Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. See this article for detail.
Summary of article
- USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.
- PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.
- PERM to Inventory conversion factor in our Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012 is NOT total PERM to Inventory factor but is EB2-IC PERM to Inventory Factor from this link.
- Based on currently released new receipts data, PERM to Inventory Conversion Factor for realistic case is 1.40 upto March 2008. OR Total PERM to I-485 Inventory Factor of 1.00. Going forward this number can fall down to 1.10-1.20 for PD 2008 to PD 2009.
- Spillover expected for this year is 28,800 - 35,000
- Based on this movement for EB2-IC in April 2012 is a concern. Really it is time to stall or retrogress at this point. If any date movement may happen next month, it would be mere luck. All those current should file their applications as soon as they can.
You can also play with EB1, EB2-ROW-M-P, EB4 and EB5 demand to get your own estimate. Please read this article to estimate their respective demand.
Estimation on Retrogression - Last Updated - 26 February 2012
Detailed analysis on Visa Demand data for each category could be seen below in the calculations.
You can enter porting and visa demand for each category in 'User ENTERED' box for your Priority date, and see if your PD would be current with those assumptions.
This Prediction will be updated as and when more data is published - Last Updated 26 February 2012
Notes
Understanding Spillover
Spill Across (SA): It is a horizontal reallocation of visas within a category. (Unused number from EB2 ROW will be allotted to EB2 -India and China)
Fall Down (FD) : It is the vertical reallocation of visas between categories (eg: unused numbers from eb1 go to eb2....) Unused visa numbers in a higher preference level can "fall-down" to lower preference categories. For example, excess EB1 numbers can "fall-down" to EB2.
Fall Up (FU): Unused visa numbers in EB4 and EB5 can "fall-up" to EB1 then to EB2
EB2 - India-China Allocation (IC) - Visa numbers allotment to India and China EB2-category. This is 2,800 for each country or total 5,600.
How spillover works?
Unused EB4 and EB5 => EB1 => Unused EB1 => EB2 ROW => EB2 Retrogressed
Visa Allocation available each year
EB1 - 40,000
EB2 -ROW-P-M - 34,400
EB2-IC - 5,600
EB4 - 9,940
EB5 - 9,940
Calculations
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60 comments:
can nov 2010 pd eb2 india be current early FY2013 around nov 2012
Does it also mean that all PDs before July 2009 (worst case) will be in normal processing queue for service centers and a visa number will be ready for them once they reach to a visa officer for processing?
Hi CM, Could you please let me know when I can expect my PD to be current - EB2/I - Apr 2011?
Thanks!!
hello CM .
My PD is December 4th 2007 ..Already applied and got Bioametric appt set up for 15th Feb..when do you think I can expect GC if there is no RFE.
can you answer this question...just want to understand...when they will start moving the dates once it retrogresses...CM can you please answer this question( my priority dtae is feb 2011 EB2/I)
Lets wait until next bulletin and see where it will end (you never know with DOS). After that if retrogression is with respect to optimistic case (July 2009) then your cut-off date will be current in late Q1 or early Q2 FY 2013 and for worst case, it will be late Q2 FY 2013. Nothing later than that. It depends upon retrogression. Density of 2010 application is high compared to 2008-2009 so we will know after next month's VB and successive inventory what will be PERM to Inventory ratio.
Do you mean July 2008 i.e. worst case scenario? Visa numbers will be ready regardless of PD until retrogression will happen. Many cases after July 2008 will also be approved depending upon receipt date and easy for approval once retrogression will be decided available visa numbers and PD of last eligible person will be cut-off date. For example if more cases after PD July 2008 are approved and some cases from May 2008 is left due to complication the retrogression can be PD of last May 2008 OD person. This will give you gist of it.
Give at least 1-1.5 years from today. It could be before that too but less likely so far. We will know more by end of this FY 2012. With HR 3012 it will be different story.
If NSC expect around April 2012 and IF TSC atleast May-June 2012.
If they will retrogress then may start moving in late Q1 or early Q2 FY 2013 depending upon retrogression and inventory build in next 4-5 months.
Thank you for the responce...it will be 1 to 1& 1 1/2 year more wait.....this gives me time to decide my job changes
Hi CM,
My pd is may 23 2008, filed AOS feb 1,2012. When can I expect GC.
This is my favorite blog for immigration news. Thanks and hats off to CM for doing great analysis regularly and sharing with community. My question, my priority date is April - 2009 EB2-India, and just filed for AOS with NSC. When should I expect to have EAD and Green Card?
Hi CM, my priority date is April - 2009 EB2-India, and just filed for AOS with NSC. When should I expect to have EAD and Green Card? Thanks in advance,
Thanks CM!!
Hi CM,
So based on your calculations, June 19 2008 EB2-I will surely get GC within this fiscal year. Is that what I should infer from the above calculation.
Thanks
Murali
hello CM,
With a priority date of 8th August 2007, when can I expect to have my 485 approved and receive my Green Card? I already have my EAD/AP card.
Thank You!
K
btw, my case is being processed at the Texas Service Center.
Hi KN,
Based on Trackitt data, I already see guys with PD in December EB2-I getting their Green cards. Are u in EB2-I or did you get an RFE?
Hi Murali,
No, I haven't received any RFE so far but yes, my case is under EB2-I.
The cases you saw on trackitt, were they processed at NSC or TSC? I saw that most of them were from NSC. TSC is being a bit slow looks like.
demand data is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
March VB out
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_March2012.pdf
May 2010 for EB2
Do you think they will move it in April!
CM,
Now after seeing this, I am convinced that DOS keeps track of all the expert predictions and does exactly the opposite. What do you think :D
Jokes apart, it was really disappointing to see dates move only 4 months when everyone and every other site was saying atleast 6 months movemebt will happen.
My PD is Dec 2010 .. GOD only knows when will I finally get my EAD :(
My pd is June 2010.I feel horribLe :(
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_March2012.pdf
visa bulletin
Feel horrible!!!!
Think about folks who have been waiting for more than 5 years and you won't feel like that.
HI CM
My PD is Nov 4th 2010 EB2 I. Do you think my PD will become current this year?
Hi CM,
Congrats on doing so much good work here for this forum, many wishes.
I have my PD as 1st June2010 EB2-I, i missed the current bulletin by a 1+month for my dates to become current, any hopes that it would be current in next VB or not? or will the dates halt/retrogress in next VB?
I-140 Eb-2 NIW, I just I-485, but I have to find another similar job use EAD, no more than 180 days, does this effect my Green card approve ?
Both wife and I got the EAD and AP
approval email on 4FEB2012. Both received I 765 approval notice paper on
9FEB2012, but only wife got USPS pickup email on 6FEB2012 and combo
card on 9FEB2012 in Priority mail with tracking. **I have NOT received
the combo card yet.**
- What are the timelines for combo card?
- Is everyone getting card in Priority or regular mail ??????
- Did anyone travel without combo card in hand and later got it posted by friend to comeback on AP ?????? I am traveling on 17FEB2012
- What all documents, cards do we receive for EAD and AP. What are the timelines ??????
- Process for Infopass and timelines to get it.
HI CM
My PD is May 12th 2010 EB2 I. Do you think my PD will become current in April bulletin?
hi cm
my pd is may 20 2006 phil. do you think i will received my gc in 2012?
thank you!
OMGC, I believe if things will keep moving as they are right now then you might see some light during end of this year. One year ago no one expected this kind of reduction of expected demand (atleast not me) until recent now. We should be content with this because getting green card in a year or two for Indian national in EB2 in itself is amazing. Hopefully this will be the case for coming years for other folks.
For this fiscal year, it is 50-50 chance. Let see. If retrogression is not extensive then you may expect to be current next fiscal year for sure.
Around April-June 2012.
Thank you Sanjay. Appreciate your motivating comment.
If dates do not retrogress beyond your PD when case is ready for adjudication then you may expect approval in 2-4 months from now.
Yes unless your case is stucked into any kind of checks, additional review or verification.
For EB2-IC you should receive approval very soon. In month or two at most unless there are any complications. Hopefully processing times will be updated tomorrow.
I hoping that there will be some movement in next VB. Hopefully you will be current next month.
If you have recently filed I-485, you are expected to stick to your employer for atleast 180 days before you can change employer using AC21.
It is common that many times husband and wife's EAD Card/Green Card will not arrive in mail together although they are approved together. This could be for simple reason as error during card production or error on card that was caught before shipping. In such case representative from USCIS will destroy your card and ask for reproduction. Since Card Production for a day are scheduled through automated batch process, next card production for your case will scheduled for later date, usually within one week. In case your new card is not received within 15 days, open a SR thru phone or Infopass.
Chances are 50-50 but I am feeling very optimistic about your date. Lets see.
Dando, yes you would receive GC this year. You will be current in 2-3 months. Cheers
EB5 has used 2364* visas just First Quarter for FY 2012. For FY 2011 it just used 3463. Seeing this I do not know where will we go with EB5 visa numbers. Based on this, I am expecting atleast 6k-7K to be used by EB5 for this year, just leaving 3K-4K for spillover. Please consider this while calculating in above calculations. We will keep an eye on this.
See Page 12/12
http://www.eb5insights.com/files/2012/01/USCIS-Jan-2012-Presentation3.pdf
Thanks a lot for your answer...hope to see my PD current in coming bulletien
Thats true cause people were having problem with the GreenCard processing they say that it was a long waiting process . And here in GreenCard it will help you for your GreenCard and other immigration related info's.
Can you explain how do you calculate PERM to Inventory Conversion Factor of 0.42? Is it total overall factor from total EB India PERMs to Inventory demand?
Interesting, while I see that demand is literally nil beyond September 2008 up until mid 2009 you foresee folks beyond September 2008 not receive GCs this FY?. I thought it should go easily into 2009.
My prio date is March 2009 E B2. Can I be optimistic of GC by the end of 2012 / Jan-Feb 2013?. Thanks.
Demand in demand data is not representative of cases filed. It only tells about cases ready to approve and just waiting for visa numbers. This is different from cases pending and waiting for adjudication.
Upto Jan-Feb 2013 for sure.
hello there cm any chance of being current EB 2 july 20 2006 Phils this year?thank you for your time
im sorry that is EB3 July 20, 2006 phils
thank you CM
My PD is August 2010. What are the chances of this becoming current in the next couple of months? Thanks.
I am in the same boat with PD in August 2010. Hope this gets current soon. CM any idea what would be the worst case for this.
Our priority is Nov 2007 do you think we will miss the boat?People after us are getting greened 2008 and 2009 and so..Do you see any luck for Nov 2007?
well it does look like the date won't be getting current anytime soon since the predictions are for retrogression:(
ZERO...:(
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