November Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for FY 2012. Here is the prediction for November 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see
following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa
numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.
November 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Kabayan
k.sh
Thanks for the Nov. predictions, at least we can see 2006 pd's now for Row, Phil. Mexico.
As for me is Feb. 8, 2006, hoping I will be current next VB?
Thanks!!!
Thanks for the predictions.
When do you think Dec 2007 eb3-P will become current. Thanks...
In your analysis for Oct Vb, you have indicated that quarterly spillover estimated in Q1 is about 4425. Will this spillover be give to I+C in Q1 itself or if they will wait till Q3/Q4?
I always thought that spillover took place in later quarters. Can you please clarify ?
Thank you !!!
Thanks for all the help and support you have been providing, we are all so grateful for it.
My PD is Sept 2006, EB2 India. I changed my employer in April 2007 and missed the window .The 485 app filed by my current employer was received on July 5th(Nebraska center) . Do you think I have a chance of getting the approval in the next two months. With the start of the new fiscal year for the USCIS in October, would my chance of getting a visa be like a lottery.
Thank you so much again...
Thanks for the great work, the predictions for EB2I look realistic to me.
Hope I'll be able to file for AOS for the PD of Aug 9th 2007.
https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions#!/petition/allow-seriously-backlogged-eb2eb3-beneficiaries-their-i-140-approved-file-i-485-and-apply-ead-ap/d3D62yTt
I have a question. Been on h1b and currently in my 5th yr .
The first three years of h1b , in 2009 bad recession and I took a job for a few months in Canada while having an inderstanding with my then employer that he would keep my h1b open . one weekend when I drove in to USA my employer told me that he accidentally informed uscis that i'm no longer employed . It seems he did it in May of 2008 and told me first time August, knowing that I immediately applied for H4 since spouse is on h1b with approved 140 . I confronted my employer and he gave me a letter stating that I worked till Aug of 2009. I believe for over 2 months I was technically out of status. Luckily I got h4 approved in nov and the following month I also got a job and new employer coverted me from h4 to h1 successfully. Worked for a year and switched job again and now the new employer transferred h1B .
What is giving me sleepless nights is , my spouse is close to file her I 485 and I along with her will be filing I 485 . As a dependent , I'm worried if they will catch those 2.5 months I was not in status since I applied h4 later . Dont have any pay stubs except the letter given my employer. Please advise . Since that episode I got 2 h4 petitions approved and 2 h1bs approved .
I had a question about my PD. I have a PD of Aug 08 EB2 I, last yr i switched jobs and my current employer has started the GC process again and have labor approved.
There is a very good opportunity at my previous company again thats come up. So if i switch again without applying for I140 at my current place, I should still be able to retain my PD right ?
Will my previous employer need to start the GC process again ?
As always, thanks for ur help. Reply at the earliest much appreciated !!
Thanks
Thanks a lot for your efforts on providing such useful information to everyone. My PD is SEP2007. What are my chances to get current and how long will it take to get actual GC in hand.
Thanks
I'm a secondary / dependent applicant who is looking to file I 485 along with spouse.
Now on my original birth certificate , my mother's middle name is printed incorrectly.
All of my information is accurate. Trying to get this corrected in India seems like an impossibility. Would gurus advise on how I should approach this as I prepare my docs to wait for our EB2 Ind PD 07 dec to become current.
Thanks very much in advance
Any update from your lawyer friend for November visa bulletin?
Thanks for your excellent analysis. My PD is July 20 2007 EB2-I. I filed my 485 during the July 07 fiasco. I don't know if it's pre adjudicated. Assuming that I become current in the Nov bulletin when can I realistically expect to have a GC in hand?
my Pd is sept.2006 do you still think i will be current this fiscal year?hoping to hear from you..
"Please ignore my earlier comment. With change in demand data for EB3 - P in October VB to 13550, this will impact movement for EB3 ROW- M-P for FY 2012. We will have to update and recalculate estimation for FY 2012. Thank you for bringing this to our notice. This is definitely not good news for EB3- ROW. But to do this we will wait for latest I-485 inventory. I really doubt EB3-P inventory went from 5000 to 13500 from June till now for PD until December 2006. If this is true at some point EB3-P has to retrogress. It will be brutal if EB3-P will end up using these many visas in a year."
Good day! if ok with you, can i have your email address. I have some clarifications on CP processing. Thank you.
My Pd is 19th of oct 2006 EB3 .Is it possible for me to be current in fy 2012?
thanks
At this point his law firm does not have any specific update on the movement for the next visa bulletin movement and strategy of DOS. As per him from whatever he has gathered in past few weeks (nothing officially conveyed to them), he believes that “DOS strategically would like not to retrogress cut-off dates for EB2 India and China as long as possible, but rather move dates such that they can intake new demand without using excessive visa numbers than allowed. In retrospective, this means that next bulletin can bring none to one month movement at most, with bigger movement around December and January 2012 visa bulletin, where unused visas from current quarterly spillover and next quarterly spillover could be used rationally. Once that is done, cut-off dates may stall or retrogress based on total demand. Cut-off date for EB3- category will move as posted on the visa bulletin. EB3- ROW, Mexico and Philippines would move together for quite some time. Expected VB released date is Friday, October 7th”
CM – Information is posted as shared. Please take it at your own discretion. Good Luck.
What is your take on this information from your friend?
a) Was this 2.5 month the only time you were out of status? If yes you are covered by 245(k) as you changed your ststus to H4 in timely manner before 180 days.
b) After being out of status and after h4 or h1b approval you left country and came back with visa stamped and was allowed at port of entry, then you should not worry about anything. Last legal entry to US should be valid for I-485 approval.
I am interpreting this as November visa bulletin will just help to slow down the movement to get enough demand that can be handled by Q1 spillover and some annual quota, and then do big movement in December and January that can be handled by remaining Q1 and annual quota, and new Q2 spillover. This way by January we will receive first (may be final) wave of huge demand that will convert into real demand data only in March-April 2012. By that time DOS will have hold on estimated later half year's spillover to decide on probable movement or retrogression thus moving dates just once in a year. Good thing with this strategy is Cut-off dates will not retrogress and USCIS can get real hold on spillover and could use visas wisely. This will also give USCIS chance to concentrate on other categories for first 4-5 months of the FY 2012. Fallacy to this whole method is that USCIS will have to be efficient through out the year and ensure cases are adjudicated atleast until July 2012 .
Personally, I will prefer DOS moves dates next two VBs and get as much demand as possible and retrogress dates in January and just not worry about it. Then USCIS/DOS can use visas based on demand as it will come like FY 2011.
"A little rule, a little sway, HE can make everyone's day" :)
Thank you.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Just some observations about EB3-P.
The Demand Data has always shown that EB3-P has high Demand from 2006 onwards.
In the original Demand Data figures from March 2010, the figure was 11,700 for CY2006 itself, which has now risen to 12,600.
The USCIS Inventory alone is a poor predictor for EB3-P because they already have a high CP usage which seems set to increase even more.
The reason for this IMO is that a high % of EB3-P are represented by Nurses, Physical Therapists etc, who do not qualify for H1B and therefore have no option but to CP.
The NVC waiting list for 2010 http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf shows 44,903 EB3-P applicants waiting for CP. This is almost unchanged from the 2009 figure of 45,331.
It is perhaps slightly surprising that so many cases remain from CY2006, since 50k visas were recaptured for Schedule A and they were Current from July 2005 through October 2006.
Possibly, processing times were so long back then that few cases with 2006 PD were able to benefit. When the Category retrogressed in Nov 2006, it moved to 01OCT05, so maybe that is a clue.
I hope that helps with your further analysis.
this is probably the old data.
Check the date .. it says sept 8th...
Thanks,
Kumar
Any comments on the demand data used for November?
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Demand data used for Nov VB is out!
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Based on this data, do you think that a PD of Aug 9th 2007 could become current for EB2I in the Nov VB?
Is it normal for such a status on my wife's profile? Thanks
Demand Data released:http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
looks like 5600 is allocated in October itself, would like to see your analysis
If they will really end up using 5600 annual quota for approving October cases then this would mean movement for rest of the year will only based on available quarterly spillover. This may not be good because then this mean that next movement will only happen as our friend suggested i.e. two big movement in Dec and Jan & then retrogression until July-August.
We will know in few weeks what DOS strategy is.
a) If these visa numbers were really allocated for Oct approvals then we should expect no movement next VB and we have to wait when qtrly spillover will be available.
b) If numbers where just removed to justify the movement for intake for FY 2012 and those numbers will reappear in next few demand data, then we should expect some big leap-ass movement in Nov VB.
If it does move to Mid-08 can we expect the approval in FY12 or have to wait till FY13?
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_Nov2011.pdf
CM,cannot wait for your comments on this.
What does this movement in November implies for the rest of this year. My PD is March 2009....wondering how fast the dates will move for the rest of the year or we should expect retrogression soon?
When would you be posting detailed analysis of Nov Visa Bulletin.
Are u traveling? We are all waiting for your analysis on Nov Visa Bulletin. Great Work So Far!
So far for 2005 for EB3-P, assumption of 30% CP demand month to month has really worked out well to convert data from inventory to total demand. For all this time I was not paying close attention to Demand data for EB3-P for CY 2006 and hence I totally neglected 12000 figure from demand data. It is very apparent now that CP demand for CY 2006 is no where close to 30% or LO has still not completed transferring all cases to Service Centers.
This will definitely affect overall EB3 ROW movement. At this rate July 2006 is also a challenge. I am just hoping to see next inventory so that those number can be rationally used to estimate CP demand.
You will receive GC around April- July 2012.
Thank you very much
my i 140 approved on one company ,PD may 2009,EB2 I
If i would like to change my company & my new employer transfers H1 and willing to do PERM processing,will my old PD 2009 persists or will there be a new PD. How will this affect my getting GC at the earliest.
Thanks in advance for all your support.
Thank you.
MY PD is July 31 2007 and I already filed 485 in 2007, when can i expect my GC? I am going to file 485 for my wife in Nov, when can she expect her GC or EAD?