Visa Bulletin - September 2011

September 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the last Visa Bulletin for the current FY2011 fiscal year was released yesterday. The major disappointment for the September visa bulletin was the lack of any movement in the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, which have moved significantly over the past few months. Surge in EB1 and EB2-ROW demand for the last quarter was the main reason for no movement in this category. If porting numbers and PWMBs are not huge, we expect no or slow movement in this category starting October 2011 for FY 2012. Please see table below on to estimate how slow movement can be. EB2-China will progress much quicker than EB2-India.

 EB3 India saw major movement of 5 weeks due to reduction in the demand data by 725 compared to August visa bulletin demand data. Movement was based on 588 (for June) + 168 visa numbers (from 01 July 2002 - 08 July 2002). Movement due to reduction in demand data upto PD 1 January 2003, caused due to porting is not an appropriate way of progressing dates for EB3-India . In reality, reduction in demand could be across the board for PD 01 June 2002 - 31 December 2002. If this is true, then we fear that EB3-India may not see any movement for Q1 FY 2012. Though it is unclear now but stall or little retrogression for EB3-India in Q1 cannot be discounted. We will need to observe VB movement closely for this category in FY 2012.

EB3-ROW-M-P will continue to move slowly but steadily for next visa bulletin. We will work on new article for What to expect for EB3-ROW-M-P in FY 2012.

EB3-China will continue to move slowly for FY 2012 due to high CP demand.

Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the September 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains unchanged across the board: EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India are unchanged at April 15, 2007.
• EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to November 22 , 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by only one (1) week to July 15, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by five (5) weeks to July 8, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China and at June 1, 2002 for India.  It moves forward by three (3) months to August 1, 2005 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the September 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 remains unchanged (again) for ROW, China and India at May 1, 2004.   It moves forward by one (1) week to March 15, 1993 for Mexico.  It also moves forward by 6.5 months to November 1, 2006 for for Philippines.
• FB2A moves forward by over four (4) months to December 1, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by less than four (4) months to September 22, 2008.
• FB2B ROW, China and India remains unchanged at July 1, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by one (1) month to November 1, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by over (3) months to March 22, 2001.

We continue to see the FB2A category move forward, after the significant retrogression over the past several months – this month by four weeks.   Unfortunately, due to strong demand, FB1 category remains unchanged, for a fourth month in a row, after it retrogressed by 8 months during the April 2011 Visa Bulletin.  This is due to heavy demand in the FB1 category which is expected to continue and further lack of movement (or backward movement) in FB1 is possible.
 

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