Monday, December 19, 2011

EB2-IC Visa Bulletin Movements FY 2012 - Is this how Mr. Oppenheim thinks?


Monday, December 19, 2011 | , , , ,

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? Or if we can formulate a mathematical expression that outlines his approach to move dates. That is when we started digging into this.

Edited - December 20, 2011

We started looking at the movement that Mr. Oppenheim did for Family-Based Category last year in FY 2010 and FY 2011 to see how he moved the dates and then retrogressed them once he had enough demand. Some key difference that should be noted between two categories are a) annual visas for FB category vs EB category is 260K vs. 140K. When one will reduce these numbers per category, ratio between two visa numbers would be quite similar b) For FB category demand could be easily generated in couple months as long as NVC have enough cases documentarily qualified (majority of demand in FB category comes from overseas consular posts) vs. EB category which rely mostly on USCIS to generate demand. C) Mr. Oppenheim started doing such movement for FB category in June 2010 which was still recalibrating until last fiscal year.

Mr. Oppenheim started doing similar movement of EB2-IC from October 2011. If we will assume that Mr. Oppenheim have similar thought process that he had while determining cut-off dates for FB category, then we should have seen movements as suggested in the column “EB2-IC”. But this was the not the case. Factors a) to c) could be the reason for this. As two categories have different demand and different annual visa numbers, movement could not be just purely based on similar difference. We took first two movements that we saw in the last visa bulletin to fit the best correlation to the data, and equation we received was

Recalibrated EB2-IC Movement

It should be noted that there is a correction in the equation. As forward movement will be less based on factor a) to c), even retrogression should be less than anticipated compared to FB category.

Forward Movement

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) 60 days)

Retrogression

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) +60 days)

This equation closely satisfied movement that we saw for December 2011 and January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used this data to correlate Mr. Oppenheim thought process in order to extrapolate movement for next few bulletins; as long as he will continue to have same thought process for rest of the year.

Fallacy to above method, it does not take into account any EB demand, PERM numbers and assumes similar correlation will exist for rest of the year. Personally, I would request everyone to take this lightly and do not put lot of eggs into this basket. The correlation when outputted was very interesting hence we thought of sharing it with our readers, especially when there is no logic behind current movement (as far as I can tell). It can give better perspective to this process than just going by a gut feeling.

If this will make sense, and will start panning out in next few bulletin then cut-off dates estimated by equation does not make sense from June 2012 – November 2012, I would say in case spillover is enough, dates may stick around December 2008 until June 2012 and then retrogress to September 2007 in August-September 2012 for some time. By this time most of the folks should have received green card from the filings in October-December 2011. Successively dates will move back to June 2008 in October 2013 or beyond. In all, I would not care about movement shown in later half of the table.

Note : Results here are independent of demand and were shared because they looked interesting. By no means this suggests that this is what we may see in next visa bulletins.




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31 comments:

Thcricketfan said...

Nice data points there. Another way to look at it is to think that CO did a big move for FB in Sep 2010. However he had to roll back the move and then some by Mar2011.
I think he might be a bit wary of making big moves for EB2 or at least would be more cautious. There might be one more move coming in January (Apr 2009) and after that it wont move for a couple of months, till he has a better handle on the data.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I agree with your point of view. We were looking at Sep 2010 onwards so far until we saw this correlation. This may be overly optimistic but gives different perspective. You should note that huge movement in June 2010 in FB category was mostly due to reduction in demand and not spillover. F2A usually do not get any spillover from FI, which is always heavily backlogged than F2A. So whole movement that happen in June 2010 was due to unknown demand for next few months.

RamaDon said...

Hi CM, I follows ur blog daily, really appreciate ur analytical work doing on numbers crunch. Please let me know when do you my PD EB2I Apr 23, 2009 will become current?
Thanks!

KS said...

Hi CM,
Gr8 job!! this blog ROCKS always!! like; kudos to you how much you spend time in keeping up the blog active and informative to the core.I am current for the Jan bulletin my pd is march 17 2008 EB2I , my question again with all these movements and ur knowledge , when are we looking at an EAD ? and d most imp question when are we looking at the GC to be arriving like will it be coming this year at all? whats your apprx prediction date on both of them.Your input are always interesting and valuable so we keep asking now and then :) .Thanks a lot in advance.
Thanks,
KS.

Guest said...

Hi CM,
Thanks for making this so interesting. You are doing a great job trying to make it a science.
Question for you, my eb2 I PD Sep 2009 if doesn't become current this year, then how long do you think I have to wait in event of a retrogression?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Correction is added and Table is edited for the article. Thanks

Indian said...

i think edited version is little bit better, but still Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct 2012 reclibrated EB2IC looks wrong for me.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I totally agree with that. It is just outputting that based on equation. Reality will different. I think most of the people until October-November VB will be cleared for sure by June 2012 and if retrogression will happen it may only happen till late 2007 or so and then move back to June 2008 in October 2012.

guest said...

CM, why May 12 is backed to '07?, my PD is April 2010,can you please give me an estimate? thanks and appreciate for all your effort...

Paddu said...

You have the same chance as one w/ PD 01-jan-2009.
Good Luck,
Paddu.

Guest said...

Mine is Dec 2010. Down after reading the article

RamaDon said...

Thanks Paddu. I'm praying to god for forward movement of PD in Feb bulletin.

AS said...

Hi CM,

This is not related to this article.

I will be applying for I-485 on 1 JAN, currently my wife is on H4 and I am filling the same on I-485 documents. But if my wife gets offer from any company she will like to do Change of status (to H1B, as she was previously on H1B), thus is it advisable to go on H1B (or change her status) after EAD is filed? or let remain on H4 only till EAD is approved.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

you have good chance for next month

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thanks KS for your kind words.

You are looking for EAD within 3 months from filings. You would have GC based on your PD at most by August 2012. You should be greened before that.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

If it does not become current this year then we are looking at December - May 2013.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Please make sure you are looking at the re-calibrated column and not at regular EB2-IC column. May - 12 will be at 1 Dec 08 only if movement is sustained as seen with F2A category.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

See my reply to your earlier comment.

RB said...

Hi CM,
My EB2 I PD Dec 14,2009, do you think my PD will be current this year?

Thanks in Advance.

RB

KS said...

Thank you CM,Let it happen as your prediction and words!! keeping fingers crossed!.Wishing you and everyone a very very Happy New Year may 2012 be filled with happiness and success and a gr8 year!.

Gr8! site and keep it coming hope there is a day when all the backlogs will be cleared and things are much more smoother :).

Thanks,
KS

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thanks KS. Same to you and your family.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

30-70 chances for this year.

Trim said...

Hi CM, Feb 2012 Bulletin is just released with EB2 India PD 1st Jan2010, sounds very aggressive. What is your take on that?

Guest said...

HI CM, My PD is DEC 2010 EB2. When will i be current?
Does a no of eb3 to eb2 porting will effect this movement?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

This is in relation to EB2 application.

If someone have filed for labor cert, is it already indicated on the application if you are filing under EB2?, or just after the labor cert is approved and will just be determined when filing for I-140 and I-485?

A certain Labor cert application is still pending and the lawyer says it is good enough to process thru EB2 category.The client has more than 5 yrs experience as a special education teacher prior to her present employer in which she has the same job at present. Do you think this will work?

One thing more, the client is in her 6th yr on h1b visa and needs to be extended.What is her fate if the application is denied?

Can the client file both EB3 and EB2 for the same labor certification?
The motive for this is so that there will be a back-up just in case the higher category will be denied.

If the labor cert was filed less than 365 days left before her 6th year term in h1b visa expires, is there a possibility that the application will be denied considering there are no number of days to be recaptured being out of the country? Are there still some considerations?

I know as always that you have enough patience to answer all my questions. Thank you.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Q If someone have filed for labor cert, is it already indicated on the application if you are filing under EB2?, or just after the labor cert is approved and will just be determined when filing for I-140 and I-485?

A- no LC does not define category. LC is filed based on job code and salary. Once LC is approved then while filing I-140, attorney will chose category to file in. Generally SOC job Code above 8 easily qualify for EB2 but I know many case which were just Code 6 still qualified. Any person who has MS or Higher OR BS + 5 years experience in the related field pertinent to job description will qualify into EB2.

Yes this labor will work in EB2 as suggested by attorney.

If Labor is denied nothing can be done. Extension is based on approved LC or approved I-140.

labor is independent of category. I-140 category should be chosen wisely based on job requirement regardless of individuals merit. Never tailor job description to fit individuals qualification.

LC will not be denied because you have less than 365 days. It will be processed regardless of this. If individual doesn't have more than 365 days left and LC is not approved individual have to wait until LC is approved to file extension and restart work. Talk to good attorney regarding this.

Cmfan said...

 Thank you CM for your immediate reply. A friend was told by her lawyer that she can't file for 7th year extension because she didn't able to file for PERM 365 days before her 6th year will expire.

And then she was told that she must leave the country when her visa expires and can just come back after one year.

What's your stand with this CM? Thank you once again.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yes lawyer is right that extension cannot be filed unless extension is filed 365+ days before PERM but her PERM can be filed anytime.

Yes, she will have to leave country as soon as H1B visa expires. She has to be outside country for 1 year before they can reapply for her H1B Visa. She can also opt to transfer to other visas for that time.

Anonymous said...

 CM,

I hope one more question is not too much.

Let's say, only 355 days have passed since the filing of the application of labor cert and her h1b visa will expire, so it lacks 10 days so that she can file for extension.

 Assuming she opts to transfer to other visas...tourist(can it be?) or F1 then wait to complete for the 365 days, can she file now for extension or still have to wait for 1 year while in the country on different visa?

Is the "time" you mentioned in your last statement above means the "one year" before she can reapply for h1b visa even though she doesn't go out of the country?

Many, many thanks CM!

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Once not extended she has to wait one full year. This rule sucks but is the truth.

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