Thursday, July 14, 2011

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012? - (Post Sep VB)


Thursday, July 14, 2011 | , , , , , ,

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?

What movement do we expect for EB2-IC in FY 2012? 

Since now we know that EB2-India and China are stuck at 15th April 2007 for this fiscal year, we can try and estimate what we can expect for this category in FY 2012.

Eb2-India and China still need 8000 more visas for EB2-IC to cross PD 15 August 2007. This is calculated plainly from the currently released visible demand data, without including 'People Who Missed the Boat" (PWMBs) during July 2007. Expected PWMB until 15 August 2007 cut-off date from September Visa bulletin cut-off date of 15 April 2007 are 8302. We firmly believe any PWMBs before July visa bulletin cut-off date of 08 March 2007 have good chance to get approved by September 30 or even in October, where USCIS usually tend to use some unused visa numbers from the last fiscal year.

So out of total PWMBs of 8,302 for EB2-IC until 15 August 2007, even if we assume that due to the economic recession and other unforeseen reasons, only 50% are eligible to pursue this, numbers still come out to be 4,151. So to sum up, without even crossing EB2-IC PD of July 2007, for next fiscal year EB2-IC has demand of 8,000 + 4,151 = 12,151.

Now we know as and when these PWMBs will become current and file for I-485 in order to become documentarily qualified, by that time we will be in Q2 or beyond for FY 2012. Based on annual limits and not considering any PWMBs, expected movement for EB2-IC is as tabulated below. This is based on no porting and no PWMBs. 

For EB2-India, movement will be very small or expect no movement for first quarter (Q1) and then in Q2 we can expect 1 week movement each month until DOS will try to intake extra inventory in Q3. EB2-China will progress much quicker than EB2-India. For EB2-China we can expect 4 weeks in Q1 and Q2 each, until DOS will allocate any extra movement to intake inventory for spillover season.



EB3-EB2 Porting and PWMBs before 15th April 2007
Above tabulated estimation can all change, especially for EB2-India, if individuals in EB3 category with PD before 15 April 2007 will start porting. We expect EB3 to EB2 porting for FY 2012  will be at same level as FY 2011. Expected numbers should not be more than 2,800. Other than these porting numbers we should also consider calculated PWMBs before 15th April 2007, which are 1,958. Again assuming that out of these only 50% are still eligible, this number comes out to be around 979. Out of these we expect 50% or more will use visa numbers from FY 2011 quota. So rollover backlog to FY 2012 will be 488.

So EB3 to EB2 Porting and PWMBs before 15 April 2007 that would be counted towards FY 2012 becomes 2,800 + 488 = 3,288. Of course, porting demand will be realized slowly and hence we can expect little but small movement for EB2- India. Movement depends on PWMB rollover and new porting demand. EB2-China should continue to move as outlined above as we expect no porting, and we expect FY 2011 rollover PWMB demand to be around 150 or less.


What will be the total demand for FY 2012 and how much spillover is required to cross 2007?
So now going back to total demand for FY 2012 as calculated above up to 15 August 2007 and adding demand for PWMBs up to cut-off at that time (4,151- 2,803 = 1,351) assuming dates around 01 June 2007), porting and rollover PWMBs and removing annual limit, (5600) total demand required to cross PD July 2007 (see large font numbers above)

8,000 +1,351 + 3,288 + 150 – 5,600 = 7,189

Total demand of 7,189 will be enough to keep DOS from worrying about taking any new inventory until April 2012. Once year will progress into early Q3, just like this year DOS may start looking into half yearly projected demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW. If at this point, annual visa limit for the EB2-IC (or any of the country) is exhausted due to above stated demand, DOS will start looking into using any available unused visa numbers. Although, DOS/USCIS are constrained to use only 30% of these numbers in first three quarters (but they made exception this year), this move would totally depend upon number of visas available.

If DOS feel there is more than 7189 unused visa numbers that they can expect based on past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements (quoted from our previous article), they will plan on taking extra inventory to make I-485 cases documentarily qualified for rest of the fiscal year Usually past trend has been around 3000 visa numbers each month for EB2-IC. 

So if expected spillover from half-yearly unused number is 10,000, they will try to intake for 18,000 or less, thus EB2-IC movement will be based on 18,000 – 7,189 = 10,811, thus crossing only 4-5 months from July 2007 at most at first trial and error. If after this movement, in case DOS would see change in demand pattern then they can try to retrogress dates or progress dates in July 2012 (Q4). Next fiscal year ,spillovers can either be used on a quarterly basis or we can expect some big movement in April 2012 and then second recalibration in July 2012.

If first trial and error would cause dates to move until PD December 2007 in early Q3 of FY2012; based on our estimation it will bring 11,664 EB2-I applications; 2,109 more EB2-C application; and  2803 new PWMBs post 01 June 2007 that were not considered above. These EB2-IC numbers comes from PERM data after applying I-140 conversion factor of 78%. After applying this, if we consider most optimistically due to economic recession or other unforeseen reason only 75% are eligible to pursue this anymore, total demand from Aug 2007 until December 2007 becomes  – (0.75 x (11664+2109)) +2803 = 11912 + 2803 = 14715.

Based on above 18,000 spillovers, 10,811 left after July 2007 would only take EB2-India and China to end of November 2007, and dates could retrogress from December 2007 in July 2012 . If we expect next year’s spillover will be same as this FY 2011 (very unlikely), and we will receive 25000 unused visa numbers, EB2-IC in FY 2012 will end up around January 2008. In reality dates can be anywhere between December 2007 to January 2008 for FY 2012.

It should be noted in above scenario I-140 to I-485 conversion is assumed 75% and PWMBs are assumed 50% eligible.

Now final question is if dates will retrogress or move forward after first huge movement in early Q3 for next fiscal year?
We are really hoping that DOS/USCIS should use quarterly spillover than half yearly spillover for next fiscal year. But Mr. Oppenheim being conservative in nature will move dates only in early Q3 around April 2012 and then recalibrate in July 2012. Dates retrogressing or moving forward will totally depend upon EB1 and EB2-ROW demand.

Do we expect retrogression in Q1 for EB2-I?
No, we do not expect retrogression for EB2-I in Q1 FY 2012. In case if that will happen, it will not be more than a month. Chances are very less.  





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228 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 228   Newer›   Newest»
Sudheer said...

Great Analysis, Hoping for GC in next year ( PD DEC 2007 I)

Appreciate your efforts CM

ABCD said...

CM, check this out. Your inputs?


http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html

Peter_m said...

The green card calculator still shows 2 years for priority date of Jan 2008 to be current. Does this calculator needs an update again?

CM said...

I had a quick glance at it. it seems like someone talked to Mr. Oppenheim through FOIA and he told them that up until now only 121000 visas are used for EB category and at least 19k is still to be used.

Only information I could not understand is if Mr. O mentioned that the information that he is sharing with him is upto July or before. If it is upto July, then he could be pro-rating/may not be pro-rating for August visa bulletin.

If he is not pro-rating then around 9k can be easily used for August movement and this will spare 10K for rest of September. Of this EB2-IC share can be upto 2.5 K.

If he is prorating and this number is already included in 121K, then EB2-IC can expect to reach July 2007 or beyond using remaining 11K.

I am not sure if this is true why Mr. O. will wait until September 2011.

CM said...

It is doing that because it does not assume 50% PWMB conversion which is very optimistic case. It still assumes 78 % conversion of PWMBs based on I-140 conversion rate.

guest888 said...

Hi CM. is it true that every beginning of fiscal year DOS usually retrogress the dates and upgrade again beginning the 3rd quarter onwards? thank you

Sreenuk said...

great analysis, thats for your efforts...

Sreenuk said...

great analysis, thanks for your efforts...

anonymous said...

Not sure if this is coincidence..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priority_date

movement of EB2 priority dates for India in the last 3 years..

last 2 years (2010 and 2009) for September bulletin, dates moved by 2 months and 1 week from august bulletin..
and for 2008 dates moved by exactly 2 months..

Can we expect the same this time too? If yes, dates should move to June 22nd, 2007..fingers crossed..

srinivas said...

Thank you...

Kuku said...

CM, thanks for the explanation! Had a couple of questions:
1) If 10K spillover is available, why would EB2IC get upto 2.5k instead of entire 10k? Wouldn't EB2IC get entire spillover per INA act? Is it because USCIS would consider only the pre-adjudicated cases?
2) I read somewhere in your post that USCIS at times tends to use few visas from previous year at the beginning of next fiscal year. If this is true, then insteading of using portion of current year's spillover for the pre-adjudicated NON - EB2 IC cases, would they use the spillover numbers next year Q1 for EB2IC?

eb2ISep said...

Thanks for the analysis...Great Job!!!
Can I expect Sep 2007 EB2 I date in Q1 of 2012?

Raj said...

CM , my date is sep 2008, do you think this date might be hit same time next year thanks !!

KS said...

Gr8 work CM as usual!!.Reading your posts regularly does give a large relief to the irritated mind.Your valuable thoughts are always welcome by everyone :);hence keep it coming.Here is my scenario,my PD is 17th march 2008 EB2 India.Yes its kinda an odd number which fits into the later part of the month.Whats your prediction on this date would I fit into the bucket at all? before the early Q3 next year?.Please let me know your valuable thoughts on this as to when would be my best chance based on the current scenario.Thanks a lot CM.Again gr8 work and God bless everyone!

Regards,
KS

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

That was true when there was no clarity in pending inventory. But from past 2 years DOS has been very efficient and we have no seen much retrogression in October. If dates for EB2-IC will move past July 2007 in September 2011 then there will be retrogression. Else no retrogression in October.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
As always gr8 analysis. However I hv a question.My PD is Jan 2008 EB2 India. As per your calculator I can expect my date to be current in 1 yr 10 months and get my GC in apprx 2 yrs 4 months. However this post suggests that Jan 2008 is likely to be current in the next year itself. I know there are lots of ifs and buts with these predictions but pls advise if I am missing something

Sanjay said...

Hi CM:

First of all, thank you for your analysis.
I have a question related too above writing:
"without even crossing EB2-IC PD of July 2007, for next fiscal year EB2-IC has demand of 5303+2874 = 8177"

I think your above statement is based on assumption that PWMB demand will all be seen from especially July 07 demand.
But there is a chance that PWMB might get the green cards in the months of JULY, AUG and might be in SEPT too.
Will that not reduce the # of PWMB count to be considered for next FY demand?

Do you think there is a chance of few thousands from this 8177 might end up getting green cards by Sept 30, 2011 which would reduce their demand for FY2012?

Peter_m said...

If you scroll down a bit, you see the answer to your question. It was already replied by CM.

It is doing that because it does not assume 50% PWMB conversion which is very optimistic case. It still assumes 78 % conversion of PWMBs based on I-140 conversion rate.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I am pretty sure it is coincidence because movement is based on number of unused visa numbers available and density of applicants in each month. Year 2007 have some good density but I still believe numbers left can be minimum around 2500-5000, which can take dates to PD 22nd June 2007.

rrrr said...

Hi CM,

Is there a way to findout how many i-140 are approved ineb2( 2008,2009,2010 &2011). wanted to know the number of people waiting? in this years. i see many post which gives us the 2007 count. tnx in advance

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

1) As I mentioned in the comment, 10K left is allocation fo EB category but not spillover. (Also 19K is visa numbers left from annually allocated for EB category) Out of these left, numbers will be used for the monthly allocation as usual for EB3 category (ROW.M-P-I-C) and any I-485 application documentarily qualified for Eb1, EB4, EB5 and EB2-ROW.

We know that monthly EB3-ROW can use 2400, M-I-C-P can use 233 each, In EB3 alone 3400 will be used each month regardless. The EB2-ROW and EB1 can easily use 2000-3000 in last month depending upon demand and documentarily qualified petitions. So atleast 6500 can go in this lat month. Other than that EB4-EB5 can use any remaining eligible. So in all EB2-IC can get around 2.5-3.5K minimum next month. This is when 10K is left for August only.

2) You are right as long as case is assigned visa number until Sept 30, 2011, USCIS can approve them in October also. In past they have done so. So some visas not many will be used in first 2-3 weeks of October but not more than that.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

If not this year then mostly late Q2 but you never know. I have no basis for DOS's strategy for next year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Very unlikely my friend. More so in 2013.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Personally I believe only PWMB current in July visa bulletin has chance to get green card this fiscal year. until 8Mar07, there were only 1175 PWMBs.

Also 8177 numbers is based on 50% PWMBs eligible to file. In reality numbers can be anywhere from 50%-80%..

If we think all 1175 PWMBs until July bulletin cut-off date will be approved this fiscal year then movement in September bulletin will be less than by that number, so everything will be offset accordingly. So everything is relative, number will end up in similar range..

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

There is some information on I-140 approval for each year from the total filed but not on segregation category wise. So in general in our calculator what we have done is used PERM approved date based on category and then approval percentage based on each year.

See - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/i-140-and-i-485-approval-rate-and.html

jay_psg said...

CM

Big question.. Comes June 2012, DOS will have to deal with the spillover visas to make sure they are not wasted. Now for that they need atleast 10-12000(?) of pre-adjudicated applications. Do you think they would open the dates in Sep VB or is there any other strategy they can use?

dk said...

CM, your thoughts on when PD of Apr'09 will get current?

Karmayogis said...

Hi CM:

This is another brain teaser for you and would probably occupy you for the next several days if not weeks :)

USCIS has published all the receipts and approval data sets (10 of them!) just now at their website. It is very interesting and sort very detailed for the first time in USCIS history.

Now I am awaiting for your 'More' accurate and crisp predictions for EB2-IC folks in the near and far future if we have one :)

Thanks
Karmayogi
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=820b4b220ea11310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1RCRD

CM said...

Thank you for posting it. Data posted right now is only for Local/Field Offices for I-485 receipts and approval. It is less helpful as of now but as more and more data is published, we can use it more. It will be interesting to see if we can get I-485 data from different service centers. But great start for such kind of information to become available to the community.

roundone said...

Based on I485 CSV, only about 16k employment based 485 were approved in 2009 and about 30k are pending from 2009. About 19k were approved in 2010 and 20k are pending. About 6k were approved in 2011 and 4k are pending. And in all, only about 43k employment based 485 were approved until April 2011.

CM said...

This is useful. Note data until March 2011 for I-485.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September. Even if we think 9K can be used for all other categories, EB2-IC can receive anywhere from 5k-10K. Even EB3-ROW can end up getting some number.

P.S. This is quick analysis. There may be some errors.

CM said...

Those are only LO data and does not include NSC/TSC approvals.

roundone said...

Please explain more, if you can.

CM said...

LO cases are the cases transferred to local /field office for peronal interview. No all AOS cases are interviewed at your hometown local office. Only few percentage where there is ambiguity and VO wants more screenig those cases will transferred to local offices for Field Interview. Most of the other cases will be approved without interview at Nebraska/Texas Service Center.

Data published as of now only gives approvals for LO (Local OFfice) Cases.

rrrr said...

Thank you

Noname said...

Data from LO and Field Offices Oct'09-Apr'10 posted
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD

eb2c said...

Dear CM:

Appreicate your quick analysis very much.
Is your 30000 SO used so far includes numbers in August VB? And it seems the last three months the pace is faster than the first half year. Any change on your estimation above?
Regards,

Noname said...

Data from LO and Field Offices Oct'09-Apr'11 posted
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCRD

Binu said...

Great work and analysis.. My PD is Oct 2008 and when can i expect the date will be reached..

CM said...

yes 30,000 includes numbers used for Aug VB.

My estimations is still anywhere from June-July 2007 and if 19K will yield more than 10K then some good movement upto one more year. It all depends on numbers left and how much new intake DOS thinks will be sufficient for next year. In any cases, I still when dates will retrogress in October, individuals with PD Dec2007-March 2008 may/may not receive gc depending upon spillover available next year. Good thing about the newly posted information USCIS suggests no much pending I-485 applications, which may be good for next year's movement.

CM said...

With 19K total visas avaialbel for last month, it makes more sense to open gates in September than later in Q2 FY 2012.

eb2c said...

CM. thank you for quick response. It's very encouraging based on your analysis.

Popeyeg said...

Hello Fellow,
Your Blogs / Analysis and comments are amazingly insightful. Even though, it may not be 100% accurate, they are quite reasonable.

Jan 2009 is my PD. EB2-India and I know I am far far far from even filing I-485, But I have question.

I know several people who had abended their process , even after I-140 got approved. They moved back to their country. What happens to those applications, does it automatically dropped out of count, as they abend their visa status ?

I am not sure if someone posted this and already answered. Just curious.

roundone said...

My PD is EB2 India April 2008. Can I expect this to become current in 2012 Q1.

Rahul said...

When you say that chances are that PD might move to March 2008 in Q3-Q4 of FY 12, do you think it would be able to clear all of the I-485 for March or will it be first week of March?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

In 2-3 years depending upon spillover we will receive each year. You will be borderline for 2 year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

2 - 3 years

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Unless anyone has filed I-140 they are not counted towards I-485 inventory used for PD cut-off date determination.

If an individual has I-140 approved and if it is never revoked due to fraud or misrepresentation, they will have their PDs tied to their Alien number even after abandoning the status. If they will plan to come back to US few years from now and their employer is ready to file for their green card or if they find new employer to start their green card process all over again, they can easily retain or port their PD resp for their future GC.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

If not ins September then Q1 2012 will only be possible if DOS want to move dates early in year to get some inventory. Else in late Q2 or early Q3.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

It will all of March my friend.

Guest said...

for PD march 2008 you are saying Q2 or Q3 2012 and for Oct 2008 you are saying 2-3 years. it means 7 months(march 2008 to oct 2008) will take atleast 2 years to move. please clarify.

Anonymous said...

Wov, this means that with a PD of 11/8/2007, I should be expecting hopefully able to file 485 in late Q2 or early Q3. And also GC chances look good. Am I correct.

Anonymous said...

I meant Q2 / Q3 of 2012 FY, and also I am EB2-I

Sreenuk said...

My PD is 10 may 2007, can i expect my greencard in Sept 2011. pls advice.

CM said...

Please read excerpt from above article below. PD March 2008 may get current to intake inventory but may end up not receiving green card next year. Spillover needed is 23000 for next year which may be possible or may not be. After that for FY 2013, October 2008 is on the verge if we assume only 18K spillover in FY 2013, Hence 2-3 years or (FY 2013- FY2014). From March 2008-October 2008, there are 18K applicants based on family size of 2.25.
_____________________________

Now final question is if dates will move beyond March 2008 or become current for next fiscal year?

We do not know that, it is all based on DOS/USCIS strategy for next few years on how to capture inventory for few more year. All we can say is anyone upto December 2007 - March 2008 has chance to receive green card for next fiscal year depending upon spillover received. Everyone from July 2007 - November 2007 can expect green card for sure. It ts too early to expect spillover for next year but can be anywhere around 12000-18000 minimum. If dates will not progress much in September 2011 visa bulletin, lets hope that EB1 and EB2-ROW approval would pickup atl east until September 30. Any backlog in there will come back and bite us for next year.

CM said...

Chances are almost 100% for you next year.

CM said...

Definitely. Unless we are smoking pot or way off. :)

Guest said...

Thanks for the quick response. really appreciate that..

Abc said...

when you say Q1 it means oct 2011 to dec 2011 or 2012 jan to march.

CM said...

Yes, Q1 means oct 2011 to dec 2011

Curious said...

Those who applied in 2007 will be getting GC in 2011-2012 and as per you calculation PD 2008 will be getting there GC in 2013 or 2014.. so it means no matter EB2 get spillover or not usual time frame will remain atleast 4 years for PD to become current.
If this is the case then why ppl are getting excited over spillover and less number of application between 2008 to 2011.

Good4GC said...

For a Dec 4th EB2 2007 PD Ind , what is the possible timeline for becoming current. Below sa w your response for Nov , will Dec and Nov tag along same time ? Thanks

Vikram said...

CM,

I value your expert opinion a lot. My PD is May 23, 2008 EB2I. Given the way DOS moves the dates (1, 8, 15, 22 of the month), I won't be able to file I-485 unless the EB2I cutoff PD moves to June 1, 2008.

Over the last few days I have seen conflicting possibilities of date movement:

1. Consular processing applicants with PD of June 2008 have got notices which means that those dates are expected to be current in a year.
2. Your GC calculator (pretty scientific and well done) says 1 year and 10 months
3. Some of your responses to fellow posters who have similar PDs seem to indicate the wait can be 2-3 years.

What should I expect?

Guest said...

My PD is March 13th 2007 (EB2I) and it will be current in August.
I missed I-485 in 2007 fiasco and will be applying now. How long it will take to get green card(approximately). Anyone is in the same boat like me?
Appreciate your response.

IN said...

Does your comment hold true for May 21 2007, EB2I ? Thanks

KN said...

Hello CM,
My PD is in August 2007. When do you think it will be current. Any chance in the next bulletin or will it go into FY 2012?
Also, do you think that the movement of dates will stop, like it did last year, for the first 6 months of the new fiscal year?

thanks in advance!

K

KS said...

Hello,

Some info I know; not sure if it would be of any help but atleast I thought it will brighten up some souls. A feb 2007 PD India got the actual GC itself a week back.They had filed during aug 2007 current scenario.

Thanks
KS

Anonymous said...

i know a guy who had April 07 priority date who got his GC last week. Withing three days of August Bulletin

Madan Mohan said...

Hello CM,

My priority date is June 8th 2007 EB-2 India. I have filed my 485 during the Aug 2007 fiasco. Later I got married. I have a question regarding my wife's 485 application. Suppose if my visa date is current during the Sep bulletin and my green card is approved before my wife files her 485, can my wife still file her 485 or should she go for CP? Please advice. I would greatly appreciate your reply.

Thanks,
Madan

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Pretty much at same time. Late Q2.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

2-3 years only for those with PD October 2008, as they are pretty much on borderline for FY 2013. You will be on borderline for next year if spillover numbers are atleast 25K. As calculator estimates, 1 year 10 month is something you can expect for sure. If you are on verge for next year, then you may expect to get current in Q3 of FY 2013 but might get green card in June-August 2013..

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Anywhere from 3-4 months for clean case.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Kind of. You should be able to make it this year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances for next bulletin is 50-50 if you are one with PD before 15 August 2007. Later than this very less chance. More likely you will need to wait until FY 2012 - Q2. VB movement may stall or progress slowly for 4-6 month due to PWMBs. It all depends where we will end up this year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yes she can. Just make sure you will file her case on 1st September and do not worry about it then. She might not need to do CP, she can file AOS few days here and there from your approval.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

My PD is EB3 India April 2008. When can I expect filing I-485?

Rao

Good4GC said...

CM,
For EB2 I, Once the dates get stalled in July , when will the big movement occur . Considering mine is Dec 07 PD , say the dates end up in Mid June 07 end of this next bulletin. Inorder to move to december it has to move like 7 months . If it could move end of second quarter 2012 ( i,e Mar 2012 ) , are we forecasting it will have a big 7 month or more movement in March or April bulletin?

Thanks
Good

Kuku said...

Hi CM,

Any news yet abt the Sept. bulletin from your friend who predicted small movement for Aug?

CM said...

Not yet my friend. I am hoping to talk to him in last week of July. I would post what he knows through his firm.

CM said...

Not for ages my friend. If possible after gaining few year experience try to port to EB2 qualified job.

CM said...

I personaaly feel above scenario would happen then dates will move every month until it reach end of July 2007 ( or 15 Aug 2007) and then stall. Once that will happen, then we should expect huge movement based on DOS calculated and expected spillover against calculated/expected inventory. I feel atleast until March 2008. After that, they may stall or retrogress cut-off dates based on actual received applications vs calculated.

anonymous said...

CM, What are the chances of 15thJune 2007 (EB2IC)getting current in the next bulletin? Thanks.

Nitin said...

"CM, What are the chances of 15thJune 2007 (EB2IC)getting current in the next bulletin? Thanks.
" i would say 90%.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Agree

Smw21cn said...

Since China will have 2803 new quota available starting in October, for an EB2-China September 25th, 07 PD. Is there any chance to get current this year or have to wait till next year

MK said...

Hello CM,

My PD is Jan 2010 EB2 I. When can I expect my EAD?
Thanks in advance.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,
What are the chances of priority date July 27 2007 to get current in September or October visa bulletin?
What do you think about the movement of dates after that, will we see a movement of dates every month after October also?

BTW you are doing a great job by providing this useful analysis.

Redbull09 said...

Hi CM dumb question. Just wanted to confirm what does the Financial Year mean. Is it Jan 2012- Dec 12 or Oct 2011 -Sept 2012 ? Please respond. Thanks.

Guest said...

Thanks CM. Appreciate your help for this community.

Sanjay Bollu said...

Fiscal Year (FY) starts from oct1 and ends on Sept30.
Calendar year (CY) is from Jan1 to Dec 31.

Guest Immigrant said...

Hi CM,
I have a PD of 7 May 2007 (EB2 I) from my previous job. I changed jobs and filed all over again (PERM, I 140) and am waiting for dates to be current to file my I 485. Although my second I 140 carries the Alien # from the previous I 140 it did not port the prior priority date. My lawyer says it is not a big deal and the USCIS cannot deny the previous PD to me. I read all there is to read and found that unless the previous employer revokes the I 140 - citing fraud and /or misrepresentation - the USCIS should allow me to file my I 485 with the prior PD. I would like to know if you agree with my lawyer and my expectations that I can file my I 485 when my prior PD becomes current, maybe in the next VB?

Guest888 said...

Hi CM. Is it true that DOS can allocate only 233 visas a month for each category? So if this is the case, in the beginning of the fiscal year 2012 we can expect a slow movement for each category until the end of the 2nd quarter and will only move by months at the beginning of the 3rd quarter of the fiscal year? Is this usually the trend of DOS in giving allocations? So this means we can always rely on spillovers of every category? Thank you

Raj said...

Hi CM

My PD is Jan 23 2008. When should I expect I-485 filing and subsequently the GC.

Thanks,
Raj

Anonymous said...

Is it possible to port thru same employer with same or change in duties? Or I have to change employer to port EB3. I have gone thru couple of forms and not clear on this process.

Anonymous said...

This stands true only for USCIS not for Financial year for other organizations...

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

When you say this year do you mean fiscal year (FY) ending on October or calender year (CY)ending in December. In either case, September 25 2007 will not make it through for this CY 2011 unless DOS want to really test the water for demand early in the year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I would guess in May-August 2014 as per current data we have.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances can be somewhere around 60-70% but quite possible. Personally I think 15th July 2007 is more plausible. Once dates will reach July 2007, cut-off date will stall for some time and then advance later in Q2 FY 2012.

Thank you for your kind words.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I think Sanjay and anonymous user answered your question well.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Your lawyer is correct. Sometimes USCIS will miss porting PD on the I-140 application. In such cases lawyer would try to capture PD with new I-485 filing. It is perfectly alright. This way you do not need to wait for amended I-140 to arrive in order to file I-485. In addition your understanding on retaining on PD is correct about I-140 can only be revoked due to fraud or misrepresentation.

Your PD become current in next VB is very high. Almost 100%.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

233 visas per month is for oversubscribed countries like India, China, Philippines and Mexico. This is monthly allocation for each oversubscribed country within each category (except EB4 and EB5). ROW has allocation of about 2400 viass per month. Dates will move slowly only when demand for each month is less than 233 else it may stall. Your understanding of slow dates movement for each category until the end of the 2nd quarter and by months at the beginning of the 3rd quarter of the fiscal year happened this year and may happen next year in case spillover available is larger than USCIS could cover in last quarter. Generally in past slows movements until Q3 and big movement in Q4 was observed. Not all categories would get spillover. Spillover flow from EB4-EB5-EB1-EB2-EB3. As long as preceding category has demand succeeding category will not receive spillover.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

By end of FY 2012 you could be current.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yes it is very much possible with same or change in duties as long as there is no other employee working in same role in same company with less than usual EB2 qualification (MS or BS+5) Good lawyer can handle such cases well in case audit is received. It is different story that such route is not advisable but there are quite such successful cases. Better route within the company will different job duties by at least 50%.

GC4EB2_when said...

CM,
EB2 I Dec 2007 is expected to become current in Q2 2012 , when can I expect green card lets say if the spillover is not as high as expected .

Thanks,
Good

G U E S T said...

I have read numerous reports that the # of perm applications have gone down significantly in 2008 and 2009 - which should translate to fewer I-485s? , Correct?

Do you still think it will take upto Aug 2014 to get to a PD of Jan 2010?

btw - thanks for all the hard work, CM!

Kamal said...

Hello CM,
My PD is in Jan 2006 in EB3. When do you think it will be current?

Thanks in advance for your answer

rrrr said...

http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7-26%20Greifeld%20Testimony.pdf

just found this website....from another immigration site..

GC4EB2_when said...

Thanks for sharing this with us rrrr. This is indeed a moving article specially coming from a CEO of a major corporation. While I greatly applaud someone of stature recognizing and supporting ammendments. I will doubt if something will truly happen since there seems to be less willingness politically

Guest Immigrant said...

Thanks a lot CM! I really appreciatre your efforts! It is amazing!

GCkiaash said...

Hi CM,

Excellent analysis, this is a great service that you are doing for friends who are in GC-limbo. I need some advice. My PD is EB2 India 19th Sept 2007 and i need to travel outside US in the month of Feb and March next year. What is the likelihood that i'll be able to file my 485 before i leave US. Also, in addition to a valid H1B visa, do i need anything else to return to US? Thanks is advance for your help.

Kkatfcrc said...

Hi CM,
Thank you very much for providing such an elaborate analysis. What are the chances of EB2-India reaching a PD of october 18, 2007 by end of calendar year 2011? When do you expect it to be current.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Mostly Eb2-I December 2007 should clear by next year. In case it does not you should be current in Q1 of 2013.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I do not want to discourage you and it wil great if this is not true but this is plain wishful thinking. There is no such published reports that talks about this. The real indicator is published reports for PERM certified for each year. And when segregating them based on PDs tells us altogether different story. Until January 2010 there are atleast 46777 PERM applications for EB2-India that are approved. You can take any factor for family size and I-140 approval factor and do the math when you can become current. In my calculation I assumed 2.25 as family size and 78% as I-140 approval rate.

All I can tell you is yes there may be some layoffs during this time and others who changed jobs and filed multiple PERMs. There may be couples who have 2 Green Card application working at time. But out of 50-100 green card application I know of, there is not even a single person who lost his job. Changing jobs was difficult at that time and everyone just stayed put and there are only 2 couples I know of who are looking into separate GC for each of them. In most cases, one partner has GC and try to stay with the company company and other tend to jump jobs to pursue like able career growth regardless of GC.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

What country does your application come under? If EB3-ROW then you can expect to be current in 3 months?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thank you for posting this. It was a great hearing and hopefully something good will come out of this.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

thank you so much for the kind words.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances are 50-50 for your PD before March but may not be impossible. Yes all you need will be valid H1B stamp.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances are very less but not impossible before CY 2011. I am expecting it to be current in late Q2 FY 2012.

GC4EB2_when said...

Thanks . I'm hoping to file atleast 485 in 2012 and get EAD. Is it surely possible atleast ead

Phxeagles said...

CM, Do you think dates will actually move in Q 1 of 2012 FY? i.e. Oct - Dec 2011...for EB 2 - I ? We were pretty optimistic a couple of weeks ago and thought that USCIS might want to build an inventory for next year and might move dates till end of 2007. Were we wrong in our assumption that they need to assess the pending and might push dates ahead and then retrogress in Oct 2011? (Too much porting they r seeing that we dont see?? or they are just not interested right now in bringing in too many new 485's ? ) Do you believe that might happen at all? Any inputs from your friend at the lawfirm about Sep bulletin? Your thoughts are most appreciated..Thanks.

Guest said...

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=12666&RedirectURL=%2fcontent%2fdefault.aspx%3fdocid%3d36396

USCIS statistics for FY2010 and FY2011, showing EB-1 receipts, approvals, denials, and RFE issuance by service center. FY2011 data is presented through July 19, 2011. AILA Doc. No. 11072860.

Found this doc on aila site which can only be accessed by aila affiliated lawyers. This might be useful projecting the sept VB moment. Does any one on this forum have access to the doc ?. May be CM?

CM said...

Looking at that data if EB1 number will convert, movement for EB2-IC for September bulletin can only be around 3000-4000 unused visa numbers. My personal believe is EB-1 approval is going to pick up starting next month in August.

Guest said...

this info is now available at immigration-law.com. here is the spanshot of that. CM need your expert analysis on the below :
http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png

CM said...

Thank you for posting it. I have summarized my quick glance at the data but will like to revisit it in detail this evening. Little busy at work. But in the meantime i will ask everyone to look at the "Estimation of September 2011" post and check what more we can get after what we already assumed for this movement upto August 2011.

So far 2011 numbers are 8712 approvals. It should be compared again last year 2010 statistics which tells you general dependent ratio for each EB1-1, EB1-2 and EB1-3. Putting that together we can arrive at total visa usage for this year. Out of which we know 12K is used.

JKROCKS said...

Hello CM..I am in EB2 category and MY PD is June 2008 ...what are the chances of this PD becoming current?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

EAD is almost certain for your case. To gauge demand for next FY 2012, we can expect dates to move until Q1 2008 in FY 2012.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Dates might not move in Q1 FY 2012 but my opinion is it will definitely move to Q1 PD 2008 in late Q2 or early Q3 to gauge some demand. There were some words that DOS may look into I-140 filings post PD July 2007 for next year's movement and then will move dates accordingly. Whatever demand that we have gauged through our PERM analysis is the most you can expect. In reality things may be underside from our calculations based on different scenario. So feeling about Q1 PD 2008 is very attainable. Only if there will be less spillover than anticipated, i.e. 15000, dates might not move until Q1 PD 2008 but it too early to suggest anything. We will revisit whole situation after September visa bulletin and new I-485 inventory is released. But for now I am very positive about dates moving to Q1 PD 2008 for FY 2012 and anyone until November 2007 to receive green card next year.

I do not believe porting is culprit over here. Numbers will be minimum. I think PWMBs and derivatives are one reason and other is EB1 demand is not less as we expected. Recent statistics tells us that.

I am talking to my friend tomorrow to see if he has any insinuation about next VB after this released EB1 statistics. I will try to summarize that by EOB tomorrow.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Not for this year and less than 40 % for next year. If you will become current next year, it may be just for sometime where you can expect EAD but may not be green card.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, when u say November 2007, do u mean including November 2007 or until November 2007. My PD is November 8th 2007, hence asking. Thank you.

Phxeagles said...

Thanks CM..your explanation n time r most appreciated..looking forward to your friends input..

Good4GC said...

CM,
Do you think PD of Dec 2007 -I , will not receive Green Cards with in 2012 .

Brijesh said...

Hi CM, I am EB2-I Priority Date 24 Jan 2008. Please suggest when will this be current? Thanks for all you r time to reply back

Kamal said...

CM,

Thanks for your reply... country : "INDIA "

Thanks in advance for your answer

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

It means 1st December 2007 in my mind.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Could be in borderline with only 18k spillover. Anything more means it will receive.

JKROCKS said...

Thank You for responding...hopefully EAD will cheer me up ;-) Usally everytime for renewal i used to go to Bahamas/Canada as for stamping..but now Bahamas is not allowing ...need to see other options..but hats of to this blog..it is very intresting that most of the folks are in same boat like me..but i am sure good days are ahead for everyone...Once again thank you...

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Anywhere from Q2 FY 2012 to Q3 FY 2012.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Kanal it can take anywhere from 12 years or more from today. I will see if you would now qualify for EB2 job and then port. That is the only way out.

Kamal said...

CM Thanks for your answer.

I am a Diploma + “AMIE“, USCIS is considering this as 3 years degree, suggest me if I am qualified for EB2.

I guess I can be eligible for Citizenship through my US born kid by then 

Thanks

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yes, with three year degree it is difficult to qualify for EB2. Do you think you can part-time or online MS?

Pdl1976 said...

hello CM, my PD is OCT 2007....will it be current in Q1 of fiscal year 2012

EB3 said...

Hi CM,
Thanks for your reply post. Can you please suggest me the online MS universities that are approved by USCIS.
.

Pdl1976 said...

sept visa bulletin is out ...no movement stays at 15 april 07 for eb2

Billu said...

September VB is out and the date is stuck at 04/15/07!

Mustafa Tapiya said...

Hi CM- based on Sept 2011 VB , what is the new prediction for 2012 EB2IC

kingcaeser said...

Hi, My priority date is 17-sep-2007 EB2. any chances of being current in the next 3/4 months? I believe I need a BTM to be current. when can the next BTM be expected. Thanks

Guest said...

can porting cause retrogression in EB2I? I was looking at thedemand data for Sept 2011, it shows 4800 prior to Jan 2008 and 4925 prior to Jan 2011 for India. What does these numbers mean. Does that mean there are 4925 applicants waiting to file I-485 from India as of Jan 2011?

CM said...

Article updated based on September bulletin movement. Please point any errors. Thanks

Narayan said...

Hi CM,

Can you please let me know how you came up with the 8,302 PWMB #?

thank you

Narayan

Rudrashekhar said...

Hello,
My priority date is Aug 17th 2007 under eb2, with all this talk about Aug 15th, I am not sure what should I expect? One year ? Two years? I was really hope full for PD being current this year for me but it does not seem like it.. with a new kid on the way I was hoping to be buy a place but did not want to do it until I got my gc.. any estimates for me?

Good man said...

Pd dec 4 2007 Ind, when will it be current in 2012? Thanks much

RP said...

Hi Rudrashekhar,
I am no expert but don't think you will have to wait for 2 yrs. You should get current in 2-3 qtrs definitely in FY12.
My PD is May 2nd 2007 EB2 and despite being so close even I will have to wait 2 qtrs or more since dates are unlikely to move in Q1.
Congrats on the baby! My humble advice is to not wait for enjoying a new house, go for it!
Don't put life on hold for GC! (Zindagi na milegi dobara!)
Best,
RP

kolkatan said...

PD april 28th, 2008 India EB-2, when can I expect myself to be current? Thanks,

venki said...

my date is same. I am not stopping anything because of this. Buying a home now, expecting a baby next year But I have to say I was disappointed on Tue when I saw the Sep bullitin.

PWMB said...

CM

I one one of those PWMB with priority date of May 7 2007. I missed filing in 2007 by 15 days and now i missed again by 20 days. when do you think i will be able to file for 485.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

No. Q3 of FY2012.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Check this recently relased SEVP approved schools. Any which offer online course should be fine.

http://www.ice.gov/doclib/sevis/pdf/ApprovedSchools.pdf

Rudrashekhar said...

Thanks RP.. hopefully your are right.. yes.. I had made a promise to myself that I would never let GC decide my life.. I guess I will stick to it :)

Rudrashekhar said...

Same here..

Anonymous said...

Excellent Update CM. I do not agree with all numbers, but my calculations still come out similar. I am looking foward to you updating the GC calculator when the pending 485 inventory comes out.

My PD is in 11/8/2007, so it seems like despite the stop at 4/15/2007 for FY 2011, I still have a 99% chance in FY 2012.

Guest said...

Guys,
Record says that EB2I PD is moving 1 year every financial year and there is a gap of 4 years all the time no matter there is a less number in waiting or more Or we are getting spillover or not...then why are we doing brain storming excercise. we all are frusterated and doing all kind of things to save our job in todays financial downturn in a Hope to get a Green Card one fine day.
In the nutshell..it will take at least 4 years for EB2I to become current by looking at previous years progression.. so someone with PD of 2011 should think about surviving in a job for next 4 years to get a green card.
September 2011 Apr 15th, 07
Sep 2010 May 8th, 06
Sep 2009 January 8th, 05

Ven said...

Don't worry, I am with you..in the same missed boat. Mine is 8th May 2007..let's hope for the best.

CMblogfan said...

Hi CM,

Any comment on this information from mitbbs from CO.

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&u=http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t1/EB23/31413419_0_3.html&ei=ilJITpXSKcrc0QGU36jMBw&sa=X&oi=translate&ct=result&resnum=3&ved=0CEwQ7gEwAg&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dmitbbs%2Beb2%2BNIU%2Bchina%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DX%26tbo%3D1%26biw%3D1024%26bih%3D581%26tbs%3Dqdr:w%26prmd%3Divnsfd

Murali said...

Hi CM,

Thanks for this great blog, really helps all of us with calculations rather than just empty predictions. My PD in EB2 India is June 2008. Can I get current at least by the end of FY 2013.

Thanks

Murali

Murali said...

I like your approach. I also almost have the same conclusion. I mean worst case eb2I moves around 9 months a year. So just use that as a factor to do a simple calculation and forget the rest

Good4GC said...

So will 18 K Spillover in Q4 2012 take EB2 IC will move PD dates to End of Dec 2007 or Jan 2008. If we see the trend for the past 3 years seems EB2 IC PD has progressed by one year increments. Based on that can we not expect EB2 I surely to atleast go up to Jan 2008 ?

Good4GC said...

Also there is a buzz on track it about possibly eb3 getting the spillover for 2012 and eb2 stalled ? I think Eb3 cannot get the spillover until eb2 backlogs cleared out .

Good4GC said...

Last month there was a senate hearing on highly skilled immigration reform where immigration voice Dr Puneet Arora and many other stalwaerts gave expert testimony on need to make legal immigration reform . Do you think they might do something to ease the backlog in 2012 or will it have to wait till CIR passage which I believe will not happen in the next 4 years at all .

PWMB said...

Ven

good to see some one like me we should keep in touch deepak_ym@yahoo.com

Sid said...

Hello CM,
Are you expecting any retrogression for EB 2 -India in the Oct visa bulletin?

Good4GC said...

CM , also have a small idea , may be on a forum like this we can try to gather momentum to push the law makers to ease the EB2 and EB3 backlog specially for India and China that are suffering . Is it possible to initiate a nationwide plan to write letters to the lawmakers about the backlog in these categories even better if representatives of eb2 and eb3 can go meet these lawmakers who are on the immigration committee . If immigration forums can all work together to push for some changes to easing backlog it will help our immi communities . I'm not too optimistic there will be immediate relief but this year senate has atleast heard from various groups on this very issue. Please share your thoughts and I will urge you to throw some plans what all of us readers can do .

Good4GC said...

I think the urgency of doing something is even more since economic climate is volatile and further delay in something happening will only make our folks vulnerable to lose what we so eagerly yearn

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Please see - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/eb2-india-china-what-to-expect-in-fy.html

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

No chances are none or less for next 3-4 months.

Please pardon my ignorance but what is BTM?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Retrogression is very unlikely but can never be discounted for start of new fiscal year due to recalibration needed by DOS. In recent years I have not seen any.

That demand of 4800 is only until 31 July 2007 because that is the latest date that ever became current for eb2 India. 4925 is the consulate demand overseas for PD afterJuly 2007. National visa center (NVC) tend to create some future demand in case it is required. For EB2-I, it is only 2-5% generally.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

If you see these calculation which we did few months ago, you will see total PWMBs until July 2007 is 10,605 and unto 15 April 2007 is 2303. Difference of two is 8302.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/p/people-who-missed-boat-pwmb-during-july.html

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I would not stop myself to buy any thing. Don't let GC bring any uncertainty to your life.

You should be current for next year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Anytime from April - July 2012.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Mostly in FY 2013.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Hopefully in 4-5months if porting demand does not increase.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thank you for having a close look at it. If you do not mind, can you please point where you do not agree to the calculations. Our goal is to get better and have better estimation with time. If there is something we do not agree on, we can try to better understand it.

Yes your PD should be current next FY.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Nice idea. I will get back to you regarding this soon.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Nope but cannot be discounted as usual. If it will happen it has to be October.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I still need to go through this.

kolkatan said...

Hi CM,
Thanks for the reply, When you said (FY 2013) did you mean October 2012 and onwards or January 2013? Please clarify.

Guest said...

Hi CM,

My PD is July 27, 2007 EB2-I. You think my PD will be current in Apr 2012 or could the wait be longer?

MVJ said...

Hi CM,

My PD is 15th April 2007 India, any chance my PD will be current in October 2011 ?

kbyogi said...

Hello CM,
First of all, thank you very much for your elaborated analysis on the issues affecting so many of us. People like me who is in this relentless waiting period find your statistical analysis soothing in one way or the other...

My (EB2 India) PD is 3rd May, 2007. I am trying to convince myself that my PD should get current before January 2012. I am exactly 19 days shy of filing for I-485.

I perused the above article. My question to you is -

Do you speculate my wait time would be beyond 4 to 5 months? If not, when do you think I should be able to file?

Thank you once again for doing such splendid job.

Kattapalli said...

I agree. Every year EB2 I/C moves about 1 year. No matter what it is!. In 2012 they may move bit more to collect more I485 then retrogress.

Roy21_9 said...

Hello CM

My PD is 5 May2007. what are my chances of current in OCT 2011.

Thanks for your response.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

The news on 12k could be very well true as we see processing times has changed drastically. We should also remind ourselves that At one point PERMs were getting approved in matter of time and that whole demand was overdue especially for EB2 RoW after their I-140 approvals. EB1 demand was also imminent due to postpone and extra scrutiny from Kazarian Memo early in the year. Now whole point is if USCIS will try to clear this demand or EB2-IC demand before September 2011. with change in processing time, most of the PWMBs may have to wait for new fiscal year as priority has shifted now to EB1 and EB2 ROW.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Definitely around July 2013.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

18K spillover should take EB2-IC to PD of November 2007 but at time of intake during Q3 2012, January 2008 can definitely become current. Any spillover like this year means January 2008 will receive GC. Trend in past 3 years is based on density of applications for each year and as n when we will progress in 2008 or beyond, EB2 applications are more and EB3 applications are almost negligible for India. IN addition this will be the first year where PWMBs will also get to file.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Spillover to EB3-India has not happened. EB3-I moved just because of reduction in demand until January 2003.How this will affect movement for next year is yet to be seen..

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I have read through that testimony but as we all know second recession or second dip is imminent, I do not see anything happening until next elections.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

In past I was contacted by some one from Immigration Voice (or was affiliated to that organization), and I believe they are working on such relief for the community that is focused on reducing backlog for employment-based category.

My personal opinion about this is that instead of focusing on subset of the community and working on agenda that benefits only portion of the population, it will be wise to go to lawmakers and talk more about general issues and big concerns that will help employment based community as whole. If we will focus on subset of a problem then we will make adversaries among ourselves, and lawmakers or congress will use the whole situation to their benefit. Most of these lawmakers/senators do not even realize that we as a employment-based category even exist. For most part, they believe that immigration is either about foreign workers, illegal immigrants or reunion of families. First step towards it would be to make them aware about our existence. I think petition that’s posted on our website that is started by one of us is a good step at least for them to see that who we are and how we are affected by this endless wait.

I believe that few agendas that we as community should work for are
a) Removal of dependents from counting towards utilization of visa numbers. This alone can reduce wait by ½ or 1/3 times, which will be huge for everyone
b) Recapture of visas wasted from previous years.
c) Crackdown of EB1-C category that is abused a lot. Personally, I feel individuals in this category should receive conditional green card with a clause that mandates employee to work for parent company for at least few years (3-5 years) in same or senior role. After working for these years, he should be eligible for permanent residence or green card. This category use 60% or more of EB1 quota. Reduction in EB1-C consumption will be helpful for whole community.

But whole point is working as community together can only bring reform otherwise in coming years most of the focus for EB category will be entrepreneurs and startups who can help economy and hire more American workers.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I was thinking more in terms of Q2-Q3 FY 2013.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I believe April-May 2012. If DOS will be worried about USCIS handling these many application it can be little early as well.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

20-30% chance. It is too early to estimate what will be movement for FY 2012. As of now there is no approval of May-June PWMB filers. So chances for such movement is less.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Jan 2012 looks like right if we will not see many porting numbers or PWMBs.

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