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Home › December 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category
AOS Employment-Based FY 2012 Green Card I-485 Immigration Predictions Visa Bulletin

December 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Posted On Saturday, October 22, 2011 by CM
146 comments
December Visa Bulletin will be the third bulletin for FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for December 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.


December 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions
  • EB3- China could advance to 08 September 2004
  • EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 15-Jan-2006.
  • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
  • EB3-India could advance to 01 August 2002.
  • EB2-India and EB2-China could see 3-6 months in coming bulletins.  It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Movement is solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake new demand for FY 2012. At this time, total movement as huge as 3-6 months in one or two steps in coming month(s) cannot be discarded before we may see retrogression. In next few bulletins, dates can move anywhere from Jan 2008 – June 2008. Although DOS warned about stall, they may (should) not stall current movement as such movement may not consume visas until these applications will become documentarily qualified.
Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.














CM
Predictions are based on educated guess and are not guaranteed. Please take with a grain of salt. Always consult a licensed immigration attorney for your specific situation.
Discussion
146 comments
Share your priority date, category and country - CM or the community will respond.
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Share your PD, category and country. The community will respond.
Hello Sir,
Im on EB2-I with PD 02/2007. When can i expect to file I-485? thanks
Balu
my PD Nov 15 EB 2. India. What are the changes of becoming current
It will be in FY2013.
Hello CM,

Thanks for the December VB predictions, I am crossing my fingers, hoping next VB my pd will be current, Feb. 8, 2006, what do think CM?
Thanks a ton!!
Dear CM
My Priority Data is 22-May-2008, EB2 India. What are the chances of becoming current.

Thanks a lot!!
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
EB2 and EB3 PERM database now available for reference. Check relevant menu item above.
Good morning, my priority day is February 2007 EB-Row. When can I expect to be current? Thank you.
When can I expect to be current, February 2007, EB3-Row?
Thanks for your valuable insight. My PD is 28 Aug 2008 , do you think i need to wait for spill over or till FY 2013 ?
CM, any update from your friend on the next VB ? Very eager to know what your source has to say for the next.

Also wats your gut feeling for the next vb , know you already gave a range but wanted to pick your thoughts for the next vb .
CM. So far in the month of Oct there has been 115 approvals from Trackit.
Is CO doing quarterly spillover ?
CM Thanks for your time & effort on this.

Based on your prediction could you estimate when will EB2 with PD Feb 2008 become current?.

Thanks again.
CM,

Thanks for your valuable insight.

when do u think will December 2011 VB released? and any predictions for this coming bulletin whether we can see movement in EB2-I and if so can we expect huge movement?my PD is mid of December 2007 EB2-I. Thank you.
MY PD is May 2008 ,

Any idea when my dates will become current ,
I am happier when you give some prediction about EB2 dates, even if that’s totally wrong. Playing safe is not that attractive !!
anywhere between 2 to 14months
CM,
485 inventory realesed
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20October%2001%202011.pdf
On what basis you are saying 2 to 14 Months ,Was that a just a guess based on the last few months movement.
CM , eagerly awaiting your rise to make sense of this inventory. So far it does not sound good . My feeling is it might move by 2months or might even retrogress in the next VB ? What are your thoughts.
Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (October 26, 2011)

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/
CM, Do you think your estimate of PWMB is on the higher side than the actual 485 numbers in inventory report?
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
That law group is very reliable. In 2010, after similar meeting at DC this law group gave their estimations for EB and FB category, and they were very much followed for rest of the year.

This confirms that 3-6 month movement for EB2-IC in coming bulletin(s) is plausible and guaranteed. EB3-ROW will only see 3-4 week movement for rest of the year.
Hi CM,

Thanks for building this great Blog! I'm fan of your blog!

Just wondering, if bill H.R. 3012 becomes law then how much time does it takes to my GC? My PD is EB2- 2010.

Keep the good work going!

Raj
I did not put Month. My PD date is March 2010
Here is good news for EB2 IC. Priority Date may move to Mar 2008. See murthy.com for this flash news

NewsFlash! EB2 Cutoff of March 1, 2008 Expected in December!
Posted 27.Oct.2011
The cutoff date for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China is expected to advance to at least March 1, 2008 in the December 2011 Visa Bulletin. This prediction is reliable, as we received it directly from Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa and Control Division, U.S. Department of State. The continued forward movement will allow for many additional individuals to pursue the final stage of their permanent residence (green card) cases in December 2011. More details and predictions for the future will be provided for MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.
CM,

Thanks for your effort and time.Could you guess the chances of getting greencard next month as my case is in Texas Service center.PD:july 27th 2011 and it is current.Filed in july 2007.Your response is very much appreciated.
Sorry PD is july 27th 2007 India.
what do you think CM about EB3 in 2012? will they move 3-4 weeks or lower than this ?
Based on Oppenheimers update by Capitol immigration folks,is it true that eb2 India can move to aug 2008 in the next 2-4 months...
CM - Thank you so much for providing valuable information in this blog. my priority date is sep 2007 became current in this month's bulletin and I am due for my h1 extension at end of next year Oct2012. By when can i expect GC in hand considering I have 1 year left. Thanks and god bless you
CM

My PD is 22-May-2008, Can I expect to be current in next 2 months. Appreciate your response.

Thanks
Shashi
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
You have god chances
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I will wait until July end before filing extension. You may receive GC around that time.
CM, I'm from Philippines my pd is June 2006 EB3 category, when will I expect o be current? thank you
Got an RFE in green card process..
A review of the Service record indicates that you no longer reside in the same geographical location as the underlaying Form I-140 immigrant visa petitioner(XXX INC) and/or the job location specified by your intended permanent employer.

When my labor was filed the location was Irvine,CA but I never livied in Irvine, CA. I am living in Atlanta,GA. Could you please let me know if this RFE cause rejection of my GC. I can pack things and go to India.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
First of all do not panic. We will need to know more details about your case.

a) When your labor was applied was your company in Irvine CA and you were working as consulatant for them in other locations?

b) Was this application filed in July 2007 and you are now 180 days over receipt of application? If yes, are you still working for same employer ?
If not working for same employer and your job duty is same at new employer file AC21 with new Employment Verification letter.
b) If working for same employer, ask your employer to give you letter saying that job is for future employment and on approval you will start working at Irvine CA location. If you are consultant ask him to define that in employment letter saying although you are based on Irvine CA, you need to work at client site in Atlanta GA time to time. Make sure he mentions that you are full time employee under him.

c) If you are working for different employer and job, and your LC filing company is still ready to take you abck and give you employment verification letter stating that they will hire you to work from Irvine CA on GC approval, that will also work.

d) Lastly and more importantly talk to your attorney and if you do not have one, hire one. He will be able to handle it for you. These are common RFEs.

Good Luck.
its a wild question, my PD is Mar 2010, EB2I. any guess when it will become current.

Thanks, GI
Thanks a Lot CM for your quick respnse.

I am tensed... Please find my inputs below

a) Yes. I working as a consultant for them in other locations. Mainly in Atlanta, GA, Augusta, GA and Memphis TN.
b) I filed this application in July 2007 and still working for the same employer.
b) I am consultant.
C) Not applicable.
d) I have attorney. He is asking the question below to my company.
he is to be employed in the current position and at the location(Irvine,CA) he was given permission to be so employed in this location and Why is he not now so engaged in this location.

How difficult to get approval this RFE.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
It totally depends on what your employer will state reason for why you are not employed in Irvine CA. It all comes to employer-employee relation and he with the attorney should be able to handle it. This is very common with all the consultants where they are always at client site. Does your paycheck generate at office at CA? As long as your company can handle this with saying you will be employed in Irvine CA on GC approval (as GC is for future) you should be fine. It all depends on how qualified your attorney is and if he has experience with such RFE before.
Hello CM, I am EB3 Row Feb 15, 2006 I am assuming I should be current within the next 3 bulletin. HR 3012 if it was to pass are we looking at another 3 - 5 mths before such a bill is finalize. Keep up the good work.
Thanks CM for you quick response.

The company was generating paystubbs from IRVINE CA 92612 till 2009. The company payroll operations were moved to SAN JOSE CA 95110. They are still having operations from Irvine CA office.
CM Thanks for your time & effort on this.

Based on your prediction could you estimate when will EB2 with PD Feb 2008 become current?.

Thanks again.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
next month most likely.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I would say minimum 2-3 months more if bill will ever pass. Once congress goes on break, it is all over and you may ahve to start all over again.

You may be current in 2 months but if bill passes by then, there may be one or two month retrogression for this year. Hopefully you will GC before anything like this happen.
thanks CM
Hi CM,My PD is March 26,2008 IB2-India any idea when can I get my PD current..Appreciate your response.
CM,

When do you think will the December Bulletin be released? can we expect it sometime this week?
Hi Cm,
Please tell us when will May,2009 Eb2 I will become current.
Thank u so much.
CM, PD dec 07 worst case scenario , how long till GC at hand and also best case scenario please ..
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Hopefully in a month or two.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
In past December VB had released on 2nd week of November. Mostly that will be the case, only exception will be if demand data is released this Thursday or Friday, then VB will COME on this Friday.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
If nothing changes 2 -3 years from today will receive GC. You may be current in dec 2013.
good day cm! i would like to ask my pd jan 30, 2006 eb3 phil...when i can possibly be current? if the bill will pass is there any possibility i would be affected ?thank you so much...dianne
Hi CM,

My PD is Sep 1st 2008 EB2 India. whan can i expect my PD to be current.
#
Hi CM,

I really appreciate the time and effort you spent to keep this website relevant and reliable. I hope USCIS will hire you as their staff. This is a much needed help they are not providing even though they charge a lot for all the applications.

My priority date is Nov 25, 2008. Can you give me an optimistic prediction on when it will be current?

Thanks
Thomas
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I would think around June-July 2012
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
August 2008 is less likely but nothing is impossible.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I believe 3-4 weeks is more likely.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I believe TSC will start seeing some EB2-IC July filers approval around last week of November or in first-second week of December.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Please see our article on estimation - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/10/hr-3012-estimation-of-eb-category-cut.html
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Actual inventory is only until October 01, 2011. We will see more such cases added in demand data month to month.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I would consider your opinion for next predictions even though it wild educated guess.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Agree with WMC27 if you are EB2-IC. Most likely in 2-3 months.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
It is too early to do quarterly spillover over. He may very well be using annual allocations. Most likely quarterly spillover will be seen around December-January period.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Currently I believe until FY 2013.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
In next 2-3 months very high. If not then you have to wait until FY 2013.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Feb 2006 will take atleast Jan VB to become current.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Optimistically early FY 2013. Realistically even later than that based on spillover EB2-IC will receive each year.
Hi CM,

Need your guidance and expert advice on this. I am EB3 and been scheduled for consular interview (along with my husband and children) end of next month. My problem is, my daughter, 20 y/o, (unmarried) will give birth most probably by first week next month. Can we bring her newborn child to US to migrate? I understand that it is possible to bring a child if he/she was born after a consular interview but our case is different in which the child was born before our consular interview. Please enlighten us.

many thanks always,

iaben
Hi CM,

My PD is 27th July 2007 india NSC. When can i expect GC?
I would appreciate ur reply.

Thanks,
Rahul
Hello CM,

I am from the Phil PD is Dec 2008, can you give an estimate as to when our PD will be current. EB3, THANKS
Hi CM,

MY PD DEC 2008 EB2 India,When can i expect EAD,GC???
Hi CM.my pd is march 26,2009 EB2 india, when my pd wiil be current??
I cant believe this..when eb2 is moving so fast..how can it take 2 more years( 2013 ) for EB2 I ,2009 to become current & when its going to be March 2008 in this months VB ! Do u say that i will be getting my ead in 2013 ?
Please clarify,CM . Thank u for all your support.
VK,

Though the dates might move to mid of 2008, as indicated by Mr.O, they will be retrogressed based on demand. So the chances of 2009 becoming current are in FY13.
Hi CM, i'm from phils and my PD is may 2006. can u give me an estimate as to when mine would be current? thanks and more power!
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I think you will need to talk to NVC about it and they may be able to give you more specifics on this. I think you will need to get new-born documentarily qualified. Talk to your attorney he may have handled such case previously. Worst case I will take new-born for interivew, if no contact/ information is established from NVC. This is complicated and please consult lawyer.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I think it is just matter of days before you will be greened.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
3-4 years at least from today.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
EAD - early-mid FY 2013.
GC- late FY 2013 or later.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I would think some time in late FY 2013- early FY 2014.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Agree with Anonymous... Dates will retrogress.and hence GC wont be there until next 3 year but you may receive EAD some time in FY 2013.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
July-August 2012
CM, if ever there was a time to know when the VB might be released, it this one :) please can your lawyer friend have some idea when he thinks VB may be released. of course its always with grain of salt, but begging to know if he has any idea at all, it would be very helpful.
Thanks CM,

So, probably by this december 2011--I will have a Blessful Christmas!pd eB3 Feb. 8, 2006.
Hoping and praying.
Gr8 work! CM
My priority date in June 2008 (EB2I). Do you think I will have EAD by summer of 2012?
Thanks!!
Hi CM

my pd is may 2007 eb3 when will i expect the dates to be current

regards.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Talked to him. He has no information on it but he believes it will be Thursday as DOS mentioned about getting some information on filings from last 2 bulletins before making any move.

Personally I do not know how they going to figure this out. May be from number of incoming applications and all but to segregate to specifics to EB2-IC level, it needs some intensive labor.
CM, Appreciate you taking the time out to answer this question. What do you think is the probability of a EB2 India PD of May 6 2008 becoming current in the next 2-3 months?
Dear CM,
My PD is Mar 2007 & applied for I485, AP & EAD on Sep 15th 2011 in Texas Service Center. When do you think I will get my GC.
CM, Thanks for your work.
My PD is current with EB2 ROW. I applied my GC on Aug 20th 2011 in Texas Service Center. When can I expect my GC?
...would that be the same esti. for ROW?
what abt ROW with the same PD as Jerome?
Hi CM, My PD is Dec 7, 2007 EB2 India. Can i expect to be current in Dec Bulletin
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Demand Data is out for December Bulletin.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

EB2
Demand Prior To China India ROW Grand Total
January 1, 2007 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2008 25 50 0 75
January 1, 2011 75 150 75 300

EB3
Countries China India Mexico PhilippinesTotal
January 1, 2003 25 0 4,575 0 0 4,600
January 1, 2004 50 25 16,225 0 0 16,300
January 1, 2005 75 1,175 29,600 0 0 30,850
January 1, 2006 950 2,900 38,300 100 350 42,600
January 1, 2007 22,225 4,000 48,975 1,925 12,950 90,075
January 1, 2011 30,200 4,550 53,100 2,750 15,400 106,000
Hi CM, I am sorry i don't know how to understand Demand Data. If possible can you please explain in layman words...
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Demand data just tells you how many documentarily qualified individuals with PD mentioned are ready to use visa numbers.

Based on released demand data -

EB3-ROW-M-P will still mvoe anywhere from 8 Jan 2006-15Jan 2006

EB3-I and EB3-C as predicted above.

EB2-IC will move to 1 Mar 2008 or more.

All other categories current.

EB3 -ROW-M-P will move to 8 Jan -
How come only 300 qualified individuals before Jan 1 2011? It doesn't mean only 300 applied for GC in EB2 I before Jan 1 2011, is it? And if not, how it can be even 300 as dates are still Nov 2007? These numbers are like Einstein equations, so simple to read but so hard to interpret.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
krookbond - Only people who has filed for Eb2-IC is until Nov 2007. Their application just reached hence they are not documentarily qualfied for visas yet. Once they will become qualified that number will go high. All I can say is going demand data will not mean anythng for EB2-IC until some time or even beyond that.
CM,
Demand data for nov bulletine was 8350 cases. Now its reduced to 300 cases. Does that mean backlog is getting cleared for before nov 2007? you had mentioned regtrogression can happen till june 07 in worst case. Does this demand data reduce extent of retrogression may be only till nov 07?
Thanks.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
it may be retrogression will never happen just dates will not move. It all depends how demand data will shape up in next 2-4 months for now. Lets oberve it closely for few more months.
Thanks CM!
I hope they dont retrogress! no movement for some time is okay!!
I am addicted to your blog now and I am not even close to the current PDs!!! Keep up the good work..
Hope That bill everyone is talking about passes soon :)
My priority date is jan30,2006 eb3 philippines. What's your estimate? Thanks!
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
next bulletin (Jan) my friend.
Hello CM,
Any idea on when we can expect Dec 2011 visa bulletin? My PD is March 14, 2008 EB2. I hope it goes beyond march 1, 2008
Hi CM,
thanks for the details... Eb2 I we see only 150.. then May 2009 PD when we will get a chance,is it still 2013,with this current data ?
Thank u for all the support.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I really have no clue. May be tomorrow at 8 AM if he is not struck in traffic. Isn't he having fun keeping everyone wait ? :)
Do they post at 8am regularly :)
Hi CM,
Thank you for your blog. My PD is February 5, 2006. Whats your estimate? Thank you.
Dec Bulletin released
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
Visa bulletin released . March 15 2008 is cut off date ind eb2
I dont see at http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Thank you all for posting visa bulletin from mumbai consulate. I a, g
Ad that dates moved as expected. Congratulation to all who became current. Cheers!!!
Try now
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5603.html
CM,

Will this movement change the target date (Jun-08) of applicants who could file for EAD.
Dear CM:

A technical question after filing 485, when will applications become documentarily qualified?
How can I know when and whether I have become documentarily qualified?

Thank you.

EB2C
CM - you are awesome...
Once the date becomes current, when should the I-485 application reach USCIS? I heard that it should reach only between Dec 1, 2011 till Dec 31, 2011.
Even if it one day early then it will be declined. Is this really true???
My PD is Oct 2008 EB2 India,When can i expect EAD?
CM, could you please a post of poll to estimate number of folks who have more than 1 PERM filed for them? This will help to determine the correct demand for the GC calculator. EB3-EB2 poll captures some of this double counting but, there are quite a few folks that have jumped EB2-EB2 because they left company etc and were not able to take their PDs with them.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Great idea KD, we will do that for you. That will be great data point to have.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I plan to sum up the VB movement in next article. I will try to capture this in there. Regards.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
that's true. Application will be rejected. Do not rush the applications. Even if it will reach on 2nd, you will be in.
Thanks :)
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
For AOS applications, it will take atleast 4-6 months and more depending upon service center you apply and number of applications are still pending before you. After few months (4-5) you can take an infopass and visit the local ASC to see if you are documentarily qualified (or adjudicated to approve). For EB2-IC in current scenario when dates are not retrogressed, it does not mean anything. Documentarily qualified applicants will be approved as soon as they qualify through IVAMS.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I believe so.
Dear CM:

I don't understand IVAMS.

Do you mean GC will be issued right away if no retrogression?

I filed with TSC. Is there processing time difference between difference service center?

Thank you.

EB2C
Thanks CM for your excellent prediction for EB3 ROW-M-P!
CM my PD is Feb 2007,EB3ROW. What do you think when it will be current
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Amen!!!
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I would say you have 50-50 chances. It will be in next two bulletin or we have to wait until some time.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
What is your country of charge ability? If EB3-I, then it will be long wait.. more than 15 years unless law would change otherwise. EB3-ROW, you may have to wait 2 years.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
So fair I believe is good. Demand Data is crucial for next bulletin.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I believe around March 2012. TSC is still processing April-May 2011 cases. Such a slacker.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Jan-Feb 2012, I believe.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Yes Sir.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Next month for EB3-ROW.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I am not sure yet. It totally depends how dates will move in next two VB and where they end up in summer 2012. We will know more after retrogression.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
There are currently two different procedures for ordering visa numbers from the Department of State: by fax and through IVAMS.


(A) Ordering by Fax .


Offices can order a visa number by sending a fax listing the applicant's country of chargeability, preference classification symbol, priority date, and A-number to the Visa Control Office. While visa numbers can be requested at any time, the Visa Control Office can only respond during normal business hours. A sample fax format is contained in Appendix 23-7.


(B) Ordering Through IVAMS (formerly known as INSAMS) .


The Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System (IVAMS) was deployed to all USCIS Field Offices in 2002. Offices using IVAMS are given a special card which (when passed through a reader) allows them direct Internet access into the Visa Control Office's computer system. The visa number is requested on-line and issued instantaneously. Unlike the fax system, IVAMS is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. IVAMS is now the primary means to order visa numbers. The fax option is used as a backup.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Thank you for your kind words.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
At least year or little more from today.
Please, why do you omit EB3ROW Other Workers?
My PD is March 2007 -EB3Row Other Workers - what do you think about it?
Please!
Hello CM,
My priority date is May 17.2007 - EB-3 , ROW ( Czech Republic).
Can you please give me an optimistic estimate on when it will be current.
Thank you for your time!
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
We can try to estimate it but will be less accurate with estimation. in all Other workers cannot receive more than 5000 visas. It will take at least 2-3 years more to receive GC.
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
Optimistically you will be current in 2 years from today.
Thank you CM very much.
It is sad. I thought that is no more than 1 year.
5000 visas not 10000 ?
CM_USNonImmigrants
#
I was under impression earlier that it is 10,000 but recently looking at demand data, I figures it is 5000. DO not know when this changed.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

See this excerpt from demand data - "**The EW category is currently entitled to no more than 5,000 of this total."