January 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see
following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa
numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
- EB3- China could advance to 22 September 2004
- EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 February 2006.
- EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
- EB3-India could advance to 08 August 2002.
- EB2-India and EB2-China could see No movement - 3.5 months movement. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Based on calculations, EB2-IC should stop over here; present demand would provide enough cases that can be allocated visas through EB2-IC annual limits and estimated spillover as per current trend. January 2012 movement will be solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake enough buffer demand for FY 2012. At this time, our gut feeling is that movement can be as big as 1-3.5 months in January 2012 visa bulletin before we may see retrogression. In successive bulletins (Feb-Mar 2012) dates may stall or even retrogress (exception is H.R. 3012). We will be more confident on Jan VB after release of this month’s demand data.
Note – Predictions
are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain
of salt.
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98 comments:
Thanks CM.
Hello CM, I am currently on EB2 India with priority date of 31-Jul-08. Please let me know when I will become current.
Hi CM,
Keeping last month's record movement, and chances of retrogression by summers, when do you think priority date - 20-Nov-2008 EB2-India will become current?
Regards
Sandip
thanks
thanks
Girl 13
Anybody from HRPC MVH applicant?
thanks
Hi CM,
Thanks for your January predictions. HR3012 passed and what is your predictions for EB2I and EB3? Expecting your analysis.
Prediction stays as it is. DOS will not worry about it much until it passes in Senate. Mr O. will already cover enough base by next VB bulletin. Once it will become law, he may do one final big movement in March-April based on demand in hand. That is enough time to adjudicate cases and approve them by October 2012.
EB3 category is of little concern as of now for him as all these cases should be adjudicated by now. All he has to do is make them current until December 2004 if it will become law. EB3-ROW may advance until Feb-Mar 2012 in case bill is not approved in Senate by December. If it does then it will retrogress or stall.
Thank you.
Hi CM thanks for your great efforts and exceptional analysis.Please let me know when the demand data can be released.
Appreciate responce.
Hi CM,
Good day! thanks for the Jan. predictions.
I have a little concern since Im going to missed the VB this jan.I am feb. 8, 2006, & my concern if this bill will passed this december, do I need to wait more months or years? I am worried, pls. enlightened.
Len
Hi CM, Thanks as always!
One question - an immigration attorney friend of mine says that he expects as the dates advance for India and China, he expects a lot of abandoned applications - so people who applied and were in que, but left the country due to job losses in 2008 and 2009 and will not be applying for GCs even though their priority dates may be current.
He feels that the retrogression many are conisdering inevitable will never happen because the demand will be much lower because of a large number of abandoned GC applications. Your thoughts please?
my pd is 19th of october 2006 EB3 row .do you have any prediction after passing the law for me ?
My priority date is July 28, 2006 EB3-P. When do you think my date will become current?
BTW i filed for I485 in July 07 and am on EAD
Without HR3012, retrogession is inevitable during summer and you will be current November 2012. However if HR3012 becomes a law, you will be current on the next month and get your GC by 2012 September.
Hi CM
you mean that only EB3 ROW will be retrogresses and p-M and china; India go forward!!!!!
then again it is not a law which is against discrimination !If it has effect only on EB3Row
Hi CM
I heard that this law has a bad effect only on EB3 ROW .and other countries will go forward till 2014.what do you say please answer my questios.
Hi CM,
My priority Date is October 2011(EB2 India), and its more than 6 months filing for I 140, Is there any chance of getting GC by 2014.
Thanks for continuous effort to clarify questions and providing valuable information.
CM,
Can we expect the January VB this Thursday?
Hi CM,
Did you hear anything from ur friend ?
It can be anytime from next 2 month-Dec 2012. We will have to see where DOS will plan to retrogress the cut-off dates. We will know more by next bulletin.
It will be in FY 2013. Chances for this year is null unless HR 3012 passes.
It should be up by this Wednesday (latest Thursday).
You will be fine as bill may not pass before Xmas
Mostly it will be Friday.
No word from him as he is on vacation. Hard Luck this month.
Hi CM,
I AM EB3 ROW with PD of DEC 17 2007. When I should expect for my date to be current?
CM, Is there any possibility to file 485 before 2012 for Nov, 19 2008 EB2I priority date?
That could be true but we will need to wait and see how demand data will shake up in next few months. As you can also see in the polls on right there are quite few number of double filings as well. So we will need to consider that as well. Once poll vote would go above 100-150 we can try to revamp our PERM estimation. Cases which are abandoned are difficult to assume but by no means we can say some portion of all individuals may not try to recapture PD if not possible as long as they can get sponsors. In short we will know more once demand data will starts showing numbers for currently filed cases vs PERM expected demand.
March 2015 with this passes and Dec 2012 with this not passes.
You should be current around June August 2011 with no change in status quo
No, M-P will always moves with ROW no matters what.
Please use table in article on HR 3012. ROW- M - P will move together.
Reserved visa will be for ROW M P for transition period and Unreserved will be for IC in general during that time.
I oppose HR3012. For those who wishes to continue supporting the effort, please go to the following website:
http://www.petition2congress.com/5677/oppose-hr-3012-its-companions-1857
Hello CM,
I fall under ROW and my PD is April 28th 2006?When I will be current?Do you think I will be safe before this HR3012 will pass by senate?
Thanks for your help.
Rajiv
Hello CM,
My priority date is feb. 7, 2006 and I fall under EB-3 ROW category. Do you think I will be current on January 2012 visa bulletin? If my priority date do become current, then when can I expect my green card as I had applied for the green card back in october 2007? Like many others I have been waiting in line for many years!
CM,
Demand data for January is not yet released. Do you think Jan VB will be out to tomorrow?
It will be out tomorrow.
Wow - EB2 I moves to 1st Jan 2009 !!!!!!
Mumbai consulate website posted that EB-2 advanced to Jan 1st 2009. Can we believe this, if yes then I am current jet wanted to confirm with experts.
Visa BulletinReleased. Xmas is here for EB2-IC. Congrats to all those who are current.
Category India Most Other Countries
F1 15-October-2004 15-October-2004
FX 22-March-2009 22-March-2009
F2A 22-April-2009 22-April-2009
F2B 8-September-2003 8-September-2003
F3 1-November-2001 1-November-2001
F4 15-August-2000 15-August-2000
E1 Current Current
E2 1-January-2009 Current
E3 8-August-2002 1-February-2006
EW 1-August-2002 1-February-2006
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current
Current
thats not for EB2... its for E2.... they both are different
That is awasome!!
Rajeev. Congrats folks.
Hi Folks ---- It is 1-JAN-2009 now. CM please update and post your Feb 12 Predictions at your earliest. Why you took till 22 to post the predictions, any specific reason?
Please provide the link for the site
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Jan2012.pdf
D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA
AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.
Expect much more move may be 6-8 months more for EB2-IC.
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Jan2012.pdf
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5630.html
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Jan2012.pdf
D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA
AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.
Expect much more movement may be 6-8 months more for EB2-IC.
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Jan2012.pdf
They havent published the Demand data yet! It will be very interesting to see what are the numbers!!
CM,
I'd like to know your honest opinion. Do you think the people that decide the cut-off dates are competent? When I look at these movement of the cut-off dates I can only think they don't know what they are doing. How come EB3-ROW moved only 2 weeks? What is worse, they've had the demand data for 7 years and they cannot provide accurate predictions (CO predicted 3-4 weeks).
I believe the existing confrontation between I/C vs Rowers for HR 3012 is in part because the immigration system is frustrating. You can never know what to expect. I really think the immigrant community should come together to ask for some changes in the people that make these decisions. No because we are immigrants we have to put up with this.
long time follower. first time posting..
thanks for all the great work CM...
Mr.O seems to have some xmas gifts for lot of us..!
do u think in this rapid movement, in the next 1-2 quarters, can the eb2 cross march 2010 OR is that too much to ask.!!
i guess once the Dec demand data is released, then it will be more clear picture of how many filings they have recieved OR by Jan end or Feb end when they have enough filings, this movement may cease until next year (touchwood.. :))
your thoughts ?!
Hello CM,
My Priority date is 2/17/2009 EB2. With this rapid movement will i be current in next bulletin? Thank you
Hello CM
Lot of people have gone back in 2008, 2009 & 2010. Also in 2010 filing for GC was very less. Keeping these information in mind, my PD being June 2010. How long I may have to wait to become current? In 2 months it has moved one year. Please share your thoughts. I am planning to go back as I am fedup of my employer.
Is the demand data released yet. I still see the November 7th update. Please post once it is released.
CM,
I got green card last week and my son GC had mistake. Went to USCIS and stamped in my son passport for one year and went to India last sunday. Today got a call from my employer that my position had terminated imeediately. Is there any problem with my and my son GC? I am planning to travel to India immditely since I don not have a job. so that can spent holidays at home and come back in January. Please let me know is there any issue?
Hi CM,
I have got GC last week and noticed that my GC is having gender mistake. Got stamped in his passport and let to India on Monday Dec 5tt. Today my employer called me and informed that my position is terminated immediately. Is it going to impact myson/self GC? want to travell to India immediately since I do not have job. Could you please let me know is there any issue with immigration?
Thanks CM,
Really appreciate your effort.
Thanks once again.
Regards
Sandip
Hello CM,
EB2 Dec2010 India PD here.Looking at all the activity today gives me a glimmer of home. When do you estimate I might become current?
Hi Cm,
My PD became current in Nov visa bulletin and got receipt date of 1st week of November at NSC. With the current movement to Jan 2009 how long would be the wait before getting GC in hand. i heard once it becomes current it no longer is first in first out or goes by PD? Please clarify.
Thx a ton and may god bless you
Thanks
It is quite possible in FY 2014-2015. It all depends upon how demand would shake up around summer 2012. Per recent comment from DOS, as of now they believe demand is too low from anticipated. We will know more once all the recent cases filed with start showing up in demand data or updated I-485 inventory around January 2012.
It can take atleast 2.5 years more before you will be current.
I am not sure what will happen with HR 3012 but it will take you atleast 5-6 months more to become current in case bill is not passed..
I am little worried about the EB3-ROW movement that happened this month. It is still not clear to me why EB3-ROW moved only by 2 weeks against 3 weeks. As per my calculation thats only 1200 visas worth movement. I have to go back and check inventory especially for EB3-P. Not quite sure yet If HR 3012 is affecting Mr. Oppenheim's decision. I will know more once I will start writing about January 2012 VB.
Anyways to answer your question, you have to wait until next VB and once current you should receive GC same month when you are current if you are an AOS application.
Only reason is I tend to wait and see if there is any more news from USCIS/DOS on new numbers, data, figures or statements before making my calculations.
No Demand Data for this month.
I would not say they are very competent, they very well know what they are doing. Only difference is that they have more visibility to demand then we do. We calculate based on assumptions and they based on real numbers. So what they are doing is very much correct. CP demand is always unknown to us but they have more hold of that. With recent release of NVC waiting list that numbers must have changed significantly hence change in movement.
Other thing that come to my mind is if DOS/Mr. O movement was little conservative based on HR 3012 but I feel that he would not affect any movement just based on possibilities. So less movement we saw could be real. We will know more with more successive movements.
CM , My most importrant date is nov 29th 2009, EB2 India. If you are GOD then pls confirm the date i would be able to file 485. If not then pls predict for the same . Pls dont consider 3012 then predict what is the the most optimistic scenario for me. Every night i'm dreaming that the demand will be low and USCIS will get frustrated and will advance the date to Jan 1 2010 or beyong. Oh Yeah...... whatta pleasure .....pls wake me up
Thank you for posting Kumar.
One thing is sure from all this movement that we saw this month is that Mr O. believes in what he sees. He does not take into account anything just based on assumptions, past pattern, receipts etc. In fact, that is what he should do in his capacity.
From what he is doing it is very apparent that he will continue moving dates until he will see enough demand that he think should be enough to completely use anticipated visa numbers that he has in mind. So for now we all should try to live in the moment and just wait until party is over. Dates will keep on moving unless he is satisfied with demand. Movement may continues until Feb-Mar 2012 and then will retrogress.
If we take example of FB category dates moved by 2 years and then retrogressed also by 2 years. So it all depends upon demand. All I can say whenever retrogression will happen it will be more than anticipate and then things will recalibrate in successive visa bulletin. PERM numbers are deciding factor and multiple PERM filings is still something we need to get hold off. We will know more when next inventory would release. Just based on polls we have on Multiple PERMs rough estimation is that of all filed PERMs in last few years only 60% is real numbers (114 out of 188) and other 40% are double counting. Let see how this will show up in next inventory. If 60 % is real factor then June-July 2008 will receive GC just based on 25K spillover this year. With HR 3012, January-February 2009 is the reality. This is still rough estimation but we will know more with inventory.
Very much a possibility.
Krishna, Please see my reply to Kumar.
Demand Data will not be released for this month. It will release next month now. Releasing demand data is not mandatory for DOS. It is just released for more visibility.
I think you should be fine as long as your employer is not planning to inform USCIS about their intent to not to hire you or keep you anymore.
How things are going I would say anywhere in few months to 1 year. I am not sure unless I see real demand.
Once it is current, I-485 are approved mostly based on receipt date, visa availability and service center. SInce you are at NSC, you will receive GC in 4-5 months if dates do not retrogress past your PD.
Please do not compare me to HIM. I am a GOD fearing individual.
Dates will move in successive VB as per Mr. O but how much is far beyond my estimation. We can expect atleast 6-8 month movement next VB if demand is still as low as this month which I believe will be even for next month. November applicants will not be documentarily qualified until February-March 2012 for sure.
CM, I know you said that you are not sure, but EB2 India Dec 2010 current in 1 year???? Don't you think it's going to retrogress much before? Don't get me wrong....my PD is around same time.
CM,
Looking at the current trend when do you thinnk I can file 485 with a PD Jan 7th 2010?
Appreciate your response.
MK
RD, I understand what you are saying. First of all it will only happen if that 60% conversion to real I-485 demand exists that we are thinking based on Multiple PERM poll. If that is true then there will be 84959 applications for EB2-IC until Feb 2011. If and only if HR 3012 is passed that means EB2-IC can reach August-October 2010 only based on (28800 + 10000 [Spillover]) visa numbers. We know this demand but Mr O. does not. So dates may progress far beyond that or until late 2011 in this case. So I see him getting current in a year or so if HR 3012 passes.
If not then I agree Dec 2010 is a stretch in a year just based on 5600 + spillover. But still it will be current in two or so years. All is based on 60% multiple PERM factor.
It could be anywhere from few month to mid FY 2013. It all depends how demand will compare to PERM numbers that we calculated. We need to get that factor to make fair estimation of wait time.
Congratulations to everybody who are current. I was reading through different forums last night and came across this website and they say predictions are pretty close http://www.myprioritydate.com/, don't know what is the source for this information though. Just sharing, please don't take it for granted.
CM, thanks for all your hard work. Hope you don't mind me sharing this on your forum.
Please feel free to share link any thing that can help community.
Read kumar explaination given by you. Thanks CM. I pray H.R 3012 is passed January 2012.
Dear CM,
I appreciate your time and your work to help us. I saw your reply to kumar. If you think the June/July 2008 is for this fy with 60% of perm conversion, will we see more movement in next bulletin? Do you think CO can gauge the receipts before releasing Feb bulletin?
So far it looks like some more movement may happen next visa bulletin. Mr. O with definitely gauge receipts because he specifically mentioned rate of filing versus demand in his blurb. In any case not publishing demand data for this month opens lot of conspiracy theory. I am not sure what is his game plan but looks like USCIS is definitely communicating some I-485 filings rate to him. Next VB may be just based on filings and not demand. Lets see.
What is the difference between demand and filings? I was thinking they are the same. When you say demand -- do you mean when they get the EAD?
Because that would mean that actual demand is only a subset of the number of filings.
Also the blurb mentioned the cutoff date will be moved possibly beyond January. So we can definitely except further movement next month (don't know how much).
My PD is Jul 2009.... hoping it will move until then in the next few months.
Thanks CM for the informaiton
I am just curious ... what if employer inform to the USCIS??? How does it matter if someone has GC?
CM ,
Thanks for your reply, I did a typo error. Its actually October 2010 not October 2011. Based on the current trend, would I can expect to file for 485- some time in 2012 to 2013 .
CM, my EB2 India PD is Sep 2010, when do you predict my PD will be current? Please advise.
Filing means - Case which are filed and issued receipts.
Demand - Cases are which are adjudicated and ready to use visa numbers.
Filing will happen when dates become current.
Demand due to those filings may happen 4-6 months from receipt date.
Atleast 4-6 month movement could happen if DOS thinks they need to do one last movement next VB.
When you received GC, you are expected to work for that employer atleast for some time (90 days - 1 year) or employer is expected to keep you for same amount of time. In case you do not do that or employer terminate your employment before that time, it shows pre-conceived intention to not to hire employee for GC sponsored job. This is a gray area and veteran IOs take this seriously. If USCIS is informed through an employer to not to hire applicant for the GC sponsored job, USCIS has rights to revoke your GC.
Since posters received GC last month and employer even issued EVL for the RFE raised few weeks ago, successive termination of employment could be considered fraud or misrepresentation on behlaf of employer. As long as he will not inform USCIS both petitioner or applicant are fine. Any information that USCIS will receive abut this would mean chances of GC getting revoked.
I would think 2013 or later to be current and receive GC.
Earliest late 2012- early 2013.
Hi CM,
I have a quick question. My package reached a day before my priority date become current. Can you please provide some input on what are my options at this point.
You may have to wait until USCIS will contact you. It may or may not get rejected. They are pretty fussy about it. Sending application on 30th and 31st is never a good idea. Best date is 1st of the month.
bkit ko makita ang hinahanap ko@! nakakainezzz
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