believe any PWMBs until July visa bulletin have good chances to get approved by September 30 or even in October where USCIS tend to use some unused visa numbers from last fiscal year.
Other than those, total PWMBs until July 2007 is around 10,605. Even if we assume from the economic recession and other reasons you mentioned only 50% are eligible to pursue this, numbers still come out to be 5,303. So without crossing July 2007, for next fiscal year, EB2-IC has demand of 5303+2874 = 8177.
Of these, EB2-I demand is 5032 and EB2-C will be around 3145 (including PWMBs) after 08 July 2007. Let’s not even consider porting in this case. These will be enough to keep dates stalled until Q1 and late Q2. Once DOS will reach in Q2, like this year it will start looking at half yearly projected demand for EB1. If at this point, annual visa limit for the EB2-IC (or any of the country) is exhausted due to these numbers, it will start looking into using this number. DOS/USICS are constrained to use only 30% of these numbers in first three quarters (but they made exceptions this year) . This move totally depends upon number of visas it has.
As per movement, it totally depends upon demand and DOS will have no clue about it. So movement will be based on usual trend (around 3000 visa numbers each month for EB2-IC). So even if expected spillover is 15000-20000, movement will be only 5-8 months at most at first chance. If after this movement they will not receive this much application, dates will move more. But if dates will move until March 2008 anytime in next FY 2012, will bring 18,264 EB2-I application and 2,619 more EB2-C application after taking into account I-140 conversion factor. Even considering most optimistic case of only still hoping only 75% are eligible to pursue this anymore more, total demand from july 2007 until March 2008 – (0.75 x (18264+2619)) = 15662.
Above numbers from July 2007-march 2008 and demand from 8July 07 to cross July 2007 = 15662 + 8177 = 23,839. So any spillover between 18000 + 5600 (annual limit) will be sufficient to cover this. I personally do not expect much spillover next year from EB1 and EB2-ROW. Taking all this into account dates can maximum move next year into March-May 2008 in late Q2 or early Q3 and might not retrogress below March 2008, if we will receive atleast 18000 spillover next year.
Above holds true if dates will only reach July 2007 for this fiscal year and best case if we will receive 5500 visa numbers for rest of the fiscal year.
It should be noted no porting is considered in above scenario and PWMBs are assumed 50% eligible.
It can be either way, EB1 or Eb2-ROW (basket of your chosice) . But there is only one basket left and other is exhausted for simplicity. In actuality numbers come from all over the place. (usually it less EB1 and more Eb2-ROW). To keep calculations simple and easy to understand, we assumed 8000 is completely used and EB1 is left over.
Around 2-3rd week of December 2005
I believe USCIS never goes back and look into available aanual quota for EB category and FB category until last quarter of YEAR. This determination of the worldwide numerical limitations calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States. So alonwith this data, USCIS looked into porting cases for EB3-I and other demand. When this was done USCIS was late in providing data to DOS for July bulletin (not August Bulletin) and hence demand data was not released and DOS assumed annual worlwide limit and some demand based on available visas to predict mvoement for EB2-IC or in such for EB category.
I do not expect spillvoer for EB3 category for this year. FOr DOS to make any decision on movement, all it saw was demand is reduced by 500. When data is provided to DOS it is not provided in breakdown of months but in demand for it to cross each year. VO saw reduction in demand for 500 and saw the oportunity to use that reduction in demand and avaialble annual quota to move cut-off dates 700th eligible applicant's PD.
Novemeber 2002 PD will current by next year sometime depending upon porting for EB3 in next year.
You are right Neospeed, mostly spillover which are less are used later in case there is sudden surge in demand. We know EB1 was suppose to provide high spillover so mostly it is exhausted by now and next bulletin's movement will come from EB2-ROW-M-P. But for simplicty and ease in projecting data we assume 8000 EB2-ROW is used and rest of the spillvoer will come from EB1. At end of the day, all baskets needs to get exhausted.
That is still my worry but who knows. Usually movement in last bulletin for FY is always been less than July-Aug bulletin.
Hi CM
People have been talking about the reduction in demand data by 500. But I see only 100 i.e 6500 to 6400 for prior 2003 Jan
STill they advanced by 1 month to cover around 700 applications.
Is it not right?
PM_GCSeeker
Yes that could been case if dateswere today at july 2007 but actually dates ate only upto April 2007 and there is very less chance whole backlog until July 2007 will be cleared and hence no extra visas available for EB3 for this year.
PM , It is 6900 (not 6500) to 6400 from June to August. That is why 500.
Hi Mr CM.
Any predictions on a September 5th, 2007 EB2-I PD -- this calender year?
thanks
Hi CM, sorry if I missed it, but can you give some analysis why Aug VB movement for EB2-IC is only a little more than one month? Thanks in advance
CM,
Great work ...Your awesome ... Hope we see some movement in march 2012
My PD is Dec 2007 when can we accept current and How long will take to get GC after filing 485 .
We appreciate your answer .May God bless you and your family
Hi CM
My PD is June 2009. Can you give a calculated guess when can i even expect for filing i 485.
Thanks in advance
CM,
Sorry for repeating. PD EB2 I- Dec 2007 , is there almost a good chance that I will be able to file for EAD in 2012 ? If so which quarter you think could this happen . I'm just a little scared if I have to wait for it in 2013.
APpreciate your analysis
Hi CM,
do you see any chance for EB2 becom current between sep2011 to sep 2012
Please make this a separate blog post as your analysis is awesome and really detailed and is lost in the comments.
for a pd of august 9 2007 under eb2 India when can one expect to apply for I-485
Thank You!
Let's wait until Sep 2011 bulletin then look into it.
For FY 2012 you have good chance for sure. For rhis FY let's wait and see.
Because EB5 did not yield as expected and EB1 optimistic figure of 6-8K does not look that practical. But there is some developing news on 19K unused visa numbers for EB category. It seems like too much left but who knows.
We have to wait and watch for Sep 2011
Done. Thank you for bringing it to our attention.
For probably next year but there is some contradicting information out there. I do not know what to make out of it. As of now all I can say is June-July 2007 is a possibility.
Thanks Sree
To early to say anything now but general rule is 5 years from your PD. Please check our GC calculator for this.
Thank you for your kind words and wishes.
Thank you everyone.
My PD is Eb2-I 2008 March . Is there any chance of getting my EAD by 2012 Dec?
CM, my PD May 24 07 ....EB2 I... possibilities in coming month ? I see it as borderline given analysis ... thoughts?
CM,
First I would like to appreciate and thank you for taking time in doing the analysis and providing the predictions, your analysis is helping lot of people to plan and make important decisions.
I have a question and request, my PD is Feb 2008 (EB2 India) and I am hoping my date to be current in FY 2012. If it gets current in FY2012, could you predict approximately in which month my PD would be current ?
Thanks
AAA
CM,
Hi and thank you for your helpfull information
I am in Eb3Row with pd 2 oct 2006
Can you estimate when my pd will be current .
Is it possible to let me know that the trend would be faster or slower in new fiscal year?
I appreciate your hardworking
Thanks for the reply CM. Would you please share the source of the news about 19K unused EB visa numbers? I knew it was spread on some bulletin board but wonder if you got if from other sources. Thanks
Hi CM,
Thanks for the information provided here., For EB3 hope there will be no more retrogression, Cm what will be your pedictions for EB3 next fiscal year? My pd is feb. 2006.
I am currently working here in Middle east, it is possible to have my interview here in US embassy?
Hoping I have my interview this year, any predictions?
Thanks a ton!!
No I did not receive it from any other source. It was posted on www.mitbbs.com and lnk was posted on our site. From what ever I can decipher, I have added in that post. But I do not have such information from anywhere.
In any case if someone or (group of people) would like to use FOIA to get such information from Department of State, here is the link to get it - http://www.state.gov/m/a/ips/c36405.htm
Getting such information involves money, anywhere from $25 to $250.00
hello CM .. FY 2011 for FB2 says till 2005 like what its end last year what that mean ?
and this month there is no movement and am really upset :(
do you think Sep or Oct gonna be like this ? :(
thank you CM u r always good to me and cheer me up
CM
My priority date is 31st July 2007 and my 485 is filed but i have to file my wife 485.
What are my chances this year
Its EB2 India July 2007
Chances are less but if 19K that is claimed through FOIA is true then may be.
I think you will mae it this year unless there are no visas left.
CM- mine is PD May14 07, EB2I any possibilities for next month? pls advice
What I don't understand is why EB3-ROW-M-P doesn't recieve any of the spill over. Is that due to the PD for EB2-I-C not being current?
CM- mine is PD May14 07, EB2I any possibilities for next month current? pls advice
I believe you will be current in late Q2 or early Q3. This is only true if dates will not cross PD July 2007 in September 2011. If news about 19K is true dates can cross into July 2007 this year. I have no basis for authenticity of 19K other than that mentioned on mitbbs.com.
Your PD will be current by next year around July-Sep timeframe next year. Trend could be little better next year now when EB3-M-P, both share same cut-off date. This means EB3-ROW will get more visa numbers than this year.
I think you will be current around December-January 2012.Interview depends upon if your application is documetarily qualified, which I believe should be by now.
I think so Noor. It will be little slow for rest of year. There can be more retrogression for FB category.
Chances are 50-50, CAS
Oh yes, I think anyone in May has good chances.
Yes, EB3-ROW-M-P will not receive unused visa numbers until EB2-IC is current or there is no known demand for EB2-IC.
Good possibilities.
hi! Sir, you always make me hopeful, my PD is 1/23/2009 EB2 china, would you please tell me when can I submit my i-485
Do I need aubmit another EB-1b?
It will take atleast 2-3 years more. If you ahve option for EB1-B, I will go ahead and file it. There is not harm in trying that. At most it will be denied but you have this EB2 working in parallel as long as they are for different jobs. But if you are professor or outstanding researcher, EB1-B makes more sense if you lot of published technical papers and you work is cited in other journals.
Hi CM, is your prediction for eb3row-p-m considered to be conservative? do you think there's a slight possiblity that it would reach jan 06 to maximize visa usage for this year? I am eb3-p under consular processing pd dec 20,2005. thanks!
Hi CM,
I've been following your blog from a couple of months and I really appreciate your amazing and detailed analysis. Even the GC calculator is pretty helpful to atleast clear some ambiguity. But with the recent developments, do you think it will cross atleast June 15th'07 for EB2 India in the upcoming Sept vb?
Best Regards
MR
what is this mean? "At most it will be denied but you have this EB2 working in parallel as long as they are for different jobs. "
For EB2IC Current demand looks to be about 10K and hopping to reduce that number to 3K in the next demand data for September. My guess is that there will be 5/6K adjudicated 485 application left for EB2IC by October 2011.
If the date for EB2 IC does not move until May 2012, I suspect USICS is going to waste a lot of GCs in 2012 unless they use to excess numbers for EB3 adjudicated 485s. Because the average time to process new 485 application is about 5/6 months.
My PD is October 2007 EB2, not sure why NVC asked me to pay the CP processing fee in March 2011. In fact I opted for adjustment of status during I140.
Anyway I don’t think the dates will move more than few weeks in September bulletin.
Let us wait and see
Hello My priority date is Nov 2007. When do you think that will become current?
Is the spillover for next year 2012 expected to yield 20000+ ?
If so should it not help EB2 India in 2012 to reach atleast Dec 2007 or Jan 2008 ? I'm assuming that whatever spillover might yield next month for this fiscal year should be enough to clear our waiting PWMBs until July 2007 r ? Somehow it wigs me out to even think of any stagnation next year ..dont mean to be paranoid but there is some dubious buzz about 21K unused leftover for EB for this fiscal itself , if it is any true will that be accounted for in the next month's bulletin . I would assume if 20 K is applied it should move Eb2 quite broadly possibly in to Q1 of 08.....any thoughts gurus
Hi CM -
I just read your analysis today and felt happy that atleast someone talking in numbers with some good source of information. Thank you for such a great job, it helps people!
My PD is June 26, 2007. Got married afterwards. Waiting to file 485 for my wife. What are the possibilities this year? Either Sep bulletin or atleast OCT bulletin?
By the way it is EB2
I'm EB3 Phil. with PD of Jan. 06. When do you think I can get my GC? Thanks in advance for the reply.
Hello CM
Im at Eb3 philippines Priority date Dec 2007 when do you think can i adjust my status?
CM,
I have a question to you.
I am current in Aug Bulletin, Today i went for Medical, CS recommended me to get MMR vaccine two times, one with PCP in this week and another round after 4 weeks. If i need to wait to get another round of vaccine after 4 weeks, it will easily waste too much time to file 485. If i file 485 on Aug 1st with the 1st round of vaccine records, what are the chances of getting RFE?. what do you suggest ?. Do you want me to file on Aug 1st with 1st round of vaccine records? or wait for 2nd round of vaccine records and file after Aug 20th?.
Thanks
MB
Hi CM,
I was going through some comments on another website regarding the authenticity of 19,000 visa numbers availability for EB category, it looks like there is but how can we trace how much would be available for EB2-IC in September 2011 blletin. Your thoughts and work is highly appreciated.
The link is as follows:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/printthread.php?t=4&pp=25&page=187
Someone did quite a bit of calculations to arrive at this and would need your review and thoughts.
Thanks and Best Regards
Hi CM
what is your opinion about sep 2011 visa bulletin for EB3 ROW?
Do you think Mexico will have leap forward movement again and there is a bit movement for us ?I will be glad if you mention your opinion.
thanks inadvance
Hi PBTX, I ahd already commented on this yesterday when data was released. By comments are under article "EB2 India and China - What to expect for FY 2012?". I will post comments here again for completeness. I will go through calculation on posted link and let you know what i understand later today.
__________________________________
This is useful. Note data until March 2011 for I-485.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Res...
I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September. Even if we think 9K can be used for all other categories, EB2-IC can receive anywhere from 5k-10K. Even EB3-ROW can end up getting some number.
P.S. This is quick analysis. There may be some errors.
and one more question .Is it possible let me know about my friend's with pd january 2007 .Is it possible to estimate that when her pd will be current
thanks for your helpful information
PBTX, looking at the site you mentioned, I see Neospeed has posted our analysis over there. Which calculations do you want me to check and comment on? Please leave the poster's name and I can comment on that.
What are the chances for priority date nov 2007?
Hi CM,
I appreciate your effort on this blog.
Performance data released by uscis(http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/i-485-data-2011-april.pdf) only has approvas from local offices. Any idea why it doesn't have service center approval?
If 19K spill over speculation is based on the performance data,
that clould be wrong and Aug movement doesn't support this 19K number at all.
Hello CM,
Thank you for all the hardwork you put into this blog and for your patience in answering our questions and comments. I was wondering why the latest demand data has no input for EB3 Phil.? Do you think priority dates will move to Jan. 06 for the Sept. 2011 visa bulletin? If not, when do you think dates will move to or beyond Jan. 06 for EB3 Phil.? Thank you and more power!
My calculation for EB3-ROW-M-P is more on realistic (or little optimistic) side but it does not consider any spillover available for EB3-ROW. Dates for EB3-ROW might move little more if calculation and news on 19K visa available for September is true. IN that case dates can move to 2nd or 3rd week of December but will not cross into January 2006 for sure.
MR - June 15th 2007 looks like achievable after recent USCIS published data on visa usage or approvals until March 2011 for FY 2011. Anything near 4000 will make you current this year. If you will ask me percentage wise, yes 95%,
I was thinking that your EB2 petition is not EB2-NIW. if it is EB2-NIW then job does not matter since EB1-B and EB2-NIW both do not require PERMs. But if your earlier petition is in regular EB2 category (not NIW), then jobs should be vastly different and more research intensive so that you can justify that you are outstanding researcher or professor.
There are cases which are processed in 3 months. Every July EB2-IC filers has good chance to get GC by September 30.
If not this bulletin then in Q2 or Q3.
If 20K is left, we should remember it will be used for usual monthly movement for other EB categories including EB1 and EB2-ROW and any number then remaining will come to EB2-IC. I believe after all monthly allocation if 20K is left for September, EB2-IC will only receive 10-11K MOST. This number is 2000-3000 more than required to cross July 2007 but not enough to clear PWMBs.
Thank you for your kind words. Chances for you is good. In numbers, I believe 90% or more to become current in September.
IN October-November Visa Bulletin PD will reach January 2006. After that if you are a CP case, you can get GC in month or two time.
Anywhere around 3-4 years minimum we believe.
DId you do your MMR titer? Was result Negative? If it is negative then you have to take both doses. One dose is no good. All adolescents should receive 2 doses, given no less than 4 weeks apart.
Anyways if your doctor is ready to submit I-693 form with first dose given date the you can submit that, In that case you should be ready for RFE which can increase your processing time by few more days (15-30 days). Personally I would have submitted after second dose to avoid any RFEs later.
No more leap forward movement for EB3-M. EB3-M will have to move with EB3-ROW for rest of year.. EB3-ROW can move upto 1 Dec 2005 in September visa bulletin.
FOr EB3-ROW, PD January 2007, atleast 1.5 years.
unicorn : 19K numbers were derived from this data --> http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf and not from the data you posted.
That was an error on part of DOS. Dates may not move into Jan -2006 for next 2 bulletins.
Hi CM,
Thanks for your prompt reply. All I wanted was your best guess on how many visas could be available for EB2-IC in September bulletin, if 19000 number looks accurate based on what you have calculated and also what neospeed presented on another website.
If I understood it right, 19000 can lead to significant movement in September.
Once again hats off to your knowledge on this subject.
Thanks and Best Regards
PBTX
PBTX - Please be warned those 19K are not spillover but visas left for use from 140K annual limit for whole of EB category. Monthly allocation for each country and category for EB will come out from this. Anything left after that will be for EB2-IC.
Thank you so much CM! I hope they release an updated demand data with numbers for EB3 Phil. so we can calculate more accurately.
Thanks for the reply CM! I do hope I can get my GC this year, it's been such a long and agonizing wait.
Thanks for reply CM.
So now we have add 42K+9K field office approvals. which is around 52 K. which leads to 6K (140K -(52K*2+30K)).
No need to add field office approvals, if you will scroll down the PDF that I recently posted, it tells you that it includes "USCIS Offices/Centers: Service-wide
By: Office of Performance and Quality (OPQ), Data Analysis and Reporting Branch (DARB) - ST"
So for simplicity, if you will see I-485 -Employment based approvals in that PDF, it is 45,981, so 140K - (2*45.98K + 30 K) ~ 19K (assuming same demand for last 6 months).
CM
thank you for everything
It is the best site i have ever seen
So I won't see you again in H'mond?
CM,
I am in bit dilemma,
I can file on Aug 1st with 1st round of vaccinations to USCIS. If i need to wait for the 2nd round , then i need to wait atleast Aug 22nd to file. This is wasting 3 weeks easily. I am thinking of to get EAD and AP in the mean time with filing early, if i get RFE , then i can submit 2nd round of vaccinations to USCIS.
I gae blood test yesterday to my PCP, depends up on the results, he will give 1st shot soon.
Please let me know your suggestion.
Thanks
MB
If you have given blood test to your PCP now for titer then why are you worried about taking doses. Most of the kids would have MMR dose taken during usual vaccinations. Do not worry your results will come Positive (note for MMR titer positive is good and negative is bad)..
Hi Bret
H'mond has done everything for us to reveal and release our feeling and has helped us throughout retrogression.I appreciate all of the sites that make their effort for us .H'mond is like the best friend of mine ,but i like this site too because of prompt reply they give us and also musilo that do their best .
CM...
"could require retrogression of some of the September Family First preference cut-off dates. This action may be necessary to keep visa issuances within the respective annual preference numerical limits. If this were to occur they could be expected to return to the previous cut-off date for October"
do you mean its gonna get back to the cut-off dates like its end last year to 2005 or back to July /2003 .. ?!!!!!!
As per this new data that is released by USCIS today - http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Application-for-Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2011-may.pdf , it suggests total I-485 application received until May 2011 are 47,721 I-485 applications to adjust status;
Based on previously released USCIS Approval/Receipt information until March 2011 - http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf
I-485 Approved were – 45,981
I-485 Received were – 36,492
Approval/Receipt ratio – 1.26
Assuming same ratio for this newly released data until May 2011 – Approvals can be near – 1.26 x 47,721 = 60,128.
This is for 8 months. For full year FY2011 – it becomes 12 x 60,128/8 = 90,192.
Again adding spillover used so far, total consumption becomes = 90,192 + 30,000 = 120,192
So for full year for September bulletin, again 140,000 – 120,192 ~ 19K.
One more to validate 19K news from www.mitbbs.com
Note - It does not include CP demand.
Does it gonna change the predictions for EB2- I. Hoping mine gets current this bulletin i.e. June 8 2007 EB2 India.
Hi CM,
I agree to your statement that 19,000 is for all EB category and after all the demands are filled, than only remaining visa numbers will be allocated to EB2-IC. Any guess what range this might be? I understand you stated that it can be anywhere between 2500-5500 Is this still true per your knowledge? Hope to hear from you soon.
Thanks and Best Regards
PBTX
based on new analysis ,What are the possibility of 31st Aug 2007, EB2I gets current or getting GC.
or pl. advise the timeframe when it will get current.
Thank you CM for excellent analysis. Based on your above comment and other related comments, now we have credible information that 19K visas are available for EB category for september bulletin and understand that these are not spillover visas as such.Can you please let us know (a) out of 19K how many visas could be allocated to EB2-India category for september bulletin (b) approximate number of spillover visas for EB2-India september bulletin ?
Now taking into consideration both (a) and (b), can you please let us know what priority date EB2-India could reach in september bulletin ?
Thanks again for your excellent work.Appreciate it.
I heard from mitbbs that SO is not more than 7,000 left for EB2 for Sept.
Hi CM. With regards to the 19000 extra visas, and its the last month of the fiscal year 2011, do you think EB3 ROW,M,P will advance 6 weeks the most? How about EB2IC? thank you!
Hi CM. I have eb3-p may 2006, any chance for me in 2o12?
Thank you, Sir.
Thnak you very much! We hope the same!!
CM,
Few questions to you.
1) How it will affect processing time when some one get RFE on Medical, Tax Return, Kids etc?
2) is it bad to get RFE for any thing? Is there will be negative impact in the processing?
3) When attorney responds to RFE, How muc time on average will take into processing?
Thanks
RP
Thank you K.sh!!!!
It means it may retrogress for only September bulletin and then it will come back to current VB date in October. This is only for F1 category.
I do not think so. We have not included any CP demand in this. CP demand can be anywhere from 5%-15%. Taking 5%, CP demand will make these 121,000 used EB visa number for FY 2011 until now to 127000 visas used for EB category by AOS + CP demand.
Then we should also remember that as per released USCIS data, I-140 stats until March 2011 suggests that for 42,096 receipts there are only 30,820 approvals. So even if we assume that this difference was constantly maintained for entire year, there are still chances some of these 12000 would contain some EB2-ROWs. They will also use some of these remaning visa numbers. If even 10% of these are EB2-ROW, we can have 1200 demand from EB2-ROW. Then addition to this usual monthly demand for EB2-ROW, which can be anywhere from 500 -1500.
We do not know anything EB1 demand. At this point when USCIS processing time has come down to 4 months, we can see some of these EB1s also getting some attention. These EB1 approvals will take some visa numbers. I think in month of August, we can see many EB1 approvals as movement for EB2-IC is only 5 weeks and then with reduced backlog, some good numbers of EB1 approvals are expected.
In general EB3 demand for a month can be anywhere from 2400 + 4(233) = 3332.
So now if we wil consider all these aspects, what EB2-IC can expect is
= 19000 - (CP + EB2-ROW(due to I-140) + regular EB2-ROW + EB1 + EB3) demand
= 19000 - (6000 + 1200 + 1000 + 1000 + 3332) = 6468
Thus numbers available for EB2-IC can be anywhere from 3500 - 8000. So movement can be anywhere from 1 June 2007 - 22 July 2007. It all depends upon demand for last month and I have no basis to come up with exact numbers.
42,096
30,820
MP, please see my comments below.
I would say August 31st 2007 will only be in late Q2 for FY 2012 if it will not be current this September. Chances are for this September could be very less.
If that is true then I wont be surprised.
EB3-ROW-M-P will only advance 4 weeks at most and best case 5 weeks.
Based on this 19K information, it can be anywhere from 3500 -8000 leaning more towards mid range about 5000-6000
May be not. We will know as dates will progress for next year. You can expect somewhere around December 2012 -Feb 2013
Getting RFE is not bad. It is just that they require more information. If you will get an RFE and if you reply in timely manner, you can expect to be processed as soon as RFE response is received. RFE can increase processing time by 2 months.
CM,
That is so close to my PD of 26 June 2007 and I am also a PWMB - looks like I am about to miss the boat for the second time in FY2011.
If Sept VB is somewhere in June 2007 and I miss the boat, what is the likely scenario for FY2012?? Will it be a few months during the spillover season (like in FY 2011) or will they start moving slowly at a time? Nervous few weeks ahead, I suppose.
Thank you for your help and patience.
TR
CM,
Forgot - EB2I
Thank you
TR
Hi CM,
Any chance of EB2 I become current in september bulleting ?
for the august bulletin there was a hope that it can be current but ...... now since we hope that 19k unused visa can be used for september bulletin dont you think there is a chance for eb2 to become current and later in october they will retrogade ?
Yes, they are going to make it current in the Sep VB. There are also reports that USCIS is soon going to start pick-up and drop-off services for picking up the 485 applications and dropping off GCs to your door step.
Don't they already do that? come on man! the guy is just curious. Can you leave your uncleji mentality behind?
Updated article to capture few notes from last few days.
Hopefully you will not miss the boat again this year.
If Sep VB ends somewhere in June 2007 before your PD then you can expect to become current in October-November frame. Dates will only stall once dates will reach July 2007. As PWMBs will make movement slow. July months has approx 1000 applications for each week movement. This excludes PWMBs. Starting next fiscal year, DOS can only allot 233 visas per month. But for June, density is not high and you can expect to be current in Oct-Nov if your PD is not current in Sep VB.
Unfortunately, it will not be current for long time. 19K number is visa for last month allocation and not spillover.
Hi! Just wondering if march 06 will be current by dec 2005? Thanks so much.
Hi just wondering if march 06 will be current by dec 2011z by fhe way im eb3P. Thanks so much! Great job!
CM,
Thank you for the details. I really appreciate your efforts in this website.
TR
hi CM! great work here. Anyway, any chance for March 06 become current before 2011 end? Thanks a lot and more power!
by the way im EB3. Thanks
Awesome analysis related to 19K leftover visa.
Thanks CM
Thank you very much for such good and effortful following-up analysis. let's hope all works out as the way it is.
My Hunmble opinion check this out website, my prioritydates.com..
My Humble opinion check this out website, my prioritydates.com..
Hi CM,
My PD is July 27th,EB2 I.What do you think of chances this september or will it be in 2012 and if so which quarter likely?
By the way year is 2007.
We are all looking forward to get EB2-IC past july 2007 but what CO has in mind who knows. He may even keep EB2-IC around June 2007 if he wants to gauge porting from EB3 to EB2 and PWMB applications. I myself have PD in first half of July and eagerly waiting for good news since august first week. Based on CM calcs, we may get 3500-8000 visas for EB2-IC. If we get 8000 visas, we will surely get past your PD. Hope this answers your question.
Thanks
Mine is 31st July EB2 India.
However my 485 is filed ,i have to file for my wife
Hi CM,
My PD is Jan 2008 and my H1 expires in June 2012 (6 years). My last H1 stamp was received in 2007 and expired in 2009. I applied for extension and have not travelled outside US since then. I am planning to visit India in next few months. My doubt is can there be issues in getting H1 stamped? Since less than 1 year remains and I am also a potential immigrant (filed for GC), I work for a consulting company. Also what happens if my PD becomes current while I am there. My visit would be 3-4 weeks long.
Thank you for your time and valuable advice.
MJ
Hi Guest,
With recent cases at Consulate where passports are getting held for 3-4 months with an excuse to get security clearance, it is advised that no need to go for H1B stamping if you have Advance Parole documents valid for the time period you are out of US. All you have to do is entry on AP rather than on H1B. In case you get your GC you can tell at port of entry that your GC has been approved but you will still like to use AP for entry. CM what are your thoughts on the same?
Thanks
PBTX
PBTX and Guest you can correct me if I am wrong. If Guest is from EB2 India/China then that probably means that he might not yet have been able to file for I-485 and would not have recieved AP.
AFAIK H1-B is dual intent Visa and so you should be fine with your H1-B stamping even if you have been sponsored for a GC as long as you have all the valid documents.
CM any thoughts?
Do we really need to renew IELTS as requirement for Visa Certificate? Would it mean that no visa will be issued. Please clarifiy, by the way i'm EB3-P. Thank you Sir CM.
Any chances for June 2006 EB3 within the year
Thanks CM for your great analysis.
Hi CM,
Thank you for the great analysis. This is by far the most meaningful analysis I have come across yet. My PD is 20th July 2007, EB2 India. Can you guesstimate when this might be current?
Yes, I did.
Thanks PBTX and Rahul. Yes I have not filed for I-485. Sorry for not mentioning it before. Thanks for the valuable advice!
ooooooooh ok but do you think this movement will stay the same for the rest of 2011 and 2012 for us or its will get back to the normal race ?!!!!
Hello CM,
Thanks for the great job.
My question is my priory date became current in July. My husband is the primary applicant and he got his approval notice last week, so did my daughter. But I haven't received mine. We applied together. BTW, I do have my own H1B, and an approved I-140 of myself. Can this be the reason that I didn't receive my approval with the rest of the family.
Thank you for your help always
Hong
May be not. I think it might become current in Jan or Feb 2012. We would know more as time progress.
Thank you for reading.
Chances can be somewhere around 60-70% but quite possible. Personally I think 15th July 2007 is more plausible. Once dates will reach July 2007, cut-off date will stall for some time and then advance later in Q2 FY 2012.
Thank you for your kind words.
CAS, same as above.
Rahul and PBTX has already covered all aspects of it. Since H1B is dual intent, getting H1B stamped should not be a problem There are lot of instances where consulates in India are issuing 221(g) asking for extra background check especially for consulting companies which basically need to prove employer-employee relationship and client letter. If you think your company would back you staying overseas 3-4 months in case you received 221(g) then I would travel without hesitation else would also look into Canada as an option if it is financially and logically feasible. 221(g) issue rate in Canada is less. Choice is yours.
In case your PD becomes current when you are there, either you have to come back to US and then file AOS (you have to be in US to file AOS) or opt for CP (would not recommend unless H1B is denied).
Perfect!!!
Yes IELTS should not be expired on the day of interview.
If EB3-ROW, yes very likelihood.
Chances can be somewhere around 60-70% but quite possible. Personally I think 15th July 2007 is more plausible. Once dates will reach July 2007, cut-off date will stall for some time and then advance later in Q2 FY 2012. It all depends upon number of PWMBs. May be, I am not sure dates may move little in October until USCIS realize number of PWMBs and convey it to DOS.
THis movement may start progress little by little starting October 2011.
No that should not be a reason. It is common that cases for husband and wife may get approved at different times. I would wait for a week. If not then I will open a SR or talk to level 2 rep at National Service Center to follow up on your status. Good Luck.
Thankyou much.Your work is awesome.
Hi CM
Please let me know that our Priority date is the day of starting I-140 or approval of it?
I renewed my visa screen 3 months ago.On the day of my interview ,which is in one year,Do i need ielts again ?My visascreen will be expired in 2016.
thanks inadvance
just want to clarify during interview IELTS should not be expired or the Visa screen cert?
if my pd is january 3 2007 under eb3 phil CP when will i get current?
is there a chance for retrogression under eb3 next fiscal year.
thanks
How is it possible to process 2008 March.. ? These visas should be used before October 1st.. By the time they get the applicaion ..process them it will be new year for them... so are we going to lose these visas or what?
No, known demand... means anything after July 2007?
Hi CM,
My priority became current in July. I filed with husband in July 2007. While I just got a request from INS to re-fingerprint. Is this good news or bad news? How long does it normally take to get approval after the second finger print. It is very odd that my husband and my daughter has already received their approval notice.
Thank you
Hong
hi my PD is 6 July 2006 EB3 ROW. When will it b current? Any Chances till end of this year?
Hi CM,
My visa screen will expire on April 2012. On the other hand my IELTS was issued last 2007. Do I need to take IELTS again before my interview? or no need since my Visa Screen is not yet expired? Thank you.
Hi CM,
Do I need to submit DS-230 again at the time of consular interview to update my data? Since it is almost 3 years already at the NVC.Thank you.
Usually Priority Date is the date when PERM was filed. If you are nurse who is not required to file PERM based on Schedule A then your I-140 applied date is your PD.
Both.
No retrogression is expected for next year for EB3-P atleast as of now. You can be current anywhere from 2 years. This may change as dates will progress.
Person asked about getting EAD in FY 2012. if we get atleast 7000 or more numbers from 19 K then dates will cross into July 2007 and then minimum spillover expected for next year will make March 2008 current to receive EAD. It is still not possible to guess if person with PD March 2008 will receive green card next year.
Yes. No known demand means no documentarily qualified individuals, in this case means individuals with PD after July 2007.
It is pretty normal to ask for FP before approving I-485 cases for very old filed cases like in your case from July 2007. Once your FP result is received from FBI, it can take only 2 weeks. I will assume you can expect total wait time of 30 or so days.
Not by end of this year but may be around March.
No need unless Visa Screen is expired.
Unless they ask for it again.
Hi CM,
I just want to know if applicant is already docs qualified does it mean all the other members of family petitioned were already docs qualified.?and thus that mean our petitioner have already paid the visa fee bills for us ?? hope you can shed some light to this ..
thanks a lot
Hello CM im under EB3 Phil. Consular processing PD of sept8 2006.when do you think i will be current,if there will be no retrogression in the next fiscal year 2012.
thanks in advance.
Hello, My PD is May 24th 2006 EB3 ROW. When do you think I will become current?
Excellent blog by the way.
Hi CM
Can you please tell me what is the EB3 Demand data 3332 ? What is that number and how did you get that number?
Thanks
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