Demand Data and EB3-EB2 Porting Calculations

Demand Data that is used to determine cut-off dates for Employment Based Category has been released. You can find Demand Data here. Based on released demand data, visa demand for EB2-India to reach 01 January 2007 has increased from 13,150 to 13,175 from February 2011 to March 2011. This portends that EB2-India will not see any movement in March 2011 Visa Bulletin.

Demand Data for EB2-India for last 4 months

Cumulative Demand	Dec 2010	Jan 2011	Feb 2011	March 2011
01 January 2007	13,150	13,125	13,150	13,175

How to use this data to predict EB3-EB2 porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is

EB3-EB2 Porting = (Demand for current month) - (Demand for past month) + 233

	Dec 2010	Jan 2011	Feb 2011	March 2011
EB3-EB2 Porting	258	208	258	258

This suggests that on an average 260 cases are ported every month. This brings total to 3120 cases for a year as long as this trends continue.

Fallacy to above calculations
One fallacy to above method is 'Hidden Demand'. We are not sure about number of ported cases that are received and approved same month due to interfiling. This is what I call 'Hidden Demand', as it could not be accounted for in each month's released demand data. On an average it is taking 20 days to get a green card for a case which is ported and is already pre-adjudicated to use visa numbers. So these cases may not show up in demand data.

How to evaluate current trends in EB3 to EB2 porting?
There is no simple way to predict current trend in EB3 to EB2 porting. One way that I plan to estimate current trend in EB3 to EB2 porting is use of Google Analytics. With Google Analytics, I can drill down to each content on this website and see number of "unique visits" that I have received on each topic every day. This data is well plotted on Google Analytics and could be shared on this blog. This could at least help in breaking down number of individuals who are thinking or actually porting from EB3 to EB2. Results could be complete morass, but I think this can throw a little light on current trend in porting.

Currently this website has three posts on EB3 to EB2 porting.

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I plan to analyze each of these posts to predict EB3 to EB2 porting numbers. I believe individuals visiting these topics are either thinking of porting their cases or are in middle of filing new PERM under EB2 category. This data could be leading indicator for the demand that may hit in coming months. The data set that I have analyzed so far suggests on average '20' unique visitors are interested in reading one of the above topics. If we assume that 80% of these individuals are either thinking of porting their cases or actually eligible to porting, number comes around '480' individuals for a month and around '5760' cases for a year. But again this is a small data set with lot of uncertainty. I plan to collect data until second week of March and further analyze it to share results here on website.

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