As per recent statement by Mr. Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, it appears that India EB2 cutoff dates will advance, perhaps substantially, in May. This means that China EB2 cutoff dates will also advance with them.Mr. Oppenheim said “[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”
Statement in red could be read in two ways
a) This means bare minimum 12000 will be available for entire fiscal year based on current indication or trend.
OR
b) This means 12000 visa numbers are available from EB1 right now and we can expect 24,000 unused visa numbers for rest of the year.
OR
b) This means 12000 visa numbers are available from EB1 right now and we can expect 24,000 unused visa numbers for rest of the year.
On a conservative side, I would think at least 12000 unused EB1 visa numbers will be available for spillover for the entire fiscal year. Apart from this we could also expect spillover from unused EB4, EB5 and EB2-ROW-P-M category later in the last quarter.
But contradictory to a) is the statement published on the other website which suggests "The Department of State announced that the Indian EB2 category is expected to advance one week in the May Visa Bulletin. The demand for EB1visa numbers has decreased by 50 percent this fiscal year. Last year from October 2009 to February 2010, 22,000 EB1 numbers were used. During the same period this year, only 10,000 to 11,000 have been used. EB1 will be current worldwide all fiscal year. This will free up an estimated 12,000 visa numbers to fall down from EB1 to EB2 this year."
Please ignore the statement on movement by only one week, which seems little too unrealistic. If we closely look at statement in red, this suggest at least 18000 spillover from EB1 to EB2 category this year.
Based on above two scenarios, a) and b), we will update our "May visa Bulletin Prediction" and "Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2011".
Indeed this is a good news for EB2-India and China applicants who are waiting for some visa numbers for long time.
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21 comments:
Do you think all 12,000 will be allocated in May?
hopefully some from eb 4 and 5 will spill up to eb3? or maybe some of the spill from eb1 will make it to eb3? im being hopeful.. what do u think?
Hello! It means the prediction for May will change again. Will it affect the EB3 standing overall like the ROW EB3?
It totally depends if these quoted unused visa numbers are for entire fiscal year or for half year. If it is for entire fiscal year then we might see that only 6000 of these number will used for May-June visa bulletin and 6000 later in last quarter.
If it is for half yearly then these 12000 unused visa numbers will be entirely used for May visa bulletin. Ultimate goal for DOL and USCIS is not to waste visa numbers. It make sense to use these visas as soon as possible so that cases are atleast ready to process before later spillover from other categories would kick in late quarter.
Other school of thought suggests that even though it is yearly unused visa numbers, they would like to progress date as much as possible using these numbers and half yearly spillover that is expected from EB4, EB5 and EB2-ROW. This way they can use visa numbers gingerly until FY 2011. This will also help USCIS to divide work load into remaining months for the fiscal year. Imagine number of cases that had to processed in last quarter if they will wait to use unused visa numbers. With all this mess there is always a chance that some unused visa numbers would trickle down to EB3-ROW if dates are not progressed enough for EB2-IC. Let's see what will happen in coming months. All depends upon how well is the communication between DOL/USCIS.
Anonymous said...
Do you think all 12,000 will be allocated in May?
There is no provision for Fall Up spillover from EB4 and EB5 to EB3. Most of the spillover will be consumed by EB2-IC. But there is always a chance that some numbers may trickle down to EB3-ROW. See above comment
Anonymous said...
hopefully some from eb 4 and 5 will spill up to eb3? or maybe some of the spill from eb1 will make it to eb3? im being hopeful.. what do u think?
Prediction for May visa bulletin will change only for EB2-IC. No change for other categories.
Anonymous said...
Hello! It means the prediction for May will change again. Will it affect the EB3 standing overall like the ROW EB3?
@CM
Well then May bulletin should move EB2 IC to atleast Nov 1 2006 then 12,000 plus additional buffer!
Hi, thanks for providing good insight on Dates movement. With spillover assuming 10000-15000 per year when do you think May 2008 applicants would be able to file 485 in 2012 or 2013?
-Sri
Yes if they will like to use entire 12000 visa numbers this month to build some buffer for FY 2011.
But I still believe (I am always little conservative) they will use only around 3000-4000 visas to move dates to August 2006 for EB2-I for May visa bulletin. I am not even sure if USCIS is prepared for more than that at least for the month of May. If it moves more than that then we can definitely predict huge movement for remaining fiscal year, some where around July 2007.
Use of entire 12000 visas (whenever it will happen) will bring dates to 22 September 2006
Anonymous said...
@CM
Well then May bulletin should move EB2 IC to atleast Nov 1 2006 then 12,000 plus additional buffer!
Sri - Somewhere around Sep 2012. Please note that we still have no concrete numbers for petitioners beyond July 2007. This is solely based on PERM data. It can change as and when we will receive more data in later years.
Correction: Use of entire 12000 visas (whenever it will happen) will bring dates to 08 November 2006 since EB2-C has already used some of it's annual quota and progressed to late July 2006.
Cm.... Waiting for your diligent update to "Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2011 - Employment Based Green Card"
Dear CM:
When do you think a person with Feb'01'07 priority date in EB2 category will be allowed to apply in light of the recent announcements.
Thank you.
For sure before September 2011. See updated Predictions.
Anonymous said...
Dear CM:
When do you think a person with Feb'01'07 priority date in EB2 category will be allowed to apply in light of the recent announcements.
Thank you.
We have updated our EB2 Predictions for this year.
Anonymous said...
seems like this is the best discussion group on this topic i have come across so far! EB2, PD June 2009. CM, when would you expect it to be current? any suggestions appreciated.
Dear CM,
If some one has started for GC processing during March 2011 under EB2, when would you expect it to be current? any suggestions appreciated.
Possible EB-2 Priority Date Movement in the Coming Months
Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 11040563 (posted Apr. 5, 2011)"
"Following-up on his earlier observations on EB-1 demand and "spill-down" to EB-2 reported on InfoNet on March 29, 2011 (InfoNet Doc. No. 11032960), Charlie Oppenheim discussed scenarios for EB-2 movement in the coming months. In preparation of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin, DOS will consider the approximately 12,000 unused EB-1 numbers that will "spill-down" to EB-2, EB-2 demand and possible unused numbers, and will consult with USCIS on its processing potential. A quick look by DOS at this point indicates that there is the possibility for greater advancement of the India EB-2 category than had earlier been thought. Doing so will give DOS better visibility into EB-3 upgrade demand in the pipeline, and will better ensure that all visas allowed annually are used. However, a rapid advance could spur a surge in demand that could impact the cut-off dates later in the year. The May Visa Bulletin, generally issued mid-April, will contain a discussion of visa availability projections for the remainder of the year."
This will definitly move dates for EB2-IC in May Visa Bulletin to 08 October 2006.
@msk
I will usually use a 5 year thumb rule but if we will continue to receive enormous spillover in coming years, It can take as less as 3-4 years.
@msk
I will usually use a 5 year thumb rule but if we will continue to receive enormous spillover in coming years, It can take as less as 3-4 years.
Hello! It means the prediction for May will change again. Will it affect the EB3 standing overall like the ROW EB3?
Dear CM:
When do you think a person with Feb'01'07 priority date in EB2 category will be allowed to apply in light of the recent announcements.
Thank you.
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