Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label AOS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AOS. Show all posts

Sunday, April 29, 2012

June 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Posted On Sunday, April 29, 2012 by Rav 53 comments

June 2012 Visa Bulletin will be third bulletin for Q3 - FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for June 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.


June 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
    • EB3- China could advance to 15 June 2005
    • EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 May 2006
    • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines at least for this quarter.
    • EB3-India could advance to 15 September 2002.
    • EB2-India and EB2-China would stay at 15th August 2007 in June and July visa bulletin. At this point, DOS has announced that available visas for EB2 China and India have been exhausted. So far I am still hopeful of some movement in August or September visa bulletin for this category. Again, movement will be dependent on what is status of EB1 and EB2-ROW backlog at that point. Expect movement to atleast PD March 2008 or beyond in October 2012 visa bulletin.
    Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt. 








       

      Tuesday, March 27, 2012

      May 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

      Posted On Tuesday, March 27, 2012 by Rav 70 comments

      May 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for Q3 - FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for May 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.


      May 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
      • EB3- China could advance to 22 March 2005
      • EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 April 2006 (Mostly 22 April 2006. It could just be in borderline for 01 May 2006 if we are lucky).
      • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
      • EB3-India could advance to 08 September 2002.
      • EB2-India and EB2-China would retrogress to 15th August 2007 in coming bulletin. Now since we have all the demand to satisfy annual quota for this fiscal year, dates will remain stagnant up to July visa bulletin. In August visa bulletin, we may see 3-4 months movement and then in September it will be March 2008, with final resting point for cut-off date at May-June 2008 or more in October-December visa bulletins. We can crunch exact numbers once next inventory data is released .i.e. in May time frame. As of now it seems that FY 2013 will take care of at least first half of 2009 or little more; FY 2014 is the year we are looking for 2010 PDs.
      Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.




       

      Monday, February 20, 2012

      April 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

      Posted On Monday, February 20, 2012 by Rav 137 comments

      April 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for Q3 - FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for April 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.


      April 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
      • EB3- China could advance to 08 February 2005
      • EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 April 2006.
      • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
      • EB3-India could advance to 01 September 2002.
      • EB2-India and EB2-China could see 0 months - 3.5 months movement in coming bulletin. Movement in coming months solely depends on how demand for last two visa bulletin. has picked up so far. If January and February bulletin demand for EB2-IC has bloomed as we expected  (i.e. based on trackitt trend), then we may not see any substantial movement. Any withered demand means few months movement for EB2-IC.
      At this time based on current demand, everyone with PD until October-November 2008 should feel good about receiving green card this fiscal year. This is all based on receiving 30K spillover including annual quota from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5, which looks plausible. based on current demand. Dates might not retrogress in this bulletin. We may expect stall or retrogression in May-June VB.

      Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.




       

      Thursday, February 16, 2012

      Visa Bulletin: March 2012

      Posted On Thursday, February 16, 2012 by Rav 25 comments





      March 2012 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released few days ago. March visa bulletin brought 4 months movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates  ever.  EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by1 week and 4 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category  saw some movement.

      Employment-Based (EB)
      Below is a summary of the March 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
      • EB-1 remains current across the board.
      • EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four (4) months to May 1, 2010.
      • EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to March 15, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by one (1) month to January 1, 2005, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to August 22, 2002.
      • The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to March 15, 2006.  It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to August 22, 2002.

      Family-Based (FB)
      Below is a summary of the March 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:
      • FB-1 moves forward (again, for sixth consecutive month).  FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to February 1, 2005.   FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to June 22, 1997.
      • FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to July 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB-2A Mexico moves forward by seven (7) weeks to July 1, 2009.
      • FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by one (1) month to November 15, 2003.  FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992.   FB-2B Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to December 8, 2001.

      VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
       
      EB Categories
      No Notes


      FB Categories

      No Notes

      Demand Data



      EB2-India & China Movement
      It is obvious that EB2-India & China are reaching their high mark point for this year. Currently released inventory suggests that incoming demand for EB2-IC is low compared to what was anticipated based on PERM data. There is apparently lot of multiple PERM filings either to port to EB2,because of job changes, due to more than one filing per family or abandonment of cases during 2008 and 2009. We know that inventory has not covered entire demand for December and January Visa Bulletin movement, and it should be assumed complete only regard to demand upto November visa bulletin. We believe that current movement upto March Visa Bulletin would be sufficient for current year's demand. Please see where demand is heading for current fiscal year based on trackitt demand.

      Ratio of representation for EB2-IC on trackitt to inventory number suggests that one trackitt case will convert into 8.6 cases in I-485 inventory. This is based on numbers that were seen in new inventory  up to Oct-November visa movement i.e. 5,603. This when compared to trackitt corresponds to 651 cases. Ratio of these two numbers is 8.6. If we will use same ratio for movements upto February visa bulletin, i.e. PD 01 Jan 2010, demand comes upto 33,220. This number corresponds to PERM to Inventory factor of 0.42. This is very low multiple PERM factor but so far is looking very plausible. I will not be surprised if retrogression that will happen in May-June 2012 will be minimum.  

      YTY trackitt ratio had usually held upto 13 vs 8.6; using ratio of 13 gives us PERM to Inventory factor of 0.65. So in any case when retrogression will happen, it will not go beyond  Priority Date November 2008. But how things are looking so far, retrogression may not happen or if will happen will only be until later months of 2009. Since past month USCIS approval rate has picked up. If  rate will drop then we might not even see any retrogression. It is important that USCIS should use visa numbers at consistent rate.  Any slack over there means Consular cases are only hope. Of course, retrogression majorly also depends upon how EB1 and EB2-ROW approvals will pick up with time and if we can  still receive spillover  of 30K. Anything less than this means more retrogression. I believe now it is the right time to divert our focus more towards EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5 demand.

      EB2-IC is now at a point where it may stall or just move by two months at most in April 2012. May 2012 should expect stall and worst to worst case little retrogression. Any one with PD before November 2008 should feel confident about receiving green card this year.

      EB3-ROW-M-P Movement 
      EB3-ROW-M-P movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,150 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. Constantly around 1200-1600 new cases are added to the inventory month to month. At current rate, it will take 12 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 08 August 2006. Interesting thing to note is that EB3-ROW demand is in 18000 vs EB3-P demand which 11,000. EB3-P demand is really slowing down movement for EB3-ROW.

       EB3-India &China Movement
      EB3-India is currently moving as expected. There is some eventual EB3 to EB2 porting going on at rate of 250 cases per month based on demand data. If this will continue then we can again see some rapid movement for EB3-I in later part of the year, especially in August-September 2012. EB3-China is moving very well with at least 4-6 weeks movement each month. We expect this movement to continue for rest of the year.



       

      Monday, February 6, 2012

      Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012 - Employment Based Green Card

      Posted On Monday, February 06, 2012 by Rav 60 comments

      Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

      Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. See this article for detail.


      Summary of article

      • USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.
      • PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.
      • Based on currently released new receipts data, PERM to Inventory Conversion Factor for realistic case is 1.40 upto March 2008. OR Total PERM to I-485 Inventory Factor of 1.00. Going forward this number can fall down to 1.10-1.20 for PD 2008 to PD 2009.
      • Spillover expected for this year is 28,800 - 35,000 
      • Based on this movement for EB2-IC  in April 2012 is a concern. Really it is time to stall or retrogress at this point. If  any date movement may happen next month, it would be mere luck. All those current should file their applications as soon as they can.
      EB2-IC PERM to Inventory factor is a User ENTERED' field and can be changed accordingly. 


      You can also play with EB1, EB2-ROW-M-P, EB4 and EB5 demand to get your own estimate. Please read this article to estimate their respective demand.

      Estimation on Retrogression - Last Updated - 26 February 2012

      We do not expect to achieve any spillover from Family-Based category.


      Detailed analysis on Visa Demand data for each category could be seen below in the calculations.


      You can enter porting and visa demand for each category in 'User ENTERED' box for your Priority date, and see if your PD would be current with those assumptions.

      This Prediction will be updated as and when more data is published - Last Updated 26 February 2012

      Notes

      Understanding Spillover
      Spill Across (SA): It is a horizontal reallocation of visas within a category. (Unused number from EB2 ROW will be allotted to EB2 -India and China)
       
      Fall Down (FD) : It is the vertical reallocation of visas between categories (eg: unused numbers from eb1 go to eb2....) Unused visa numbers in a higher preference level can "fall-down" to lower preference categories. For example, excess EB1 numbers can "fall-down" to EB2.


      Fall Up (FU): Unused visa numbers in EB4 and EB5 can "fall-up" to EB1 then to EB2


      EB2 - India-China Allocation (IC) - Visa numbers allotment to India and China EB2-category. This is 2,800 for each country or total 5,600.


      How spillover works?

      Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed


      Visa Allocation available each year

      EB1 - 40,000

      EB2 -ROW-P-M - 34,400

      EB2-IC - 5,600

      EB4 - 9,940

      EB5 - 9,940


      Calculations


       

      Sunday, February 5, 2012

      January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

      Posted On Sunday, February 05, 2012 by Rav 0 comments

      USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

      EB1 demand : In general, EB1 is highly backlogged with atleast 15,583 applications still pending at Service Centers. Although this number looks big at first glance please do not worry. This is just a backlog that USCIS will need to clear going forward. Rate of new application filings is very low and we can estimate at least 12,000 or more spillover from this category at current rate. This may change with time. It all depends how much USCIS will like to reduce it's inventory when crossing into FY 2013. Generally such number is around 8,000 year-to-year, and we have used this number to estimate our projected EB1 demand for FY 2012.


      EB2-ROW-M-P demand - This category demand is little surprising at first. I am not sure if new demand is so low but we should remember that other significant demand for this category also comes from consular processed cases. Such demand is usually around 15%. Estimated Demand shown is only for USCIS and Field Offices. Usually year to year inventory for this category ends around 8,000 -10,000. We assumed 8,000 in our calculations.

      If we will add 15% to the estimated demand, we can say that estimated FY 2012 EB2-ROW-M-P demand is around 1.15 * 22,379 = 25,735. From EB2-ROW-M-P, we can expect spillover around 34,200 - 25,735 = 8,465 or more

      EB3-ROW-M-P demand - Visa use for for EB3-ROW-M-P is estimated from October 2011 to January 2012 inventory. Please see below.

       One thing to note here is that only 5,042 visa numbers were used by EB3-ROW-M-P at USCIS. Total visa number available for 3 months is around 8,682. Remaining 3,640 were used by consulates abroad. This demand is around 40% for CP cases.We are still marching towards 08 August 2006 for this category.

      EB2-IC demand - This section of the article will only cover EB2-India and China demand till PD July 31st, 2007. This demand is all inclusive of visa numbers that are/will be used upto this PD for current fiscal year (FY 2012). Demand from October 2011-January 2012 inventory estimates visa number used until Q1, cases still waiting for visa numbers and new EB3 to EB2 porting cases. Remaining demand after PD July 2007 is covered in "Predictions for EB2-India & China FY 2012".

      Just based on inventory it seems that only 7,795 visa numbers were used in Q1-FY 2012. Total PWMB numbers are also very less compared to what we initially thought. PWMBs includes all PDs from May 2006- July 2007 (June VB-November VB) that are still pending since October 2011 inventory. Visa use for such cases will come from this year's quota. These 14,430 demand will be limiting factor for current year cut-off date on retrogression. Retrogression will be estimated is next article.

      EB3- India - Inventory for EB3-India compared to last fiscal year reduced by 4884 (2803 annual limit + 2081 estimated porting and/or case abandonment upto January 2003). Minimum movement around 08 November 2002 is expected. Movement can be little more if more folks from November-December 2002 will port for this year.

      EB4- demand - Last year, EB4 demand was high or at par, and hence no spillover was received from this category. For this year also we may assume that no spillover will be received.

      EB5- demand - EB5 demand is similar level as last year and may yield around 3000-4000 unused visa numbers if similar demand is seen in FY 2012.


       

      Tuesday, January 24, 2012

      March 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

      Posted On Tuesday, January 24, 2012 by Rav 128 comments

      March 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the third bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for March 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.


      March 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
      • EB3- China could advance to 22 December 2004
      • EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 15 March 2006. EB3-ROW-M-P is still marching towards 8th August 2006 for current FY 2012.
      • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
      • EB3-India could advance to 01 September 2002.
      • EB2-India and EB2-China could see 2 months- 6 months movement in coming bulletin. This may be last movement before cut-off date will stall until May Visa Bulletin. Dates may retrogress in May-June visa bulletin. Current data suggests retrogression will be reasonable around October 2008 or later. This may change with sudden increase in demand during later part of the year. Less retrogression may mean some rapid movement into late 2010 and early 2011 in FY 2013. 
      At this time, everyone filed in November-December 2011 should expect GC within USCIS suggested processing times. October 2011 applicants have already started seeing approvals.

      Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.




       

      Monday, January 23, 2012

      EB Category FY 2012 Demand Upto January 2012 & Visa-Use Budget

      Posted On Monday, January 23, 2012 by Rav 22 comments

       As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of Novemberr 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.

       


      Visa Use Budget and Current EB category demand

      From  the available data, please see total EB category demand for visas upto January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used the available data also to estimate Visa-use Budget upto January 2012.

       Reference
      Rollover Demand - See this article 
      October Demand - See this article

      Please note that December and January Demand is calculated from trackitt using factor of 13. This is still an estimation. January 2012 demand is prorated from current data based on 31 days.

      Visa use is calculated based on numbers that are used upto today. Please add all the numbers that are circled in red to estimate current visa use.

       Visa use upto January 2012 =  6461 + 8000 + 4805 + 8012 + 1131 + 13468 = 41,877

      Please note EB1 use looks high for this quarter only because of high rollover from previous year. If current trend continues then we can expect some more spillover from EB1. This may be the reason that Mr O. is quoting less demand for EB1. We would need to see if trackitt trend will shift due to more new EB1 filings as  year progresses.. EB2-ROW demand does not make sense based on trackitt data. We will like to see more PERM data for Q1 FY 2012 to make this conclusion. Please note that we need more 60K demand from today to use EB annual quota completely. This is based on assumption that EB4 and EB5 may not yield much spillover. Low EB2-ROW consumption could be accounted  to the delays in PERM processing. This may pick up with time.

      If any of the trends for EB1 and EB2-ROW is true and will continue like this for few more months, retrogression is not possible until summer. Even if retrogression will happen in such case, I doubt it will go anywhere in late 2008 or may even stall at PD 2009. This looks too good to be true but for now this scenario cannot be discarded. Surprising data that unfolded due to trackitt trend is an eye-opener. Lets watch inventory and I-485 filing receipts for few more months. So far things looks good for EB2-IC (that means less retrogression).



       

      Monday, January 9, 2012

      Visa Bulletin - February 2012

      Posted On Monday, January 09, 2012 by Rav 67 comments



      February 2012 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. February visa bulletin brought 12 months remarkable movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates  ever.  EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by 2 weeks and 6 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category  saw some movement.

      Employment-Based (EB)
      Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
      • EB-1 remains current across the board.
      • EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by twelve (12) months to January 1, 2010.
      • EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to February 22, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to August 15, 2002.
      • The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 22, 2006.  It also moves forward by two (2) weeks for India to August 15, 2002.

      Family-Based (FB)
      Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:
      • FB-1 moves forward (again, for fifth consecutive month).  FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by nine (9) weeks to December 22, 2004.   FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 22, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 22, 1997.
      • FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to June 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB-2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to May 8, 2009.
      • FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2003.  FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992.   FB-2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to November 1, 2001.

      VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
       
      EB Categories

      Employment First:  Current

      Employment Second:
      China and India:  Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low.  This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit.  Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off.  Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.   

      Employment Third:
      Worldwide: up to one month
      China: up to one month
      India: up to two weeks
      Mexico: up to one month
      Philippines: up to one month

      Employment Fourth:  Current

      Employment Fifth:  Current

      Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns.  The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time.  Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.


      FB Categories


      Worldwide dates:
      F1: three to five weeks
      F2A: one to two months
      F2B: three to four weeks
      F3: one to three weeks
      F4: up to one month

      Demand Data





      EB2-India & China Movement

      Statement in Visa bulletin clearly tells that so far (i.e. 6th January 2012) upto third business day of January visa bulletin, rate of filings is very low and hence in order to ensure that enough demand is available for USCIS to process during spillover season for FY 2012, dates had moved rapidly.

      Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is pointing towards 9412 applications. (2200 I-485 filings from October Receipt Data and 166 trackitt applications gives factor of 13. From October-December 2011, trackitt has 724 pending cases, which converts into 724*13 = 9412 cases). This is too early to suggest that filings are low but we will continue to monitor I-485 Receipt data and trackitt trend for next few days.

      DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.

      As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That eventual need will be seen around May 2012  visa bulletin i.e. in April. 2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is difficult to determine without inventory data. Retrogression beyond December 2007 is not plausible. If demand continue to stay less, then June September 2008 could be considered as a high mark point for retrogression but for now lets stick to March-June 2008 as cut-off dates for FY 2012 until we see some more inventory numbers.

      It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below

      EB2-IC rough visa use estimation for FY 2012 that can be accounted upto 31st December 2011 is
      Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 22,219
      Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007  [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 20,897
      *- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog pre July 2007, after movements for October - November 2011 VB 

      EB3-ROW-M-P Movement 
      EB3-ROW-M-P movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,400 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. At current rate, it will take 13 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 22nd July 2006.

       EB3-India & China Movement
      EB3-India is currently moving as expected. There is some eventual EB3 to EB2 porting going on at rate of 250 cases per month based on demand data. If this will continue then we can again see some rapid movement for EB3-I in later part of the year, especially in August-September 2012. EB3-China is moving very well with at least 4-6 weeks movement each month. We expect this movement to continue for rest of the year.