gcw07 said...EB3 to EB2 Porting Poll Results"Excellent analysis done by you. I have become a big fan of your blogs. All I understand that DoS is afraid of heavy porting EB3 India to EB2 India. Do you have any estimation for EB3 India to EB2 India porting? I have seen your dashboard and how to apply the dashboard sample to real world data?"
We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received, at most by +/- 1%. So we feel safe to assume that sample size represents entire population of EB3 to EB2 porting applicants. We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers.
Converting EB3 to EB2 Porting Results to Real World Data
There are number of ways that we can use the dashboard data and convert it into real-world data. One way to do it is to use new PERMs received during last quarter of fiscal year 2010 and first two quarters of FY 2011 for EB2-I and convert it into real world data assuming percentage for new cases and refiled cases. There are lot of unknowns in this approach and I do not feel comfortable using this approach.
Simple calculation is just based on assumption that no quarterly spillover is used until today (except to move EB2-I for May visa bulletin) and DOS is waiting to use majority of available spillover during the last quarter excluding few numbers that will be used for May and June visa bulletin to gauge EB3 to EB2 upgrade demand. Since we know that DOS has utilized total annual limit for EB2 India due to continuous incoming EB3 to EB2 upgrade demand, we think that atleast 2800 visa numbers is used to satisfy this demand.
Assuming that these 2800 numbers are porting numbers for first 6 months (Oct-Mar) of the fiscal year 2011 (May visa bulletin released first week of April), we can assume that this will convert into 5600 porting application for full fiscal year 2011 for individuals with PD before 08 May 2006. This includes primary applicants + beneficiary applicants. We know on an average a primary applicant will use 2.5 visa numbers.
Assuming that these 2800 numbers are porting numbers for first 6 months (Oct-Mar) of the fiscal year 2011 (May visa bulletin released first week of April), we can assume that this will convert into 5600 porting application for full fiscal year 2011 for individuals with PD before 08 May 2006. This includes primary applicants + beneficiary applicants. We know on an average a primary applicant will use 2.5 visa numbers.
Primary applicants with PD before 08 May 2006 = 5600/2.5 = 2240
Based on poll results percentage of applicants that are porting with PD before 08 May 2006 is equal to
Percentage of PD (2002 + 2003 + 2004 + 2005) + Percentage of PD April 2006 (08 May 2006)
= 7+9+9+9+ (19 * 4/12)
= 40.33 %
Total Primary EB3 to EB2 porting applicants for the fiscal year 2011 (PD 2002-PD 2011)
40.33% of Total Primary applicants = Primary applicants with PD before 08 May 2006
40.33% of Total Primary applicants = 2240
Total Primary applicants for fiscal year 2011 = 5554
Total Primary + Dependent EB3 to EB2 porting applicants for the fiscal year 2011 (PD 2002-PD 2011)
Assuming on an average a family member will use 2.5 visa numbers,
Total Primary + Dependents applicants for fiscal year 2011 = 5554 * 2.5 = 13885
EB3 to EB2 Porting for FY 2011
Before PD 08 May 2006 = 40.33% of 13885 = 5600
Beyond 08 May 2006 and before PD 31 December 2006 = 8/12* 19 % of 13885 = 1759
Beyond 31 Dec 2006 and before PD 01 July 2007 = 7/12* 15 % of 13885 = 1215
Beyond 01 July 2007 and before PD 31 Dec 2007 = 5/12* 15 % of 13885 = 868
and so on .......
Comparing data to "EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part II" based on Google Analytics
Above calculations matches very well with our data based on Google analytics. We are convinced that the EB3 to EB2 porting numbers are reasonably high as dates will move from July 2006 to July 2007. It will at least bring more 3000 porting applications (primary + dependents) to current porting demand.
EB3 to EB2 Porting - ROW - M-P"gcw07 said... All your blogs are well analyzed, well researched and well written. Appreciate all your blogs and the contents, which are informative and convincing the readers.I differ from your view on concerns/ conclusions.
From DoS angle, increase in upgrades (EB3 to EB2 portings) include all countries (ROW includes M & P), while many perceive the topic as 'India' specific. I know many M & P guys and gals who ported to EB2. The spillover from EB2 ROW to EB2 India & China would be less compared to last year"
I totally agree that EB3 to EB2 porting is happening for ROW-M-P as well, but numbers seems less and it would not affect spillover by large amount (unless you can point me to some trackitt data which suggests otherwise). Porting numbers could be around 500, and in case it is more than that it would be counted towards EB2-ROW demand. We are assuming at least 8000-9000 number as spillover, 500-1000 less visa numbers are so few that it can be ignored as 'noise'. I do not think that DOS is worried about EB3 to EB2 upgrades from ROW-M-P. Please see excerpts from May visa bulletin. It clearly indicates they are worried about movement of EB2 - IC due to upgrade demand. End of the day movement is based on available spillover after porting (regardless of India, China or ROW), thus numbers cannot be that high. EB2-I movement after receiving EB1 spillover indicates that EB2-ROW is not consuming any spillover and thus demand is low. For sure some spillover is expected from them. I would not worry about few hundred or thousand of EB3 ROW upgrades as of now. How this will change in coming years would be interesting to see.
While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries.
"INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences."
