We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover. Please note PWMB demand is only upto cut-off date of 15 April 2007 that last became current until September 2011.
We used I-485 Performance data from USCIS website to estimate representation of Employment-Based cases from the total I-485 cases filed at USCIS service centers. Please note that all the listed cases are filed at Texas Service Center or Nebraska Service Center as per instruction on I-485 form. Family-Based I-485 Cases are filed at Chicago Lock Box and then respectively forwarded to local field offices for processing.
Based on above data, we can safely assume that from time to time Employment-Based Category representation is around 27% of total I-485 cases received at USCIS Service Centers (TSC and NSC). Now if we assume that this percent representation also held true during June to September 2011, we can use I-485 Receipt data to estimate roll-over demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW to FY 2011, and calculate PWMB cases upto 15 April 2007 that will become documentarily qualified now until January 2012 which will take visa allocations from FY 2012.
Using assumption of 27%, we estimated that out of 73900 I-485 cases received by USCIS, atleast 19,953 cases were filed in Employment-Based category. We then used data from trackitt.com to get distribution of I-485 cases filed since June 2011 to September 2011 at USCIS. Some assumptions were made for EB2-IC representation on trackitt compared to other categories. Distribution for each assumption is tabulated below.
We can arrive at similar demand for PWMB upto 15 April 2007 after using I-485 inventory released data until October 2011. Estimation comes around 4,136 + 8,965 - 8,000 = 5,101. In reality actual numbers can be less but we should still keep track of PWMB cases from FY 2011 that still are not approved at USCIS. Approvals on trackitt look far less than hoped for. Although we still believe some movement may happen for EB2-IC in next bulletin but outlook for EB2-IC based on spillover looks less optimistic. Only reason we believe some more movement may happen is because this is first year when USCIS wlll really have to approve total 140K - CP cases in an year (apart from HR 3012 scenario). So far USCIS always relied on pre-adjudicated cases to reach their annual target. More cases pending at USCIS means more clean cases ready by end of the year for approvals. In case such approvals are not possible then CP cases are only hope for DOS.
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17 comments:
Hi CM,
Thank you for your excellent analysis. Have a related question. In past few months, many primary I-485 applicants who applied in 2007 with around June 2007 PD got their GC. And observed that few dependent I-485 applicantions filed in this year 2011 got their GC's approved in 2 months or even less than 2 months from I-485 receipt date! While majority of the dependent I-485 applications filed this year 2011 took approximately 4 to 5 months depending upon the service center.
My question would be is there any criteria or circumstances in which few of the dependant I-485 applications are approved pretty quickly by USCIS like the one explained above ? Thank you.
hi CM
i have a small doubt. After getting GC can we own any agricultural land or commercial land in India? i heard agricultural land can be owned before getting GC but not after that. what about commercial land? Are we supposed to pay tax for it in US? and if we own the commercial land before getting GC are we still supposed to pay tax of that land after we get GC?
Thanks in advance. your help would be highly appreciated. anyone with similar case your comments would be appreciated.
Shely,
This is a question probably for a CPA. Anyways, you can own any property in India as long as you are an Indian citize. Being on GC you are not giving up your citizenship. You should worry about this probably when you plan to take up US Citizenship.
you can buy the white house after getting your GC.
What amazes me is that Asylee and Refugee gets more than twice green card than Employment Based Category and then they say why EB is backlogged. They need to revisit their Asylee and Refugee policy, those numbers are huge.
Isn't this whole data is from FY2011? How does it affect FY12? And important question is didn't CO knew this before he made the statement on Oct 26th?
I think there are hardly couple cases that were approved in 2 months. It could just depend upon IO to whom the case was assigned with less load and at same time visa allocation were available for IC on requisition. Possibly such allocations were requested before October 2011 and were made available later. But majority of cases are still waiting for approvals, NSC were processing case for IC efficiently but now have started slowing down due to load from other categories. It is always random at USCIS. Variability depend upon IO, box assigned to IO, date they are processing at centers, and visas available at time of
approval.
You still citizen of your country even after receiving GC. Same rules as before abides even after receiving permanent residency. when you will become us citizen you will have to check with attorney in your country.
I-485 received in last quarter or spillover in FY 2011 will become documentary qualified in FY 2012 as we know for case to use visas it can take 4-6 months from filing. So all these cases will be using visas from FY 2012 allocation. So if you will add these projected demand to current I-140 backlog we are talking about less spillover for this year. I think when you say CO you mean Mr. oppeneheim? For him all this demand does not matter unless they are ready to use visas. All these cases were suppose to start using visas numbers in late October and November. This is when he will start seeing this demand and request for visa. We can see this from sudden rise in EB1 and EB2 ROW approvals on trackitt since few days. How this will affect quarterly spillover for next quarter is something for DOS to think about before making movement for January VB. Matter of fact, I went back and just now saw our calculations for EB1 and EB2-ROW based on I-140 and PERM data respectively that we calculated in September 2011- http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/09/visa-bulletin-october-2011.html, These numbers aligns so well with I-485 receipt data calculated above for 2 X case that they now look more real.
If PWMB cases will start looking similar to above then whenever they will show in demand data that may mean retrogression from there. So for future movement this doesn't look great. Next VB movement can be last one whatever it will be. I am hoping for 01 Jul 2008 but does not feel positive at all after looking at demand from other categories and pwmb estimation. Let's wait and watch.
Can you guys change the theme of this page please? This white fonts on the black background really hurts my eyes! I am using FireFox's latest release.
In my opinion, it takes away a bit of the fun of reading such good research!
All this really amazes me: the country which is driving digital innovations does not actually have a system to segregate data, and then we have to venture with statistical approximations. If true, the data can change public discourse about actual issues in immigration.
NRI’s (Non resident indians) cannot buy agricultural land in India. Yes! all over India. Approval is required from the Reserve bank of India which one can assume is not easily available and this would depend on individual circumstances.
Furthermore, some State governments in India have rules that allow only farmers to buy agricultural land in their State and this restricts even Indian citizens from buying agricultural land.
NRis and Foreign citizens of Indian origin cannot acquire agricultural land by way of gift. They can only acquire agricultural land by inheritance.
Commercial Property does not follow the same rules though.
Shely, google is your friend, girl!
Anyway, green card holders are subject to the same tax laws as us citizens, including paying taxes on income earned abroad... through commercial farming for example . Even if you moved to India with your green card you would owe us taxes on the money you make there (unless there's a tax treaty/substantive presence/etc.).
Welcome to America!
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/AllFormTypes_PerformanceData_FY11.pdf
As per the released data for AOS data for FY 2011, EB receipts are little more than we anticipated here. This is not good for spillover.
Receipts in last quarter were 22,139 vs 19,953 calculated.
Please let us know if this makes reading easy for you.
Thank you for providing more information.
You can buy agricultural land provided you already have an agricultural land in your name. Your father is farmer and you are in your family ration card, You can do anything
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