Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications. Some of the assumptions were made when analyzing the PERM data. To segregate petitions from EB2 and EB3 from the whole lot, "PWD Minimum Wage" was used. Any petition with minimum wage less than $55000 were assumed EB3 and rest were assumed EB2. Please note minimum wage required for the job is different than offered wage. Please see the PWMB database for EB - India and China below. Priority date was assumed as same as Receipt date. For many cases this may differ by 2-3 days. Entire data is broken by usual visa bulletin Priority cut-off date. We plan to inculcate this data in our Prediction for EB2-IC for FY 2011. This will definitely change the whole outlook of potential movement. Depending upon how dates will progress in every bulletin, please add these data to the porting numbers. We will update our prediction calculator that will include PWMB data automatically (PWMB section will be added). EB2-IC movement beyond March 2007 does not look good in light of these added visa demand.
EB2 - India and China - Analysis for people who missed filing during July 2007
EB3 - India and China - Analysis for people who missed filing during July 2007
Graph analyzing PWMB population between each potential visa-bulletin cut-off dates (includes dependents)
Zoomed into earlier months
EB - INDIA database of individuals who missed filing during July 2007
EB - CHINA database of individuals who missed filing during July 2007
11 comments:
Amazing Analysis. Bravo!
Now are all these who missed the boat still holding their employment with the same employer?
It does not matter. I do not think even if they are not working for same employer, they have abandoned their PDs. Most of the folks from EB2-IC understands the process well and know how to recapture PD. There could be some fall outs but I have not seen many EB2s returning to their home country due to quicker turnover in processing times. To sum up, if you are pointing that there may be some abandoned cases, so yes but number expected is small.
Anonymous said...
Now are all these who missed the boat still holding their employment with the same employer?
Thank you but credit goes to gcw07 to bringing this to notice.
Anonymous said...
Amazing Analysis. Bravo!
just wondering how did you identify the PWMB from perm data,is there a flag in perm data?
Yes most of the PERM application number is in Julian Date format. Usually difference of few days here and there.
Anonymous said...
just wondering how did you identify the PWMB from perm data,is there a flag in perm data?
CM,
I just saw the list of PMWB for India. I think some of the cases are missing in the list. I have couple of friends falling under the PMWB category who filed their i-485 after their dates got current in June 2011 VB. When i checked the list to find them as per PD, interestingly i dont find their employer in the list at all. What do you think could be the reason?
that is interesting. Can you please post the employer name and I can look that up. Only reason it can be missing if they are tagged worngly as withdrawn or denied in PERM data by mistake. Other than that calculated priority dates can be off by few days here and there.
Hi,
I still so many issues with the data and I know that one of my friend's PD is 8 March 2007 and he/she is still working with the same company in San Diego for the last 5 years and I don't see that company name in the list. So as a whole there are lot of discrepancies in the data provided here.
Hi CM,
My Employer says that my PD is July 31 07. How can i find out if that is the correct date?
Please Advise. Thanks for all you analysis and effort
One interesting thing to know about the PWMB data is that average range of offered wages is between 60K and 80K. With Salaries in India rising a lot in last 4 years comparable to almost zero or declined wages in US plus the recession effect,I believe the fall out will be lot higher than expected. Many of the companies listed here are small software companies and people from such companies are most likely to have returned toIndia. I mean,It would be foolish to chase American dream at a salary of 60K in 2011 when you can make comparable salaries in India.
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