Wednesday, December 21, 2011

October 2011 EB Demand from I-485 Receipt Data

Wednesday, December 21, 2011 | , , , ,

As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of October 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.

EB2-IC rough demand estimation that can be accounted until October 2011 is

Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 2679 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 15,486

Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 + 2200 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 13,685

*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog, after movements for October - November 2011 VB

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AS said...

Hi CM,

This is not related to this article.

I will be applying for I-485 on 1 JAN, currently my wife is on H4 and I am filling the same on I-485 documents. But if my get offer from any company she will like to do Change of status (to H1B, as she was previously on H1B), thus is it advisable to go on H1B (or change her status) after EAD is filed? or let remain on H4 only till EAD is approved.

Guest said...

Can you please give us a quick summary - is this data generally positive for India/China green card applicants or a negative? Thanks!

Abc said...

My PD 2010 Nov how long will it take to apply for 485


CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Simple summary would be that without approving single case after 15 July 2007, almost 13000-15000 visa numbers will be exhaused. Considering if we receive total spillover +annual limit of 30K like last year (which i doubt is too much for this year), we are only left with arounf 15K-17K visa numbers for EB2-IC, which on average means 6-10 months movement from July 2007 until where cut-off dates can retrogress. That is December 2007 to April 2008. Multiple PERM factor will determine where dates will actually end but anything more than June 2008 is over-expectation.

Anonymous said...

What does it look like? the more demand, the bad it is.
Also, these are just calculations based on lot of assumptions. I only trust Demand Data and/or
Inventory Report.

Anonymous said...

No offense, If there is 13k-15k demand before 15-Jul-2007, Why doesn't the demand data reflect that?
Also, Trackitt is not a reliable source, inventory report is.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

That's good question. Answer to this is

a) 8000 is already used, so it will not show up in demand data.
b) Other- 4K-5K which PWMBs, since dates are current they are using visa numbers as they are becoming adjudicated and getting approved. Unless after being pre-adjudicated they are lying on the shelf you will never see in the demand data. Even to see demand in demand data from November and December VB movement, date has to retrogress until then you will not see much numbers there.

I agree trackitt is not good representation of the demand but fair estimation can be made from it. I-485 Receipts are real, if they are not for EB2-IC then they are for EB1 and EB2-ROW. One way or other they will affect spillover or visa use and thus EB2-IC final movement.

Even inventory is not the fair representation of the demand because it just based on the date that was pulled. What it do not tell you is visa number use. Example I-485 Inventory from October to January will give you relative numbers on visa use but not on visas that were filed and approved in that time frame.

EB2-IC inventory from October 2011 shows around 13K applications pending on October 1, 2011.

Simi said...

SIr, I do not understand the data you released. Can you please help me to understand how it impacts me, my PD is Sep2010 EB2 India.

Vivek said...

October's receipt data is released in December 3rd week, which is a month and half from October 31st;
With this pace, they may not be able to gauge the demand generated by Dec'11 or Jan'12 bulletins before end of januray 2012; this makes me think that dates should move in the next bulletin as well.
CM..., I hope I am making an educated guess here :: ))

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

There is difference between AOS and COS (Change of Status). EAD has not relation with respect to changing COS. An applicant with pending AOS can have multiple COS application. i.e. H1 - H4 -H1 any number of times.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Anywhere from Q2 2013 to early 2014 without HR 3012.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

With Sep 2010, it can take you atleast 1-2 years before you an be current. You may receive GC within 2 years from today.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Bear in mind that USCIS dashboard is updated with all the form types and not I-485 alone. That said, it can take them time to gather and publish all the data on their website based on completions. But number of receipts generated can be easily pulled from Lockbox database. Mr. O clearly mentioned that he is looking at rate of filings. So yes dates will definitely move in Feb but not based on delay from USCIS but due to limited number of filings in first week of January.

Guest said...

Hi CM, My PD is Oct 2008 EB2 I, when can i expect my GC if i apply for 485 in Jan 2012

vivek said...

Good point; I didn't know that receipts are generated at the lock box step itself; however, I will be happy if dates move in Feb'12 bulletin as my PD is EB2I 01/14/2009.

Shish said...

Once 485 is applied, PD has no meaning. It gets processed randomly. Hence it may happen that an applicant with PD Dec 2011 may get processed before you or you get processed before an apr 2008 PD guy.

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