We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover. Please note PWMB demand is only upto cut-off date of 15 April 2007 that last became current until September 2011.
We used I-485 Performance data from USCIS website to estimate representation of Employment-Based cases from the total I-485 cases filed at USCIS service centers. Please note that all the listed cases are filed at Texas Service Center or Nebraska Service Center as per instruction on I-485 form. Family-Based I-485 Cases are filed at Chicago Lock Box and then respectively forwarded to local field offices for processing.
Based on above data, we can safely assume that from time to time Employment-Based Category representation is around 27% of total I-485 cases received at USCIS Service Centers (TSC and NSC). Now if we assume that this percent representation also held true during June to September 2011, we can use I-485 Receipt data to estimate roll-over demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW to FY 2011, and calculate PWMB cases upto 15 April 2007 that will become documentarily qualified now until January 2012 which will take visa allocations from FY 2012.
Using assumption of 27%, we estimated that out of 73900 I-485 cases received by USCIS, atleast 19,953 cases were filed in Employment-Based category. We then used data from trackitt.com to get distribution of I-485 cases filed since June 2011 to September 2011 at USCIS. Some assumptions were made for EB2-IC representation on trackitt compared to other categories. Distribution for each assumption is tabulated below.
We can arrive at similar demand for PWMB upto 15 April 2007 after using I-485 inventory released data until October 2011. Estimation comes around 4,136 + 8,965 - 8,000 = 5,101. In reality actual numbers can be less but we should still keep track of PWMB cases from FY 2011 that still are not approved at USCIS. Approvals on trackitt look far less than hoped for. Although we still believe some movement may happen for EB2-IC in next bulletin but outlook for EB2-IC based on spillover looks less optimistic. Only reason we believe some more movement may happen is because this is first year when USCIS wlll really have to approve total 140K - CP cases in an year (apart from HR 3012 scenario). So far USCIS always relied on pre-adjudicated cases to reach their annual target. More cases pending at USCIS means more clean cases ready by end of the year for approvals. In case such approvals are not possible then CP cases are only hope for DOS.
Thank you for your excellent analysis. Have a related question. In past few months, many primary I-485 applicants who applied in 2007 with around June 2007 PD got their GC. And observed that few dependent I-485 applicantions filed in this year 2011 got their GC's approved in 2 months or even less than 2 months from I-485 receipt date! While majority of the dependent I-485 applications filed this year 2011 took approximately 4 to 5 months depending upon the service center.
My question would be is there any criteria or circumstances in which few of the dependant I-485 applications are approved pretty quickly by USCIS like the one explained above ? Thank you.
i have a small doubt. After getting GC can we own any agricultural land or commercial land in India? i heard agricultural land can be owned before getting GC but not after that. what about commercial land? Are we supposed to pay tax for it in US? and if we own the commercial land before getting GC are we still supposed to pay tax of that land after we get GC?
Thanks in advance. your help would be highly appreciated. anyone with similar case your comments would be appreciated.
This is a question probably for a CPA. Anyways, you can own any property in India as long as you are an Indian citize. Being on GC you are not giving up your citizenship. You should worry about this probably when you plan to take up US Citizenship.
approval.
If PWMB cases will start looking similar to above then whenever they will show in demand data that may mean retrogression from there. So for future movement this doesn't look great. Next VB movement can be last one whatever it will be. I am hoping for 01 Jul 2008 but does not feel positive at all after looking at demand from other categories and pwmb estimation. Let's wait and watch.
In my opinion, it takes away a bit of the fun of reading such good research!
Furthermore, some State governments in India have rules that allow only farmers to buy agricultural land in their State and this restricts even Indian citizens from buying agricultural land.
NRis and Foreign citizens of Indian origin cannot acquire agricultural land by way of gift. They can only acquire agricultural land by inheritance.
Commercial Property does not follow the same rules though.
Anyway, green card holders are subject to the same tax laws as us citizens, including paying taxes on income earned abroad... through commercial farming for example . Even if you moved to India with your green card you would owe us taxes on the money you make there (unless there's a tax treaty/substantive presence/etc.).
Welcome to America!
As per the released data for AOS data for FY 2011, EB receipts are little more than we anticipated here. This is not good for spillover.
Receipts in last quarter were 22,139 vs 19,953 calculated.