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Home › Demand Data for June 2011 Visa Bulletin & Updated Predictions
AOS Demand Data. Green Card June 2011 Predictions Visa Bulletin

Demand Data for June 2011 Visa Bulletin & Updated Predictions

Posted On Tuesday, May 10, 2011 by CM
22 comments
Demand data that will be used for June Visa Bulletin has been released. Please see below the cumulative demand reduction from May 2011 to June 2011. Some of these reductions were as predicted and others were less due to hidden demand (usually newly added cases from CP offices and regular transfer of cases from local offices to National Service Center). Negative (-ve) number indicates increase in demand. Based on the currently released demand data, June visa bulletin prediction would change for some country and categories. Please see our updated visa bulletin predictions below.

Cumulative Reduction in Visa Demand from May to June 2011



Predictions

  • EB3- China could advance to 01 July 2004

  • EB3-Philippines could advance to 22 September 2005. (As EB3-P cannot have cut-off date surpass that of EB3-ROW, predicted cut-off dates are revised)

  • EB3-Mexico could advance to 15 October 2004.

  • EB3-ROW could advance to 22 September 2005. (Due to unknown hidden demand as mentioned above, we have to revise our prediction for EB3-ROW from 1 Oct 2005 to 22 September 2005. Reduction in demand for May was only 1575)

  • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.

  • EB3-India could advance to 22 April 2002.
  • EB2-India would see movement till 15 July 2006 - Since I-485 Inventory suggested that demand for EB2-India from '08 May 06' to '01 July 2006' was 2806 and demand data only reduced by 2875, this suggests that not much upgrade demand was gauged. We still think DOS will be interested in gauging some more demand before moving dates in June visa bulletin by significant amount. We still predict that cut-off dates for EB2-I will move by two weeks and at most by 4-5 weeks. We expect significant movement for EB2-IC in July visa bulletin.

  • EB2-China could advance to 08 August 2006.


June 2011 Demand Data




May 2011 Demand Data
CM
Predictions are based on educated guess and are not guaranteed. Please take with a grain of salt. Always consult a licensed immigration attorney for your specific situation.
Discussion
22 comments
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As of now I am not responding to any comments on cut-off date predictions as we are in process of updating our Green Card calculator. I will reply once our Green Card calculator is updated. In the meantime I will reply ONLY to any other general questions and comments.
aewesome site sir... you are doing a great service to immigrants with your timely analysis.....

hats off to you !
Will updated Green Card Calculator have the EB3 EW category?
"... this suggests that not much upgrade demand was gauged." Could this indicate that the EB3 to EB2 upgrade estimate you were using was too high? So, would that likely push the Sep 2011 bulletin (FYE 2011) cut off date forward from your current estimate of Jan through June 2007 by some months?

Secondly, does the last recession have any impact on the cut off date movement? Since the demand data until July 2007 is based on applicants as of July 2007, is there a possibility that a good number of these people have abandoned their green card processes when they lost their jobs? Or could they have stayed on in the US and continued to wait for the GC while they looked for new jobs? If people have abandoned their GC process would the demand data capture these abandonments or would it overstating demand?
It makes me sad to see that the person in charge of the cut-off dates doesn't know what she/he is doing. For instance, look at EB-3 for Mexico for the May Bulletin, they say they have 0 cases pending prior to January 1, 2005, but yet, the cut-off date for the visa bulletin was September 2004. How can they say they use this data to estimate the cut-off dates? This data is absolutely irrelevant and I'm sure they only publish it to make the immigrant community believe that they know what they are doing. The cut-off dates for the visa buletin are selected arbitrarily and USCIS only "hopes" that it will work out, that's the reason why many countries retrogress as we get closer to the end of the FY.
June bulletin is out and EB2-IC has moved to 15OCT06. Way beyond predictions.
1: What could have cause that?
2: Where will the EB2-I dates move at end of this year i.e. Sept bulletin?
I am glad this blog is being a bit conservative...
So now, we are at 15th Oct 2006. How many months will it take to get to May 2007.

You are doing a great job predicting.. Gives us some hope. Keep up the good work.
Hi CM,

Greetings! Thanks for having time to answer queries here.I have some questions & confusion on this matter.
I am adding a derivative(spouse), I dont know if it can delay my case or let say my priority date to be current,my case is still in NVC, I am under Eb3, feb. 2006 pd.
I am glad we are of any help to immigrant community.

Anonymous said...

aewesome site sir... you are doing a great service to immigrants with your timely analysis.....

hats off to you !
We can give it a shot but I do not think it will be that effective.

Anonymous said...

Will updated Green Card Calculator have the EB3 EW category?
@Pedro Gonzales Upgrade demand estimated could be high but we will know more by next month. Please see our recent post on EB2 Movement based on June visa bulletin.

Abandoned cases are captured in inventory or demand data because USCIS /DOS does not go back to purge this data. Only cases which are upgraded and received GC are removed from inventory. Yes but if Demand data is created that number of visas are not used, these visa are made available for next demand data. This how we see huge jumps in last months of fiscal year.
Yes adding derivative would cause your case to prolong since your husband also would have to be documentarily qualified before they can consider your application as "DQ". If I were you, I would send documents to NVC asap possible. EB3-P PD Feb 2006 will take atleast take more 8-9 months from today. So by the time your dates will be current, you and your husband both can be documentarily qualified.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Greetings! Thanks for having time to answer queries here.I have some questions & confusion on this matter.
I am adding a derivative(spouse), I dont know if it can delay my case or let say my priority date to be current,my case is still in NVC, I am under Eb3, feb. 2006 pd.
Hi CM,

Good evening. My priority date is Dec '06 Eb2 - India and have filed my 485/AOS in July 07. I recently got married and want to include my wife to my GC application when my PD becomes current (been told this is when it can be done).
Please provide you recommendations/advise in this matter

Regards
I would start preparing for your wife's documents from now on so that you can file her case on 1st day when your PD will become current.

If by any chance that your case is approved before receiving her application she can always get green card based on 245(k) or by filing "Follow to Join" application on basis of your approved green card. For FTJ, she has to apply it overseas through consulate.

Ask you lawyer to file her case asap on first day of PD getting current and contest it based of 245(k). 245(k) allows individual to be out of status for 180 days. Good Luck,



Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Good evening. My priority date is Dec '06 Eb2 - India and have filed my 485/AOS in July 07. I recently got married and want to include my wife to my GC application when my PD becomes current (been told this is when it can be done).
Please provide you recommendations/advise in this matter

Regards
@CM

My 485 (EB3I-12/2003) was filed in july07, but couldnt file family's 485 because they were not in country at that time. I now have to keep renewing my H1 to keep my family in status (H4). Its too frustrating to see that there is no law that can help my family live together, should I lose my H1 at any time during next 10yrs, my family has to go back? (hoping my 485 will be current 10yrs later).
You have to wait until your PD will be current. It is sad to see that there is no way you can add your family members to your pending case. I would also ask you to talk to your lawyer if there is a possibility to change your case from AOS to CP. If so you can start working on your family's documents now with NVC so that they can be documentarily qualified and receive visa numbers when your PD will become current. Sometimes doing CP could be advantageous than AOS in such situations. Please talk to your lawyer.

Anonymous said...

@CM

My 485 (EB3I-12/2003) was filed in july07, but couldnt file family's 485 because they were not in country at that time. I now have to keep renewing my H1 to keep my family in status (H4). Its too frustrating to see that there is no law that can help my family live together, should I lose my H1 at any time during next 10yrs, my family has to go back? (hoping my 485 will be current 10yrs later).
You have to wait until your PD will be current. It is sad to see that there is no way you can add your family members to your pending case. I would also ask you to talk to your lawyer if there is a possibility to change your case from AOS to CP. If so you can start working on your family's documents now with NVC so that they can be documentarily qualified and receive visa numbers when your PD will become current. Sometimes doing CP could be advantageous than AOS in such situations. Please talk to your lawyer.

Anonymous said...

@CM

My 485 (EB3I-12/2003) was filed in july07, but couldnt file family's 485 because they were not in country at that time. I now have to keep renewing my H1 to keep my family in status (H4). Its too frustrating to see that there is no law that can help my family live together, should I lose my H1 at any time during next 10yrs, my family has to go back? (hoping my 485 will be current 10yrs later).
@CM

My 485 (EB3I-12/2003) was filed in july07, but couldnt file family's 485 because they were not in country at that time. I now have to keep renewing my H1 to keep my family in status (H4). Its too frustrating to see that there is no law that can help my family live together, should I lose my H1 at any time during next 10yrs, my family has to go back? (hoping my 485 will be current 10yrs later).
Hi CM,

Good evening. My priority date is Dec '06 Eb2 - India and have filed my 485/AOS in July 07. I recently got married and want to include my wife to my GC application when my PD becomes current (been told this is when it can be done).
Please provide you recommendations/advise in this matter

Regards
Hi CM,

Greetings! Thanks for having time to answer queries here.I have some questions & confusion on this matter.
I am adding a derivative(spouse), I dont know if it can delay my case or let say my priority date to be current,my case is still in NVC, I am under Eb3, feb. 2006 pd.
Hi CM,
I am under consular processing EB3 P WITH pd feb 2006 doc qualified last june 2008. How will I know if my dependents are also doc qualified? does it follow that they are already qualified since I am already doc qualified ?? thank you for this wonderful site
thanks and best regards