February 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
- EB3- China could advance to 15 November 2004
- EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 February 2006.
- EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
- EB3-India could advance to 15 August 2002.
- EB2-India and EB2-China could see No movement-3 months movement in coming bulletin. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Based on calculations, EB2-IC in most optimum case should provide green card up to May-June 2008 for this year; current demand would provide enough cases that can be allocated visas through EB2-IC annual limits and estimated spillover as per current trend. February 2012 movement will be solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake enough buffer demand for FY 2012 or beyond. Dates to retrogress in this bulletin seems not plausible.
At this time, our gut feeling is that movement can be as
big as 3 months in February 2012 visa bulletin. This could be last intake for
this fiscal year and then dates may stall until summer 2012.
Note – Predictions
are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain
of salt.
You Might Also Like :
121 comments:
CM,
Tebowing to you (remember Tim Tebow....denver....Broncos)....alright ....now here is what i think....since this calculation is on gut feeling , i think its a possibility that USCIS will move the date to Jan 01 2010.... or may be July 01 2009 and then to Jan 01 , 2010... then no movement for 1 year or may be more....main reason is because very less people started their GC process in 09 so at least one year is needed to get more demand . other minor reasons are that if they make the date to jan 01 2010, they(USCIS ) dont have to brain storm every month about demand or priority date. They dont have to guess the next date. everything will be easy for them for next few visa bulletins and USCIS officials involved will get back to their original job .Long story short i think the EB2 IC may touch the Jan1 2010 and USCIS will give the break to this Poker game for few months...
Overly Optimistic ?????
what is your thought on PD July 2009 EB2-I? when should we anticipate seeing it be current?
I agree to your point of view.
Why stop at Jan 2010? May be they can make current so they need to play the poker game at all
Dear CM, applied for 485 2nd week of Dec unlike most did on 1st Dec . Am I at a disadvantage here although my PD is early Dec eb2 I . I hear GC can be delayed as many as a few months and even might not get picked for this year . It just crazy that PD does not matter anylonger once filing 485 and is it true it will be first in and first out irrespective of PD Date being early.
They have been playing this 'poker game' or a long time and I don think they will change their process for this issue. I think they will get a good sense from the applications that they would have received and would move it based on that. I am hoping / expecting for the dates to move at least till 1st april. lets see.
My Priority Date is EB2 India March, 2009. When is the expected date that I will become current? Any chance in Feb 2012 Bulletin?
That will be like going all-in with 7-2 for Mr.O ..!!
we wish, we had a open ended striaght draw and a flush draw to call it..
So lets talk Football. When you are QB(DOS), you are used to concentrate on one thing, that is passing (conventional way of moving things to use visa numbers based on demand) but then there is a situation where you get one Tim Tebow, that is rare (you are out of demand as is DOS today), now you have tendency to rush (move dates quickly) and pass (want to use visa wisely); being unconventional you start getting out of your pocket (making aggressive movements) and start doing out of ordinary and winning games, get 7-1 stats (moving dates so aggressively that everyone is happy and more optimistic). But then comes time when you are concentrating on two things rush and pass on every play, that defense blitz (demand surge in) and in midst of avoiding sack (over use of visa), you are taken 29 yards down the field (retrogress) when your team and fans (EB2-IC) needed the touchdown to win the game.
So in all, we are in the situation where unconventional way may qualify you one win or berth to playoffs (one movement in Feb 2009) but cannot win you superbowl (January 2010 cut-off date).
That said, if we see January 2010 for next few bulletins then may be Denver will even win superbowl :)
Not sure but it could be next month or can even take one whole year. Lets see how dates will move in Feb 2012.
Well that is little unfair that GC is approved based on receipt date and not PD but again life is not fair. With your PD, difference in few weeks may not cause much difference in approval time. One-two weeks here and there.
Chances are pretty good for next VB.
Hi CM, due to 40% decrease in PERM applications submitted due to recession in FY2008 and FY2009, I'm hoping that EB2 IC PD can move for another 6 months. My PD is Apr 23, 2009 EB2I. whats ur thoughts on this?
thank you.
This is hands down the best post I have read in a long, long time. Nice CM!
Hi CM
What happened to H.R. 2012 bill. Is it removed or chances are there in January 2012 to get passed in senate?
my priority date is august 2009 EB2 india.. when do u think it'll be current? when can i expect EAD and when can i get GC?
thanx n great work CM..
My PD is feb 5th 2009 , any chances of becoming current in the next VB?
Its HR 3012 and its still alive.
I am out of the USA on advance parole for Christmas, and the February visa bulleting might show my date as current, what happens if I dont get back into the USA before my date becomes current? I lodged my I-485 using approved I-140
my priority date is august 2006 EB3 others.. when do u think it'll be current? when can i get GC?
thanx n great work CM..
holy cow.. didn't knew CM was a football geek..that was cool Tebowing phenomena..!! btw, he was my QB when i was in Florida and we won 2 national championships with him.. Go Tebow..!! He will shine and rise baby..!!!
Thanks :).. If I wasn't doing this then definitely would been blogging on football.
So far chances are 50-50. It all depends how they will take this bill when they are back in session in January. Currently it has been schedule for consideration on 23rd January 2012, I believe.
It is difficult to guess. It can anywhere from this fiscal year within few months to atleast Jan 2013. You will get EAD within 3 months from filing your application. In case you are not current this fiscal year then we are looking at Q2 FY 2013 at most.
Nothing will happen. You will be fine as long as you have valid unexpired AP. Even if your case is approved when you are outside US you can re-enter the country with your AP. You should be fine.
Whats your country of chargeability?
lol ... nothing against him but he is just not A-level but I do enjoy watching him. Game against Bills was bummer. Let's see until when can he survive.
Fellows update from attorney friend:
"They expect visa bulletin to see some neat movement for EB2-IC in February. I do not understand his definition of "neat" but it can be anywhere from 4-5 month assuming that new definition for "significant" would be 9.5 months. His firm will be filing lot of applications in January (number he thought was around 450-600). He said that attorneys are working hard this winter break, but due to holidays and vacation they do not expect to file many cases in first week of January. His presumption is that it will be similar at other firms and hence January filings will have not any binding on movement for February visa bulletin. He still believe retrogression will happen not before April-May bulletin.
EB3 category they expect at least two weeks movement."
CM - As usual word of advice; take it with grain of salt.
Keep up the good work CM :) I am nominating your post for the Pulitzer award...it was that good!
Hi CM,
My PD EB2/I 01/15/2008.
I-485 applications received at Lewisville, TX on 12/09/11. So far I have not received Receipt #; how long does it take, any idea?
Hi CM,
My PD: Feb 16, 2006 EB3/Philippines
When do you think I will be current? Will I make it just in case HR 3012 will pass the senate? Thank you. Happy new year!
CM,Can you please let me know when will March-2010 be current?
Hi CM,
I am on EB2- I , My PD date is April15, could you please tell me best and worst case when it could be current..
Even my PD is 20/4/2009 EB2-I. I think the best case is Feb bulletin. Not sure what the worst case would be.
Hi Guest,
I am sorry my PD is April 15 2011, could anyone please tell me best and worst case when it could be current..
Best case 2014 and worst case 2015.
Worst case will be 2013 not later than that.
Mid 2013 I believe
You will current in a month or two. HR 3012 will not affect you from getting GC.
Hi CM,
I am on EB3-P, my PD date is March 22, 2006, will I make it before HR3012 become a law?
Thank you CM for the response. Keep up the good work.
How do you already have AP if your date is going to be current in Feb?
CM
Thanks for all your help and support. I became current for the last visa bulletin(Jan,2012), My PD is May 2008. However the I140 approval that I have was from previous employer. The new employer only filed for LABOR and not yet the I140. My Question is should I be going with PREMIUM I140 Filing.? Please let me know.
CM, Are the PD movement and HR 3012 approval are signs of upcoming election? if so, what do you think of PD moving till the election before it retro? I suspect it may retro only after the election. Your thoughts?
hi Cm
my pd is 19th of oct 2006 eb3 row what do you think the best and worst senario is for my case ?
do you think h.r 3012 will affect me?
I would like to know when will I be current my priority date is on March 9, 2009 from EB3 Mexico. Also what are the next steps after my priority dates becomes current.
CM
Thanks for all your help and support. I became current for the last visa bulletin(Jan,2012), My PD is May 2008. However the I140 approval that I have was from previous employer. The new employer only filed for LABOR and not yet the I140. My Question is should I be going with PREMIUM I140 Filing.? Please let me know.
CM,
Thanks for your logical predictions. Kindly advise on the following.
My wife will be applying for H1 to H4 COS third week of Jan since her job will come to end on Jan 21st 2012. My PD is Feb 13 2009. In case my pd becomes current, will I be able to file I-485 for my wife while her H1 to H4 COS is pending.
Thanks in advance.
Yes, you can. There is no problem whatsoever. Your attorney should be able to assist you with that.
Good Luck,
Paddu.
CM
If H.R 3012 is passed then what will be the impact to your prediction? Still retrogess will happen to EB2 India? if not will there be a forward movement of date? if there is forward movement then what will be the prediction for 2012? if retrogess happens after passing H.R 3012 then to what date it will go back?
Will HR 3012 pass if the Irish E3 bill is attached to it? One part says remove per country cap but they are attaching a provision giving preference for a particular country. What a crap...With the passing of 3012, all schedule A (nurses from Philippines approx 40k) waiting for consular processing will have to wait for sooo many more years. And they think only IT is needed in the US, that's a lot of B S!!!
My priority date is december 20 2009 EB2 india.. when do u think it'll be current? when can i expect EAD
Thanks a million.
Hi CM,
My PD is Oct 7th 2007 and my 485 receipt date is Dec 1st..(filed lil late)...My finger printing was done on Dec 29th but my wife didnt receive her biometrics appointment yet...Shd we call ASC and schedule her appnt? Its been 30 days since we received the 485 receipt notice...wat do u advise??? Will her EAD or GC be delayed or will we be approved together? When can i expect EAD and AP ?? When can I expect GC? Thanks a lot...Your input will help me plan my travel for 2012.. Have a grt day CM.
It will move till Apr 22 2009.
Hi CM,
My priority date is April 23 in EB3 row, When do you think, I will be current. Will HR 3012 have any effect?
Thanks.
CM
Thanks for all your help and support. I became current for the last visa bulletin(Jan,2012), My PD is May 2008. However the I140 approval that I have was from previous employer. The new employer only filed for LABOR and not yet the I140. My Question is should I be going with PREMIUM I140 Filing.? Please let me know.
Yes you should and do it asap. $1225 is nothing when compared to waiting forever for the PD to be current.
Let me explain my case. My PD is June 2008. My new employer filed I140 a month ago. However, predicting that I will be current, I requested my attorney to refile for premium processing. He did and Igot my I140 approved in a week. I'm now eligible to apply for I485.
Demand Data is released. Any predictions
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Anyone else? plz advise!
Feb Bulletin released. India Jan 1 2010, China Jan 1 2010. Call the help line 202 663 1541 and it will say for Feb bulletin details
Visa Bulletin out...........One year movement EB2
2nd C 01JAN10 01JAN10 C C
Visa Bulletin For February 2012 released!
Great New EB2 I/C 01-JAN-2010.
Good Luck!
One day I do not check anythng to do with immigration and Demand Data and VB is out.
Congrats to all those who became current.
CM
"significant" would be 9.5 months.
"Neat" would be one year
Latest inglish terminology :)
it seems like :)
still you are doing good job. I am able to understand few things from your bulletin.
hey congrats to everyone who became current.. iam also current..:)
Looking forward for your Feb analysis CM! And do you think Giants r gonna beat the Falcons? :)
When will eb2 india dec 2010 be current is there a chance in next bulletin
This data is pretty absurd...demand only 258 for the entire world ! I cannot believe it...Pretty strange
CM, what do you expect next? Same unpredictability or can you make some sense of it? The terminology used in the visa bulletin is pretty interesting - "Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility."
So it looks like the possibility of stopping the movement or slowing it down is higher than retrogression. Good news or bad? I dont know...but looks like the anticipation of revised Senate version of HR3012 passing is high !
CM, If eb2 India and China become current, why would HR 3012 be necessary? Isn't this bill purpose to eliminate the backlog for high skilled workers from those countries?
CM,
Thanks for all the help in predicting this VB. I am current now.Pd feb. 8, 2006,eb3p.
Cheers!
Hi CM,
Thanks for your prediction and this wonderfull immigration resource website.. I am now current. My PD is Feb 26, 2009
CM, can PD Sep 2010 India become current in next bulletin (March 2011) ?
CM, Congratulations. Your February Prediction for EB3 ROW have proven accurate to the day. It is unbelievable but true. Thank you.
CM, I still cannot believe that EB3 ROW Other Workers become current more than 1 year (10,000 or 5,000). I can't wait anymore longer.
Give me some hope, please!
Congrats
CM,
Eagerly waiting for your analysis on FEB bulletin and what to expect in March 2012 bulletin, by the way my PD is EB2 Jan 07, 2010 and I missed the boat by 7 days in Feb bulletin...
Appreciate your comments
MK
Where are you CM?? We are missing you and your analysis
RV
CM, CM , CM & CM how are ya.... i luv the info you provide... Ok Tebowing to you again....On Friday, Feb VB was out and as per my prediction(as per in my earlier comment) Jan 01 2010 is the date , I am also current in EB2,,, such a great news ....cant explain...and you know what, its sunday and i have just finished all my butter popcorn because Tim Tebow's overtime 80 yard TD pass in OT gives him 1st playoff victory ...you agree now with CO and Broncos analogy ???????
holy cow..!!! whats happening..!!
CM, can you please throw s0me objective reasoning to this crazy madness... and let the madness continue and move it just another 5 months pls.. for the lords will bless Mr. O..!!
and Go Tebow CM.. how about that 80 yrds TD in overtime...
-- a proud Gator alumni..
Please help understand the demand data table in section :-
"Demand Data Used in the Determination of of the February 2012
Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates"
this table shows that cumulative demand for EB2, by 1/1/2012 is only mere 102.
Does that mean,
Currently USCIS has received only 102 I-485 applications and can accomodate lot more until the limit of 2700 EB2 is reached ?
What does that number "102" mean ?
It means that they are documentarily qualified to get the GC immediately (as long as there are visa numbers) and it does not mean the number of people who filed the I-485 applications
Gr8 analysis. Just bookmarked the site. My PD is Mar 2010 in EB-2I. Any predictions when can it become current?
then what does that number help conclude to ?
He is not mentioning how many visa numbers have been issued thus far, in the current fiscal year.
he is saying 120 can be issued as of 1/1/12, as 120 cases are documentarily qualified and ready for GC.
>So how does that help us identify what has been the demand or availability ?
i am sure this must be a mundane question in lot of forms, but help me comprehend the numbers. thanks a ton.
CM,
My priority date (EB3 ROW /Priority Date-02/07/2006) has become current with the February 2012 visa bulletin update. Will you please let me know what should I expect next? I am planning to go to my country in May of this year. Will the bill H.R. 3012 effect my case incase it passes the US Senate and ultimately become a law? Your Response will be greatly appreciated.
CM,
I will appreciate your response to my previous questions please.
Hello CM,
Long time reader but first time poster. My PD is 2/14/08 and my AOS app was filed just this past week. Considering the forward PD movement in recent bulletins and the number of people that must have filed for their AOS prior to my filing, am I at a severe disadvantage to receive my GC this year? What's my best and worst case scenario?
Thank You,
Lets hope that you will be current by next month or two. I am doubtful about status of HR 3012. It is suppose to be taken this month for review. So far I do not see any specific progression on the status.
Do not think tiwice, file for Premium.
I believe dates may retrogress starting April-May 2012
k.sh, you will be current around Jan 2013. If HR 3012 is approved there is good possibility it will affect you.
it may take you 4-5 years before you will be current within EB3-M category. Once you are current you will file I-485 if you are in US else will wait for interview if you are doing CP case.
yes please file in premium
With HR 3012 passed, I do expect retrogression for this FY as most of the visas are used but retrogression will not be significant.
Yes you can call ASC. On your date of FP appointment, I will take infopass and ask officer to print FP notice for their itself so that she can get it done then there. EAD will not be delayed as there are many cases that would approve w/o FP. GC cannot be approved until FBI, Name, Background & BCIS checks are completed. To initiate them they need FP.
EB3-ROW April 23 can take 3-4 months from today.
thank you for your kind words.
I am looking for Giants vs Pats Superbowl rematch. That scare is still fresh. :)
Sujatha, that is a long shot but then what Mr. O wants is only in his mind. So I will not lose hope.
Those are only people who are waiting for visa numbers. Others get approved on becoming documentarily qualified as soon adjudication is completed and IO has pulled visa number for you using CLAIMS. If you will see those numbers can at most mean number of people waiting to get approved one week before demand data is published. This is true for EB2-IC, EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P who are almost current when being adjudicated.
Uncertainity will be there until Mr. O will decide to pull the plug on the movement. With October and Novemeber applicants becoming eligible for visa numbers, we may be reaching latter half of the bell curve. If Movement will happen it will less than 6 months.
Ien. I am glad. Good Luck on approvals and your future. :)
Density of PERMs in 2010 is very high. PD movement to September 2010 seems less likely. Lets see . I am thinking atleast 3 months movement.
ika7ika7, waht is your PD with EB3-ROW Other; let me seen if I can estimate a wait time for you.
You should be current coming month.
PD: 7th July 2010. Is there chance in February or how long I have to wait???
So does this mean that their could be more applications than indicated in this demand data, but, just that they have not been processed to be included in the visa numbers? So, if I understand right, demand data indicates the number of visa applications in the pipeline that are documentarily qualified, so this does not include applicants beyond July 2007 since they have just become current and not been processed yet. Am I right?
Good possibility!
You mean that by passing H.R3012 my case will be current sooner!
please answer me .i am a little confused
You may or may not be current in March VB. You are on thin edge for the next visa bulletin.
You are absolutely right in understanding this.
My pd is june 2006 june 1st week, how many weeks or months I have to wait?
CM, my PD with EB3-ROW Other Workers is March 12 2007. I realy apprieciate your time.
Thank you soooooo much.
I would say 3 months from today.
You should be current in 12-15 months from today. Cheers.
CM, thank you very much. You make my day. You are the best.
Hi CM,
Thanks for the all answers. I really like your site and i was looking around for some questions but i couldn't see what i was looking for thats why i would like to ask now..
My PD is May 5, 2006 (ROW EB-3 ALL)...As i learn from your website it might take 2-3 more bulletin to be current.
Here is the question,
1.How long time does it take to get GC after PD current?
2.Will the bill H.R. 3012 effect my case incase it passes the US Senate and ultimately become a law?
Thank you in advance and looking forward to hearing from you soon.
Jaya
CM, what does retrogress mean...PD going backwards...what wil happen to those who become current and then the date retrogresses....?
To CM, My priority date is Dec. 2008 Mexico. When do you think will become current? Apparently 2 more years...
Post a Comment