Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. See this article for detail.
Summary of article
- USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.
- PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.
- PERM to Inventory conversion factor in our Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012 is NOT total PERM to Inventory factor but is EB2-IC PERM to Inventory Factor from this link.
- Based on currently released new receipts data, PERM to Inventory Conversion Factor for realistic case is 1.40 upto March 2008. OR Total PERM to I-485 Inventory Factor of 1.00. Going forward this number can fall down to 1.10-1.20 for PD 2008 to PD 2009.
- Spillover expected for this year is 28,800 - 35,000
- Based on this movement for EB2-IC in April 2012 is a concern. Really it is time to stall or retrogress at this point. If any date movement may happen next month, it would be mere luck. All those current should file their applications as soon as they can.
You can also play with EB1, EB2-ROW-M-P, EB4 and EB5 demand to get your own estimate. Please read this article to estimate their respective demand.
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