Sunday, April 17, 2011

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III


Sunday, April 17, 2011 | , , , ,



gcw07 said...

"Excellent analysis done by you. I have become a big fan of your blogs. All I understand that DoS is afraid of heavy porting EB3 India to EB2 India. Do you have any estimation for EB3 India to EB2 India porting? I have seen your dashboard and how to apply the dashboard sample to real world data?"

EB3 to EB2 Porting Poll Results

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received, at most by +/- 1%. So we feel safe to assume that sample size represents entire population of EB3 to EB2 porting applicants. We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers.


Converting EB3 to EB2 Porting Results to Real World Data
There are number of ways that we can use the dashboard data and convert it into real-world data. One way to do it is to use new PERMs received during last quarter of fiscal year 2010 and first two quarters of FY 2011 for EB2-I and convert it into real world data assuming percentage for new cases and refiled cases. There are lot of unknowns in this approach and I do not feel comfortable using this approach.

Simple calculation is just based on assumption that no quarterly spillover is used until today (except to move EB2-I for May visa bulletin) and DOS is waiting to use majority of available spillover during the last quarter excluding few numbers that will be used for May and June visa bulletin to gauge EB3 to EB2 upgrade demand. Since we know that DOS has utilized total annual limit for EB2 India due to continuous incoming EB3 to EB2 upgrade demand, we think that atleast 2800 visa numbers is used to satisfy this demand.

Assuming that these 2800 numbers are porting numbers for first 6 months (Oct-Mar) of the fiscal year 2011 (May visa bulletin released first week of April), we can assume that this will convert into 5600 porting application for full fiscal year 2011 for individuals with PD before 08 May 2006. This includes primary applicants + beneficiary applicants. We know on an average a primary applicant will use 2.5 visa numbers.

Primary applicants with PD before 08 May 2006 = 5600/2.5 = 2240


Based on poll results percentage of applicants that are porting with PD before 08 May 2006 is equal to


Percentage of PD (2002 + 2003 + 2004 + 2005) + Percentage of PD April 2006 (08 May 2006)
= 7+9+9+9+ (19 * 4/12)
= 40.33 %


Total Primary EB3 to EB2 porting applicants for the fiscal year 2011 (PD 2002-PD 2011)


40.33% of Total Primary applicants = Primary applicants with PD before 08 May 2006

40.33% of Total Primary applicants = 2240

Total Primary applicants for fiscal year 2011 = 5554



Total Primary + Dependent EB3 to EB2 porting applicants for the fiscal year 2011 (PD 2002-PD 2011)


Assuming on an average a family member will use 2.5 visa numbers,
Total Primary + Dependents applicants for fiscal year 2011 = 5554 * 2.5 = 13885



EB3 to EB2 Porting for FY 2011


Before PD 08 May 2006 = 40.33% of 13885 = 5600
Beyond 08 May 2006 and before PD 31 December 2006 = 8/12* 19 % of 13885 = 1759
Beyond 31 Dec 2006 and before PD 01 July 2007 = 7/12* 15 % of 13885 = 1215
Beyond 01 July 2007 and before PD 31 Dec 2007 = 5/12* 15 % of 13885 = 868
and so on .......



Comparing data to "EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part II" based on Google Analytics


Above calculations matches very well with our data based on Google analytics. We are convinced that the EB3 to EB2 porting numbers are reasonably high as dates will move from July 2006 to July 2007. It will at least bring more 3000 porting applications (primary + dependents) to current porting demand.


EB3 to EB2 Porting - ROW - M-P
"gcw07 said... All your blogs are well analyzed, well researched and well written. Appreciate all your blogs and the contents, which are informative and convincing the readers.I differ from your view on concerns/ conclusions.

From DoS angle, increase in upgrades (EB3 to EB2 portings) include all countries (ROW includes M & P), while many perceive the topic as 'India' specific. I know many M & P guys and gals who ported to EB2. The spillover from EB2 ROW to EB2 India & China would be less compared to last year"
I totally agree that EB3 to EB2 porting is happening for ROW-M-P as well, but numbers seems less and it would not affect spillover by large amount (unless you can point me to some trackitt data which suggests otherwise). Porting numbers could be around 500, and in case it is more than that it would be counted towards EB2-ROW demand. We are assuming at least 8000-9000 number as spillover, 500-1000 less visa numbers are so few that it can be ignored as 'noise'. I do not think that DOS is worried about EB3 to EB2 upgrades from ROW-M-P. Please see excerpts from May visa bulletin. It clearly indicates they are worried about movement of EB2 - IC due to upgrade demand. End of the day movement is based on available spillover after porting (regardless of India, China or ROW), thus numbers cannot be that high. EB2-I movement after receiving EB1 spillover indicates that EB2-ROW is not consuming any spillover and thus demand is low. For sure some spillover is expected from them. I would not worry about few hundred or thousand of EB3 ROW upgrades as of now. How this will change in coming years would be interesting to see.

While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries.

"INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences."


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17 comments:

gcw07 said...

Hi CM, Excellent analysis once again. Please accept my compliments. As per your blog, there are 8574 portings estimated from EB3 India to EB2 India to cross into July 2007. With the spillover conservatively estimated (EB1=12K, EB2ROW= 10K, EB5=7K), I would think that the cut off dates would reach beyond Feb 2007.

CM said...

@gcw07
Thank you so much for keeping us motivated and we really appreciate your compliments.

Yes what you are saying makes perfect sense ONLY if DOS would have enough time to absorb this EB3 to EB2 upgrade demand. When I say absorb, it means they can count these extra porting numbers to account for in the demand data that will be published in August for September visa bulletin.

I still think that moving dates to April 2007 should not be a problem as long as we can get similar spillover as you mentioned above. Reason being that DOS is getting extra careful and conservative and not moving dates enough due to unknown upgrade demand. This will work in benefit to EB2-IC as I mentioned in my past post; DOS not moving dates agressively would be 'Blessing in Disguise' in a way that they would not get enough time to absorb this high demand. I personally think EB2-IC dates not moving in June and July visa bulletin by a lot would rather be more advantageous to total EB2-IC movement for FY 2011.

So in all the only extra EB3 to EB2 demand that DOS will realise will be only for month of July and first week of August when September bulletin will be out. So in all it is critical to look out for dates for August visa bulletin. Cut-off date that August visa bulletin will bring is the date until which EB3 to EB2 porting demand would materialize for this fiscal year. Earlier the date lesser will be the porting demand.

Unmaterialzied porting demand due to September visa bulletin movement will consume numbers from regular EB2-IC annual limit for next fiscal year.

Anonymous said...

CM.. AS per you calculations, Can you please let us know what are the Eb3 to Eb2 porting numbers till march 15 2007?

gcw07 said...

@Anonymous

Are you not able to just add-up the numbers provided by CM?

5600 (full year porting of those whose PD is before 8th May 2006)+ 1759 (Beyond 08 May 2006 and before PD 31 December 2006)+ 50% of 1215 (Beyond 31 Dec 2006 and before PD 01 July 2007)

5600+ 1759 + 607 = 7966 upgrades are there till 03/31/2007.

Anonymous said...

Thanks CM for an excellent calculations. Do you think the Number of Portings is going to increase next year. My PD is Dec 2007 EB2 and just waiting badly to file my 485. I am not sure whether i can do it next year. Thanks

CM said...

gcw07 is right in his calculation. It is plain math. Number would be around 7966.

Anonymous said...

CM.. AS per you calculations, Can you please let us know what are the Eb3 to Eb2 porting numbers till march 15 2007?

CM said...

My personal belief is number will not increase next year but would remain at same level. Everyone (EB3s) will be looking for ways to upgrade to EB2, but again number of qualified EB2 jobs that will do green cards are limited. By end of this current year it should stabilize and remain at that level. How I see it is that porting numbers will ride at constant level +/- 1000 for next two years; with old PDs exhausted all it's possibilities and newer PDs looking to port as they will become eligible.

Eb2I- PD December 2007 could have better prospects next year depending upon cut-off date movement for EB2-IC this year.

Anonymous said...

Thanks CM for an excellent calculations. Do you think the Number of Portings is going to increase next year. My PD is Dec 2007 EB2 and just waiting badly to file my 485. I am not sure whether i can do it next year. Thanks

Pankaj said...

Hi CM,

Thanks for this excellent blog and I appreciate your time working on it and helping out the EB immigrant community. My priority date is June 2010 EB2. I am planning to go to school for MBA sometime in near future. Based on your calculations and assuming that there were substantial less filings in 2008- 2009. I reached to the conclusion that I may have a chance to file 485 sometime in 2012-2013. Please let me know, if my optimistic calculation makes rational sense.

Rajkumar said...

Hi CM,
First of all I would like to appreciate for excellent analysis. I really became fan of your blog.

Based on all calculations. In worst case scenario what will be the EB2I PD will be moving too.

Mine is November 2006 EB2I. what are the chances?

gcw07 said...

Hi CM,

what about the persons who did not apply in time, popularly called 'PWMB' - People Who Missed Boat? Do they need to be accounted in our calculations? Even attornies differ on this opinion? My obeservation is that DoS and USCIS are more concerned about the applications on hand than PWMB. Their announcement of cut off date is based on 'qualified applications'.

Please advise or confirm my understanding.

gcw07

CM said...

@Pankaj Lot of our calculation post July 2007 is based on PERM data and assumption of 50:50 distribution among EB3 and EB2. This may not be true when it comes to Indian applicants, ratio could be higher toward EB2 application but still we do not have any concrete conclusions.

If you have EB2-I PD of June 2010, most optimistic assumption could be 2013-2014. Reason being EB3 to EB2 porting is rising and these days I have started seeing EB3-ROW also getting involved into this process. With everyone posting their great experience with porting on forums, awareness about EB3 to EB2 porting is 10 folds than it was 6-8 months back. So chances for applicants post 2008 are getting worse day by day.

If I were you (again based on my personal opinion), I would go for my MBA or job change or anything that would help your career burgeon and blossom. The whole idea about coming to US was to learn, study and have a better career. We should move on with our life and other things will fall in place as it will come.

My personal opinion to anyone would be to get a job that will do green card. File in EB2 or EB3, work for company until I-140 is approved and thus your PD is tied to your Alien number for good; and then continue with employer as long as it is mutually beneficial else make a move if its makes sense. Do not restrict one self. You always have PD attached to your A number. Rules with porting will never change as it is constitutional for everyone to upgrade and make their life better. Do not forget, n number of times that you will file a Green Card means n number of times USCIS will get paid. So porting will always be there.

CM said...

@Rajkumar I still think worst-case is February 2007 and realistic is April 2007. But things could change with porting numbers, unusual high EB2-ROW and EB5 demand. We are just assuming some numbers based on available data.

PD November 2006 still has good chance. Almost 100 %.

Thank you for supporting our blog.

CM said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
CM said...

@gcw07 As always a great point. Yes there were many folks who missed the boat during July 2007 fiasco. Most significantly there were three types who missed the boat : a) whose PERM was still pending or was currently audited or b) those who were single at that time and thought that PD would be current going forward or would become current soon after retrogression, and decided to postpone their filing until after marriage. or c) those whose applications were rejected due to inappropriate fees at filing (if you will remember those cases).

We can assume these were 5-10% of the whole population (including dependents). Assuming demand is 13,500 for PD to cross December 2008, the number would come out to be 1350. But again, if you will see I-485 inventory from January 2011 that is used in our calculation, it shows 14710 (this number also tells you about porting from October to January) pending cases before December 2006 and when these numbers are compared to current demand data, there are 13,300 pending cases before December 2006. So there is always some error in porting assumptions, inventory and demand data numbers used to calculate spillover that we can neglect these numbers for now.

In calculating cut-off date movement, DOS would only see current demand. As and when dates will move each month these new ‘PWMB’ will be added to the new monthly demand. We should not worry about PWMB for now as I believe most of this population would have PD between March-July 2007. Again this is based on assumption that majority of these PWMBs is due to pending PERMs.

Since you are always thinking about this, I would like to share a thought that came to mind other day. What forced Mr. Charlie Oppenheim to go back to USCIS and ask for exact EB-1 demand and minimum number of visa available for spillover so early in the fiscal year 2011? Was there a chance that EB2-I would retrogress due to porting and he thought it would be prudent to check with USCIS on exact EB-1 demand based on historical spillover visa availability before making such retrogression . I am not sure how detailed visa demand is shared among USCIS and DOS on categories that are usually current.

CM said...

@gcw07 Hi gcw07 .. can you contact me at usnonimmigrants@gmail.com . I would like to take your opinion on something. Thanks.

CM said...

@gcw07 As always a great point. Yes there were many folks who missed the boat during July 2007 fiasco. Most significantly there were three types who missed the boat : a) whose PERM was still pending or was currently audited or b) those who were single at that time and thought that PD would be current going forward or would become current soon after retrogression, and decided to postpone their filing until after marriage. or c) those whose applications were rejected due to inappropriate fees at filing (if you will remember those cases).

We can assume these were 5-10% of the whole population (including dependents). Assuming demand is 13,500 for PD to cross December 2008, the number would come out to be 1350. But again, if you will see I-485 inventory from January 2011 that is used in our calculation, it shows 14710 (this number also tells you about porting from October to January) pending cases before December 2006 and when these numbers are compared to current demand data, there are 13,300 pending cases before December 2006. So there is always some error in porting assumptions, inventory and demand data numbers used to calculate spillover that we can neglect these numbers for now.

In calculating cut-off date movement, DOS would only see current demand. As and when dates will move each month these new ‘PWMB’ will be added to the new monthly demand. We should not worry about PWMB for now as I believe most of this population would have PD between March-July 2007. Again this is based on assumption that majority of these PWMBs is due to pending PERMs.

Since you are always thinking about this, I would like to share a thought that came to mind other day. What forced Mr. Charlie Oppenheim to go back to USCIS and ask for exact EB-1 demand and minimum number of visa available for spillover so early in the fiscal year 2011? Was there a chance that EB2-I would retrogress due to porting and he thought it would be prudent to check with USCIS on exact EB-1 demand based on historical spillover visa availability before making such retrogression . I am not sure how detailed visa demand is shared among USCIS and DOS on categories that are usually current.

Rajkumar said...

Hi CM,
First of all I would like to appreciate for excellent analysis. I really became fan of your blog.

Based on all calculations. In worst case scenario what will be the EB2I PD will be moving too.

Mine is November 2006 EB2I. what are the chances?

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