Based on the difference here we can expect following movement for the last visa bulletin for the current fiscal year.
- EB3 category for ROW/M/P should reach anywhere from 22 Nov 2005 - 08 Dec 2005. Earlier statement made about EB3-P trailing EB3-ROW may not come true for next few months as DOS has not updated numbers for EB3-P since June 2011 Demand data. This suggests that for some more time EB3-P will move with EB3-ROW-M.
- EB2 category demand is exactly that would be required to clear backlog until July 2007 fiasco. 8000 more visa numbers will take EB2-IC cut-off date to 15 August 2007. We will still like to stick to our estimate of 15 June 2007 (+/- 1 week). Spillover used so far without annual limit for EB2-IC this year is 25,325.
- For EB2- IC demand data show CP cases post 2007. Numbers are only few hundred to account for. Do not know if it is still worthwhile to make major movement and overwhelm USCIS for PD beyond July 2007 unless strategy is to get some inventory for next year. This will be done most probably next fiscal year depending upon where dates will end up for this visa bulletin.
- EB3 -I demand reduced by 6400 -733 (visas used for movement for the Aug) ~ 5675. EB3-I cut-off date can be anywhere from 8 June 2002 - 15 June 2002.
- EB3-China can reach anywhere from 22 July 2004 – 01 Aug 2004
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44 comments:
How come EB3 China only reduced 75 comparing last demand data? I doubt they used all the 2503/per year visa for China EB3 again for this fiscal year. right?
Great work CM like always. thanks very much, PK
CM,
Not sure why you are saying:
"EB3-P demand data for September visa bulletin data is no different than June 2011 Demand Data."
It has reduced by 1,375 (17,775 in June to 16,400 in September).
I agree that given EB3-P demand for 2006 PD (12,575), it must retrogress away from EB3-ROW next year.
It is just matter of time when VB wil be received. Good Luck to all.
so in theory, If they clear the backlog, they are supposed to make EB2-IC current, no?
It is a different question if they decide to not do that in the interest of not overwhelming themselves with apps. I am not sure if the later move would be by the letter (if not downright illegal).
Any thoughts, CM?
~Kaush
When will Sep VB out..today or t'row? This month everyone is so quite..not sure, if everyone lost hopes??!
Wow no movement for EB2IC
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf
1 weeks movement for EB3 IC :(
vb is OUT no change to eb2-i 15-apr-07
5 week movement in EB3 I can't be because of porting, can it? This just doesn't make any sense
very bad movement for eb2..
I guess I just don't understand how these agencies work out the dates. :(
Reason could be reduction in demand by 725.
i think all guessing works are the same
Wow. Now, the dates will stall for next 5 months or we gonna see Retrogession??.
Surprising to see EB3I moving to 5 weeks and EB2 no movement.
Now question is if Cut-off dates for EB2-IC will cross 2007 in FY 2012? But positive side is that DOS/USCIS wants to clear EB1 and EB2-ROW backlog this fiscal year which means we can expect atleast decent spillover next year. If porting and PWMBs are not huge in numbers until April 2007 then we can expect very small but slow movement for EB2-IC in FY 2012. (2 months for 1 week movement).
Dear CM:
Now we are expecting your analysis of the Sep VB.
Do you need to adjust the GC calculator to reflect the new cut off date?
Finally when do you think Sep 17 2007 EB2C can become current based on Sep VB?
Thank you in advance.
Sept Visa Bulletin released - No EB2I movement :(
EB2 is still 15APR07 for Sept 2011 bulletin
Wow..didn't expect no movement!! For Eb 2 India
Hello,
My PD is Sept 26th 2007, under EB2 category. Based on the analysis, when do you think PD to becomes current
September bulletin is out..... no change for EB2IC
I would request everyone to take a day or two break from this cut off date estimation and number crunching. This has been long fiscal year with lots of roller coaster ride, hype and emotions. We have learned lot from this year.
A)How not to get carried away from early announcement on extra visa numbers available from EB1, as at the end of the year this demand can catch up. B) DOS will start early spillover season based on quarterly projections and then recaliberate based on increase in demand. C) NVC issues visa bill to pay fees but there is not guarantee that demand will be realized anytime soon. D) In spillover season if DOS will start decelerating the significant movement it is an indication of less movement in next visa bulletins.
All these points will make us better going forward but as of now we should just take break and revisit this in a day or two to understand outlook for FY 2012. God Bless!!!
Hi CM,
This is truly disappointing for EB2 I and not sure if I can have any hopes up for 2012 fiscal.
PD EB2 I Dec 2007 ; Will it ever realize ? Thanks CM for the work .
for eb3-p still a goodnews at least it moved.now that the next visa bulletin will be the start for FY2012 and given the monthly determination data what is your prediction for eb3 phil. will it retrogress or will it stay at nov.2005
Hi CM,
You are doing a great job!! One quick question, I have an approved EB2 NIW petition, but since I am from India, it will take a while for my 31st Dec 2008 date to become current. Can I apply in EB1A? if my EB1A petition gets rejected, will it also affect my approved EB2NIW petition?
Thanks a lot,
SS
No it will not. I would rather encourage you to do so and apply in EB1-A on you own. You can have different petition pending at a same time in different category with USCIS. Worst case it will be rejected. Good Luck.
Thank you so much CM!!
You mentioned DOST will start early spillover , does that mean dates keep flowing gradually even before May 2012? I thought dates are now stuck till May 2012.. pls correct if i am wrong
hi CM.
Im EB3-P and im scheduled for interview this ,month of august. I have known that job offer letter is needed during interview. I still lack that document because my employer ceases to communicate with me. ive tried all means to coordinate with the agency that im affiliated but i received no reply. do u think it is a good decision for me to reschedule my interview until such time that i had the needed document? if i pursue the interview im afraid that i will not be issued by the visa. my agency has abandoned me, i guess. anyone coulgd suggest any agency or employer who will take me and provide me with job offer? i need your help.
thanks
My PD is Sept 26th 2007, EB2 category, what is the prediction for my PD to become current?
I think if everthing remains same- for EB2 I- it will be approx. 5 yrs from PD date to file for GC and few months to get the actual GC. We can do all these number crunching, but I think this is the fact!
Demand data shown does not show hidden demand that is approved at CP during a month and never makes to monthly demand data. Since CP demand for china is high net difference in visible demand looks less. But be rest assured end of threat 2503 visas are used annually.
Sorry my bad. You are right. That was error on our part.
If there is no backlog then based on past trend they can progress PDs to intake new demand. There is no legal binding to make it current because they know there is demand in thousands who are still waiting to apply. But when it comes to use spillover if there are no documentarily qualified individuals in a category then they progress that category by enough to intake enough applications to build an inventory and in the meantime use the spillover for the next qualified eb category.
Retrogression is less likely for EB2 but cannot be discounted for sure.
We will update gc calculator soon. Unfortunately my friend you have to wait until Q3 2012. Please see http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/eb2-india-china-what-to-expect-in-fy.html
Q3 FY 2012 unless Dos decides to do quarterly spillover . Very unlikely though.
You may just make it for FY 2012 for EAD/AP. Again this is too early to predict for next year we will observe the movement for q1 and would know more.
I have not looked at number again but I would expect it to stay there. But retrogression cannot be discounted. 1350 until January 2006 are lot and can take away whole half year's allocation.
It can be as early as end of March 2012 if we will head towards reasonable estimated annual spillover of 18k.
If you do not have employment verification letter , rescheduling interviewing is a good option. I doubt without letter you will receive your visa.
Please see - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/eb2-india-china-what-to-expect-in-fy.html
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