Visa Bulletin: March 2012

March 2012 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released few days ago. March visa bulletin brought 4 months movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates  ever.  EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by1 week and 4 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category  saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the March 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four (4) months to May 1, 2010.
• EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to March 15, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by one (1) month to January 1, 2005, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to August 22, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to March 15, 2006.  It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to August 22, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the March 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB-1 moves forward (again, for sixth consecutive month).  FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to February 1, 2005.   FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to June 22, 1997.
• FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to July 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB-2A Mexico moves forward by seven (7) weeks to July 1, 2009.
• FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by one (1) month to November 15, 2003.  FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992.   FB-2B Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to December 8, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

 

EB Categories
No Notes


FB Categories

No Notes

Demand Data

EB2-India & China Movement

It is obvious that EB2-India & China are reaching their high mark point for this year. Currently released inventory suggests that incoming demand for EB2-IC is low compared to what was anticipated based on PERM data. There is apparently lot of multiple PERM filings either to port to EB2,because of job changes, due to more than one filing per family or abandonment of cases during 2008 and 2009. We know that inventory has not covered entire demand for December and January Visa Bulletin movement, and it should be assumed complete only regard to demand upto November visa bulletin. We believe that current movement upto March Visa Bulletin would be sufficient for current year's demand. Please see where demand is heading for current fiscal year based on trackitt demand.

Ratio of representation for EB2-IC on trackitt to inventory number suggests that one trackitt case will convert into 8.6 cases in I-485 inventory. This is based on numbers that were seen in new inventory  up to Oct-November visa movement i.e. 5,603. This when compared to trackitt corresponds to 651 cases. Ratio of these two numbers is 8.6. If we will use same ratio for movements upto February visa bulletin, i.e. PD 01 Jan 2010, demand comes upto 33,220. This number corresponds to PERM to Inventory factor of 0.42. This is very low multiple PERM factor but so far is looking very plausible. I will not be surprised if retrogression that will happen in May-June 2012 will be minimum.  

YTY trackitt ratio had usually held upto 13 vs 8.6; using ratio of 13 gives us PERM to Inventory factor of 0.65. So in any case when retrogression will happen, it will not go beyond  Priority Date November 2008. But how things are looking so far, retrogression may not happen or if will happen will only be until later months of 2009. Since past month USCIS approval rate has picked up. If  rate will drop then we might not even see any retrogression. It is important that USCIS should use visa numbers at consistent rate.  Any slack over there means Consular cases are only hope. Of course, retrogression majorly also depends upon how EB1 and EB2-ROW approvals will pick up with time and if we can  still receive spillover  of 30K. Anything less than this means more retrogression. I believe now it is the right time to divert our focus more towards EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5 demand.

EB2-IC is now at a point where it may stall or just move by two months at most in April 2012. May 2012 should expect stall and worst to worst case little retrogression. Any one with PD before November 2008 should feel confident about receiving green card this year.

EB3-ROW-M-P Movement 

EB3-ROW-M-P movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,150 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. Constantly around 1200-1600 new cases are added to the inventory month to month. At current rate, it will take 12 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 08 August 2006. Interesting thing to note is that EB3-ROW demand is in 18000 vs EB3-P demand which 11,000. EB3-P demand is really slowing down movement for EB3-ROW.

 EB3-India &China Movement

EB3-India is currently moving as expected. There is some eventual EB3 to EB2 porting going on at rate of 250 cases per month based on demand data. If this will continue then we can again see some rapid movement for EB3-I in later part of the year, especially in August-September 2012. EB3-China is moving very well with at least 4-6 weeks movement each month. We expect this movement to continue for rest of the year.