Family-Based
- Family 1st – FB1 remains unchanged across all regions at May 1, 2004 for ROW, China and India, at March 8, 1993 for Mexico and at April 15, 1996 for Philippines.
- Family 2A –FB2A moves forward by four (4) months to July 22, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by four and a half (4.5) months to June 1, 2008.
- Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remains unchanged at July 1, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to October 1, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to December 1, 2000..
- Family 3rd – most countries moved to August 2001; Philippines to November 1992; Mexico retrogressed to April 1992.
- Family 4th – most countries moved to April 2000; Philippines stalled at 15 May 1988; Mexico stalled at March 1996.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 remains current across the board.
- EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India both move forward by almost five (5) weeks to April 15, 2007.
- EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to November 1 , 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by only one (1) week to July 8, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) month to June 1, 2002. EB-3 Mexico moves forward by over five (5) months to November 1, 2005.
- The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by over five (5) months to May 1, 2005 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines. It moves forward by one (1) month to June 1, 2002 for India .
- Employment 4th – still current in all categories
- Employment 5th – still current in all categories
VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from August Visa Bulletin
Family-sponsored: Heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family First preference could require retrogression of some of the September Family First preference cut-off dates. This action may be necessary to keep visa issuances within the respective annual preference numerical limits. If this were to occur they could be expected to return to the previous cut-off date for October, the first month of the new fiscal year.
Employment-based: No Notes !!!!
Determination of annual limit for this fiscal year
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO. (Also hints why no demand data was released, since complete data from CIS was received on June 9th and July bulletin was released on June 8th.)
The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2011 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2011 are as follows:
Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2011 the per-country limit is 25,620. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,320.
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 140,000
Our Analysis on EB Category after August Visa Bulletin Release
EB3-ROW-M-P - EB3 ROW moved by three weeks to November 01, 2005. As seen with last few months, EB3-ROW only used 1500 visas from the visible demand. EB3-Mexico has utilized 5085 visa numbers for this year and has reached same level as EB3-ROW-P. Going forward EB3-ROW-M-P will move together. Since EB-3 category will not receive any spillover, we expect EB3-M-P to move by 4 weeks to 01 December 2005 for this fiscal year. This movement is based on at least 3188 (ROW-2584 + M-304 + P-300 ) available visa numbers for EB3-ROW-M-P together. Please note, since each of these countries shares sames cut-off date, going forward for next month at least, they will share same cut-off date.
EB3-India - EB3 India moved one month due to decrease in demand due to porting case. Decrease in demand was 500. This along with monthly limit of 233, allowed total movement of 733 (Inventory upto May - Inventory upto April = 2710-2050). Even if there is no further reduction in demand due to porting, we still expect EB3-India to reach 15th June 2002 for this fiscal year just using 233 number of visas.
EB3-China - EB3-China may only move by a week or two for the coming bulletin. It is difficult to gauge movement for EB3-China due to high volume of invisible CP demand.
EB2-India & China - We believe EB2 India and China advanced to 15 April 2007 by utilizing at least 2580 additional unused visa numbers from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5.
Number of applicants from 08March07 to 15April07
[26469 + (28498-26469)/2] - [24383 + (26469 – 24383)/4 ]
= 27484 – 24904
= 2580
Till date visas used for this movement
= 22,875 (used upto 08Mar07) + 5,600 (annual quota) + 2,580 (used in this bulletin)
= 31,055
At this point of time we would like to revisit our potential spillover source for the current fiscal year. We know that EB1 was suppose to give us 12,000 unused visa. It was never clear to us whether it was a half-yearly or full-yearly projected numbers. After June 2011 released inventory, EB2-ROW was projected to have demand around 26,600 - 28,600 annual, yielding around 6000-8000 unused visa numbers. As per recent released EB5 visa usage number, it was quoted that EB5 demand can be as high as 4,260, thus yielding only 9,400 4230 = 5170 unused visa numbers. So putting these together with 5,600 annual quota for EB2-IC, available visas for EB2-IC becomes
EB1 + EB2-ROW + EB5 + EB2-IC annual quota
= 12000 + 8000 + 5170 +5600
= 30,770
Now from this, all we can conclude is for EB1, 12K was a projected demand for half year, but real demand did not convert into 24K. On average, we were hoping to get more 6K from EB1. But looking at the current movement, numbers expected now can be anywhere from 3K-6K. Of these expected EB1 numbers, we have already used 500 (31,055 - 30,770).
EB5 usage has been a very big disappointment (or tough one to digest) for this year ; instead of yielding 7000 unused visa, it would only yield(ed) 5170 visas.
Taking EB1 and EB5 demand into account, worst case movement for September bulletin will be based on use of 2,500 unused visa numbers while best case could be around the use of 5,500 unused visa numbers.
Once date will reach July 2007, new cases, PWMBs and some porting will slow down the movement for Q1 and early Q2. Like this year, we can expect significant movement of priority dates in late Q2 or early Q3 of FY 2012. Movement upto first quarter of 2008 is possible with some retrogression in late Q3. We should remember NVC fee bill is valid upto one year.
Update from www.mitbbs.com
On 18th July there was some update on this site that where they mentioned that someone talked to Mr. Oppenheim through FOIA or other means (please excuse my translation) and he mentioned that up until now only 121000 visas were used for EB category and at least 19k is still to be used in coming months.
The news on 19K visas available was confirmed in two ways as below
Method A
As per recent data released by USCIS until March 2011 for I-485- Employment Based.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf
I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91,962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September.No CP demand included.
Method B
As per data that was released by USCIS day before yesterday -http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Application-for-Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2011-may.pdf , it suggests total I-485 application to adjust status received until May 2011 are 47,721.
Based on previously released USCIS Approval/Receipt information until March 2011;
I-485 Approved were – 45,981
I-485 Received were – 36,492
Approval/Receipt ratio – 1.26
I-485 Received were – 36,492
Approval/Receipt ratio – 1.26
Assuming same ratio for this newly released data until May 2011 – Approvals can be near – 1.26 x 47,721 = 60,128.This is for 8 months.
For full year FY2011 – it becomes 12 x 60,128/8 = 90,192.
Again adding spillover used so far, total consumption becomes = 90,192 + 30,000 = 120,192
So visas available for September bulletin, again becomes 140,000 – 120,192 ~ 19K.
Other way to validate 19K news from www.mitbbs.com
Note - It does not include CP demand.
Again adding spillover used so far, total consumption becomes = 90,192 + 30,000 = 120,192
So visas available for September bulletin, again becomes 140,000 – 120,192 ~ 19K.
Other way to validate 19K news from www.mitbbs.com
Note - It does not include CP demand.
Out of these 19K how much can we expect for EB2-IC?
In above calculations we have not included any CP demand in this. CP demand can be anywhere from 5%-15%. Taking 5%, CP demand will make these 121,000 used EB visa number for FY 2011 until now to 127,000 visas used for EB category after including AOS + CP demand.
Then we should also remember that as per released USCIS data, I-140 stats until March 2011 suggests that for 42,096 receipts, there were only 30,820 approvals. So even if we assume that this difference was constantly maintained for entire year, there are still chances some of these 12000 would contain EB2-ROWs. Some of these remaining visa numbers from 19K will be used for such cases when they will be approved and become documentarily qualified. Even if 10% of these are EB2-ROW, we can have 1200 demand from EB2-ROW. Then addition to this we also have usual monthly demand for EB2-ROW, which can be anywhere from 500 -1500.
We do not know anything about EB1 demand. At this point when USCIS processing time has reduced to 4 months, we can see some of these EB1s can get attention. These EB1 approvals will take some visa numbers. I think in month of August, we can see many EB1 approvals as movement for EB2-IC is only 5 weeks for August bulletin. In addition with reduced backlog, some good numbers of EB1 approvals are expected in August.
In general EB3 demand for a month can be anywhere from 2400 + 4(233) = 3332.
So now if we will consider all these aspects, what EB2-IC can expect is
= 19000 - (CP + EB2-ROW(due to I-140) + regular EB2-ROW + EB1 + EB3) demand
= 19000 - (6000 + 1200 + 1000 + 1000 + 3332) = 6468
Thus numbers available for EB2-IC can be anywhere from 3500 - 8000. So movement can be anywhere from 1 June 2007 - 15 August 2007. It all depends upon demand for last month and we have no basis to come up with exact numbers.
I have not considered EB4 and EB5, which can take few 20-50 numbers here and there.Other than EB4-EB5, there are some PWMBs and dependents who has filed until July visa bulletin, who can become documentarily qualified by September 30.
EB2-IC September 2011 Priority Date Movement
-VJ
Thank you for your details. Appreciate it as always.
To summarize, you are implying that any movement we can expect is solely based on whatever we are yet to get from EB-1 for September 2011 bulletin. Is there anyway to know this number more accurately? (I need July 1, 2007 PD on EB2-I to be current and a PWMB too)
Thank you,
TR
Two questions please:
1. Do you really think in Q2 and Q3 of 2012 when dates start moving again, priority dates will only move to Q1 of 2008? That seems very very conservative given the movement we've seen past 2 years?
2. Also since the financial crisis (late 2008) haven't green card filings from India and China slowed down considerably (I know that H-1b filings have reduced very substantially and I would imagine the same for green card filings)? If so, once we get to late 2008, should priority dates start moving much faster? And how do abandoned green cards by people returning back to their home countries play into this?
Thanks in advance for your response!
To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.
Doese the comment suggest that VO is also conservative in August VB and once the CIS data is available, it may move big in Sep? BTW, what is CIS data?
I have been doing my own calculations for the past 2 years.
The monthly demand data I have is below.
658 588 675 743 750 808 836 993
this is the aprox data available with me starting from May till December 2002 eb3 category. Since the EB3 date has moved by 1 month can I assume 658 visa numbers are either approved, or ported to EB2, etc ? To be on the dream side can I assume that there was some spill over ? I read all the post above and I know that spill over is not possible if EB2 is not current.
My case is Nov 2002 and CM will be able to predicct my case based on the data available with him monthly basis or the data provided above.
Demand data shows that there is a reduction of only 100 to me and in the posting it is mentioned that 500 for prior to 2003 Jan. The reduction happened only in May 2002 or what?(just because it progressed by another 700 cases.
when comparing the movement for last year sept which moved around 5k, which is close to horizontal spillover from eb2 row-m-p
Does above makes sense?
Spill over down to EB3 is highly welcome... But there are not enough visa numbers to fill in the adjudicated cases in EB2 (around 10K) how can I dream a case where there will be spill over to EB3.
CM... can you look into my question below with monthly data....
what are the chances there is less that 2k spill over is available.
I have exactly the same questions. I am not as good in calculations as you are, but, my understanding of numbers leads me to the same doubts. Please clarify when possible.
And thank you very much for your blog. Really appreciate your efforts. I see your calculations as very reliable and believe any misses are due to the lack in transparency and predictability of the system (GC process) and not your fault (as a matter of fact, I dont even blame USCIS, realize they have a herculean task at hand !). I just wish everyone understood this better. Thank you for your time.
May God bless you and family !!!
Other than those, total PWMBs until July 2007 is around 10,605. Even if we assume from the economic recession and other reasons you mentioned only 50% are eligible to pursue this, numbers still come out to be 5,303. So without crossing July 2007, for next fiscal year, EB2-IC has demand of 5303+2874 = 8177.
Of these, EB2-I demand is 5032 and EB2-C will be around 3145 (including PWMBs) after 08 July 2007. Let’s not even consider porting in this case. These will be enough to keep dates stalled until Q1 and late Q2. Once DOS will reach in Q2, like this year it will start looking at half yearly projected demand for EB1. If at this point, annual visa limit for the EB2-IC (or any of the country) is exhausted due to these numbers, it will start looking into using this number. DOS/USICS are constrained to use only 30% of these numbers in first three quarters (but they made exceptions this year) . This move totally depends upon number of visas it has.
As per movement, it totally depends upon demand and DOS will have no clue about it. So movement will be based on usual trend (around 3000 visa numbers each month for EB2-IC). So even if expected spillover is 15000-20000, movement will be only 5-8 months at most at first chance. If after this movement they will not receive this much application, dates will move more. But if dates will move until March 2008 anytime in next FY 2012, will bring 18,264 EB2-I application and 2,619 more EB2-C application after taking into account I-140 conversion factor. Even considering most optimistic case of only still hoping only 75% are eligible to pursue this anymore more, total demand from july 2007 until March 2008 – (0.75 x (18264+2619)) = 15662.
Above numbers from July 2007-march 2008 and demand from 8July 07 to cross July 2007 = 15662 + 8177 = 23,839. So any spillover between 18000 + 5600 (annual limit) will be sufficient to cover this. I personally do not expect much spillover next year from EB1 and EB2-ROW. Taking all this into account dates can maximum move next year into March-May 2008 in late Q2 or early Q3 and might not retrogress below March 2008, if we will receive atleast 18000 spillover next year.
Above holds true if dates will only reach July 2007 for this fiscal year and best case if we will receive 5500 visa numbers for rest of the fiscal year.
It should be noted no porting is considered in above scenario and PWMBs are assumed 50% eligible.
Novemeber 2002 PD will current by next year sometime depending upon porting for EB3 in next year.
People have been talking about the reduction in demand data by 500. But I see only 100 i.e 6500 to 6400 for prior 2003 Jan
STill they advanced by 1 month to cover around 700 applications.
Is it not right?
PM_GCSeeker
Any predictions on a September 5th, 2007 EB2-I PD -- this calender year?
thanks
Great work ...Your awesome ... Hope we see some movement in march 2012
We appreciate your answer .May God bless you and your family
My PD is June 2009. Can you give a calculated guess when can i even expect for filing i 485.
Thanks in advance
Sorry for repeating. PD EB2 I- Dec 2007 , is there almost a good chance that I will be able to file for EAD in 2012 ? If so which quarter you think could this happen . I'm just a little scared if I have to wait for it in 2013.
APpreciate your analysis
do you see any chance for EB2 becom current between sep2011 to sep 2012
First I would like to appreciate and thank you for taking time in doing the analysis and providing the predictions, your analysis is helping lot of people to plan and make important decisions.
I have a question and request, my PD is Feb 2008 (EB2 India) and I am hoping my date to be current in FY 2012. If it gets current in FY2012, could you predict approximately in which month my PD would be current ?
Thanks
AAA
Hi and thank you for your helpfull information
I am in Eb3Row with pd 2 oct 2006
Can you estimate when my pd will be current .
Is it possible to let me know that the trend would be faster or slower in new fiscal year?
I appreciate your hardworking
Thanks for the information provided here., For EB3 hope there will be no more retrogression, Cm what will be your pedictions for EB3 next fiscal year? My pd is feb. 2006.
I am currently working here in Middle east, it is possible to have my interview here in US embassy?
Hoping I have my interview this year, any predictions?
Thanks a ton!!
In any case if someone or (group of people) would like to use FOIA to get such information from Department of State, here is the link to get it - http://www.state.gov/m/a/ips/c36405.htm
Getting such information involves money, anywhere from $25 to $250.00
and this month there is no movement and am really upset :(
do you think Sep or Oct gonna be like this ? :(
thank you CM u r always good to me and cheer me up
My priority date is 31st July 2007 and my 485 is filed but i have to file my wife 485.
What are my chances this year
Do I need aubmit another EB-1b?
I've been following your blog from a couple of months and I really appreciate your amazing and detailed analysis. Even the GC calculator is pretty helpful to atleast clear some ambiguity. But with the recent developments, do you think it will cross atleast June 15th'07 for EB2 India in the upcoming Sept vb?
Best Regards
MR
If the date for EB2 IC does not move until May 2012, I suspect USICS is going to waste a lot of GCs in 2012 unless they use to excess numbers for EB3 adjudicated 485s. Because the average time to process new 485 application is about 5/6 months.
My PD is October 2007 EB2, not sure why NVC asked me to pay the CP processing fee in March 2011. In fact I opted for adjustment of status during I140.
Anyway I don’t think the dates will move more than few weeks in September bulletin.
Let us wait and see
If so should it not help EB2 India in 2012 to reach atleast Dec 2007 or Jan 2008 ? I'm assuming that whatever spillover might yield next month for this fiscal year should be enough to clear our waiting PWMBs until July 2007 r ? Somehow it wigs me out to even think of any stagnation next year ..dont mean to be paranoid but there is some dubious buzz about 21K unused leftover for EB for this fiscal itself , if it is any true will that be accounted for in the next month's bulletin . I would assume if 20 K is applied it should move Eb2 quite broadly possibly in to Q1 of 08.....any thoughts gurus
I just read your analysis today and felt happy that atleast someone talking in numbers with some good source of information. Thank you for such a great job, it helps people!
My PD is June 26, 2007. Got married afterwards. Waiting to file 485 for my wife. What are the possibilities this year? Either Sep bulletin or atleast OCT bulletin?
Im at Eb3 philippines Priority date Dec 2007 when do you think can i adjust my status?
I have a question to you.
I am current in Aug Bulletin, Today i went for Medical, CS recommended me to get MMR vaccine two times, one with PCP in this week and another round after 4 weeks. If i need to wait to get another round of vaccine after 4 weeks, it will easily waste too much time to file 485. If i file 485 on Aug 1st with the 1st round of vaccine records, what are the chances of getting RFE?. what do you suggest ?. Do you want me to file on Aug 1st with 1st round of vaccine records? or wait for 2nd round of vaccine records and file after Aug 20th?.
Thanks
MB
I was going through some comments on another website regarding the authenticity of 19,000 visa numbers availability for EB category, it looks like there is but how can we trace how much would be available for EB2-IC in September 2011 blletin. Your thoughts and work is highly appreciated.
The link is as follows:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/printthread.php?t=4&pp=25&page=187
Someone did quite a bit of calculations to arrive at this and would need your review and thoughts.
Thanks and Best Regards
what is your opinion about sep 2011 visa bulletin for EB3 ROW?
Do you think Mexico will have leap forward movement again and there is a bit movement for us ?I will be glad if you mention your opinion.
thanks inadvance
__________________________________
This is useful. Note data until March 2011 for I-485.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Res...
I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September. Even if we think 9K can be used for all other categories, EB2-IC can receive anywhere from 5k-10K. Even EB3-ROW can end up getting some number.
P.S. This is quick analysis. There may be some errors.
thanks for your helpful information
I appreciate your effort on this blog.
Performance data released by uscis(http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/i-485-data-2011-april.pdf) only has approvas from local offices. Any idea why it doesn't have service center approval?
If 19K spill over speculation is based on the performance data,
that clould be wrong and Aug movement doesn't support this 19K number at all.
Thank you for all the hardwork you put into this blog and for your patience in answering our questions and comments. I was wondering why the latest demand data has no input for EB3 Phil.? Do you think priority dates will move to Jan. 06 for the Sept. 2011 visa bulletin? If not, when do you think dates will move to or beyond Jan. 06 for EB3 Phil.? Thank you and more power!
Anyways if your doctor is ready to submit I-693 form with first dose given date the you can submit that, In that case you should be ready for RFE which can increase your processing time by few more days (15-30 days). Personally I would have submitted after second dose to avoid any RFEs later.
Thanks for your prompt reply. All I wanted was your best guess on how many visas could be available for EB2-IC in September bulletin, if 19000 number looks accurate based on what you have calculated and also what neospeed presented on another website.
If I understood it right, 19000 can lead to significant movement in September.
Once again hats off to your knowledge on this subject.
Thanks and Best Regards
PBTX
So now we have add 42K+9K field office approvals. which is around 52 K. which leads to 6K (140K -(52K*2+30K)).
By: Office of Performance and Quality (OPQ), Data Analysis and Reporting Branch (DARB) - ST"
So for simplicity, if you will see I-485 -Employment based approvals in that PDF, it is 45,981, so 140K - (2*45.98K + 30 K) ~ 19K (assuming same demand for last 6 months).
thank you for everything
It is the best site i have ever seen
I am in bit dilemma,
I can file on Aug 1st with 1st round of vaccinations to USCIS. If i need to wait for the 2nd round , then i need to wait atleast Aug 22nd to file. This is wasting 3 weeks easily. I am thinking of to get EAD and AP in the mean time with filing early, if i get RFE , then i can submit 2nd round of vaccinations to USCIS.
I gae blood test yesterday to my PCP, depends up on the results, he will give 1st shot soon.
Please let me know your suggestion.
Thanks
MB
H'mond has done everything for us to reveal and release our feeling and has helped us throughout retrogression.I appreciate all of the sites that make their effort for us .H'mond is like the best friend of mine ,but i like this site too because of prompt reply they give us and also musilo that do their best .
"could require retrogression of some of the September Family First preference cut-off dates. This action may be necessary to keep visa issuances within the respective annual preference numerical limits. If this were to occur they could be expected to return to the previous cut-off date for October"
do you mean its gonna get back to the cut-off dates like its end last year to 2005 or back to July /2003 .. ?!!!!!!
Based on previously released USCIS Approval/Receipt information until March 2011 - http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf
I-485 Approved were – 45,981
I-485 Received were – 36,492
Approval/Receipt ratio – 1.26
Assuming same ratio for this newly released data until May 2011 – Approvals can be near – 1.26 x 47,721 = 60,128.
This is for 8 months. For full year FY2011 – it becomes 12 x 60,128/8 = 90,192.
Again adding spillover used so far, total consumption becomes = 90,192 + 30,000 = 120,192
So for full year for September bulletin, again 140,000 – 120,192 ~ 19K.
One more to validate 19K news from www.mitbbs.com
Note - It does not include CP demand.
I agree to your statement that 19,000 is for all EB category and after all the demands are filled, than only remaining visa numbers will be allocated to EB2-IC. Any guess what range this might be? I understand you stated that it can be anywhere between 2500-5500 Is this still true per your knowledge? Hope to hear from you soon.
Thanks and Best Regards
PBTX
or pl. advise the timeframe when it will get current.
Now taking into consideration both (a) and (b), can you please let us know what priority date EB2-India could reach in september bulletin ?
Thanks again for your excellent work.Appreciate it.
Thank you, Sir.
Few questions to you.
1) How it will affect processing time when some one get RFE on Medical, Tax Return, Kids etc?
2) is it bad to get RFE for any thing? Is there will be negative impact in the processing?
3) When attorney responds to RFE, How muc time on average will take into processing?
Thanks
RP
Then we should also remember that as per released USCIS data, I-140 stats until March 2011 suggests that for 42,096 receipts there are only 30,820 approvals. So even if we assume that this difference was constantly maintained for entire year, there are still chances some of these 12000 would contain some EB2-ROWs. They will also use some of these remaning visa numbers. If even 10% of these are EB2-ROW, we can have 1200 demand from EB2-ROW. Then addition to this usual monthly demand for EB2-ROW, which can be anywhere from 500 -1500.
We do not know anything EB1 demand. At this point when USCIS processing time has come down to 4 months, we can see some of these EB1s also getting some attention. These EB1 approvals will take some visa numbers. I think in month of August, we can see many EB1 approvals as movement for EB2-IC is only 5 weeks and then with reduced backlog, some good numbers of EB1 approvals are expected.
In general EB3 demand for a month can be anywhere from 2400 + 4(233) = 3332.
So now if we wil consider all these aspects, what EB2-IC can expect is
= 19000 - (CP + EB2-ROW(due to I-140) + regular EB2-ROW + EB1 + EB3) demand
= 19000 - (6000 + 1200 + 1000 + 1000 + 3332) = 6468
Thus numbers available for EB2-IC can be anywhere from 3500 - 8000. So movement can be anywhere from 1 June 2007 - 22 July 2007. It all depends upon demand for last month and I have no basis to come up with exact numbers.
42,096
30,820
That is so close to my PD of 26 June 2007 and I am also a PWMB - looks like I am about to miss the boat for the second time in FY2011.
If Sept VB is somewhere in June 2007 and I miss the boat, what is the likely scenario for FY2012?? Will it be a few months during the spillover season (like in FY 2011) or will they start moving slowly at a time? Nervous few weeks ahead, I suppose.
Thank you for your help and patience.
TR
Forgot - EB2I
Thank you
TR
Any chance of EB2 I become current in september bulleting ?
for the august bulletin there was a hope that it can be current but ...... now since we hope that 19k unused visa can be used for september bulletin dont you think there is a chance for eb2 to become current and later in october they will retrogade ?
If Sep VB ends somewhere in June 2007 before your PD then you can expect to become current in October-November frame. Dates will only stall once dates will reach July 2007. As PWMBs will make movement slow. July months has approx 1000 applications for each week movement. This excludes PWMBs. Starting next fiscal year, DOS can only allot 233 visas per month. But for June, density is not high and you can expect to be current in Oct-Nov if your PD is not current in Sep VB.
Thank you for the details. I really appreciate your efforts in this website.
TR
Thanks CM
My PD is July 27th,EB2 I.What do you think of chances this september or will it be in 2012 and if so which quarter likely?
Thanks
However my 485 is filed ,i have to file for my wife
My PD is Jan 2008 and my H1 expires in June 2012 (6 years). My last H1 stamp was received in 2007 and expired in 2009. I applied for extension and have not travelled outside US since then. I am planning to visit India in next few months. My doubt is can there be issues in getting H1 stamped? Since less than 1 year remains and I am also a potential immigrant (filed for GC), I work for a consulting company. Also what happens if my PD becomes current while I am there. My visit would be 3-4 weeks long.
Thank you for your time and valuable advice.
MJ
With recent cases at Consulate where passports are getting held for 3-4 months with an excuse to get security clearance, it is advised that no need to go for H1B stamping if you have Advance Parole documents valid for the time period you are out of US. All you have to do is entry on AP rather than on H1B. In case you get your GC you can tell at port of entry that your GC has been approved but you will still like to use AP for entry. CM what are your thoughts on the same?
Thanks
PBTX
AFAIK H1-B is dual intent Visa and so you should be fine with your H1-B stamping even if you have been sponsored for a GC as long as you have all the valid documents.
CM any thoughts?
Thank you for the great analysis. This is by far the most meaningful analysis I have come across yet. My PD is 20th July 2007, EB2 India. Can you guesstimate when this might be current?
Thanks for the great job.
My question is my priory date became current in July. My husband is the primary applicant and he got his approval notice last week, so did my daughter. But I haven't received mine. We applied together. BTW, I do have my own H1B, and an approved I-140 of myself. Can this be the reason that I didn't receive my approval with the rest of the family.
Thank you for your help always
Hong
Thank you for your kind words.
In case your PD becomes current when you are there, either you have to come back to US and then file AOS (you have to be in US to file AOS) or opt for CP (would not recommend unless H1B is denied).
Please let me know that our Priority date is the day of starting I-140 or approval of it?
I renewed my visa screen 3 months ago.On the day of my interview ,which is in one year,Do i need ielts again ?My visascreen will be expired in 2016.
thanks inadvance
is there a chance for retrogression under eb3 next fiscal year.
thanks
My priority became current in July. I filed with husband in July 2007. While I just got a request from INS to re-fingerprint. Is this good news or bad news? How long does it normally take to get approval after the second finger print. It is very odd that my husband and my daughter has already received their approval notice.
Thank you
Hong
My visa screen will expire on April 2012. On the other hand my IELTS was issued last 2007. Do I need to take IELTS again before my interview? or no need since my Visa Screen is not yet expired? Thank you.
Do I need to submit DS-230 again at the time of consular interview to update my data? Since it is almost 3 years already at the NVC.Thank you.
I just want to know if applicant is already docs qualified does it mean all the other members of family petitioned were already docs qualified.?and thus that mean our petitioner have already paid the visa fee bills for us ?? hope you can shed some light to this ..
thanks a lot
thanks in advance.
Excellent blog by the way.
Can you please tell me what is the EB3 Demand data 3332 ? What is that number and how did you get that number?
Thanks