Posted On Monday, August 8, 2011 by CM
Demand Data that will be used to estimate cut-off dates for September 2011 Vssa Bulletin was released today. Please see cumulative difference in Demand Data for August and September 2011 visa bulletin below. Please note that EB3-P demand data for September visa bulletin data is no different than June 2011 Demand Data.
Based on the difference here we can expect following movement for the last visa bulletin for the current fiscal year.
- EB3 category for ROW/M/P should
reach anywhere from 22 Nov 2005 - 08 Dec 2005. Earlier statement made
about EB3-P trailing EB3-ROW may not come true for next few months as DOS has not updated
numbers for EB3-P since June 2011 Demand data. This suggests that for some more
time EB3-P will move with EB3-ROW-M.
- EB2 category demand is
exactly that would be required to clear backlog until July 2007 fiasco.
8000 more visa numbers will take EB2-IC cut-off date to 15 August 2007. We
will still like to stick to our estimate of 15 June 2007 (+/- 1 week). Spillover used so far without annual limit for EB2-IC this year is 25,325.
- For EB2- IC demand data show
CP cases post 2007. Numbers are only few hundred to account for. Do not
know if it is still worthwhile to make major movement and overwhelm USCIS
for PD beyond July 2007 unless strategy is to get some inventory for next
year. This will be done most probably next fiscal year depending upon
where dates will end up for this visa bulletin.
- EB3 -I demand reduced by 6400
-733 (visas used for movement for the Aug) ~ 5675. EB3-I cut-off date can
be anywhere from 8 June 2002 - 15 June 2002.
- EB3-China can reach anywhere
from 22 July 2004 – 01 Aug 2004
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Not sure why you are saying:
"EB3-P demand data for September visa bulletin data is no different than June 2011 Demand Data."
It has reduced by 1,375 (17,775 in June to 16,400 in September).
I agree that given EB3-P demand for 2006 PD (12,575), it must retrogress away from EB3-ROW next year.
It is a different question if they decide to not do that in the interest of not overwhelming themselves with apps. I am not sure if the later move would be by the letter (if not downright illegal).
Any thoughts, CM?
~Kaush
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf
Now we are expecting your analysis of the Sep VB.
Do you need to adjust the GC calculator to reflect the new cut off date?
Finally when do you think Sep 17 2007 EB2C can become current based on Sep VB?
Thank you in advance.
My PD is Sept 26th 2007, under EB2 category. Based on the analysis, when do you think PD to becomes current
A)How not to get carried away from early announcement on extra visa numbers available from EB1, as at the end of the year this demand can catch up. B) DOS will start early spillover season based on quarterly projections and then recaliberate based on increase in demand. C) NVC issues visa bill to pay fees but there is not guarantee that demand will be realized anytime soon. D) In spillover season if DOS will start decelerating the significant movement it is an indication of less movement in next visa bulletins.
All these points will make us better going forward but as of now we should just take break and revisit this in a day or two to understand outlook for FY 2012. God Bless!!!
This is truly disappointing for EB2 I and not sure if I can have any hopes up for 2012 fiscal.
PD EB2 I Dec 2007 ; Will it ever realize ? Thanks CM for the work .
You are doing a great job!! One quick question, I have an approved EB2 NIW petition, but since I am from India, it will take a while for my 31st Dec 2008 date to become current. Can I apply in EB1A? if my EB1A petition gets rejected, will it also affect my approved EB2NIW petition?
Thanks a lot,
SS
Im EB3-P and im scheduled for interview this ,month of august. I have known that job offer letter is needed during interview. I still lack that document because my employer ceases to communicate with me. ive tried all means to coordinate with the agency that im affiliated but i received no reply. do u think it is a good decision for me to reschedule my interview until such time that i had the needed document? if i pursue the interview im afraid that i will not be issued by the visa. my agency has abandoned me, i guess. anyone coulgd suggest any agency or employer who will take me and provide me with job offer? i need your help.
thanks