Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications. Some of the assumptions were made when analyzing the PERM data. To segregate petitions from EB2 and EB3 from the whole lot, "PWD Minimum Wage" was used. Any petition with minimum wage less than $55000 were assumed EB3 and rest were assumed EB2. Please note minimum wage required for the job is different than offered wage. Please see the PWMB database for EB - India and China below. Priority date was assumed as same as Receipt date. For many cases this may differ by 2-3 days. Entire data is broken by usual visa bulletin Priority cut-ff date. We plan to inculcate this data in our Prediction for EB2-IC for FY 2011. This will definitely change the whole outlook of potential movement. Depending upon how dates will progress in every bulletin, please add these data to the porting numbers. We will update our prediction calculator that will include PWMB data automatically (PWMB section will be added). EB2-IC movement beyond March 2007 does not look good in light of these added visa demand.
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11 comments:
Hi CM! Does this mean longer backlog for EB2 category? Will this affect the EB3 category in the long run? Thank you.
Hi! Do you have any estimate how many are in the PWMB category? Thanks!
@Anonymous Reply to "Hi! Do you have any estimate how many are in the PWMB category? Thanks!"
Click the link which says "complete analysis" and you can find the numbers of people.
Approx
EB2-IC - 10,605
EB3-IC - 4,370
If you will check analysis number of individuals waitting based on PD is listed.
With release of new FY 2011 Q2 PERM data, we will be updating our EB2-IC Prediction for FY 2011 and Green Card Calculator to include PWMB - IC, PWMB-ROW, PWMB-P, PWMB-C and PERM data post July 2007 based on PDs using minimum wages segregation assumption (EB2 and EB3). In light of new posted PERM data, EB2-ROW demand for FY 2011 would change. Considering all of the above wait time and assumed PD movement for FY 2011. We also intend to post EB3 Prediction for FY 2011. This all will be up in month of May. Good Luck adn God Bless.
Hi,
As mentioned in an earlier comment, you are doing a wonderful job of analysis which provides realistic expectations for people like me who are waiting for years.
I would like to seek a clarification on your assumption:
"minimum wage less than $55000 were assumed EB3 and rest were assumed EB2".
Doesn't the minimum wage for a job classification mentioned in PERM application vary by state and / or ZIP? I am one of those PWMB souls and the wage quoted is less than $55,000 but when my I-140 was approved, it was classified as EB-2 (maybe based on my higher degrees and number of years experience).
I just wanted to enquire how it works.
Thank you for all your efforts and details.
TR
This means dates would hover around EB2-IC PD 2007 for next fiscal year as well. It also means when dates would move into April-July 2007, it will be stagnant for some time. Even if dates will progress beyond July 2007 for some time, DOS would have to retrogress EB2-IC due to this new demand.
For Eb3 category this will also impact when dates will reach PD 2007. If you are talking in terms of EB2-IC becoming current in long term and spillover trickling down to EB3, then I do not expect EB2-IC to become current ever (may be for sometime if USCIS/DOS want to get in new application but I do not think DOS will take this route.)
Anonymous said...
Hi CM! Does this mean longer backlog for EB2 category? Will this affect the EB3 category in the long run? Thank you.
@TR
You are right that minimum wages depends on job requirement and may differ from state to state but there is no simple way to separate the data. This was one of our assumptions. Though there is some error to this assumption, but this should give us rough idea about fair distribution and we thought would be a good starting point.For example wages offered at universities and higher education institutes are lower but job requirements still qualifies you to EB2 category. All these errors in our assumptions for considering EB3s with higher minimum salary into our EB2 criteria and not considering EB2s from higher education institutes due to lower salary will offset each other. I think in my experience this is the closest assumption I can make to segregate this data.
Hi CM! Does this mean longer backlog for EB2 category? Will this affect the EB3 category in the long run? Thank you.
@Anonymous Reply to "Hi! Do you have any estimate how many are in the PWMB category? Thanks!"
Click the link which says "complete analysis" and you can find the numbers of people.
Approx
EB2-IC - 10,605
EB3-IC - 4,370
If you will check analysis number of individuals waitting based on PD is listed.
Hi CM, I appreciate your efforts in updating the data and even if EB2 India retrogresses, to which date it might retrogress???
If it will retrogress, it will only retrogress until July 2007 (only if it will reach beyond July 2007 in Sep Bulletin).
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