Sunday, February 26, 2012

Adjusted EB2-India & China FY 2012 Retrogression Estimation based on I-485 Receipt Data

Sunday, February 26, 2012 | , , , , , , , ,

Based on newly released USCIS Receipts and Approvals for Q1-FY 2012, we would like to adjust the estimation of retrogression for FY 2012 for EB2-India & China Category. This time we were fooled by USCIS January 2012 Inventory which in reality is nothing but a muck of mislaid data. Either USCIS inventory was incomplete in terms of November 2011 and December 2011 to an error of greater than 50% or currently released document has some error. Most likely at this point January Inventory looks incomplete not only with respect to December 2011 visa bulletin movement data but to great extent to November 2011 data. In any case, at this time we feel dejected to outline that we are back to square-one where we started for FY 2012. If any of this is accurate to 80-90%, we are talking about severe retrogression.

Visa Usage or Approvals from the released data 
Currently released data suggests that atleast 31,541 visas were used in Q1-FY 2012. This looks reasonable based on estimated visa use that was published few months ago. 

Estimated EB2-IC visa use upto Q1-FY 2012 is 8000+4805 (PWMB). Also for EB3 category at least 15% or more visa is used by Consular Processed (CP) cases, so monthly visa use is 0.85*3367 = 2861 per month at USCIS. For 3 months it becomes, 2831*3 = 8,493. EB4 could have used 2495 or more in Q1 and EB5 has used 2864 based on released data. Estimated from January Inventory, EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P use was  around 3,580 and 2321 respectively.
Visa use in Q1-FY2012 =  3580 + 8000+ 4805 + 2321+  8493 + 2495 + 2864 = 32,558 (approx 31,541)

EB2-IC Receipts from the released data 
Most disturbing and contradicting to January Inventory data is the total EB category receipts issued in Q1-FY 2012. YTY we had seen that total I-485 EB Receipts at TSC and NSC were 27% - 33% of total I-485 receipts at these service centers. Well current data suggests that when EB2-IC cut-off dates were moved so much in last 6 bulletins, this is no longer true. EB category receipts due to such huge movement now estimates as large as 50%-60% of total I-485 receipts at these centers.

Based on EB receipts for each month as per currently released data, and current trackitt trend for filings in each month for Q1-FY 2012, EB2-India & China demand estimate has almost doubled than what was estimated earlier just because of I-485 EB receipts now representing 50%-60% of total receipts and not 27%-33% anymore. Tabulated results is based on taking EB2-IC trackitt data as it is and assuming EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P  representation is 1/4th of that of EB2-IC on trackitt. See this article for reference on how this is calculated.

 EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P estimation above jives well with new applications estimated from January Inventory. Estimation from January 2012 Inventory falls atleast 20% low again because of incompleteness.

One fallacy to above method is that we have not considered any EB3 to EB2 Porting and any new receipts for EB4 and EB5. Based on inventory EB3 to EB2 Porting is not more than 1800, and EB4 & EB5 demand is around 622+223 = 845. Assuming incompleteness of inventory, if we increase this number by 50% more, it comes out to be 845*1.5 = 1267. Though good chunk of EB4 and EB5 cases are CP cases we can ignore it at this point and assume all 1267 were filed at USCIS. Out of new EB2-IC cases, there will be few PWMBs too, which account for these receipts. Such number should be part of October receipts. Considering all these errors, EB2-IC demand for Q1-FY2012 comes out to be 23,787 - 1800 - 1267 = 20720. This is atleast 8000-9000 higher than 11,563 what we estimated from January Inventory. This tells us that January Inventory is totally bogus with respect to EB2-IC demand and should be ignored. Again if these are not EB2-IC numbers then any reduction in here should be accounted by increase in EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 or EB5 demand, which by all means suggest less contributed spillover to EB2-IC. Based on this March 2008 PD total demand for this year becomes

EB2-IC demand March 2008 =  8000+ 20,720 + 1,800 = 30,520

Now based on current EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, we are estimating that spillover for this year can be as high as 35,500 and as low as 28,800. So it still means June-July 2008 PD can receive green card this FY 2012. My personal opinion is that due to long processing time at USCIS, DOS may not have to retrogress dates all the way to June-July 2008 and then move them again in FY 2013.So this means we can still see October 2008 PD to be current for the remaning fiscal year. USCIS may approve cases more likely on basis of PD than receipt date. EB1 demand will be a gate keeper for this year based on USCIS efforts to reduce this huge inventory. EB2-ROW-M-P demand may yield more spillover compared to last year.

  • USCIS inventory was not indicative of real EB2-IC demand. We were fooled by those low numbers. Current Receipt data suggests that EB2-IC demand upto March 2008 PD is capable to use 30,520 visa numbers.
  • PD June-July 2008 should expect Green Card this year with dates still hovering around October 2008 - November 2008 incase DOS decides to avoid severe retrogression and moving dates again in FY 2013.

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Guest said...

When do you think EB2I PD Oct 2009 will get the Green Card!

Appreciate your analysis.

Rohit said...

Hi CM ,

My PD is April 2008 ,

I have received the EAD and AP ,Could u pls let me know when can i expect the GC .


CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Here is another outlook after totally ignoring so called demand destruction but only considering how available visas could be used this year.
EB1+EB2 = 40,040
EB4 – 9,940
EB5 -  9,940
EB2 – 40,040
Total Visas Available = 99,960
Q1 Approvals at USCIS- 31,541
Total Q1 Approvals including CP cases around 15% = 1.15*31,541 = 36,272
EB3 Approvals in Q1 = 3*3367 = 10,101
Visas Left = 99.960 – (36,272-10,101) = 73,789
Q1 Receipts at USCIS – 35,445 (EB3 new receipts should be close to 0)
Total Q1 Receipts including CP cases around 7% = 1.07*35,445 = 37,926
(Since majority of CP demand comes from EB3, it will be fair to assume EB1, EB4, EB5 and some EB2 CP Demand to be less than 15%, taking half (7%) assumption. You can use your own assumptions)
All cases filed until Q1 will be approved this FY 2012 (EB1, EB2, EB2-IC upto March 2008)
Visas Left = 73,789-37,926 = 35,863
EB4 will use its entire quota this fiscal year
Visas Left = 35,863-(0.75*9940) = 28,408
EB5 will use atleast 4500 more visa this fiscal year
Visas Left = 28,408 – 4,500 = 23,908
Without even considering any new I-485 filings from January 2012 onward, what can we do this with remaining 23,908 visa numbers
Note FY 2012 EB January 2012 Inventory suggests that there are pending
EB1 =15,583
EB2-ROW-M-P = 13,551
Obviously USCIS will have some pending Inventory going into FY 2013. EB1 applications are not low hanging fruits so we can say that they will only approve more 5000-7000 cases of these but EB2-ROW-M-P is as simple as EB2-IC cases. If they will approve all these cases this FY 2012, we are left with 23,908-7000-13551 = 3357 visa numbers.
With these 3357 visa left, USCIS can ONLY approve few cases who filed in January 2012 but EB2-IC dates will retrogress to somewhere between Priority Dates that were current in January VB (i.e. March 2008 – January 2009). Most likely around July 2008 – October 2008 just to avoid unnecessary retrogression and forward movement for FY 2013. This is all done assuming NOT EVEN single new (EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 or EB5) case will be approved for those filed after January 2012.
This is where we are heading with respect to EB2-IC just based on receipt numbers and approvals in Q1 by totaling ignoring demand destruction and abandonment of cases. Obviously unless dates will retrogress, applications will be approved randomly and then when retrogression is imminent, PD of the person who will be after last eligible documentarily qualified individual will be EB2-IC cut-off date.

Funfun27 said...

 Then it means next bulletin it will retrogress? thats disappointing mine is july 2010

Rzvikas said...

Do you think Retrogession is quite possible in april 2012 VB ?

gkaren123 said...


 Thanks for the nice analysis. When do you think I should be getting the GC, PD Oct 2007 filed in the first week of Jan 2012 with TSC, FP done (3 weeks back) & got the EAD (1 week back). 

Approvals with the visa numbers are by PD + Filed Date or how is it? But based on the current approvals filings as of now looks like approvals are coming till PD Mar 2008 for EB2 -I (based on trackitt data)

winchester said...


My PD is april 10, 2006 EB3 Phil when do you think my case will be current? Is there any hope that the predicted april 2012 VB becomes April 15 2006 rather than April 8? Also, what do you think is the implication of the new cases inventories to the visa availability of EB3 Phil

Thank you

Srini98557 said...

USCIS is doing a good job in helping stagnant applications.
I hope for the best and not be fearful for a possible retrogression.

Abc said...


GG said...

You subtracting twice and coming up with a wrong number. The 37K receipts include about 20K for EB1+EB2(nonIC). These are already reflected in the inventory. So why are you deducting the pending inventory numbers again after you have subtracted the Q1 receipts from available visas? So basically there are 23K visas left. Get your math right!

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Dude there were 14028 (EB1) + 11048 (EB2(nonIC) cases) pending going into October 2011. These are 25,076 cases. EB2-IC cases from October 2011 Inventory was 12950. These are 38026 cases going into October 2011. Add EB4 visa usage for 2485 and 2864 for EB5 for Q1. I am sure these demand also came from previous year and not from new receipts. Total Q1 demand without receipts = 38026+2845+2864 = 43735. 

 Cases approved Q1 for EB1 and EB2 = (36,272-10,101) = 26,171. What will you carry forward in Q1 apart from new receipts = 43735-26171 =17564 cases .  I did not wanted to go through this calculations there (thanks to you  now I did) so I assumed same EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P cases from January inventory as they are exactly close to what we have in October 2011.  Yeah with this you can get 3K-6K.  Now we have not included any CP cases that were waiting going into October 2011 as visas were exhausted second week of September. That may take away some more numbers. I hope now you feel that MATH is right and it will clear anyone's doubt.

By no means it mean retrogression will happen immediately as all new receipts will turn into demand in few months but DOS does not need to move dates. If it will move dates in coming bulletin then it will only be due to miscommunication among two government bodies (USCIS and DOS).

Desi Dude said...

 You are the best CM !!!!

Boy4Green said...

CM -

My PD is 10/4/2007 and I got my Greencards yesterday. I had been a very vivid follower of your site. This site has given me lots of information and derive some predictability to the whole Visa number allocation and visa bulletins. I am writing this to thank you for your efforts and service to the community.

CM said...

Congrats Boy4Green on receiving Green Cards. I am glad we were of any help. We wish you and your family good luck for future. God Bless.

Abvg said...

Hey ABC, Give me Green Card now.

Kksbmi said...

Going by your PERM database, roughly 18K PERM numbers are there between Jul 2007 and Apr 2008 for EB2IC. Do you think the pattern is likely to play out similarly in terms of GC cutoff dates? In such a case, the wait period for EB2 IC would be 4.5 years in coming years. China should jump to 'close to current' along the way...

KS said...

Hello CM,

I am a regular follower of your site,Well here is the scenario I thought it would be  a food for thought a little bit from out of the box, My PD is march 17 2008 EB2 I , I like most others had filed it in the month of Jan.But here is the catch,My attorney unfortunately delayed it by 2 weeks and the date application reached uscis was in the mid 20's in Jan.I did get a reciept notice,however there is no news apart from.I have been like everyone following trackitt for the processing of cases and here is what i found out, Nebraska hasnt issued any notices for Finger printing or EAD or anything at all after 18th Jan recieved date.And so does other centres(Max i saw was 3rd feb in other centres).Except for a very few random applications,It has been stalled for quite some time say 2-3 weeks especially in Nebraska centre.Any idea as why this is happening? or does it really send a signal that the visa's are used up for the quarter and they are waiting on spillover if it all any towards the final quarter (which I doubt there would be).?? are we all doomed for another 2007 event again because of the vigorous movement,building up inventory and then again making people wait?....

Another scenario a general question,Couple of applications with later  PD (mid/late after juner 2008) but who filed in earlier say begining of jan have already recieved their green cards (source trakitt).I am really happy for them but also I have a doubt when they have put in lot of applications without processing the ead/finger printing which can potentially have an earlier PD(early before juner 2008) approving a later PD is this normal?Do we have to understand something with this kinda approval?

I just had these 2 scenarios in my mind and wanted to share so that I might get some info which I may not know.Eagerly waiting for the replies.Just a thought for analyzing as there are data gurus here and so many
followers just like me.Any info is welcomed and valuable.Thanks a lot and
keep the work coming God bless everyone.

Thanks KS.

Guest12123 said...

go to any store, pay and get a card green in color...

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Interesting chat with Immigration Attorney Dimo Michailov from cilawgroup. Interesting comment on EB1. I wonder if approval for such cases has increased.

guest said...

April visa bulletin is updated on Phone and EB2-IC has no movement

Tempwork2009 said...

Yes its got increased.  Confirm news. Now because of visa movement trends compnays like , Infosys, Wipro, and all other indians big consulting company using EB1 to file for their employee ( based on Manager working on International company ) which located more than one country outside USA .

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Until dates will not retrogress approval of green card will be random. You may be lucky until dates will retrogress. If you are not approved until retrogression then you should look towards Q1-Q2 FY 2013.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You should receive GC soon. We expect dates to retrogress not until July or later. For your case dates will not retrogress until your PD in any case. You will be greened soon.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You can expect GC anytime. Cases will be approved randomly regardless of PD as long as cases are current.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

There is no implication of new inventory to progress of EB3-ROW-M-P for rest of years. New numbers are in line with what we expect. You will be current next month.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Those 18K are just PERM numbers. Of those many may left or abandoned case due to unforeseen reason. Also not all are married so end of the day, numbers may be around 22K from these PERMs. Average time due to less cases in 2008 and 2009 may be around 3.5-4 year period still.

Guest said...

Why no coment on April Visa Bulletion?

Raj said...

What is your thoughts on this possible retro?

Zee said...

CM... My PD EB2-IC Nov 2008. I became current in Jan 2012. But due to delays by employer and attorney, application was filed only on March  13th. Do you think there is any chance of me getting GC this year?

Kva reddy said...


Can you please comment on below information?

On March 16, 2012, at the AILA Midwest Regional Conference in Chicago, Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Visa Control and Reporting at DOS, informed participants that he will likely retrogress India and China-mainland born Employment-Based Second Preference priority dates to around August 2007, effective with either the May or June 2012 Visa Bulletin. He also advised that he projects that all EB-1 visas available in FY2012 will be used this year, resulting in no "spilldown" to EB-2.


Winchester said...


Kindly post your May 2012 VB predictions. Thanks

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Practice Alert: Predictions on EB-2 Priority Date Movement in FY2012 for China-mainland Born and India
Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12032365 (posted Mar. 23, 2012)"

Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa Control & Reporting in the State Department, provided AILA with further information on priority date movement in the EB-2 category for China-mainland born and India for the remainder of FY2012. When the May Visa Bulletin is published, the China and India EB-2 cut-off will retrogress to August 15, 2007. Demand is still increasing at a very high rate and must be checked to maintain numbers for natives of other countries. As for projections for the remainder of the year, it is too early to predict movement. USCIS has informed Mr. Oppenheim that they will continue to “preadjudicate” adjustment applications received through April. The “preadjudicated” cases will be held by the State Department in the “pending” demand file. That way, the cases will be ready in October, or earlier, if the current number use pattern changes, and they are needed at the end of this fiscal year to assure utilization of the full employment-based permanent resident visa allocation.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

To all our readers, we are currently undergoing some major transition and will be almost inaccesible until 1st week of April . Please help each other with questions in meantime. We will back and running full time as we were before January 2012 soon around 10 April 2012.

May VB Predictions -
It will be update after Tuesday.

Zee said...

 CM. Bad news. I was hoping it will be in June. My PD is Nov 2008. Current in Jan 2012 but applied only on March 12th.
TSC; Receipt Date: 03-14-2012 Notice Date: 03-17-2012.
Waiting for FP notice. Do you think I have any realistic chance of getting approved by April 30?

Guest said...

Hi CM and other Gurus,

I need your valuable experience regarding my situation. I am currently working as a consultant and filed for EB2I with PD in Aug 2010. Now that retrogression is imminent I want to convert to full time and port the date to my new employer. My new employer can start my greencard process immediately but I am assuming it will take atleast 12 - 15 months for my new labour to get approved. I have few questions regarding my situation.

1. Will dates move to Aug'2010 in the next one year?
2. What happens to my old labor if my new labor or new 140 gets rejected?
3. Do you think this is a good decision.

I know few other friends of mine who are in the same situation and sure any other who will get benefitted from your answers. Please advice on this.

NotSoSmartDesi said...

Hi CM,

My Details are as follows

EB2 India
PD: 04/22/2008
FD: 02/07/2012
LUD: 02/14/2012
Service Center: Nebraska

I haven't recieved my EAD, AP or FP. Can I kiss my GC chances good bye before the dates retrogress in May or June bulletins. If so what would be a realistic expectation by Oct 2012 or will that be dragged to 2013?

Thanks for your time and expertise.


Kumar said...

My priority date is Nov 2010. when will i be current.

Thanks in advance !!


CM_USNonImmigrants said...

EB5 usage upto March 2012 is 2403. China has more than 69% usage of EB5 category. If this is pace for EB5 we should expect some spillover from EB5 this year. Number will be around 5K minimum to 7K maximum. So of this is expected to be used by EB1 and other will trickle down to EB2 category.

Openaccount said...


so from your previous post "estimation of EB5 has used 2864 based on released data" is not correct then. Based on this can we assume that Eb5 might have used up to 1200-1500 in Q1 of 2012.If this is true  then  these visa were used up by either EB2IC or EB1(mostly EB1).

Openaccount said...


so from your previous post "estimation of EB5 has used 2864 based on
released data" is not correct then. Based on this can we assume that Eb5
might have used up to 1200-1500 in Q1 of 2012.If this is true  then remaining  visas were used up by either EB2IC or EB1(mostly EB1).

Openaccount said...


If we see approval trend in Jan/Feb/March there might be around 10K more people prior to March15th 2008 who are yet to receive approvals.

So for dates to to cross March 2008 itself we need nothing less than 10k

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